GDT 7/31 Giants vs Mets

[iHATEdodgers]

With Scutaro not embarrassing himself at 3B, I'd guess Bochy will have the option to play Panda at 1B, when he gets back. Let's not get too down on Belt, yes he has looked terrible a lot of time, but he's still having a much better year than Scutaro.

Much better? Really? Slightly better OPS other than that... Belt's avg is far worse, he had one week of power, and he's been striking out nearly 33% of the time as opposed to Scutaro at less than 10%. Scutaro is far more consistent too, and when Belt is scuffling he's atrocious.

Anyway I don't see this as a Scutaro vs. Belt situation... I'm just saying that with Sanchez coming back soon Posey can see some 1B in lieu of Belt once or twice a week. Which is a good thing to a certain extent.

 

[iHATEdodgers]

Done n done.

The Affeldt K was when the black magic really took.

Great win. Honored the SFPD. Timmy had his moments again but rose to the the occasion. Affeldt was most impressive. His hook had tremendous bite tonight.

Conclusions: still need to fix the offense but adding Scutaro, Pablo, and Pence will be a big boost over some of the bench guys that are forced to play

Thats the point right there... When Pablo comes back does that mean Arias is gone? Whiteside? Christian? It's not gonna be Belt or Craw. Whiteside gives us more options up here... I think Arias has outlived his usefulness personally.

 

[SFAnthem]

Thats the point right there... When Pablo comes back does that mean Arias is gone? Whiteside? Christian? It's not gonna be Belt or Craw. Whiteside gives us more options up here... I think Arias has outlived his usefulness personally.

I wouldn't mind having him as a defensive backup to Pablo but yeah, with Scutaro, he's probably on borrowed time

 

[gp956]

Much better? Really? Slightly better OPS other than that... Belt's avg is far worse, he had one week of power, and he's been striking out nearly 33% of the time as opposed to Scutaro at less than 10%. Scutaro is far more consistent too, and when Belt is scuffling he's atrocious.

Anyway I don't see this as a Scutaro vs. Belt situation... I'm just saying that with Sanchez coming back soon Posey can see some 1B in lieu of Belt once or twice a week. Which is a good thing to a certain extent.

Strikeouts are just outs. This year, and so far, Belt is much better than Scutaro: 99 > 79 wRC+, i.e. park and league adjusted wOBA. Yes, Scutaro is more consistent, and will put up a good AB consistently regardless of the situation, but overall he fails at a much greater rate than Belt. And let's face it - Scutaro struckout looking last night with the game on the line and booted an out into a run scoring play - so he's not immune to shrinking in the moment.

Regardless of whether it's Belt vs. anybody, if you move someone to 1B, then someone is going to be inserted in lieu of Belt. If the idea is to put up the best offensive lineup then Belt needs to be in there most of the time - in the average situation and with the players currently on the roster.

 

[gp956]

Thats the point right there... When Pablo comes back does that mean Arias is gone? Whiteside? Christian? It's not gonna be Belt or Craw. Whiteside gives us more options up here... I think Arias has outlived his usefulness personally.

Arias is on the bubble, but he's more useful than Christian or Whiteside. I keep Arias and Pill. And make sure Belt gets some work shagging fly balls.

 

[iHATEdodgers]

Strikeouts are just outs. This year, and so far, Belt is much better than Scutaro: 99 > 79 wRC+, i.e. park and league adjusted wOBA. Yes, Scutaro is more consistent, and will put up a good AB consistently regardless of the situation, but overall he fails at a much greater rate than Belt. And let's face it - Scutaro struckout looking last night with the game on the line - so he's not immune to shrinking in the moment.

Regardless of whether it's Belt vs. anybody, if you move someone to 1B, then someone is going to be inserted in lieu of Belt. If the idea is to put up the best offensive lineup then Belt needs to be in there most of the time - in the average situation and with the players currently on the roster.

Strikeouts are not just outs as your example from last night shows. I'd much rather have my guys making contact because at the very least you never know whats going to happen whereas you always know what's going to happen when you strikeout. And 33% is a horrific rate.

I can't believe someone is trying to argue that this offense is better off with Belt in it - especially the way he's swinging it right now. Hitting .194 for an entire month is just not acceptable. He flashed power for 3 days in Houston, rest of the year it's been popguns and blanks. How does your wRC+ account for that? And bullshit Scutaro fails at a "much greater rate" than Belt. Obp .340 to .326 is barely a difference.

If you move Posey to 1B and have Sanchez catch - that right there is a better lineup than one with Belt in it. I'm not advocating for that, but to say our best lineup includes Belt is unfortunately fantasy at this point. Right now he's looking more like Damon Minor or Lance Niekro than Grade A Prospect - although I hope he turns it around.

 

[iHATEdodgers]

Arias is on the bubble, but he's more useful than Christian or Whiteside. I keep Arias and Pill. And make sure Belt gets some work shagging fly balls.

His .610 ops is hardly useful... I cant argue it's any worse than whatever it is Christian is attempting to bring to the plate... But I think Whiteside's use is that he opens up late game options for using Sanchez as a pinch hitter etc. - which I think is more valuable than whatever it is Arias brings to the plate.

I wouldn't mind Christian being sent down over Arias basically scraping the barrel anyway.

 

[gp956]

Strikeouts are not just outs as your example from last night shows. I'd much rather have my guys making contact because at the very least you never know whats going to happen whereas you always know what's going to happen when you strikeout. And 33% is a horrific rate.

I can't believe someone is trying to argue that this offense is better off with Belt in it - especially the way he's swinging it right now. Hitting .194 for an entire month is just not acceptable. He flashed power for 3 days in Houston, rest of the year it's been popguns and blanks. How does your wRC+ account for that? And bullshit Scutaro fails at a "much greater rate" than Belt. Obp .340 to .326 is barely a difference.

If you move Posey to 1B and have Sanchez catch - that right there is a better lineup than one with Belt in it. I'm not advocating for that, but to say our best lineup includes Belt is unfortunately fantasy at this point. Right now he's looking more like Damon Minor or Lance Niekro than Grade A Prospect - although I hope he turns it around.

Sometimes when you make contact you make two outs. A strikeout can look bad, but it's effect on overall production, compared to other modes of outs, is very very small. That might be the biggest insight into the game you can acquire, i.e to not overweight the negative impact of the strikeout. It's something every young player seems to have to come to grips with at some point. Allows them to work deeper into counts and eventually get better pitches to hit.

I'm a big Hector fan, but he isn't producing overall at the rate Belt is. That's just a fact. Neither is Scutaro. And those are just what the numbers say - so I'm not sure why you think that is such an unbelievable thing to "argue". So long as Belt does not get so down on himself that he starts giving away every AB, I'd keep him in there.

 

[gp956]

His .610 ops is hardly useful... I cant argue it's any worse than whatever it is Christian is attempting to bring to the plate... But I think Whiteside's use is that he opens up late game options for using Sanchez as a pinch hitter etc. - which I think is more valuable than whatever it is Arias brings to the plate.

I wouldn't mind Christian being sent down over Arias basically scraping the barrel anyway.

I like Arias' wheels - the guy might be the fastest guy on the team. And, obviously, he can play anywhere in the MI and 3B without any downgrade in defense (perhaps a slight uptick, in fact). That's pretty useful to me.

 

[iHATEdodgers]

Sometimes when you make contact you make two outs. A strikeout can look bad, but it's effect on overall production, compared to other modes of outs, is very very small. That might be the biggest insight into the game you can acquire, i.e to not overweight the negative impact of the strikeout. It's something every young player seems to have to come to grips with at some point. Allows them to work deeper into counts and eventually get better pitches to hit.

I'm a big Hector fan, but he isn't producing overall at the rate Belt is. That's just a fact. Neither is Scutaro. And those are just what the numbers say. So long as Belt does not get so down on himself that he starts giving away every AB, I'd keep him in there.

The worst case scenario when you make contact is two outs (3 if you're really unlucky) the worst and best case when you strikeout is you make 1 out. You are right it was much better that Scutaro struck out there! Sure was glad he didn't swing let aline make contact, he might have made an out! When you have a guy who is going to K 33% of he time and is not flexing any power you have a problem. You cannot defend a strikeout rate of 33% combined with his near total lack of power.

It is not a fact that Hector producing less than Belt and it is not a fact that Scutaro fails at "a much greater rate" than Belt. It's all about producing runs on offense and Hector has driven in 75% as many runs in approximately 100% fewer ABs. Scutaro brings consistency to the plate Belt brings monthlong sub .200 I prefer these stats over wRC+

 

[SFAnthem]

Strikeouts are just outs. This year, and so far, Belt is much better than Scutaro: 99 > 79 wRC+, i.e. park and league adjusted wOBA. Yes, Scutaro is more consistent, and will put up a good AB consistently regardless of the situation, but overall he fails at a much greater rate than Belt. And let's face it - Scutaro struckout looking last night with the game on the line and booted an out into a run scoring play - so he's not immune to shrinking in the moment.

Regardless of whether it's Belt vs. anybody, if you move someone to 1B, then someone is going to be inserted in lieu of Belt. If the idea is to put up the best offensive lineup then Belt needs to be in there most of the time - in the average situation and with the players currently on the roster.

Strikeouts are not just outs when the situation benefits from a ball in play. Moving up the runner, getting a runner in from third < 2 outs, etc.

I do want Belt in there most of the time but just looking at tonight's game, that hole up and in might be opened again.

 

[SFAnthem]

I'm just fucking around.

He's more of a narc.

ding ding ding

I'm sending my report in tomorrow..

I enjoy breaking laws too much to be a cop (not that stops a few cops I know) but the good ones and there are many, deserve to be recognized.

 

[SFAnthem]

Arias is on the bubble, but he's more useful than Christian or Whiteside. I keep Arias and Pill. And make sure Belt gets some work shagging fly balls.

Once those two are gone, he will be the least useful guy..which isnt too bad.

Pinch runner and defensive glove is fine. The one thing I do like is that he plays clutch in big situations.

 

[SFAnthem]

I've always considered THAT to be like the SuperPerfect game. Or would it be 81 strikes thrown, 27 Ks? Repped.

Great slumpbusting game. Timmy at home...I'm back to having faith in him (the road, not so much). We are going to be good when full strength. Really excited.

Off on vaca for a week, brings us a 5-1 record while I'm out!

Have a good vacation, msg

Not trying to sour on Timmy's start, but he is still start to start. Felt good to watch him pitch strong again.

 

[gp956]

The worst case scenario when you make contact is two outs (3 if you're really unlucky) the worst and best case when you strikeout is you make 1 out. You are right it was much better that Scutaro struck out there! Sure was glad he didn't swing let aline make contact, he might have made an out! When you have a guy who is going to K 33% of he time and is not flexing any power you have a problem. You cannot defend a strikeout rate of 33% combined with his near total lack of power.

It is not a fact that Hector producing less than Belt and it is not a fact that Scutaro fails at "a much greater rate" than Belt. It's all about producing runs on offense and Hector has driven in 75% as many runs in approximately 100% fewer ABs. Scutaro brings consistency to the plate Belt brings monthlong sub .200 I prefer these stats over wRC+

It's obvious we have different considerations about what is important about this game. I do agree with one thing though, 33% is too high for a major league hitter. And Belt, who is at 27%, needs to bring it down a bit - he's 7% higher than the NL average. Just to put things in perspective.

BTW, RBI is the least indicative stat I can think of. I pay zero attention to it.

 

[gp956]

Strikeouts are not just outs when the situation benefits from a ball in play. Moving up the runner, getting a runner in from third < 2 outs, etc.

I do want Belt in there most of the time but just looking at tonight's game, that hole up and in might be opened again.

Yeah, all that has been quantified decades ago. Those are the wrong arguments to make. The difference in expected run production between a K and any other out is is around .01 or .02 runs per out. So a player who is 100 strikeouts worse than average means that he costs 1 to 2 runs a year, or IOW roughly 15% of one win.

What I'm talking about with Belt is all about his hitting approach. He shouldn't flail early in the count, swinging at pitcher's pitches just to prevent a strikeout. That's not a recipe for success for him. In fact, it will kill his productivity, since much of his value as hitter right now comes from his ability to get a walk.

When I hear Bochy talking about Brandon getting a good pitch to hit and doing something with it, this is what I think he's talking about. It's about not being afraid to strikeout and thus working deeper into counts and presumably getting better pitches to hit, with the ultimate result of a higher BABIP, higher productivity, and a K and walk rate that can be thought of as simply a residual artifact of a good approach.

 

[gp956]

Yeah, all that has been quantified decades ago. Those are the wrong arguments to make. The difference in expected run production between a K and any other out is is around .01 or .02 runs per out. So a player who is 100 strikeouts worse than average means that he costs 1 to 2 runs a year, or IOW roughly 15% of one win.

What I'm talking about with Belt is all about his hitting approach. He shouldn't flail early in the count, swinging at pitcher's pitches just to prevent a strikeout. That's not a recipe for success for him. In fact, it will kill his productivity, since much of his value as hitter right now comes from his ability to get a walk.

When I hear Bochy talking about Brandon getting a good pitch to hit and doing something with it, this is what I think he's talking about. It's about not being afraid to strikeout and thus working deeper into counts and presumably getting better pitches to hit, with the ultimate result of a higher BABIP, higher productivity, and a K and walk rate that can be thought of as simply a residual artifact of a good approach.

And, BTW, this is where Scutaro and Chez3 already are. Both work a count, seem unconcerned about getting to two strikes, and tend to square up the balls they put in play. And yet, despite that observation, both are producing at a lower rate than Belt. Although, chez3 will get a lot better when we gets more reps under his belt and after he learns the league.

 

[ColinCoby]

I'd have an easier time dealing with Belt's K rate if he had more extra base hits.

 

[gp956]

I'd have an easier time dealing with Belt's K rate if he had more than extra base hits.

Me too.

 

[SFAnthem]

Yeah, all that has been quantified decades ago. Those are the wrong arguments to make. The difference in expected run production between a K and any other out is is around .01 or .02 runs per out. So a player who is 100 strikeouts worse than average means that he costs 1 to 2 runs a year, or IOW roughly 15% of one win.

What I'm talking about with Belt is all about his hitting approach. He shouldn't flail early in the count, swinging at pitcher's pitches just to prevent a strikeout. That's not a recipe for success for him. In fact, it will kill his productivity, since much of his value as hitter right now comes from his ability to get a walk.

When I hear Bochy talking about Brandon getting a good pitch to hit and doing something with it, this is what I think he's talking about. It's about not being afraid to strikeout and thus working deeper into counts and presumably getting better pitches to hit, with the ultimate result of a higher BABIP, higher productivity, and a K and walk rate that can be thought of as simply a residual artifact of a good approach.

Ah, gotcha

Echoing what Colin said.

The lack of clutch hits makes a strikeout look worse by contrast.


Chatting it up with folks from the stadium, survey has generally three camps regarding Belt.
1) Demote/trade him. Of course, they dont have a ready solution after that. They were also the type to start the wave at AT&T That got shut down real fast.
2) Staunch supporters. He's young and using Matt Williams as their primary defense for not giving up on power hitters. One was wearing giraffe pajamas tho..
3) management jimmy-jacked him, moonlighting therapists. When Pence and Pablo come back, there will be less pressure for him to contribute and he can regain confidence without the burden of being a middle of the order hitter