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Last year, the Florida State Seminoles posted an average margin of victory of 39.5 points per game on their way to the national title. Nobody was predicting invincibility for the Seminoles this fall, but expectations were high that another dominant run through the regular season was probable.
Oklahoma State had other ideas in Week 1. Florida State clung to a single-score lead late in the fourth quarter before quarterback Jameis Winston connected with wide receiver Rashad Greene for a 50-yard touchdown with a little less than four minutes left to put the game out of reach. The 37-31 victory raised some eyebrows over just how much more vulnerable the Seminoles might be in 2014.
We weren't stunned by the result (we predicted a nine-point victory for the Noles), and we aren't pressing any panic buttons for Florida State. According to our projections, the Seminoles won't face an opponent as strong as Oklahoma State until they reach the College Football Playoff. We give Florida State at least a 70 percent chance to win each of its remaining games, including the ACC championship game, and the Seminoles have a win likelihood of at least 85 percent in seven of those matchups. Every other Power 5 conference contender will face more pitfalls in their playoff hunt.
The College Football Playoff selection committee will have an intriguing set of questions to discuss and debate as the season progresses, and Florida State's strength of schedule may be at the heart of those. The Seminoles currently project to have the 60th-ranked schedule according to the latest FEI ratings -- easier than all but one of the teams projected to be a division or conference winner in the other Power 5 leagues.
We produce schedule strength ratings across a spectrum of variables to help compare teams, and we did a visualization of those comparisons with the help of Andrew Garcia Phillips of Chartball.com. According to our data, for instance, it would be more difficult for an elite team to go 10-2 against Auburn's schedule (42.5 percent likelihood) than it would be to go 12-0 against Iowa's schedule (48.4 percent likelihood). Those are the toughest and easiest schedules, respectively, in the Power 5 conferences, according to our ratings.
While FSU's slate isn't as weak as Iowa's, it still pales in comparison to Alabama's or Oregon's. So we calculated the Seminoles' projected record against their own schedule, and compared it with the projected record they would have if they played the schedule of the projected winners of each of the Power 5 conferences and divisions.
Projected SEC West champion: Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama's schedule would give Florida State 1.1 extra losses
If Florida State swapped its schedule with the Tide, the Seminoles would immediately upgrade the top three opponents on their slate. Texas A&M, LSU and Auburn are all ranked in the top eight in the current FEI rankings, though Alabama does get two of those three at home. The fourth-best team on Alabama's schedule (Mississippi) is ranked right alongside the highest-ranked team on Florida State's schedule (Oklahoma State, which is already out of the way). The Seminoles would have only a 17 percent chance of going 6-0 if they played in the SEC West, while they have a 22 percent chance of running the table against their current schedule.
Projected SEC East champion: Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia's schedule would give Florida State 0.8 extra losses
Like Florida State, Georgia plays both Clemson and Florida, so those challenges are basically a wash when comparing the schedules. But the Bulldogs' next tier of opponents trumps the next tier on the Seminoles' schedule -- Auburn, Missouri and South Carolina are ranked as a stronger trio of opponents than Oklahoma State, Louisville and Notre Dame. The Seminoles would have only a 27 percent chance of beating both sets of Tigers and the Gamecocks. And the conference championship game would be a much bigger challenge against the SEC West than what the Seminoles project to face coming out of the ACC Coastal.
Projected Pac-12 North champion: Oregon Ducks
Oregon's schedule would give Florida State 1.1 extra losses
The Ducks have one of the marquee nonconference matchups of the season when they face Michigan State at home on Saturday, but that game actually doesn't rate as significantly more challenging than the test the Noles just passed this weekend against Oklahoma State. The key difference if FSU swapped schedules with Oregon is the conference tests against UCLA and Stanford. Both the Bruins and Cardinal are ranked among the FEI top 12, but the toughest conference opponent on Florida State's ACC schedule is No. 24 Louisville. Florida State has a 43 percent chance of going undefeated in the ACC, but would have only a 33 percent chance of beating both UCLA and Stanford.
Projected Pac-12 South champion: USC Trojans
USC's schedule would give Florida State 1.5 extra losses
The Trojans were impressive last weekend, solidifying our preseason projection that they are the favorite to emerge out of the Pac-12 South. Their schedule isn't easy, however, and actually would give Florida State its worst record in this analysis. Like Oregon's schedule, games against UCLA and Stanford would pose the biggest threats, and in this schedule swap, both games would be on the road. One week after the showdown with UCLA, the Trojans play Notre Dame to end the season. That two-game swing would be the toughest stretch Florida State would face all season, and the Seminoles would have only a 38 percent chance of winning both.
Projected Big Ten East champion: Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State's schedule would give Florida State 0.3 extra losses
Ohio State's schedule isn't exceptionally stronger than Florida State's. In fact, the Seminoles would have an 85 percent win likelihood against eight different opponents on the Buckeyes' slate. If they swapped schedules, however, the Noles would have a lower overall win likelihood due to a very difficult road game against Michigan State and a tough conference championship game opponent out of the Big Ten West. Those differences are relatively slight compared to the rest of the Power 5 contenders, however, and Florida State's overall record is likely to stand up well if compared to a Big Ten opponent's.
Projected Big Ten West champion: Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin's schedule would give Florida State 0.3 extra losses
Like Florida State, the Badgers faced their toughest regular-season test right out of the gate. If the Seminoles swapped schedules with Wisconsin, the neutral-site game against LSU would have been even more difficult than facing Oklahoma State. The rest of the regular-season schedule would be a relative cakewalk (44 percent chance FSU would run the table) before ramping up against another strong challenger in the Big Ten championship game.
Projected Big 12 champion: Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma's schedule would give Florida State 0 extra losses
Oklahoma's overall schedule wouldn't be an upgrade for the Seminoles, and because the Big 12 doesn't have a conference championship game, there would be one fewer obstacle. The challenge with the Sooners' schedule is the sequence of opponents. A road trip to TCU and the Red River Rivalry against Texas come in back-to-back weeks in October, immediately followed by a showdown with a dangerous Kansas State team. In November, a tricky road trip to Lubbock is followed by a game against presumptive Big 12 challenger Baylor. The toughest matchups on Florida State's schedule are much more evenly spaced.
Florida State's schedule weakest among Power 5 contenders -- College Football - ESPN
Oklahoma State had other ideas in Week 1. Florida State clung to a single-score lead late in the fourth quarter before quarterback Jameis Winston connected with wide receiver Rashad Greene for a 50-yard touchdown with a little less than four minutes left to put the game out of reach. The 37-31 victory raised some eyebrows over just how much more vulnerable the Seminoles might be in 2014.
We weren't stunned by the result (we predicted a nine-point victory for the Noles), and we aren't pressing any panic buttons for Florida State. According to our projections, the Seminoles won't face an opponent as strong as Oklahoma State until they reach the College Football Playoff. We give Florida State at least a 70 percent chance to win each of its remaining games, including the ACC championship game, and the Seminoles have a win likelihood of at least 85 percent in seven of those matchups. Every other Power 5 conference contender will face more pitfalls in their playoff hunt.
The College Football Playoff selection committee will have an intriguing set of questions to discuss and debate as the season progresses, and Florida State's strength of schedule may be at the heart of those. The Seminoles currently project to have the 60th-ranked schedule according to the latest FEI ratings -- easier than all but one of the teams projected to be a division or conference winner in the other Power 5 leagues.
We produce schedule strength ratings across a spectrum of variables to help compare teams, and we did a visualization of those comparisons with the help of Andrew Garcia Phillips of Chartball.com. According to our data, for instance, it would be more difficult for an elite team to go 10-2 against Auburn's schedule (42.5 percent likelihood) than it would be to go 12-0 against Iowa's schedule (48.4 percent likelihood). Those are the toughest and easiest schedules, respectively, in the Power 5 conferences, according to our ratings.
While FSU's slate isn't as weak as Iowa's, it still pales in comparison to Alabama's or Oregon's. So we calculated the Seminoles' projected record against their own schedule, and compared it with the projected record they would have if they played the schedule of the projected winners of each of the Power 5 conferences and divisions.
Projected SEC West champion: Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama's schedule would give Florida State 1.1 extra losses
If Florida State swapped its schedule with the Tide, the Seminoles would immediately upgrade the top three opponents on their slate. Texas A&M, LSU and Auburn are all ranked in the top eight in the current FEI rankings, though Alabama does get two of those three at home. The fourth-best team on Alabama's schedule (Mississippi) is ranked right alongside the highest-ranked team on Florida State's schedule (Oklahoma State, which is already out of the way). The Seminoles would have only a 17 percent chance of going 6-0 if they played in the SEC West, while they have a 22 percent chance of running the table against their current schedule.
Projected SEC East champion: Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia's schedule would give Florida State 0.8 extra losses
Like Florida State, Georgia plays both Clemson and Florida, so those challenges are basically a wash when comparing the schedules. But the Bulldogs' next tier of opponents trumps the next tier on the Seminoles' schedule -- Auburn, Missouri and South Carolina are ranked as a stronger trio of opponents than Oklahoma State, Louisville and Notre Dame. The Seminoles would have only a 27 percent chance of beating both sets of Tigers and the Gamecocks. And the conference championship game would be a much bigger challenge against the SEC West than what the Seminoles project to face coming out of the ACC Coastal.
Projected Pac-12 North champion: Oregon Ducks
Oregon's schedule would give Florida State 1.1 extra losses
The Ducks have one of the marquee nonconference matchups of the season when they face Michigan State at home on Saturday, but that game actually doesn't rate as significantly more challenging than the test the Noles just passed this weekend against Oklahoma State. The key difference if FSU swapped schedules with Oregon is the conference tests against UCLA and Stanford. Both the Bruins and Cardinal are ranked among the FEI top 12, but the toughest conference opponent on Florida State's ACC schedule is No. 24 Louisville. Florida State has a 43 percent chance of going undefeated in the ACC, but would have only a 33 percent chance of beating both UCLA and Stanford.
Projected Pac-12 South champion: USC Trojans
USC's schedule would give Florida State 1.5 extra losses
The Trojans were impressive last weekend, solidifying our preseason projection that they are the favorite to emerge out of the Pac-12 South. Their schedule isn't easy, however, and actually would give Florida State its worst record in this analysis. Like Oregon's schedule, games against UCLA and Stanford would pose the biggest threats, and in this schedule swap, both games would be on the road. One week after the showdown with UCLA, the Trojans play Notre Dame to end the season. That two-game swing would be the toughest stretch Florida State would face all season, and the Seminoles would have only a 38 percent chance of winning both.
Projected Big Ten East champion: Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State's schedule would give Florida State 0.3 extra losses
Ohio State's schedule isn't exceptionally stronger than Florida State's. In fact, the Seminoles would have an 85 percent win likelihood against eight different opponents on the Buckeyes' slate. If they swapped schedules, however, the Noles would have a lower overall win likelihood due to a very difficult road game against Michigan State and a tough conference championship game opponent out of the Big Ten West. Those differences are relatively slight compared to the rest of the Power 5 contenders, however, and Florida State's overall record is likely to stand up well if compared to a Big Ten opponent's.
Projected Big Ten West champion: Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin's schedule would give Florida State 0.3 extra losses
Like Florida State, the Badgers faced their toughest regular-season test right out of the gate. If the Seminoles swapped schedules with Wisconsin, the neutral-site game against LSU would have been even more difficult than facing Oklahoma State. The rest of the regular-season schedule would be a relative cakewalk (44 percent chance FSU would run the table) before ramping up against another strong challenger in the Big Ten championship game.
Projected Big 12 champion: Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma's schedule would give Florida State 0 extra losses
Oklahoma's overall schedule wouldn't be an upgrade for the Seminoles, and because the Big 12 doesn't have a conference championship game, there would be one fewer obstacle. The challenge with the Sooners' schedule is the sequence of opponents. A road trip to TCU and the Red River Rivalry against Texas come in back-to-back weeks in October, immediately followed by a showdown with a dangerous Kansas State team. In November, a tricky road trip to Lubbock is followed by a game against presumptive Big 12 challenger Baylor. The toughest matchups on Florida State's schedule are much more evenly spaced.
Florida State's schedule weakest among Power 5 contenders -- College Football - ESPN
