Keeping Posey fresh for the stretch drive

[ElJimador]

A bit of research this morning from Posey's game log on baseball-reference. It was my impression that the more days in a row Posey caught the more his hitting suffered, presumably from fatigue. Sure enough the numbers seem to bear that out.

Consecutive days of catching (beginning after an off day or game at 1B):

Days 1-2: .394/.440/.576 (1.016 ops) in 25 G, 109 PA
Days 3+: .260/.318/.429 (.747 ops) in 20 G, 85 PA

Now of course its possible these numbers have nothing to do w/fatigue and this is just random SSS. But I think we have to be aware of the fact that Posey is still fairly new to catching so it wouldn't be that surprising if the grind of being in the squat several days in a row was still something he was adapting to. And from the perspective of Posey's development, if catching him more would help him build up his endurance, I'm all for that, even if it hurts his numbers in the short term. The problem is that the Giants are fighting for a playoff spot and need as much production as they can get from everyone right now. So how do you balance those things?

It's not as easy as just breaking up Posey's starts at C by giving him a few more at 1B instead, because even a dog tired Posey is still a better hitter than Eli Whiteside. But I'm afraid if they don't give him more days of behind the plate that he might get really worn down and we could see his numbers tail off badly towads the end of the season. So I'm not sure there really is any better solution but that we're going to have to see more of Whiteside.

I think for next season the Giants should think seriously about bringing Sandoval back behind the plate to catch maybe 1/4 of the games when Posey needs a day off. I'm just skeptical that would be an option for the rest of this season if Sandoval hasn't been preparing for it.

What do you guys think?

 

[SFGRTB]

It could be fatigue, but it's all part of the process of catching everyday.

I think a bigger issue is that Pablo is probably going to have to be moved from 3B. His throwing has been terrible all year and since June or so, he has been hesitant to throw the long way to first. I think he knows he's off, but doesn't want to admit it.

Watch him closely and you'll know what I mean.

What this causes though is that if he needs to be moved to 1B, does Huff go to the OF where his D will suffer over the course of the season? And where does Belt fit in? They've been trying him in the OF, but I'm hearing their not sold on that. Then what about 3B? There would be a hole there again.

Bottom line, Pablo needs to fix his throwing accuracy issues for the sake of the franchise.

 

[calsnowskier]

On the surface, I am hesitent to move Panda back to the 2. He has struggled this season, so we need to keep his game as simple as possible so he can concentrate on getting back on path (or staying on path right now).

However, having him catch 1 or 2 days a week adds a LOT of flexibility to the lineup and will likely keep Posey fresh longer into the season and prolong his career. This would allow for more flexibilty in FAs that the team looks at and where Belt would be able to play.

 

[ElJimador]

It could be fatigue, but it's all part of the process of catching everyday.

I think a bigger issue is that Pablo is probably going to have to be moved from 3B. His throwing has been terrible all year and since June or so, he has been hesitant to throw the long way to first. I think he knows he's off, but doesn't want to admit it.

Watch him closely and you'll know what I mean.

What this causes though is that if he needs to be moved to 1B, does Huff go to the OF where his D will suffer over the course of the season? And where does Belt fit in? They've been trying him in the OF, but I'm hearing their not sold on that. Then what about 3B? There would be a hole there again.

Bottom line, Pablo needs to fix his throwing accuracy issues for the sake of the franchise.

I think you're overreacting to a very small sample. Sandoval has 6 throwing errors which is average among qualified 3B. His fielding % is also average and his UZR though barely below average is improved from last year. Granted, it sucks that his error wednesday probably cost the Giants the game. But I don't see any pressing need to move Sandoval off 3B because of his defense.

 

[filosofy29]

A bit of research this morning from Posey's game log on baseball-reference. It was my impression that the more days in a row Posey caught the more his hitting suffered, presumably from fatigue. Sure enough the numbers seem to bear that out.

Consecutive days of catching (beginning after an off day or game at 1B):

Days 1-2: .394/.440/.576 (1.016 ops) in 25 G, 109 PA
Days 3+: .260/.318/.429 (.747 ops) in 20 G, 85 PA

Now of course its possible these numbers have nothing to do w/fatigue and this is just random SSS. But I think we have to be aware of the fact that Posey is still fairly new to catching so it wouldn't be that surprising if the grind of being in the squat several days in a row was still something he was adapting to. And from the perspective of Posey's development, if catching him more would help him build up his endurance, I'm all for that, even if it hurts his numbers in the short term. The problem is that the Giants are fighting for a playoff spot and need as much production as they can get from everyone right now. So how do you balance those things?

It's not as easy as just breaking up Posey's starts at C by giving him a few more at 1B instead, because even a dog tired Posey is still a better hitter than Eli Whiteside. But I'm afraid if they don't give him more days of behind the plate that he might get really worn down and we could see his numbers tail off badly towads the end of the season. So I'm not sure there really is any better solution but that we're going to have to see more of Whiteside.

I think for next season the Giants should think seriously about bringing Sandoval back behind the plate to catch maybe 1/4 of the games when Posey needs a day off. I'm just skeptical that would be an option for the rest of this season if Sandoval hasn't been preparing for it.

What do you guys think?

I think it might be filling one hole only to make another one ElJ. What happens if Pablo goes into a funk with hitting the days he catches or tires him out more for the rest of the regular season by being in the crouch. While I do think your analysis may be spot on (although admittedly sss), I'd vote (rightly or wrongly) to keep doing what they've been doing.

 

[ElJimador]

On the surface, I am hesitent to move Panda back to the 2. He has struggled this season, so we need to keep his game as simple as possible so he can concentrate on getting back on path (or staying on path right now).

However, having him catch 1 or 2 days a week adds a LOT of flexibility to the lineup and will likely keep Posey fresh longer into the season and prolong his career. This would allow for more flexibilty in FAs that the team looks at and where Belt would be able to play.

I understand your hesitation about asking Sandoval to catch again part time however I kind of think this slump this year argues for it. I think the less he's thinking about his hitting, the better he hits. In his slump (which I'm pretty confident he's out of now) he was so deep inside his own head he couldn't get out. If every few games he has to think about all the things a catcher has to think about, I'm not sure it would be as easy for him to get lost in his own thoughts like that.

 

[SFGRTB]

I think you're overreacting to a very small sample. Sandoval has 6 throwing errors which is average among qualified 3B. His fielding % is also average and his UZR though barely below average is improved from last year. Granted, it sucks that his error wednesday probably cost the Giants the game. But I don't see any pressing need to move Sandoval off 3B because of his defense.

It just seems like he is hesitant to throw. He has had quite a few throws in the dirt and up high that have been saved. Maybe I'm just overreacting and have not seens as many 3Bmen often enough.

I've really only seen Pedro Feliz and Eric Chavez play 3rd consistantly, who were both slick at 3rd before Sandoval took over and I stopped watching the A's.

And, at the topic at hand, it would be nice if they kept Pablo fresh at catching because I agree that it could extend Posey's carrer and mean less Whiteside. It's always nice to have flexability.

 

[ElJimador]

I think it might be filling one hole only to make another one ElJ. What happens if Pablo goes into a funk with hitting the days he catches or tires him out more for the rest of the regular season by being in the crouch. While I do think your analysis may be spot on (although admittedly sss), I'd vote (rightly or wrongly) to keep doing what they've been doing.

Well the Sandoval idea was for next year anyway. Sticking to the rest of this season, do you think the balance of time between Posey and Whiteside at catcher is correct?

And as for the future, if they're not going to bring Sandoval back behind the plate I do hope they will find someone else to be Posey's backup. Whiteside is probably going to make a great coach someday but as many starts as the backup catcher gets on any team, it really would be nice to have somebody who could hit just a little bit more.

 

[tzill]

A bit of research this morning from Posey's game log on baseball-reference. It was my impression that the more days in a row Posey caught the more his hitting suffered, presumably from fatigue. Sure enough the numbers seem to bear that out.

Consecutive days of catching (beginning after an off day or game at 1B):

Days 1-2: .394/.440/.576 (1.016 ops) in 25 G, 109 PA
Days 3+: .260/.318/.429 (.747 ops) in 20 G, 85 PA

Now of course its possible these numbers have nothing to do w/fatigue and this is just random SSS. But I think we have to be aware of the fact that Posey is still fairly new to catching so it wouldn't be that surprising if the grind of being in the squat several days in a row was still something he was adapting to. And from the perspective of Posey's development, if catching him more would help him build up his endurance, I'm all for that, even if it hurts his numbers in the short term. The problem is that the Giants are fighting for a playoff spot and need as much production as they can get from everyone right now. So how do you balance those things?

It's not as easy as just breaking up Posey's starts at C by giving him a few more at 1B instead, because even a dog tired Posey is still a better hitter than Eli Whiteside. But I'm afraid if they don't give him more days of behind the plate that he might get really worn down and we could see his numbers tail off badly towads the end of the season. So I'm not sure there really is any better solution but that we're going to have to see more of Whiteside.

I think for next season the Giants should think seriously about bringing Sandoval back behind the plate to catch maybe 1/4 of the games when Posey needs a day off. I'm just skeptical that would be an option for the rest of this season if Sandoval hasn't been preparing for it.

What do you guys think?

Great post, EJ and thanks for the research. My first impression is that once we get up to 100 ABs, stats take on a little bit more weight for me. Second, I really like the idea of FatPanda getting behind the dish once a week to spell Posey -- he always seemed like a competent receiver to me, and he's nimble enough to play the position well.

 

[tzill]

I think you're overreacting to a very small sample. Sandoval has 6 throwing errors which is average among qualified 3B. His fielding % is also average and his UZR though barely below average is improved from last year. Granted, it sucks that his error wednesday probably cost the Giants the game. But I don't see any pressing need to move Sandoval off 3B because of his defense.

I agree, but for next year I'd definitely think long and hard about bringing Huff back, as DeRosa is going to see some time at 3b (maybe a lot of time) which would push Panda to 1b/C. I'm not saying we pass on Huff necessarily, but we need to factor DeRosa in. Also, I'm not sure if we bring UUU back either, depending on how mgt feels about Fontenot/DeRosa at SS.

A LOT of moving pieces for 2011...one thing seems clear: Pat will not be back.

 

[SFGRTB]

I agree, but for next year I'd definitely think long and hard about bringing Huff back, as DeRosa is going to see some time at 3b (maybe a lot of time) which would push Panda to 1b/C. I'm not saying we pass on Huff necessarily, but we need to factor DeRosa in. Also, I'm not sure if we bring UUU back either, depending on how mgt feels about Fontenot/DeRosa at SS.

A LOT of moving pieces for 2011...one thing seems clear: Pat will not be back.

And what makes you say that?

 

[filosofy29]

Well the Sandoval idea was for next year anyway. Sticking to the rest of this season, do you think the balance of time between Posey and Whiteside at catcher is correct?

And as for the future, if they're not going to bring Sandoval back behind the plate I do hope they will find someone else to be Posey's backup. Whiteside is probably going to make a great coach someday but as many starts as the backup catcher gets on any team, it really would be nice to have somebody who could hit just a little bit more.

Gotcha, in my humble opinion, I'd catch Whiteside every fifth day (for Sanchez) and be done with it.

I do agree with you though, that in the future, they're going to need somebody who's a little more productive with the bat.