I was offered a trade last night

[MilkSpiller22]

In my keeper league:

I was offered this trade:

I get: Clay Bucholz(1B),Michael Wacha(5B), Dexter Fowler(4B) and the 2nd overall Minor league draft pick

I give up: Jose Fernandez(4B),one of either Jedd Gyorko(7B) or everth cabrera(5O), and one of my minor league draft picks either 10th,12th,13th,14th.


The numbers in parentheses are the players contracts...

If the letter B is attached then that means this is there second year as a keeper and after this season they become an O

an O attached means that i have the option to keep them one more year at their current contract or 5 units per year extended...

So Everth who i was not going to extend would be 5 units and this would be the last year for him as a keeper...

As for the minor league, we can keep up to 8 minor leaguers, we have a 2 round minor league draft every season- best minor leaguers available are usually the previous draft class, so Kris Bryant will probably be the number one pick...

We can Keep up to 10 MaJor league players, we have no bench and we start C,C,1B,2B,SS,3B,CI,MI,5OF,U,9P(can be any mix of closers and SPs)


SO i have 2 questions...

First is who should i throw into the trade everth or gyorko...
2nd is if i should make the trade...

I am totally on the fence right now... And its all because I am not that high on fowler...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Right now my keepers are

1. Paul Goldshmidt (5O)
2. Jose Fernandez (5B)
3. Craig Kimbrel (12I)- Last year of contract
4. Eric Hosmer (8I)- last year of contract
5. Jason Werth (6B)
6. Everth Cabrera (5O)
7. Jedd Gyorko (7B)
8. Jason Castro (6B)
9. Anthony rendon (4B)
10. Joe Nathan (5O)
11. Hyun-Jin Ryu (4B)
12. Ervin santana (5B)

keepers 9-12 i can only keep 2 of... Probably nathan and ryu...

 

[tlance]

I don't like it.

Fernandez is exponentially more valuable than Wacha (although Wacha is good). Fernandez will likely be on your team for a long time because he will surely be an extension value. Wacha could become elite, but Fernandez already is.

I don't trust Buchholz even though he is a great deal at 1B.

I would strongly prefer either Gyorko or Cabrera to Fowler and the minor league pick you are receiving is a nice asset, but not enough to pull the trigger here.

To make this worthwhile, you would need to return a player better than Fowler and give up a bad contract instead of Gyorko/Cabrera.

Fernandez is an elite asset and you need to make this guy pay.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I don't like it.

Fernandez is exponentially more valuable than Wacha (although Wacha is good). Fernandez will likely be on your team for a long time because he will surely be an extension value. Wacha could become elite, but Fernandez already is.

I don't trust Buchholz even though he is a great deal at 1B.

I would strongly prefer either Gyorko or Cabrera to Fowler and the minor league pick you are receiving is a nice asset, but not enough to pull the trigger here.

To make this worthwhile, you would need to return a player better than Fowler and give up a bad contract instead of Gyorko/Cabrera.

Fernandez is an elite asset and you need to make this guy pay.

Tiance, you are hittling all my concerns about the trade... I am trying to change the MI into rendon, and i am trying to get Belt instead of fowler... But even then i am still not sure if i would accept...

What concerns me with fernandez though is 3 things. first is the obvious that he is on such a bad team, so wins might not come easily... 2nd is the old sophomore slump/injury scenario, and 3 is that i think he might have overperformed last season...
Now of course Wacha has 2 of those concerns as well...

 

[tlance]

Tiance, you are hittling all my concerns about the trade... I am trying to change the MI into rendon, and i am trying to get Belt instead of fowler... But even then i am still not sure if i would accept...

What concerns me with fernandez though is 3 things. first is the obvious that he is on such a bad team, so wins might not come easily... 2nd is the old sophomore slump/injury scenario, and 3 is that i think he might have overperformed last season...
Now of course Wacha has 2 of those concerns as well...

I agree that Fernandez has risk, and Wacha could actually end up being comparable (or better).

In terms of today's value though, you need to make him pay for Fernandez and I don't think he is paying enough.

 

[Yellow Fuzzies]

I agree that Fernandez has risk, and Wacha could actually end up being comparable (or better).

In terms of today's value though, you need to make him pay for Fernandez and I don't think he is paying enough.

I agree with Tlance. Fernandez value today is not being compensated for in this trade. Wacha could develop but he is not there and I would not give up established young arm for potential young arm.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

If i can change the MI into Rendon instead of gyorko or Everth would that change your thoughts about the trade???

 

[Yellow Fuzzies]

If i can change the MI into Rendon instead of gyorko or Everth would that change your thoughts about the trade???

I had Rendon in a keeper league last year and he didn't make my top 7 to keep this year, so maybe I am not as high on him as others. But no- the switch to Rendon would not be enough for me. I happen to believe that Fernandez will be special- kind of like grabbing Verlander early in his career. He should solidify your rotation for years to come.

 

[Philabuster5]

I like Rendon more than either so wouldn't help me
I agree with others: not nearly enough.
For Fernandez I want Wacha, Hosmer and a high end prospect.

Make it known to league that you'll listen on Fernandez. I'd suspect your offers would and should be much much better than this one.

 

[da55bums]

Buchholz will get you more wins than Jose...Wacha most likely will get you more wins than Jose...can't stand Fowler but strikeouts count against in my league, he is a whiffer...I would ask for someone other than Fowler...pick Cabrera and keep Jedd...

...last year everyone was saying Kris Medlen was the next superstar..happens every year...Jose doesn't have enough track record to be a sure thing..getting Buchholz who has more of a track record and past his TJ (which Jose and Wacha could both end up with soon) is a big plus..

I think your pitching staff is better with this trade based on track records, keeping Jose is higher risk and reward but he also could be at his highest selling point also. Jose and Wacha are about even up, Clay and 2nd pick already have you winning the trade...getting something better than Fowler for Cabrera would send the deal over the top in your favor.

If it was someone other than Fowler, I would make the trade.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Buchholz will get you more wins than Jose...Wacha most likely will get you more wins than Jose...can't stand Fowler but strikeouts count against in my league, he is a whiffer...I would ask for someone other than Fowler...pick Cabrera and keep Jedd...

...last year everyone was saying Kris Medlen was the next superstar..happens every year...Jose doesn't have enough track record to be a sure thing..getting Buchholz who has more of a track record and past his TJ (which Jose and Wacha could both end up with soon) is a big plus..

I think your pitching staff is better with this trade based on track records, keeping Jose is higher risk and reward but he also could be at his highest selling point also. Jose and Wacha are about even up, Clay and 2nd pick already have you winning the trade...getting something better than Fowler for Cabrera would send the deal over the top in your favor.

If it was someone other than Fowler, I would make the trade.

I agree with your post 100%, and this is why i am on the fence... I didnt realize how little everyone thought about fowler... He was my biggest question too, but now after this thread, i dont think i would even use him as a keeper... so he is as good as useless... And if he is useless then it is a 2 for 2 trade, and i dont think i am willing to do that...

 

[Philabuster5]

Buchholz will get you more wins than Jose...Wacha most likely will get you more wins than Jose...can't stand Fowler but strikeouts count against in my league, he is a whiffer...I would ask for someone other than Fowler...pick Cabrera and keep Jedd...

...last year everyone was saying Kris Medlen was the next superstar..happens every year...Jose doesn't have enough track record to be a sure thing..getting Buchholz who has more of a track record and past his TJ (which Jose and Wacha could both end up with soon) is a big plus..

I think your pitching staff is better with this trade based on track records, keeping Jose is higher risk and reward but he also could be at his highest selling point also. Jose and Wacha are about even up, Clay and 2nd pick already have you winning the trade...getting something better than Fowler for Cabrera would send the deal over the top in your favor.

If it was someone other than Fowler, I would make the trade.

Don't chase wins. Look for quality. This trade will send a collective moan through your league as every other owner will say WTF! I'd have given way more for Fernandez.
All I'm saying is find out first. No harm.

 

[tlance]

Buchholz has a track record, but it isn't a good one.

He has pitched more than 170 MLB innings exactly twice since his 2007 call-up, and he had an ERA over 4.5 in one of those seasons. Buchholz has never made 30 starts in a season and he has a reputation for turning a two week injury into a two month absence.

Buchholz is a good (not great) pitcher when healthy and he is a good value at $1, but he is nowhere close to reliable.

Also, I don't remember anybody saying Medlen was a superstar last year. Sorry.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Don't chase wins. Look for quality. This trade will send a collective moan through your league as every other owner will say WTF! I'd have given way more for Fernandez.
All I'm saying is find out first. No harm.

I told him today that Fowler is a deal breaker for me, because i am not even sure if i would keep him... therefore it is only 2 for 2 trade... and i like my 2 more than his...

 

[da55bums]

Buchholz has a track record, but it isn't a good one.

He has pitched more than 170 MLB innings exactly twice since his 2007 call-up, and he had an ERA over 4.5 in one of those seasons. Buchholz has never made 30 starts in a season and he has a reputation for turning a two week injury into a two month absence.

Buchholz is a good (not great) pitcher when healthy and he is a good value at $1, but he is nowhere close to reliable.

Also, I don't remember anybody saying Medlen was a superstar last year. Sorry.

lol, almost every fantasy book and blog had Medlen as a hot breakout pick, the dude ripped off 12 straight starts at the end of 2012 that people were talking about even into the playoffs, if you didn't see anything on him then you really don't study much on fantasy.

again Clay has HAD his TJ surgury which is almost at a 40 percent clip now for pitchers to have. Clay is almost 2 years removed from it, the time MOST TJ recoverys become full again.

if your asking wheither to take Clay/Wacha for Fernandez...I would do it, just my opinion...I think Wacha is EXACTLY the same as Fernandez, what Fernandez has about 4 or 5 more proven starts, lol, what is going to matter is how an off season of watching film on both Fernandez and Wacha is going to play out with MLB hitters, its a coin flip who will be better and I don't think even then they will be that far apart. Clay, most likely would be better than any SP that you will start in that spot.

I said they both will have more wins than Fernandez because the other numbers Wacha will put up will be about the same, so Wins tips the scale in Wachas favor.

I do agree with Phil....Fernandez's selling point could be the best it ever will be right now, doesn't hurt to shop him and try to get a better offer but Wacha is a stud, on a winning team, with a track record of producing stud pitchers.

 

[tlance]

A breakout is not the same as a superstar. and Clay's issues extend well beyond TJ.

I never said not to trade Fernandez and I also said Wacha could be as good.

The thing is, Fernandez was the 2nd best pitcher in fantasy baseball last year so his value is far higher that Wacha's. If you are trading him, you would need to get a player far more reliable than Buchholz to close that gap, especially in a keeper league.

Draft results for a recent keeper league draft:

Fernandez: pick 22
Wacha: pick 64
Buchholz outside the top 160

If you take Buchholz and Wacha here, you are making two big mistakes:

1. You are valuing Buchholz's small sample size numbers from last season too highly in light of his career history
2. You are leaving value on the table

Wacha could outproduce Fernandez right now, but that does not change the fact that Fernandez is significantly more valuable. Leaving value on the trade table is a losing fantasy play, whether you are correct in your guesses or not.

 

[Philabuster5]

lol, almost every fantasy book and blog had Medlen as a hot breakout pick, the dude ripped off 12 straight starts at the end of 2012 that people were talking about even into the playoffs, if you didn't see anything on him then you really don't study much on fantasy.

again Clay has HAD his TJ surgury which is almost at a 40 percent clip now for pitchers to have. Clay is almost 2 years removed from it, the time MOST TJ recoverys become full again.

if your asking wheither to take Clay/Wacha for Fernandez...I would do it, just my opinion...I think Wacha is EXACTLY the same as Fernandez, what Fernandez has about 4 or 5 more proven starts, lol, what is going to matter is how an off season of watching film on both Fernandez and Wacha is going to play out with MLB hitters, its a coin flip who will be better and I don't think even then they will be that far apart. Clay, most likely would be better than any SP that you will start in that spot.

I said they both will have more wins than Fernandez because the other numbers Wacha will put up will be about the same, so Wins tips the scale in Wachas favor.

I do agree with Phil....Fernandez's selling point could be the best it ever will be right now, doesn't hurt to shop him and try to get a better offer but Wacha is a stud, on a winning team, with a track record of producing stud pitchers.

1. you're cracking me up
2. Medlen? Superstar hahaha You might have fallen for some hype, a lot of us never batted an eye. Good pitcher but no star.
3. Wacha the same as Fernandez? I like Wacha but you're scouting numbers and a small sample size at that. Watch some video of Fernandez. He's a top 5 SP for dynasty leagues. Likely top 3.
4. 4 or 5 more starts? For someone who is scouting numbers you need to look at them a lot more closely

Wacha might be a top 20 arm next year.
If I'm trading a top elite player I want 2 studs back. Why? because there are so few of them and they produce such mind boggling numbers. Wacha is good but he would one (and likely the lower) of the 2 "studs" I'd want in return. Fowler is a joke. Buchholz isn't even in the ballpark.

It's a lousy offer but there's no point telling you anymore. daBums is giving Bum advice.

 

[Chef99]

1. you're cracking me up
2. Medlen? Superstar hahaha You might have fallen for some hype, a lot of us never batted an eye. Good pitcher but no star.
3. Wacha the same as Fernandez? I like Wacha but you're scouting numbers and a small sample size at that. Watch some video of Fernandez. He's a top 5 SP for dynasty leagues. Likely top 3.
4. 4 or 5 more starts? For someone who is scouting numbers you need to look at them a lot more closely

Wacha might be a top 20 arm next year.
If I'm trading a top elite player I want 2 studs back. Why? because there are so few of them and they produce such mind boggling numbers. Wacha is good but he would one (and likely the lower) of the 2 "studs" I'd want in return. Fowler is a joke. Buchholz isn't even in the ballpark.

It's a lousy offer but there's no point telling you anymore. daBums is giving Bum advice.

^^^ This. Except for maybe the part about Medlen. I think a lot of people did fall for the hype, especially with his position eligibility. I know I was high on him, but never had the opportunity to draft him. Lucky me.

 

[tlance]

^^^ This. Except for maybe the part about Medlen. I think a lot of people did fall for the hype, especially with his position eligibility. I know I was high on him, but never had the opportunity to draft him. Lucky me.

Chef,

I drafted Medlen in the 6th round 1 of my 3 leagues last year. I had him ranked in that nebulous tier after the top 10-12 pitchers, so you could say that I fell for the hype too. I thought he had a chance to produce good numbers, but never did I see or hear anybody call him a superstar. The small sample size made him too difficult to project with any degree of certainty. He was a risky pick who had a chance to deliver SP1 numbers if you believed the hype.

 

[TKOSpikes]

I had Medlen on my team when he ripped off those wins two years ago. It was great, but he wasn't even on my draft board the next season.

Fernandez is elite. Wacha is very good, but he needs another pitch to become elite. Maybe he finds it, maybe he gets there. Definitely a piece of the puzzle you want in return for Jose.

Buchholz was amazing last year, until he (again) hit the DL. Add in the fact he pitches in the AL East, add in the fact he's 30 (even though he looks like he's 22). The thing is, he's never been on my draft board because he's never been elite but his price was usually high due to the Red Sox uniform. IMO, he's way too sketchy to trade away a sure thing... not to mention either 25+ HR or 40 SB from a MI.

Fowler is laughable, even with the 2nd overall pick attached to it.

I wouldn't budge.