It looks like it is down to 5 teams...

[belcherboy]

I think the top 5 teams are pretty clear right now, and 2 of those teams play each other in two weeks. Here is my prediction (based on all teams winning out):

1) Alabama has this baby locked up tight! I actually think they could lose

The order of the rest is pretty fuzzy.
* If Michigan wins out, they would likely snag the #2 spot IMO as the B10 champ.
* If Ohio State wins out (and PSU wins out), then they may get penalized for not being the B10 champ. I'd put them at #3, and bump up Clemson to #2
* If Louisville wins out, they would likely grab the #4 spot, but could sneak into the #3 spot.

I think it will end up being:

1) Alabama (12-0)
2) Clemson (11-1)
3) Ohio St (11-1)
4) Louisville (11-1)

5) Washington (11-1)
6) Oklahoma (10-2)
7) Michigan (10-2)
8) Wisconsin (10-2)

 

[Codaxx]

I think the top 5 teams are pretty clear right now, and 2 of those teams play each other in two weeks. Here is my prediction (based on all teams winning out):

1) Alabama has this baby locked up tight! I actually think they could lose

The order of the rest is pretty fuzzy.
* If Michigan wins out, they would likely snag the #2 spot IMO as the B10 champ.
* If Ohio State wins out (and PSU wins out), then they may get penalized for not being the B10 champ. I'd put them at #3, and bump up Clemson to #2
* If Louisville wins out, they would likely grab the #4 spot, but could sneak into the #3 spot.

I think it will end up being:

1) Alabama (12-0)
2) Clemson (11-1)
3) Ohio St (11-1)
4) Louisville (11-1)

5) Washington (11-1)
6) Oklahoma (10-2)
7) Michigan (10-2)
8) Wisconsin (10-2)

Michigan is out if they lose another game. I would bet that the committee will be rooting hard for Michigan, when they play OSU.

 

[outofyourmind]

1) Alabama (12-0)
2) Clemson (11-1)
3) Ohio St (11-1)
4) Louisville (11-1)

We've seen this game already.
No need for it to happen again.

 

[Codaxx]

We've seen this game already.
No need for it to happen again.

it was actually a really good game.

 

[Across The Field]

I think the top 5 teams are pretty clear right now, and 2 of those teams play each other in two weeks. Here is my prediction (based on all teams winning out):

1) Alabama has this baby locked up tight! I actually think they could lose

The order of the rest is pretty fuzzy.
* If Michigan wins out, they would likely snag the #2 spot IMO as the B10 champ.
* If Ohio State wins out (and PSU wins out), then they may get penalized for not being the B10 champ. I'd put them at #3, and bump up Clemson to #2
* If Louisville wins out, they would likely grab the #4 spot, but could sneak into the #3 spot.

I think it will end up being:

1) Alabama (12-0)
2) Clemson (11-1)
3) Ohio St (11-1)
4) Louisville (11-1)

5) Washington (11-1)
6) Oklahoma (10-2)
7) Michigan (10-2)
8) Wisconsin (10-2)

Is this what you think will be the case before the CCGs?

 

[fishinabarrel]

We've seen this game already.
No need for it to happen again.

It wouldn't

 

[Tharvot]

I think the top 5 teams are pretty clear right now, and 2 of those teams play each other in two weeks. Here is my prediction (based on all teams winning out):

1) Alabama has this baby locked up tight! I actually think they could lose

The order of the rest is pretty fuzzy.
* If Michigan wins out, they would likely snag the #2 spot IMO as the B10 champ.
* If Ohio State wins out (and PSU wins out), then they may get penalized for not being the B10 champ. I'd put them at #3, and bump up Clemson to #2
* If Louisville wins out, they would likely grab the #4 spot, but could sneak into the #3 spot.

I think it will end up being:

1) Alabama (12-0)
2) Clemson (11-1)
3) Ohio St (11-1)
4) Louisville (11-1)

5) Washington (11-1)
6) Oklahoma (10-2)
7) Michigan (10-2)
8) Wisconsin (10-2)

I disagree. One non-champ might get in, but not 2.

Assuming the same scenario you had, here's my rankings of the teams:

1. Bama
2. Clemson
3. Wisconsin
4. Ohio State

5. Washington
6. Oklahoma
7. Louisville
8. Michigan

You could make the case for Ohio State to jump Wisky for 3rd or 4-5 might well switch up if the committee weighs the PAC championship really heavily.

 

[Jchurch06]

Im ok with any of these

 

[Across The Field]

I disagree. One non-champ might get in, but not 2.

Assuming the same scenario you had, here's my rankings of the teams:

1. Bama
2. Clemson
3. Wisconsin
4. Ohio State

5. Washington
6. Oklahoma
7. Louisville
8. Michigan

You could make the case for Ohio State to jump Wisky for 3rd or 4-5 might well switch up if the committee weighs the PAC championship really heavily.

If OSU beats MSU and michigan, they're the #2 team in the CFP rankings going into CCG week by a wide margin. Unless Wisconsin beats the shit out of PSU, I doubt they jump all the way from roughly 7th to 3rd. I think you'd see Bama/OSU/Clemson/Wisconsin in that scenario.

 

[rmilia1]

I disagree. One non-champ might get in, but not 2.

Assuming the same scenario you had, here's my rankings of the teams:

1. Bama
2. Clemson
3. Wisconsin
4. Ohio State

5. Washington
6. Oklahoma
7. Louisville
8. Michigan

You could make the case for Ohio State to jump Wisky for 3rd or 4-5 might well switch up if the committee weighs the PAC championship really heavily.

This is accurate. There is a zero percent chance we non Champs get in. Zero. OSU may not even make it if UW wins out. I'm 50-50 on that one. Teams that control their own situation are Bama, Clemson, Michigan and Wisconsin. Those are the only 4 teams imo that are undoubtedly in if they win out

 

[Tharvot]

If OSU beats MSU and michigan, they're the #2 team in the CFP rankings going into CCG week by a wide margin. Unless Wisconsin beats the shit out of PSU, I doubt they jump all the way from roughly 7th to 3rd. I think you'd see Bama/OSU/Clemson/Wisconsin in that scenario.

TCU dropped from 3rd to 6th after beating Iowa St by 50 on the last week of the season.

The committee values conference championships very heavily. I wouldn't be shocked if the final rankings were Bama, Clemson, Wisky, Washington with Ohio State left holding the bag at 5th again.

 

[Codaxx]

This is accurate. There is a zero percent chance we non Champs get in. Zero. OSU may not even make it if UW wins out. I'm 50-50 on that one. Teams that control their own situation are Bama, Clemson, Michigan and Wisconsin. Those are the only 4 teams imo that are undoubtedly in if they win out

I think people are under-estimating a 1 loss WV that is hanging around. They had BYu and Mizzu on their OOC schedule. They could throw a wrench into everyone's plans if they win out.

 

[Used 2 B Hu]

Y'all know Washington's gonna lose the Apple Cup, right?

 

[Across The Field]

TCU dropped from 3rd to 6th after beating Iowa St by 50 on the last week of the season.

The committee values conference championships very heavily. I wouldn't be shocked if the final rankings were Bama, Clemson, Wisky, Washington with Ohio State left holding the bag at 5th again.

1. OSU had a more impressive resume than TCU that year, and put an emphatic exclamation point on it by beating #13 Wisconsin by 59. Beating #13 by 59 >>>> beating a bad ISU team by 50.

2. OSU has a much better resume than Wisconsin this year, which unlike TCU in 2014, would be further established by beating a top 5 michigan team on the last week of the season.

 

[rmilia1]

I think people are under-estimating a 1 loss WV that is hanging around. They had BYu and Mizzu on their OOC schedule. They could throw a wrench into everyone's plans if they win out.

That's fair. I'm not sure they control their outcome though. I think WV would still need Washington to lose again to be in the debate. If Bama, Clemson, OSU, Wisconsin, UW and WVU all win out the only e teams I think are locks are Bama, Clemson, Wisky. I do not think WVU gets in in that situation and I think it's a coin flip between OSU and UW for the last spot

 

[Codaxx]

That's fair. I'm not sure they control their outcome though. I think WV would still need Washington to lose again to be in the debate. If Bama, Clemson, OSU, Wisconsin, UW and WVU all win out the only e teams I think are locks are Bama, Clemson, Wisky. I do not think WVU gets in in that situation and I think it's a coin flip between OSU and UW for the last spot

I am not convinced a 2 loss Wisconsin gets in over WV. I actually think that would be a good game. I would favor Wisc though. Humans love to say 11-1 > 10-2.

 

[Tharvot]

1. OSU had a more impressive resume than TCU that year, and put an emphatic exclamation point on it by beating #13 Wisconsin by 59. Beating #13 by 59 >>>> beating a bad ISU team by 50.

2. OSU has a much better resume than Wisconsin this year, which unlike TCU in 2014, would be further established by beating a top 5 michigan team on the last week of the season.

I don't disagree about the resumes (though Wisconsin's resume is as strong as Ohio State's since they beat LSU early in the year). I'm pointing out that the committee thought TCU was the 3rd best team in the country heading into the final week of the season and even though they won by 50, they got bumped 3 spots magically.

So, I wouldn't be surprised if they used the same logic to bump out Ohio State this year for a 1-loss Washington if it's the PAC champ. I'll be mad, but not shocked.

Best case scenario for Ohio State (assuming Penn St doesn't drop one of its final games) is for Wisconsin to win the B1G, Oklahoma to win the B12, and WSU or Colorado to win the PAC. That will essentially eliminate the B12 and PAC from consideration and it would be down to Ohio State or Louisville for that final spot. Ohio State would have the much better resume and should get in under that scenario. If Washington wins the PAC with one loss, I think it's a 50-50 shot they get in. If PSU wins the B1G, I have no idea what would happen.

 

[rmilia1]

I am not convinced a 2 loss Wisconsin gets in over WV. I actually think that would be a good game. I would favor Wisc though. Humans love to say 11-1 > 10-2.

I just can't see anyway an 11-2 B10 champ with thecwins,they'd have and their schedule doesn't get in. That'd be a great way to make sure teams stop playing great OOC games imo lol

 

[Across The Field]

I don't disagree about the resumes (though Wisconsin's resume is as strong as Ohio State's since they beat LSU early in the year). I'm pointing out that the committee thought TCU was the 3rd best team in the country heading into the final week of the season and even though they won by 50, they got bumped 3 spots magically.

So, I wouldn't be surprised if they used the same logic to bump out Ohio State this year for a 1-loss Washington if it's the PAC champ. I'll be mad, but not shocked.

Best case scenario for Ohio State (assuming Penn St doesn't drop one of its final games) is for Wisconsin to win the B1G, Oklahoma to win the B12, and WSU or Colorado to win the PAC. That will essentially eliminate the B12 and PAC from consideration and it would be down to Ohio State or Louisville for that final spot. Ohio State would have the much better resume and should get in under that scenario. If Washington wins the PAC with one loss, I think it's a 50-50 shot they get in. If PSU wins the B1G, I have no idea what would happen.

LSU might not even be ranked when the season is over. Neither of these last two games are gimmes for them. Oklahoma is a top 10 team, and OSU won in a much more decisive manner, and they did it on the road. Plus, OSU would have beaten michigan, which Wisconsin did not do. If Wisconsin beats PSU, they would have exactly 0 top 10 wins and maybe 2-3 ranked wins. If OSU beats michigan, they'll have 3 top 10 wins and 4 ranked wins overall.

The committee thought TCU was the 3rd best team until they saw OSU absolutely annihilate the #13 team in the nation. Coupling that along with a convincing road win vs. top 10 Michigan St. and the extra overall win with the same number of losses is what bumped us over TCU.

I honestly don't see PSU beating Wisconsin. If they did, it would not be by much, which I don't think is enough to jump them from the 8-9 range over us. Wisconsin, I also don't think would have enough juice from beating PSU to jump us unless it was that sort of 59-0 style thumping we had in 2014. Then I'm concerned. I also, however, don't think Washington escapes as 12-1 conference champs this year.

 

[Codaxx]

I just can't see anyway an 11-2 B10 champ with thecwins,they'd have and their schedule doesn't get in. That'd be a great way to make sure teams stop playing great OOC games imo lol

It is not like WV has a bad schedule, so this isnt a Baylor/OSU thing. If both had 1 loss, Wisconsin gets in easily over WV. That isnt the case though. Plus it gives the committee an out on potentially deciding between Wisconsin and Ohio State. I wouldnt bet on WV making it, just pointing out that there is a potential for an additional 1 loss team with a conference championship out there. Take a look at Washington and WV. Somehow Washington is still in the discussion, but nobody mentions WV