How long before Russell Wilson breaks the all-time record?

[Schmoopy1000]

Supply and demand. QBs that are better, are set as a starter because of their contract, or are cheap and have potential:

Tua Tagovailoa MIA
Brock Purdy SF
Jared Goff DET
Patrick Mahomes KC
Dak Prescott DAL
Josh Allen BUF
Trevor Lawrence JAX
Matthew Stafford LAR
Jalen Hurts PHI
C.J. Stroud HOU
Sam Howell WSH
Baker Mayfield TB
Jordan Love GB
Derek Carr NO
Lamar Jackson BAL
Geno Smith SEA
Justin Herbert LAC
Gardner Minshew IND
Bryce Young CAR
Kirk Cousins MIN
Joe Burrow CIN
Kyler Murray ARI
Ryan Tannehill TEN
Jimmy Garoppolo LV
Deshaun Watson CLE
Daniel Jones NYG
Justin Fields CHI
Kenny Pickett PIT

I might be being a bit harsh on a few others such as Winston, Darnold, Brissett, Heinicke, Taylor, Dalton, Huntley, Lock, O'Connell, Levis, Browning, etc. I have a top list of 28 names who are better options and there might be 5 potential starters coming in through the Draft. Wilson will be competing with these other QBs for maybe 4 starting jobs. Simple market forces.

maybe I am misunderstanding your post. (probably am)
but there are plenty on this list I would pay Russell more than them to replace
Then there is a few more I think he would be better than but I get your point they are affirmed starters for their team.
Still dont believe there is any chance his price tag drops below 30. Certainly not 19.
If it does. I know an agent that would never get hired in the football ranks ever again.

 

[fastforward]

maybe I am misunderstanding your post. (probably am)
but there are plenty on this list I would pay Russell more than them to replace
Then there is a few more I think he would be better than but I get your point they are affirmed starters for their team.
Still dont believe there is any chance his price tag drops below 30. Certainly not 19.
If it does. I know an agent that would never get hired in the football ranks ever again.

I'm curious who Wilson would replace.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

I'm curious who Wilson would replace.

my real quick answer from your list.
Sam Howell
Minshew
Tannehill
Jimmy G
Danny DImes
Fields
Pickett
Minnesota is without a QB for 24'
I excluded Geno since we all know there is no way he can go back to Seattle.
then there are others I think he would be better than but obviously teams arent looking.

Others might argue Mayfield, Love & Carr. but I think those would stay put even if favorable contract. Well maybe not the Saints if it were favorable.

 

[fastforward]

my real quick answer from your list.
Sam Howell
Minshew
Tannehill
Jimmy G
Danny DImes
Fields
Pickett
Minnesota is without a QB for 24'
I excluded Geno since we all know there is no way he can go back to Seattle.
then there are others I think he would be better than but obviously teams arent looking.

Others might argue Mayfield, Love & Carr. but I think those would stay put even if favorable contract. Well maybe not the Saints if it were favorable.

Understood. Howell, Fields, and Pickett are on cheap rookie contracts. They're not as good as Wilson but they're vastly cheaper. Garoppolo, Jones, and Carr have substantial guarantees so you'd be paying them to go away. Minshew, Mayfield, and Love will be Moneyball decisions vs Wilson. They currently are, or will be, under $6M. Smith is due $22.5M and the Seahawks might still say no. Hard to value Wilson above Smith going forward.

 

[fastforward]

If I’m reading this correctly, the trading team would be looking at the first two years post trade at $39 million in 24 and $37 million in 25 they would be on the hook for with the future contract. I think that’s reasonable for the QB market. I think the trade option doesn’t suit Denver. Again…my cap management understanding may be off but I think with a cut the Broncos can pay the dead cap of $85 million over two years but a trade option would accelerate the dead cap hit to be all next year and $85 million would be like more than a third of the team cap for a player that isn’t even playing for them. I seem to remember the acceleration of Wentz dead cap when he was traded to Colts but I could have gotten this wrong. @fastforward has posted in the past with some solid cap information. Bro, you seem to have a good understanding of the cap. Can you provide some clarity on the dead cap difference cutting vs trading? Thanks in advance.
View attachment 349730

If a team trades a player with contract guarantees rather than cut him the new team is responsible for the guarantees. If there are no guarantees in a contract there is no cap difference between cutting and trading.

Trying to keep it simple - the salary cap is made up of 2 components that have different start/finish dates. Salary runs alongside the NFL year from March through to March. 'Other' runs from Jun 2 through to Jun 1. Dead money is in 'Other'. The 2023 cap includes all salary from March '23 to the year end in March '24. The 2023 cap includes 'Other' from Jun 2 2022 to Jun 1 2023. This is where the splitting of a cap hit comes in. Teams don't get to choose. It's an automatic function of 'when' the player leaves.

There is $14M in dead money against Wilson that is due to be accounted for in 2024, (the 'Other' from Jun 2 2023 to Jun 1 2024). There is also $32M in dead money due to be accounted for after Jun 2 2024, (caps in 2025 and beyond). If Wilson leaves the Broncos before June 2 2024 that future dead money would accelerate into the 2024 cap. The Broncos would like to move Wilson out after Jun 1 or designate him as a Post Jun 1 cut. That would mean all the $32M would accelerate into the 2025 cap and not the 2024 cap. However, his $37M salary for 2025 guarantees in March 2024 so delaying purely for cap purposes is not an option.

 

[fightinfunbags]

If a team trades a player with contract guarantees rather than cut him the new team is responsible for the guarantees. If there are no guarantees in a contract there is no cap difference between cutting and trading.

Trying to keep it simple - the salary cap is made up of 2 components that have different start/finish dates. Salary runs alongside the NFL year from March through to March. 'Other' runs from Jun 2 through to Jun 1. Dead money is in 'Other'. The 2023 cap includes all salary from March '23 to the year end in March '24. The 2023 cap includes 'Other' from Jun 2 2022 to Jun 1 2023. This is where the splitting of a cap hit comes in. Teams don't get to choose. It's an automatic function of 'when' the player leaves.

There is $14M in dead money against Wilson that is due to be accounted for in 2024, (the 'Other' from Jun 2 2023 to Jun 1 2024). There is also $32M in dead money due to be accounted for after Jun 2 2024, (caps in 2025 and beyond). If Wilson leaves the Broncos before June 2 2024 that future dead money would accelerate into the 2024 cap. The Broncos would like to move Wilson out after Jun 1 or designate him as a Post Jun 1 cut. That would mean all the $32M would accelerate into the 2025 cap and not the 2024 cap. However, his $37M salary for 2025 guarantees in March 2024 so delaying purely for cap purposes is not an option.

Thank you!

 

[boogiewithstu2007]

MSN

 

[Duffman]

MSN

Something has always been off about this. October 2023 - “Change your contract or be benched“ Russ says no and doesn’t get benched.

Plus there’s this that just came out

 

[Schmoopy1000]

Something has always been off about this. October 2023 - “Change your contract or be benched“ Russ says no and doesn’t get benched.

Plus there’s this that just came out

so for those of us that are dumb with contracts.
What is the difference in this case. Deferring it to what?

 

[Duffman]

so for those of us that are dumb with contracts.
What is the difference in this case. Deferring it to what?

this is the best I could find right now

 

[Schmoopy1000]

this is the best I could find right now

thing I disagree with is. When they say it isnt just financial or he would have gotten benched earlier.
He wasnt benched earlier because they still had a good chance to make the playoffs. Once that went away he got benched for financial reasons.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

If a team trades a player with contract guarantees rather than cut him the new team is responsible for the guarantees. If there are no guarantees in a contract there is no cap difference between cutting and trading.

Trying to keep it simple - the salary cap is made up of 2 components that have different start/finish dates. Salary runs alongside the NFL year from March through to March. 'Other' runs from Jun 2 through to Jun 1. Dead money is in 'Other'. The 2023 cap includes all salary from March '23 to the year end in March '24. The 2023 cap includes 'Other' from Jun 2 2022 to Jun 1 2023. This is where the splitting of a cap hit comes in. Teams don't get to choose. It's an automatic function of 'when' the player leaves.

There is $14M in dead money against Wilson that is due to be accounted for in 2024, (the 'Other' from Jun 2 2023 to Jun 1 2024). There is also $32M in dead money due to be accounted for after Jun 2 2024, (caps in 2025 and beyond). If Wilson leaves the Broncos before June 2 2024 that future dead money would accelerate into the 2024 cap. The Broncos would like to move Wilson out after Jun 1 or designate him as a Post Jun 1 cut. That would mean all the $32M would accelerate into the 2025 cap and not the 2024 cap. However, his $37M salary for 2025 guarantees in March 2024 so delaying purely for cap purposes is not an option.

Thank you!

Make that a double thank you from me. I to keep up with today's extremely convoluted contract matters with the NFL, which to me are the most confusing in all of professional sports. But I often find myself scratching my head in trying to figure out all this shit. You did a good job of at least helping us understand the mechanisms a bit more.

 

[Moab]

After thinking about where he ends up...Vegas baby!!!!

 

[fastforward]

so for those of us that are dumb with contracts.
What is the difference in this case. Deferring it to what?

I'm not 100% on this but I believe Wilson could potentially use an short-term injury to prevent the Broncos cutting him before the March guarantee date if he was unable to pass a medical. The Broncos are suggesting they'd honour the $37M injury guarantee if Wilson has a serious condition but they wanted to avoid Wilson activating the injury guarantee for something minor like a broken arm or minor corrective surgery when he'd be fully healthy a few weeks later. They wanted the date moved back maybe 2 months. It's like a last minute prenup request and suggests a major breakdown in trust. I don't blame the Broncos for asking and I don't blame Wilson for saying no.

 

[fastforward]

If a team trades a player with contract guarantees rather than cut him the new team is responsible for the guarantees. If there are no guarantees in a contract there is no cap difference between cutting and trading.

Trying to keep it simple - the salary cap is made up of 2 components that have different start/finish dates. Salary runs alongside the NFL year from March through to March. 'Other' runs from Jun 2 through to Jun 1. Dead money is in 'Other'. The 2023 cap includes all salary from March '23 to the year end in March '24. The 2023 cap includes 'Other' from Jun 2 2022 to Jun 1 2023. This is where the splitting of a cap hit comes in. Teams don't get to choose. It's an automatic function of 'when' the player leaves.

There is $14M in dead money against Wilson that is due to be accounted for in 2024, (the 'Other' from Jun 2 2023 to Jun 1 2024). There is also $32M in dead money due to be accounted for after Jun 2 2024, (caps in 2025 and beyond). If Wilson leaves the Broncos before June 2 2024 that future dead money would accelerate into the 2024 cap. The Broncos would like to move Wilson out after Jun 1 or designate him as a Post Jun 1 cut. That would mean all the $32M would accelerate into the 2025 cap and not the 2024 cap. However, his $37M salary for 2025 guarantees in March 2024 so delaying purely for cap purposes is not an option.

After further review...

...I am wrong about the Post Jun 1 cut. According to Overthecap if a player is designated as a Post Jun 1 cut no further guarantees will kick in between the date it's activated and the actual Jun 1 date. This means the Broncos could designate Wilson as a Post Jun 1 cut without his 2025 salary becoming guaranteed. So if they do cut him they should use the Jun1 designation to prevent $32M of post 2024 dead money accelerating into the 2024 cap.

Unless OTC are also wrong...