Giants sign Daniel Jones...

[Dude]

You get... the Kansas City Chiefs who have been to 3 of the last 4 SB's? Bottom line is if that top money is going to the right QB, it's always worth it. When you pay top money to merely good or even mediocre, that's when you get in trouble. Best of luck to the Giants, but...

QB needs help and a great coach will do that. Few teams have achieved that kind of connection between HC and QB.

 

[Anointed One]

 

[SteelersPride]

He'll finally develop in that same offense for a few years.

He played solid gutsy ball last year with nothing to work with.

Rarely agree with you. But I do here. His advanced metrics were really fn good.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

This is another one of those wait and see situations. Depends on how the contract is structured and whether the Giants actually get some players around Jones to see how this pans out. There's been a few mentions among pundits about Jones having less TD passes then games played but considering the WR room, is that really all on him? Under Daboll, he finally was able to have good coaching and improved his two most glaring problems. Ball security and pocket presence. A little stability and continued development and this may end up being a smarter move than people think.
Of course, they could have avoided this for a year by picking up his option last year but they didn't know he would be so much better under Daboll. The one other option here would have been to FT Jones for one year to see how it goes and give Saquon a 2 year deal at a mid range price with incentives considering his injury history. They could mask it as a 3 year deal to make it look good like the Geno deal but we all know what it would be.

 

[fastforward]

How much did the earlier guys earn, way back in the 1980s or 90s? Nothing, compared to today’s going rate. There needs to be a ceiling on QB price, or is it going to spiral upwards forever?

The NFL didn't generate anywhere near the level of income in the 80s and 90s. Players were paid in comparison to what the NFL earned.

Like many fans you aren't looking at the cause and effect nature of the situation. The salary cap is set by league income. Historically NFL income is increasing by 8% per year. Rookie salaries for top prospects coming out of college is artificially low. Players are on fixed contracts for their 1st 3, 4 or 5 seasons. Rookie contracts are going up incrementally but it only equates to about 3% per year. The value of bottom end free agents is set by the equivalent players on rookie contracts - so bottom end FA pay is only going up by 3% per year. Teams are required to spend the salary cap money and teams can't pay those at the bottom. The most sensible thing for teams to do is pay superstars rather than mid tier FAs.

Increasing high Draft pick rookie contracts, increasing the average annual increase in rookie pay, paying proven-performance, rookie salary players more in years 3 & 4, increasing RFA tag values, and increasing practice squad sizes are all partial solutions to combating high percentage annual increases in superstar pay.

 

[Sparhawk]

 

[fightinfunbags]

How much did the earlier guys earn, way back in the 1980s or 90s? Nothing, compared to today’s going rate. There needs to be a ceiling on QB price, or is it going to spiral upwards forever?

I don’t understand why this is a problem? The NFL revenue is increasing. Why shouldn’t players be compensated when they are the talent that drives the product?

 

[fightinfunbags]

Who got the best bargain of the last few days between Carr, Geno and now DJ?

I mean, is Daniel Jones that much better than Geno? Is he even better than Geno at all?

The rules have changed because of the price of QBs. I don’t think there’s a such thing as value anymore because all of these guys are getting high cap percentage numbers. There are now 3 grades for QBs: franchise QB, on their way to franchise QB, or not good enough. If you think your QB is in the third group, you need to move on. Where do you slot Jones, Geno, and Carr? I don’t put any in the first group. It’s debatable who is in the 2nd group. I have Geno and Jones in the last group. Carr is a wild card for me. So I guess to answer your question I would say Carr. He’s the only QB of the group I can project a possibility of winning big if they have a quality roster around them.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

The NFL didn't generate anywhere near the level of income in the 80s and 90s. Players were paid in comparison to what the NFL earned.

Like many fans you aren't looking at the cause and effect nature of the situation. The salary cap is set by league income. Historically NFL income is increasing by 8% per year. Rookie salaries for top prospects coming out of college is artificially low. Players are on fixed contracts for their 1st 3, 4 or 5 seasons. Rookie contracts are going up incrementally but it only equates to about 3% per year. The value of bottom end free agents is set by the equivalent players on rookie contracts - so bottom end FA pay is only going up by 3% per year. Teams are required to spend the salary cap money and teams can't pay those at the bottom. The most sensible thing for teams to do is pay superstars rather than mid tier FAs.

Increasing high Draft pick rookie contracts, increasing the average annual increase in rookie pay, paying proven-performance, rookie salary players more in years 3 & 4, increasing RFA tag values, and increasing practice squad sizes are all partial solutions to combating high percentage annual increases in superstar pay.

Yeah, I agree. There's a lot more that goes into this than just a dollar amount. The world, as a whole, has a lot more money floating around then it did even 20 years ago. Also, back in the day, highly drafted rookie QBs were being paid high rookie deals. Sam Bradford got 50 mil guaranteed before he even took an NFL snap. It was smart to scale that back, imo and give teams a little breathing room and options. QBs are somewhat overpaid and always were but it's not as bad as people make it out to be. The league allots a certain percentage of revenue to the salary cap under the CBA and the lions share goes to the superstars. Just the way it is.

 

[Gman]

Two factors folks keep leaving out of their calculation on Jones are his age and his legs.

DJ is only 25, and he's (quietly, I guess) one of the best running QB's in football.

 

[Iggloo]

Jones has been the victim of terrible coaching staffs (Joe Judge) and questionable GMs, which left him playing behind shoddy offensive lines with mediocre talent around him at most positions. Last year he looked a little better for a while with a new regime. But I still question his overall ability and think this contract will likely prove to be a mistake. That said, this is the problem many teams find themselves in: Do you sign your mediocre starting QB or risk getting worse if you let him go?

 

[jarntt]

How much did the earlier guys earn, way back in the 1980s or 90s? Nothing, compared to today’s going rate. There needs to be a ceiling on QB price, or is it going to spiral upwards forever?

Look at other positions too. They are all going up at a similar (or at least somewhat similar) rate. The price will keep going up until owners realize they are better off letting a non-elite QB go than to give him $45M per. It's an individual decision they all need to make and so far few have. This idea that the next man up gets more is ridiculous. Jones was borderline going to be replaced a year or so back and Geno was barely in the league and look what one good year gets them. Same will happen for Hurts soon.

If Mahomes is a $45M guy then these other guys aren't in that range. That's the biggest advantage for KC and teams with elite QBs. All of these guys are paid in the same range and they aren't of the same quality. I struggle to see how it's better to keep an average QB at $45M per than it is to trade him (probably a year earlier) for 2 first round picks and start a young guy or journeyman and still have $40Mish to spend on other free agents. I'm not sure it's a coincidence that the final 4 teams had 3 cheap QBs and one elite QB. QB is the most important position by a mile, but I don't think the blueprint is paying an average one $45M per in a cap world.

 

[Gman]

Jones has been the victim of terrible coaching staffs (Joe Judge) and questionable GMs, which left him playing behind shoddy offensive lines with mediocre talent around him at most positions. Last year he looked a little better for a while with a new regime. But I still question his overall ability and think this contract will likely prove to be a mistake. That said, this is the problem many teams find themselves in: Do you sign your mediocre starting QB or risk getting worse if you let him go?

Perhaps.

Jones isn't a sure thing... and this contract isn't a sure thing.

Why I like the bet, though, is I like Jones' character. He is hard working, tough, and doesn't complain or cause drama. You never hear a bad word about him from his teammates.

I enjoy rooting for him... and I'm hoping for the best.

 

[FaCe-LeE-uS]

 

[Gman]

Here's an additional and more nuanced breakdown of Daniel Jones' contract that I came across:

4-year deal came with $36m signing bonus. Base salaries are $9.5m (23), $36.5m (24), $30m (25) & $46.5m (26).

The #Giants guaranteed his entire '23 and '24 base salaries. $12m of Jones' $30m '25 base becomes GTD if he's on roster 5th day of 2025 league year, while $12m is GTD for injury at signing.

There are no guarantees for the final year ($46.5m).

Jones' cap hits are as follows:
2023: $18.5m
2024: $45.5m
2025: $39.5m
2026: $55.5m

Giants *can* get out of contract after 2024 if they were to release Jones before the 5th day of the 2025 league year (and before the $12m vests). More likely: It's a 3-year deal.

Cut after '25: $46.5 save, $9m dead.

AAV for 3 years: $37.3m (NYG wanted $35-$37) — 10th in NFL

The cap hits of $45.5m and $39.5m in 2024 & 2025 seem crazy, yes. However something you need to remember that Joe Schoen knows:

There will be another large cap jump in 2024, then a massive one in 2025 as TV deals hit books. What might look crazy now will not feel crazy then.

The major benefit to this contract for the #Giants is Jones' third year (2025).

If he plays how they expect him to, that $30m base/$39.5m cap hit gives #NYG SIGNFICANT fianancial flexbility a year before they would look to extend him again.

 

[fastforward]

Yeah, I agree. There's a lot more that goes into this than just a dollar amount. The world, as a whole, has a lot more money floating around then it did even 20 years ago. Also, back in the day, highly drafted rookie QBs were being paid high rookie deals. Sam Bradford got 50 mil guaranteed before he even took an NFL snap. It was smart to scale that back, imo and give teams a little breathing room and options. QBs are somewhat overpaid and always were but it's not as bad as people make it out to be. The league allots a certain percentage of revenue to the salary cap under the CBA and the lions share goes to the superstars. Just the way it is.

There was no salary cap in 2010 but in the year before and after it was $123M and $120.37M respectively. Bradford, the #1 pick of the 2010 Draft got $50M over 4 years. In 2022 the salary cap was $208.2M and the #1 pick got $37.37M over 4 years. The #1 pick has gone from about 41% of the cap, (which was too high), to 18% of the cap, (which is too low).

 

[jarntt]

Here's an additional and more nuanced breakdown of Daniel Jones' contract that I came across:

4-year deal came with $36m signing bonus. Base salaries are $9.5m (23), $36.5m (24), $30m (25) & $46.5m (26).

The #Giants guaranteed his entire '23 and '24 base salaries. $12m of Jones' $30m '25 base becomes GTD if he's on roster 5th day of 2025 league year, while $12m is GTD for injury at signing.

There are no guarantees for the final year ($46.5m).

Jones' cap hits are as follows:
2023: $18.5m
2024: $45.5m
2025: $39.5m
2026: $55.5m

Giants *can* get out of contract after 2024 if they were to release Jones before the 5th day of the 2025 league year (and before the $12m vests). More likely: It's a 3-year deal.

Cut after '25: $46.5 save, $9m dead.

AAV for 3 years: $37.3m (NYG wanted $35-$37) — 10th in NFL

The cap hits of $45.5m and $39.5m in 2024 & 2025 seem crazy, yes. However something you need to remember that Joe Schoen knows:

There will be another large cap jump in 2024, then a massive one in 2025 as TV deals hit books. What might look crazy now will not feel crazy then.

The major benefit to this contract for the #Giants is Jones' third year (2025).

If he plays how they expect him to, that $30m base/$39.5m cap hit gives #NYG SIGNFICANT fianancial flexbility a year before they would look to extend him again.

3 year deal worth $112.5M or $37.5M per year. Sounds a lot more fitting. Devil is always in the details.

 

[SteelersPride]

There was no salary cap in 2010 but in the year before and after it was $123M and $120.37M respectively. Bradford, the #1 pick of the 2010 Draft got $50M over 4 years. In 2022 the salary cap was $208.2M and the #1 pick got $37.37M over 4 years. The #1 pick has gone from about 41% of the cap, (which was too high), to 18% of the cap, (which is too low).

sam bradford wasnt even the highest paid player on his team in 2011, much less 41% of the cap. Im confused.. im admittedly a bit high so forgive me.

 

[SteelersPride]

This contract is a huge win for the giants. The way this is structured is great. That and ppl just dont realize how good he was this year.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

This contract is a huge win for the giants. The way this is structured is great. That and ppl just dont realize how good he was this year.

He improved a lot this past year under Daboll. People have to quit looking at what the agents post about these deals anyway. The agents inflate the value by merely giving the total amount to make it look like a $40 mil AAV deal when it really isn't. This thing is set up so they can let Daboll do his job while improving the team around Jones and get out of it when the time comes if they need to. Let's see what happens when they get him a legit #1 WR and some weapons besides Barkley and shore up the Oline. Really, all 3 of these early signings are structured in the team's favor. I'm not expecting Jones to be Josh Allen here. I think his ceiling is limited but he can be a solid starter given the right environment and I think he can continue to improve. Tougher division, for sure but the conference is pretty weak and you never know when a guy can catch lightning in a bottle.