How far does WSU get in the dance?

[CatsTopPac]

Your numbers confused me.

You must mean win instead of lose, 4 percent chance to lose in the NC

I'd say they have a 70 percent chance to get to SS. And a 20 percent to get to EE, and a 5 percent chance to get to FF.

I really think they can dominate into the SS. Yes there schedule sucks, but not losing one game is pretty nutty. I think once in the sweet 16, they will have a tough game against a good 4/5 seed. They fairly well might edge that game out, but I doubt they get past the 2 or 3 seed, a lot of great 2 and 3 seeds this year, pretty spread across the board.

How are they confusing. I listing how far I think they get, and what I think their chances are. So I think there is a 0% chance of them losing in the first round, a 15% chance of them losing in the second round, a 45% chance of them losing in the Sweet 16, etc. How hard is that to figure out. I'm asking how far you think they will go. I think that there is a 45% chance that they will only go to the Sweet 16 (or lose in the Sweet 16 game.

 

[CoolStoryBro]

How are they confusing. I listing how far I think they get, and what I think their chances are. So I think there is a 0% chance of them losing in the first round, a 15% chance of them losing in the second round, a 45% chance of them losing in the Sweet 16, etc. How hard is that to figure out. I'm asking how far you think they will go. I think that there is a 45% chance that they will only go to the Sweet 16 (or lose in the Sweet 16 game.

That I get but when you said

Lose in FF 4 percent chance, that means it looked like you meant they have a 96 percent chance of winning.

I knew what you meant tho big fella.

 

[CatsTopPac]

That's exactly what you are asking then. Is how do they look,

They look like a final 4 team. They haven't lost one time all year after making the final 4.

Any objective view point will tell you that.

Your question makes no sense, it's so open ended and subjective. If we are not using match ups the. We use what we know about them. HAVE NOT LOST.

Man, you are really struggling with this. Almost everyone else seems to be getting what I'm asking here. If you think that they are a FF team just because they haven't lost, then fine. But I think they are only a Sweet 16 team because although they haven't lost, I think that they haven't played a top 50 RPI team since December. And they have only played one team in the top 25. I think that there are a few teams that if they had only played 3 teams in the top 50 all year (all in December), and then nothing close to a tourney team after, that they would be undefeated as well. So I'm saying that I don't think that they have been tested enough this season to be able to beat (possibly) 2 top 25 teams in a row in order to get to the FF, when they have only played one top 25 team all year (again, back in December). It's not to say that they haven't done everything that has been asked of them, but I don't think they have played a good enough schedule to indicate that they will be beating the caliber of teams back to back to back, to get to the FF, when they haven't even played that quality of schedule this year.

Because if you are just saying that they are undefeated, then they should be hands down everyone's favorite to win the whole thing, right? Of course not. Because they haven't played a tourney team since December. Their only three games against tourney teams have been against 2 bubble teams, and a team in StL who will be around a 5 seed. And all of those games were early. So that doesn't tell me that they can beat a potential 4 seed, and then a potential 2 seed (let alone anyone after that).

So on paper, they are undefeated, and they should go to the FF. But I, like others on here, are not sold. They do not look like a FF team, just because they are undefeated. They have not been tested enough to show some of us that they can beat a top 5, 10, or even top 15 team; let alone to beat them back to back, with only one day off in between.

Following yet? We're waiting for you to not be wrapped around the axle here, and either state you prediction, or if you think that they are a FF team, then be done with it.

 

[CatsTopPac]

That I get but when you said

Lose in FF 4 percent chance, that means it looked like you meant they have a 96 percent chance of winning.

I knew what you meant tho big fella.

I see how it could be taken like that.

 

[CoolStoryBro]

As I've said getting to the sweet 16 I think will actually be easy as hell.

There are some great 4/5 seeds, that'll be a tough one for them. We have some great 2/3 seeds, that'll be the one that for sure knocks there socks off in the EE.

 

[CoolStoryBro]

I see how it could be taken like that.

 

[CatsTopPac]

As I've said getting to the sweet 16 I think will actually be easy as hell.

There are some great 4/5 seeds, that'll be a tough one for them. We have some great 2/3 seeds, that'll be the one that for sure knocks there socks off in the EE.

I completely agree with you. First weekend shouldn't be much of a problem. Maybe if there is a 8/9 team that really wants it, and plays out of their minds, it could happen (it is March). Also, it might surprise them a bit, because it's been so long since they've played a tourney team. But I think they win. It's that second weekend that I think will get them. Some of those 4/5 teams, and especially the 2/3 teams (like you said) will be tough for them to beat, IMO. I just think that with only one day off, playing their two best opponents all year, it will be too much for them. Also, last year, they definitely had the element of surprise, and were basically playing with house money. THis year, nobody will be looking past them, and everyone will want to be the ones to knock them off. Also, it's just a shit ton of pressure for a team to be undefeated heading into the tourney. When you are a Duke, a UK, a KU, etc., you are ready for it, because you've probably played in that situation with your team this year. WSU hasn't. Last year was last year.

And finally, I think that losing helps a team to really drive home some weaknesses, that teams learn from throughout the season. When you haven't lost, you aren't as accountable to your weaknesses, because it hasn't cost you with a loss. Think about it. WSU's only loss of the year will be the last game they play in. No time then, to learn from the mistakes.

 

[CoolStoryBro]

I completely agree with you. First weekend shouldn't be much of a problem. Maybe if there is a 8/9 team that really wants it, and plays out of their minds, it could happen (it is March). Also, it might surprise them a bit, because it's been so long since they've played a tourney team. But I think they win. It's that second weekend that I think will get them. Some of those 4/5 teams, and especially the 2/3 teams (like you said) will be tough for them to beat, IMO. I just think that with only one day off, playing their two best opponents all year, it will be too much for them. Also, last year, they definitely had the element of surprise, and were basically playing with house money. THis year, nobody will be looking past them, and everyone will want to be the ones to knock them off. Also, it's just a shit ton of pressure for a team to be undefeated heading into the tourney. When you are a Duke, a UK, a KU, etc., you are ready for it, because you've probably played in that situation with your team this year. WSU hasn't. Last year was last year.

And finally, I think that losing helps a team to really drive home some weaknesses, that teams learn from throughout the season. When you haven't lost, you aren't as accountable to your weaknesses, because it hasn't cost you with a loss. Think about it. WSU's only loss of the year will be the last game they play in. No time then, to learn from the mistakes.

Absolutely, every team wants to BE that TEAM that gives them there first loss. I would love it if OSU was the 8 seed that rings me up, I could see KSU and even Gonzaga giving them a run for some payback from last year.

But the second weekend will be too much for them. Imagine if a MSU or Louisville or UNC or Cinci was the 4 seed? I mean holy shit. Maybe just maybe, but then going up against a Wisconsin, Duke, Cuse, Virginia no way I don't see it.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Man, you are really struggling with this. Almost everyone else seems to be getting what I'm asking here. If you think that they are a FF team just because they haven't lost, then fine. But I think they are only a Sweet 16 team because although they haven't lost, I think that they haven't played a top 50 RPI team since December. And they have only played one team in the top 25. I think that there are a few teams that if they had only played 3 teams in the top 50 all year (all in December), and then nothing close to a tourney team after, that they would be undefeated as well. So I'm saying that I don't think that they have been tested enough this season to be able to beat (possibly) 2 top 25 teams in a row in order to get to the FF, when they have only played one top 25 team all year (again, back in December). It's not to say that they haven't done everything that has been asked of them, but I don't think they have played a good enough schedule to indicate that they will be beating the caliber of teams back to back to back, to get to the FF, when they haven't even played that quality of schedule this year.

Because if you are just saying that they are undefeated, then they should be hands down everyone's favorite to win the whole thing, right? Of course not. Because they haven't played a tourney team since December. Their only three games against tourney teams have been against 2 bubble teams, and a team in StL who will be around a 5 seed. And all of those games were early. So that doesn't tell me that they can beat a potential 4 seed, and then a potential 2 seed (let alone anyone after that).

So on paper, they are undefeated, and they should go to the FF. But I, like others on here, are not sold. They do not look like a FF team, just because they are undefeated. They have not been tested enough to show some of us that they can beat a top 5, 10, or even top 15 team; let alone to beat them back to back, with only one day off in between.

Following yet? We're waiting for you to not be wrapped around the axle here, and either state you prediction, or if you think that they are a FF team, then be done with it.

No. You have a complete subjective and open ended question.

I like multiple people answered that you need to know seeds. You changed the name of the game to how far can they go based off what you have seen.

So that would be based off ON PAPER. What you just said isn't your goal.

You are simply saying a team won't make the final 4. I could say that about every damn team in college basketball and be right 99% of the time.

Your question is awful because you can't even keep straight the criteria.

If it's off what they have accomplished then me and rmilia have summed it up. They have all the parts to be a final 4 teams proves by the returning experience.

They are a final 4 talent team. You cannot tell how far they get until you see match ups.

I don't know what you are missing here. Any other prediction is a subjective guess based off nothing because we have no idea who they are playing and they have proven to be among the 4 best teams 8 at the worst.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Btw 3 posters actually answered your open ended question.

So again, not "everyone" but me is getting it.

Most everyone on here is my line of thinking. They have elite 8 final 4 talent and predicting where a team loses is based of match ups. Don't get too wrapped around the pole on common sense.

 

[CatsTopPac]

Uh, go back and read what rmilla wrote. He said that to him, they are on average an EE team, although they could win the natty. That is the answer I am looking for. We all know that they could win the NC, but where does he think they will get. He said the EE, although he also left it open. Hahaha, that's allowed. He's on the fence with them, it's okay. Some are on the fence, others are not.

And as far as what everyone else says:

Tabascojet says SS at worst, redalert says SS, Cincyfan78 says SS is a safe bet, runeman says SS, gordontrue says SS, I say SS, coolstorybro says SS, rmilla says EE.

Sounds like you are either EE or FF. That's fine.

I understand that some are saying that it is tough without a bracket because of the matchups. And I agree. But I am specifically asking about a subjective assessment of WSU, in general. Not specifically, depending on who they will play in their bracket. Once brackets come out, we will know specifically how far people think WSU will go.

Again, based on where how a person feels about how they look, what there competition has been, and the rest of the field, I'm asking people how good of a team they think WSU is.

For example: I think that AZ is a EE or a FF team. I don't know who they will play. I don't know the matchups. But based on how good I think AZ is this year, I think that the EE and the FF are reasonable expectations for me, of them, this year.

Because hell, this is March. If AZ is a #1 seed, they could play a 12 seed to go to the EE, and they could play a 11 seed to go to the FF. They could play a 9 seed in the FF, and they could play a 6 seed in the NC. Or, they could play a 8 seed that really has a good matchup against them. So whether they lose in the second round, or they win the whole thing, given how they have played this year, against their strength of schedule, I see them as an EE or a FF team. The bracket still has to be solidified, and hell, the games still have to be played. Just because they have a tough potential matchup against KU (let's say), still doesn't mean shit if KU doesn't get far enough to play them.

So really, if you want to nit pick the fuck out of this, then we really won't know how far each team will go, until they actually have the team in front of them, not even once the bracket has been filled out. See how this breaks down into nothing, by your criteria?

Because I have read that WSU is so polarizing, and that there are people who are big on WSU, and people who are not big on them, I am essentially asking, how big are you on WSU?

I'm not asking because I'm going to come back with an "I told you so". I'm just asking to gauge how many people think that WSU is a FF team, and how many people are not sold on them as a legit threat to win it, or get to the FF.

So in closing, it looks like there are 5 of us who think that they are a SS team. That means that we are not really sold that WSU is a FF team. I think we can agree that they are more of a threat than a lot of teams, but people feel that given their schedule, they are very questionable as a #1 seed. Some people feel that they have the pieces to play in Dallas, but are not completely sold on them (rmilla, tabascojet, and cincyfan78).

The FF is a difficult place to get. And this year's field is not exactly strong enough to bet the farm that too many teams will make it. But some have better feelings of teams than others.

For instance, I'm big on KU, UF, Duke, UVA, AZ, Wisky, Michigan, and I'm on the fence about Cuse, MSU, Nova, and 'Ville. I don't know what their matchups are going to be. Not a clue. But those are the teams that I think have the best chances to me to beat 4 teams in a row and get to Dallas. I don't think that WSU is one of them. And I'm just asking who else feels that way, and who feels that they can. Looks like some people agree with me, and some are on the fence. But even that is significant, because they are an undefeated team with a #1 seed. So objectively, they should be a favorite for Dallas. But I'm gauging that not a lot of people feel that way. And that is what I was wondering.

So common sense (according to you) means that we really can't even talk about this until right before each game that WSU plays. But in a world where people are just bullshitting about how they think a team will fair against the quality of teams that they will be facing in the second weekend (specifically) of the tourney, it's just getting a feel for where people are concerning WSU.

This has been my intent all along. So I have a hard time seeing where you think I am switching my criteria, especially when this has been my intent all along. Go back and look at my OP. I clearly asked where people see them as realistically getting. Not where they could go, but how far people actually think they will go. It's an opinion question. The very last sentence consists of me clearly stating that I am just interested to know where everyone is at, on WSU. In other words, how big on WSU are you? I don't know how else to explain this.

 

[CoolStoryBro]

Btw 3 posters actually answered your open ended question.

So again, not "everyone" but me is getting it.

Most everyone on here is my line of thinking. They have elite 8 final 4 talent and predicting where a team loses is based of match ups. Don't get too wrapped around the pole on common sense.

It's just a simple question of whether or not you think they will get to the SS, EE, or FF.

Obviously we can't know for sure what the match up is, but we have a good idea who the 4/5 seeds are and the 2/3.

 

[CatsTopPac]

It's just a simple question of whether or not you think they will get to the SS, EE, or FF.

Obviously we can't know for sure what the match up is, but we have a good idea who the 4/5 seeds are and the 2/3.

Exactly. I'm pretty sure that all year we've been asking "Who is in your FF?"

No one has answered "THis is obviously a stupid fucking question until I see the brackets." It's just asking who is everyone big on right now. And it has been answered and discussed. Instead of opening it up to the whole field, I'm just asking about WSU, because they seem to be polarizing. How big is everyone on WSU right now? That's it. It's all hypothetical, and opinion based. It's not that difficult.

 

[2Slick]

Sweet Sixteen at best.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

And I said they are a final 4/title contender I answered it just how everyone else has. Seriously, it isn't that hard to understand

There average is an elite 8 team. How is that any different then me saying they are a final 4 team? Hint, it is no different.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

You said on paper they are a final 4 team.

But that you think sweet 16 furthest because of the fact they haven't beaten anyone good. You do realize that something like that would go in the "on paper" category right?

 

[CatsTopPac]

Well you said they are a FF/NC contender. And you also said that their average is an EE team. So that's kind of like saying that they are anything from a EE to a NC winner. A little vague, but it's fine. I'm not trying to hold anyone's feet to the fire. Sounds like you are pretty high on them, and that's what I was looking for. Hahaha, thanks for the answer.

But wow, seems like you are just unwilling to admit that you have probably blown this whole thing out of proportion, and still want to argue over semantics.

On paper (i.e. the bracket), they are a #1 seed. So they are anticipated as a #1 seed, to be a FF team. And they are a #1 seed because they are undefeated.

I just think that my opinion is that they are not good enough to be the number one seed that they will get. On paper, they are a #1 seed, I think they are probably more like a #3 seed.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

No I wasn't trying to argue at all. I answered my first two posts both answered your question(which was in agreement with others)

All I was saying is that based off of everything they have accomplished there is no way to say they are more of a 3 seed or anything.

The simple fact is. They are a team that is capable of going to the final 4 or winnign the whole thing. But like every team they could be knocked off based on match ups.

As milia said they are one of the top 8 teams so the average would be elite 8 at best. Saying they do worse then that at this point is just close your eyes and pray they make you look smart because objectively they have done nothing to show they are not one of the 8 best at least and a real final 4 contender.

I say they make the elite 8 forsure.

 

[CatsTopPac]

You mean "one of the top 8 teams *at worst, right?

Anyway. One could say potentially, that any of the top 1-4 seeds have a shot and are capable. But that's kind of a given, so that's why I was asking about the personal preference.

I think they have a shot. I just think that not only do they not have a better shot than any other #1 seed, but I also thing that there are #2 and #3 seeds that have a better shot, at even making the FF.


And finally, so that we don't beat a dead horse here. I'm not saying that they have not done what has been asked. They are undefeated. I get it. But I just think that there are a number of teams that would also be undefeated if they has only played one top 25 team, 2 top 50 teams, and the rest sub 50 opponents. And I don't even think that all of them are FF teams. Basically, I am saying that they have done everything they have been asked to do, but they have not been tested enough for me to believe that they will get to the FF. I feel that I can say that without just closing my eyes and hoping I look smart. They haven't even played a team that I consider to be an Elite Eight team, let alone a FF team, so how could I say that they are an Elite Eight team, or even a FF team. I would argue that there is more of a possibility that the closing of eyes and hoping to look smart would be to say that they are a FF team. Just because they beat up on a whole lot of shitty teams, doesn't show me that they can make it to Dallas. It just shows me that they can run through an easy schedule. I felt the same way about Gonzaga last year. Gonzaga was the #1 team, a #1 seed, and 31-2 entering the tourney last year. They didn't look like a team that would make it past the Sweet 16, because they had run through an easy schedule, and didn't play but a couple tourney teams last year. It didn't seem to me like they were prepared to play the gauntlet of the tourney to me. I feel the same way about WSU this year. Everyone was looking to beat Gonzaga, and this year, everyone is going to be looking to beat the undefeated team.

I think the only thing that is impressive about going undefeated, is the fact that they just didn't lose; like they beat the odds. But it's not like they played a tough schedule, or that they played even a respectable conference. Their best in-conference opponent has an RPI of 73. That's terrible.

I think it is completely rational to believe that they cannot beat a top 5,10,15, or even 20 team in the tourney, if they haven't done so all year. And it's also rational to believe that when it comes down to it, StL (being their best win) losing to Dayton probably drops them to around the 22-25 mark. If that's the best team they've faced all year, and that was back in December, then they have definitely not shown me that they can compete for a FF, or even an EE. So I'm not praying that I look smart. I haven't seen anything to actually show me that they can beat a team past the first weekend. I haven't seen it. Can you show me somewhere that they have beaten a team that will be a 1-4 seed that I should look to, which says that I should expect them to beat them. Or am I just looking at them beating up on a bunch of teams that won't make it near the tourney? Have they beaten teams that are going to be 2-4 seeds that tells me that it's insane that they are anything but a #1 seed, or again, are we just going off the fact that they are beating up on a bunch of teams that won't make the tourney (oh, don't let me forget about the two bubble teams and the fringe top 25 team they beat back in December, I don't want to forget about them).

 

[Red_Alert]

MVC Tourney Final on CBS right now.

Wichita St needs to win this or an At Large gets taken by Indiana St. (RPI #78)