Future Pitching

[magnumo]

Actually, I'm talking about the Bucs' rotation..... beyond this year. (Huntington has shown the ability to build a decent bullpen each season he's been here.)

I'm convinced that McDonald is a keeper, and we need to hope that Morton continues to develop into a reliable starter. Karstens has been surprising me now for 2/3 of the season; hopefully, he can continue to pitch well going forward. And it's likely that we're stuck with Correia, since he's under contract for next season.

That leaves Maholm. Up until this season, I would have said that there's no way the Pirates exercise his option for 2012. Although I've read reports that the Pirates could offer him a multi-year extension to replace that option, I still don't expect that to happen. I just don't think he's worth $10 million per season (the minimum I would expect him to be worth on the open market, IF he maintains his ERA below 4).

I guess it's possible that the current rotation will start the 2012 Pirate season, but I will continue to hope for improvement..... a challenge from Ohlendorf, Lincoln, Dan McCutchen, Watson, Garrett Olson, Justin Wilson, whomever..... or someone acquired in trade.

On the other hand, if the offense were better, perhaps the existing rotation would be good enough. Any thoughts?

 

[element1286]

McDonald, Karstens and Morton are locks to be in the rotation next, IMO.

I hope they pick up Maholm's option, or sign him to a small extension (2-3 years).

I don't know what happened to Corriea, but his k/9 have dropped significantly this year. And he isn't much of an innings eater. I'd have him in competition next year for a job.

After that; Lincoln, Ohlendorf, and Owens in that order.

 

[Darkstone42]

I might be inclined to move Correia into long relief next year since he seems to peter out after a while. I just don't think he can handle as many innings as he's tried to pitch this year. I think he'd be more effective over the course of a season pitching fewer innings.

 

[thecrow124]

If Paul doesn't get hurt, I think we bring him back. The Pirates don't seem to be very high on any of their upper level minor league pitchers. I also think Morton and McDonald are locks for the rotation, Correia's deal isn't huge, but would be expensive in a bullpen role, so I think he gets a good long look also. That leaves one spot, and I am pretty sure that the organization wants Ohlendorf in the rotation, so it will be his to lose. Oddly enough, I think Karstens is the odd man out, which is ok because he really doesn't have the pitches or the ability of any of the others listed, and is probably better out of the bullpen anyway.
However, looking at the bullpen this year and going forward, I think Ohlendorf would be a very good 8th inning guy. His pitches should be better in a 1 inning stint instead of continually trying to stretch him out in the rotation and him getting hurt.

 

[magnumo]

Hey, crow..... I hope you're wrong about Karstens. Maybe his control is good enough (when he pitches regularly) to get by with less than stellar stuff. At any rate, it's hard to argue against a 2.49 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. I don't see how any team could take him out of the rotation as long as he sustains numbers even close to those.

(And it's good to talk with you again.)

 

[MA5TER5HAKE]

Think the Pirates want Paul back. The organization seems to like him and he likes being here. He never gets hurt, keeps you in most games, outside of the occasional clunker. I'm guessing an extension will be worked out

 

[Darkstone42]

Think the Pirates want Paul back. The organization seems to like him and he likes being here. He never gets hurt, keeps you in most games, outside of the occasional clunker. I'm guessing an extension will be worked out

I agree with this. He wanted to be a part of the turnaround, it seems that he has, now let him contribute to the rise.

 

[thecrow124]

I expected a regression for Karstens, but I didn't expect him to regress to his career norm in one game. Wow he got shelled last night.

 

[magnumo]

I expected a regression for Karstens, but I didn't expect him to regress to his career norm in one game. Wow he got shelled last night.

You called that one.

Karstens ERA jumped from 2.49 to 3.05 and his WHIP is up to 1.13. I'm hoping last night was a one-game aberration. This team desperately needs the rotation to get back on track.

 

[thedddd]

I had a feeling the regression would occur. Honestly it seems like one game but his last four starts haven't been great: 0-2, 22.1 IP, 30 hits, 18 runs - 16 earned. The one positive is his control has stayed. His last three starts prior to this implosion were not bad but if you look at the trend the regression was starting.

As for next year I can see McDonald, Morton, Maholm and Ohlendorf the top 4 with Correia, Karstens, or Lincoln for the bottom 1. With the loser of Correia/Karstens in long relief and Lincoln back in AAA or maybe dealt?

I know it is early and never above AA but with the way McPherson has pitched in AA I wonder if would get a September callup for a start? Didn't realize how well his strikeout totals are. (Only under the assumption the game does not have playoff implications)

 

[thecrow124]

I had a feeling the regression would occur. Honestly it seems like one game but his last four starts haven't been great: 0-2, 22.1 IP, 30 hits, 18 runs - 16 earned. The one positive is his control has stayed. His last three starts prior to this implosion were not bad but if you look at the trend the regression was starting.

As for next year I can see McDonald, Morton, Maholm and Ohlendorf the top 4 with Correia, Karstens, or Lincoln for the bottom 1. With the loser of Correia/Karstens in long relief and Lincoln back in AAA or maybe dealt?

I know it is early and never above AA but with the way McPherson has pitched in AA I wonder if would get a September callup for a start? Didn't realize how well his strikeout totals are. (Only under the assumption the game does not have playoff implications)

He has to be getting really close to his innings limit, so I wouldn't expect a call-up. Actually I don't see many people other than ones that have already been up coming up. Possibly Rudy Owens, but thats about it.

 

[element1286]

I think we see Owens in September; he's still 40 innings under his total from last year. They should want to build up his arm strength since he should be getting a shot at the rotation next year at some point.

 

[thedddd]

He has to be getting really close to his innings limit, so I wouldn't expect a call-up. Actually I don't see many people other than ones that have already been up coming up. Possibly Rudy Owens, but thats about it.

Good point didn't think of that.

Owens is a good thought and if below the innings limit probably a good thing to give him a start in the majors.

 

[Darkstone42]

Has Morton turned it around? He's looked good tonight for the second straight start.

If he's able to finish this season strong, he'll be a very valuable member of our rotation next year because he can be a valuable member of a very good rotation.

 

[Illinest]

Morton only has one effective pitch against lefties I think. Curveball.
I think his effectiveness goes hand in hand with how well he's placing the curveball and how many good lefties he has to face.

I definitely hope Morton can work out a better plan for LH hitters this offseason.

 

[magnumo]

Looks like it might be time to update our speculation about next year's rotation:

- Morton, McDonald, and Karstens appear to be set (barring a trade).

- Maholm's fate may be sealed by how Lincoln and Ohlendorf perform for the balance of the season. If both pitch well, I'm guessing the team may not pick up Maholm's option.

- Assuming Correia recovers, he likely will be in the mix for 2012, given his first half performance and his contract.

- Lincoln pitched well yesterday. With both Correia and Maholm on the DL, it appears that he's going to get a chance to make a statement for himself.

- Ohlendorf may be at make-or-break time, and it looks like the injuries to Correia and Maholm will give him a chance to determine his own fate. If he doesn't pitch well, it seems at least possible that the Pirates won't offer him arbitration again.

Other candidates?

- Rudy Owens' less-than-stellar performance and his current DL status have probably removed him from near-term consideration.

- Likewise, since Justin Wilson has been moved to the bullpen, he also appears to be out of the mix.

- Poor Donald Veal..... still on the DL. Very low probability there.

- Brian Burres and Sean Gallagher seem unlikely. Hopefully, this team is beyond seriously considering either of those guys for a steady gig in the starting rotation.

That leaves 3 long shots at Indianapolis.....

- Jeff Locke has started out well at Indy after a good performance at Altoona, but he needs to sustain his performance beyond a couple of starts at AAA to get serious consideration.

- Garrett Olson has pitched surprisingly well (except for BB's). He won't be 28 until October and he's a lefty. Perhaps he's a dark horse candidate.

- And then there's Jose Ascanio. He was bad in Pittsburgh and hasn't been a whole lot better at Indy. But he just pitched 6-shutout innings in a spot start and is slated to stay in the Indy rotation. Ascanio is only 26 and has a live arm. In fact, when the Gorzelanny-Grabow trade went down, I had hopes for Ascanio as a potential starter. He seems like the longest of long-shots right now..... but it sure would be nice to salvage something from that trade.

Gotta wonder whether Huntington is going to try to find a starter in the free agent or trade markets..... someone like Correia or Scott Olsen. Perhaps that depends upon the performance of Lincoln and Ohlendorf.

 

[Illinest]

Only way I'd be okay with losing Maholm is if they use that money to get someone better.

Ascanio - I remember he had great stuff in that first game after we acquired him. There are too many questions to even consider him a dark horse, but he's the most interesting guy who is even remotely in the mix.
None of the 'other' candidates should be considered for a variety of different reasons.

Correia isn't very good. Lincoln I think is ultimately limited by the fact that he's got a fastball that is too hittable in spite of decent velocity. Ohlendorf might be okay in the rotation but there are some questions that will need to be answered.

I think Karstens, Morton and McDonald are set. Maholm is set too assuming that they pick up the option.
I would be very happy if they picked up Maholm's option AND went after a 3rd starter like they did last year with De La Rosa. Something like Correia, Lincoln, Ohlendorf, Wilson, Hanrahan, Moskos, Resop in the pen.
But we'd have to go significantly over the Nuttings' 50 million dollar ceiling to get there and it would mean going into 2012 with potentially no upgrades to the starting lineup.

- 5 mill for Overbay
+ 4 mill for Maholm
+ 10-15 mill for 3rd starter
-10 mill for Doumit, Snyder
+?? for a Catcher to pair with McKenry (bring Doumit back?)

Probably 60-65 million payroll.

1. Morton
2. Karstens
3. FA starter
4. Maholm
5. McDonald
RP. Correia, Ohlendorf, Lincoln, Wilson, Moskos, Resop
CL. Hanrahan

1. LF - Presley, Paul
2. RF - Tabata, Diaz
3. CF - McCutchen
4. 1B - Jones, Hague
5. 2B - Walker
6. 3B - Alvarez, Wood
7. C - McKenry, Doumit
8. SS - Cedeno

I could easily see the bullpen shaking out differently. A few of those guys might not be ready or suitable for that kind of role. I don't know what to do about Catcher. The rotation could be a legitimate strength. I'll be praying that Morton continues to develop and figures out a way to get lefties out. That would make him a true top of the rotation pitcher.
Then Marte would be set up as the next potential upgrade as he ought to be in AAA next year. Might sound crazy but we might be in a situation where one of those speedy outfielders could be getting playing time at first base. I don't know how that might work but Xavier Nady was a pretty decent 1B as I recall.

 

[stillmatic32]

Ohlendorf seems pretty ideal out of the pen. Not sure why they haven't tried that yet.

All of the top end pitching prospects are so far away. Would be nice to see Taillon or Cole blaze through a few levels of the minors next season. Bullpens are easily upgraded via free agency, even by small market teams. Wouldn't a 100% Meek be so awesome to have though? Remember how incredible he was last season? Could have just been a great season, but would be nice if he could get even close to that.

Need a middle of the order guy to emerge at 1B and/or 3B. By middle of the order, I don't mean that he is there by default. I mean a guy to hit 4th or 5th and OPS over .800. I love Neil Walker and he's done all you could expect batting 3rd and 4th, but we need a guy like him batting second to contend. We need that out of nowhere great bat. Cmon Hague!

 

[steelparrot]

Years of control left:

McDonald 4
Ohlendorf, Morton 3
Karstens 2
Maholm Correia 1


Not only are these guys getting expensive, they are walking towards free agency. That is why I think they let Maholm walk and let Lincoln battle it out for the 5th spot with Correia and Ohlendorf.

 

[magnumo]

Aaron Thompson?

Brought up to start today. Wow..... didn't see that one coming.

Thompson's minor league career is not very impressive.....

Aaron Thompson Baseball Stats - The Baseball Cube

Looks like he gives up a lot of hits, even when he was pitching reasonably well in the low minors..... not a good characteristic against the Brewers.