Fitzpatrick gives in and agree to 1 yr deal with NYJ

[NWPATSFAN]

Honestly at this point because they paid so much for him I would think they are thinking he needs to show more than that. I mean they won that much with Hoyer at QB so when you bring in an $18 million man you are saying that is not good enough. I would also think they have to advance in the playoffs beyond the wild card round. That is what happens with big money is big expectations come with it.

Houston was 9-7 last season. Minus Hoyer's terrible performance in the playoffs, he had a decent year.
It will be a new system for Oswieller. You can't expect miracles overnight even at $18 mil. Again that's the going price for decent starting QBs. I say 9 wins is a decent year. Worth 18 million not in the short term but over the length of the contract, assuming more years at 9 wins or better? I say it's a decent deal. Great for Os and ok for Houston. Throw in a few PO appearances and a couple PO wins and yeah it's decent. If they would somehow win the SB then yeah great deal for Hou.
There just aren't enough quality QBs out there. Only time will tell if Os is considered a decent QB.

 

[Rockinkuwait]

Honestly at this point because they paid so much for him I would think they are thinking he needs to show more than that. I mean they won that much with Hoyer at QB so when you bring in an $18 million man you are saying that is not good enough. I would also think they have to advance in the playoffs beyond the wild card round. That is what happens with big money is big expectations come with it.

It really depends on the situations... I think that you'd hope for that. But it's tough to call out a first year QB on record. Favre left GB and they went from a 13 win team to a 6 win team, but Rodgers showed he was worth that insane deal they gave him after a handful of games in the end.

If he's showing that his teammates want to follow him, that he's making smart plays, keeps away from those dreadful games (something he did well with last year), and HE plays well and shows improvement, great.

I don't buy the "well they won X with this guy the year before"... We've seen 1 win teams win a division within a year. Things change a lot. IF their division is the same strength and IF they can get their lone good win by scoring 10 points like they did against Cincy, and IF they have a top 5 D sure, you'd want more than 9 wins. If they don't do those things but go from 28th in scoring rate and yards per drive to top 10 because of the QB play.. Heck yes that's a successful year for the QB.

 

[cdumler7]

They have the cap space but that's because they don't have players to pay next year. Sure they could backload it some. Maybe not sign their new tackles and make it work for 2016 with a 8-10 mil cap hit in year 1 and a big signing bonus.

But then in 2016, say that's a 22-25 mil cap hit on the backloading. So then they are there middle of pack in cap space with Von, Ware, Sly Williams, Stewart, Paradis, Sanders and others coming off the books and even bigger issues at tackle than last year.

And while the Chiefs did do that with Houston, next year as of now they have very few players under contract for 2017 with next to no cap space (5 mil currently) so will need to make a pile of moves just to get some cap relief (not even considering what it would cost if they want to give a shot at keeping Eric Berry and Dontari Poe). And with that cap hit on Houston showing up to get above the cap this year they couldn't make competitive offers to Sean Smith, Chase Daniel, Jeff Allen, Donald Stephenson, Tyvon Branch... Sure they got Schwartz and Howard but a big net loss on talent there.

As for how he related to his benching, it is all rumor, I don't really consider that unless it comes from them or a really good set of sources. Sure maybe Kubiak lied to him when he said even if Peyton was healthy it would be his team going forward for better or worse. Maybe he did tell his agent he wanted out because of that.



And the issue with a backloaded contract of course is you are investing more years into him as well. Texans have a 2 year investment in Osweiler. As much as the Bronco's clearly wanted him with that huge guaranteed money deal they were putting up even after he supposedly had cut them off, he is still largely untested in games. If you are going big signing bonus, low early salary to get to that point, you are almost having to guarantee 3 years before it can become financially viable to move on. Flacco's deal would be an extreme example of that.

That's tough. I think the Bronco's offered the most they could under their cap restraints to not gut the roster for him, but not make it a 3 year+ committment either with backloading. Houston was able to offer more without doing those two things.

Few things here...

1) You point out my rumors that were speculation but then it doesn't seem to apply to you about the contract the Broncos offered. Many different reporters reported different values that the Broncos made towards Brock on their final offer. We have no clue what the actual final offer was because well nothing was signed. Throw in $30 million guaranteed means jack squat. How much is actually truly guaranteed if that was the total? Is some of that just injury related or is the entire $30 million for sure going in his pocket no matter what he does? So even there hard to tell what is truth and what isn't of what the Broncos truly offered. Heck the $16 million a year thought is something again we cannot verify because it could have been a very backloaded deal where he won't see that money. So no we do not really know what the Broncos try to commit to him and how interested they were in keeping him. I do know the radio silence part is real as players and coaches both have talked about that. I also do know that his agent stopped taking phone calls from the Broncos. Heck they didn't even bring the final offer by Houston back to the Broncos before signing to see if they would try to match.

2) I do know he was pretty hurt by the benching. Players have talked about that some but were impressed by him keeping a pretty cool head. I mean no player is happy to get benched before the playoffs.

3) On the Broncos cap situation. If they really wanted Osweiler and he actually thought about staying with us no it wouldn't be that hard to put some money towards next year. Here is the difference between the Chiefs and Broncos situation is they actually have way more cap space to work with in the following years. Throw in on top of that quite a bit more draft capital to work with considering the Broncos will have something like 10 picks next year with 5 of those in the first 3 rounds of the draft. They also have more players signed through this year meaning they do not have to worry quite as much about spreading that money out over quite a few open positions.

4) Paradis does not come off the books. He is a ERFA this year and will be a RFA next year. The cap situation is moot now since they didn't sign Osweiler though so shouldn't have much of a problem signing most of their FA's if they want but if they really wanted Osweiler while yes he takes up a chunk so you can't sign everybody and their dog they could have made it work and still got guys like Miller and Marshall done with still room to sign some others.

 

[NWPATSFAN]

They have the cap space but that's because they don't have players to pay next year. Sure they could backload it some. Maybe not sign their new tackles and make it work for 2016 with a 8-10 mil cap hit in year 1 and a big signing bonus.

But then in 2016, say that's a 22-25 mil cap hit on the backloading. So then they are there middle of pack in cap space with Von, Ware, Sly Williams, Stewart, Paradis, Sanders and others coming off the books and even bigger issues at tackle than last year.

And while the Chiefs did do that with Houston, next year as of now they have very few players under contract for 2017 with next to no cap space (5 mil currently) so will need to make a pile of moves just to get some cap relief (not even considering what it would cost if they want to give a shot at keeping Eric Berry and Dontari Poe). And with that cap hit on Houston showing up to get above the cap this year they couldn't make competitive offers to Sean Smith, Chase Daniel, Jeff Allen, Donald Stephenson, Tyvon Branch... Sure they got Schwartz and Howard but a big net loss on talent there.

As for how he related to his benching, it is all rumor, I don't really consider that unless it comes from them or a really good set of sources. Sure maybe Kubiak lied to him when he said even if Peyton was healthy it would be his team going forward for better or worse. Maybe he did tell his agent he wanted out because of that.



And the issue with a backloaded contract of course is you are investing more years into him as well. Texans have a 2 year investment in Osweiler. As much as the Bronco's clearly wanted him with that huge guaranteed money deal they were putting up even after he supposedly had cut them off, he is still largely untested in games. If you are going big signing bonus, low early salary to get to that point, you are almost having to guarantee 3 years before it can become financially viable to move on. Flacco's deal would be an extreme example of that.

That's tough. I think the Bronco's offered the most they could under their cap restraints to not gut the roster for him, but not make it a 3 year+ committment either with backloading. Houston was able to offer more without doing those two things.

I was wondering the same thing about potentially what may have been said to Os about his starting role? The kid gets his big chance in the NFL. Does an adequate job thru 7 starts. Then when you have helped get that team to the POs you get benched for a HOF QB. Who on most accounts isn't the friendliest of teamates when you're trying to take his job. Throw in HGH allegations and I can certainly understand Os being pissed. That's all speculation on my part. I'm not casting judgement on either side just saying there is likely more than met the eye on this entire fiasco.

 

[cdumler7]

Houston was 9-7 last season. Minus Hoyer's terrible performance in the playoffs, he had a decent year.
It will be a new system for Oswieller. You can't expect miracles overnight even at $18 mil. Again that's the going price for decent starting QBs. I say 9 wins is a decent year. Worth 18 million not in the short term but over the length of the contract, assuming more years at 9 wins or better? I say it's a decent deal. Great for Os and ok for Houston. Throw in a few PO appearances and a couple PO wins and yeah it's decent. If they would somehow win the SB then yeah great deal for Hou.
There just aren't enough quality QBs out there. Only time will tell if Os is considered a decent QB.

Like I said with money comes expectations. They to me set the base with Hoyer of making the playoffs with 9 wins and getting bumped in the playoffs. They brought in Os to better that. Now one bad year or one year of matching that doesn't destroy the thought of him but it definitely puts more pressure on the other years in my opinion. Throw in the division is tougher this year so going to be interesting to see how they handle that.

You are right though in we will have to wait to see how he does over the entirety of the contract. People were saying the Manning contract with the Broncos was Super Bowl or bust. If we hadn't won it that last year would the Manning years have been worth it? To me they still would have been but others have said he had to win a Super Bowl to justify the contract.

 

[cdumler7]

It really depends on the situations... I think that you'd hope for that. But it's tough to call out a first year QB on record. Favre left GB and they went from a 13 win team to a 6 win team, but Rodgers showed he was worth that insane deal they gave him after a handful of games in the end.

If he's showing that his teammates want to follow him, that he's making smart plays, keeps away from those dreadful games (something he did well with last year), and HE plays well and shows improvement, great.

I don't buy the "well they won X with this guy the year before"... We've seen 1 win teams win a division within a year. Things change a lot. IF their division is the same strength and IF they can get their lone good win by scoring 10 points like they did against Cincy, and IF they have a top 5 D sure, you'd want more than 9 wins. If they don't do those things but go from 28th in scoring rate and yards per drive to top 10 because of the QB play.. Heck yes that's a successful year for the QB.

The problem is that with the QB position it does come down to wins a lot. I have said this before and will say it again in that O'Brien has tied his coaching future of Houston to that of Osweiler. When you invest that much in a QB you are wanting results not just in offensive production but in the win column. They have said that they did not get enough from the QB position this past year and that they were a QB away from winning the Super Bowl. So to me that is some pretty high expectations of what Osweiler does to this team.

 

[NWPATSFAN]

Like I said with money comes expectations. They to me set the base with Hoyer of making the playoffs with 9 wins and getting bumped in the playoffs. They brought in Os to better that. Now one bad year or one year of matching that doesn't destroy the thought of him but it definitely puts more pressure on the other years in my opinion. Throw in the division is tougher this year so going to be interesting to see how they handle that.

You are right though in we will have to wait to see how he does over the entirety of the contract. People were saying the Manning contract with the Broncos was Super Bowl or bust. If we hadn't won it that last year would the Manning years have been worth it? To me they still would have been but others have said he had to win a Super Bowl to justify the contract.

IMO had the Broncos not won the SB last year, yes I think Pay-A-Ton would've earned that nickname again.

 

[cdumler7]

IMO had the Broncos not won the SB last year, yes I think Pay-A-Ton would've earned that nickname again.

And see this proves my point that there are just more expectations. If you are going to take the money then you better actually show that money was well spent. Now with Osweiler maybe not a Super Bowl win but I would say playoff births at least 3 of the 4 years is a must and the offense be a huge part why they made it to the playoffs. Then they can't get bumped wild card round every year. Otherwise why pay a QB that much when Hoyer could get you to the playoffs at a fraction of the price and you could have improved the rest of your team around him?

 

[NWPATSFAN]

The problem is that with the QB position it does come down to wins a lot. I have said this before and will say it again in that O'Brien has tied his coaching future of Houston to that of Osweiler. When you invest that much in a QB you are wanting results not just in offensive production but in the win column. They have said that they did not get enough from the QB position this past year and that they were a QB away from winning the Super Bowl. So to me that is some pretty high expectations of what Osweiler does to this team.

Cd just because Denver didn't feel like Os was worth 16-18 a year. Or no amount of money was going to get it done doesn't matter. 18 million is right on average what starting QBs are getting after their initial contracts.

 

[cdumler7]

Cd just because Denver didn't feel like Os was worth 16-18 a year. Or no amount of money was going to get it done doesn't matter. 18 million is right on average what starting QBs are getting after their initial contracts.

Oh I agree that is what starting QB's are making these days. Depending who you listen to the Broncos first offer to Osweiler was either 3-years/$13 million or 3-years/$24 million. I'm leaning towards the 2nd being their true first offer to him which in some ways shows what they thought of him. A high quality back up with potential to be more. They wanted another year to see what he actually was before committing big money to him. I don't blame the Texans at all for taking a chance at the QB position and hoping he lives up to the hype from when the Broncos first drafted him. It is a risk though to commit the money they did but at the same time it is a risk for the Broncos to have possibly let a franchise QB walk out the door. Just have to see how it plays out.

 

[NWPATSFAN]

And see this proves my point that there are just more expectations. If you are going to take the money then you better actually show that money was well spent. Now with Osweiler maybe not a Super Bowl win but I would say playoff births at least 3 of the 4 years is a must and the offense be a huge part why they made it to the playoffs. Then they can't get bumped wild card round every year. Otherwise why pay a QB that much when Hoyer could get you to the playoffs at a fraction of the price and you could have improved the rest of your team around him?

It's a roll of the dice. There was no guarentee that PM was bringing a SB to Denver. A lot of things needed to happen to even make it happen. PMs contract was incentive laden, part was passing a physical for his neck, and he was how old? All PM had going for him was his HOF career stats.
So yes many fans outside Denver think he got way over paid. Who are we to judge? Not our money and it paid off with the ultimate prize.

So with your opinion of Obrien woukd that hold true for Kubiac and Elway if they didn't bring a SB home?

 

[cdumler7]

It's a roll of the dice. There was no guarentee that PM was bringing a SB to Denver. A lot of things needed to happen to even make it happen. PMs contract was incentive laden, part was passing a physical for his neck, and he was how old? All PM had going for him was his HOF career stats.
So yes many fans outside Denver think he got way over paid. Who are we to judge? Not our money and it paid off with the ultimate prize.

So with your opinion of Obrien woukd that hold true for Kubiac and Elway if they didn't bring a SB home?

Well I think both of our franchises have some of the highest standards. You higher a GM and Coach with the idea that they are going to make great decisions that win you a Super Bowl. Let's say Kubiak and Elway didn't win a Super Bowl this past year and say 5-years from now even though we have made the playoffs say 4 of the 5 years yet haven't won the Super Bowl. Well I would start questioning whether it was time to take our team in another direction. I mean that is why we fired Fox because he couldn't deliver us a Super Bowl and he and Elway started disagreeing on what that would take.

I agree you never know what you are getting when you invest big money. At the same time us fans when we see that kind of money being committed do have bigger expectations. To me say the Broncos did get Osweiler signed for a $12 million a year contract. My expectations of him are to be an average at best QB because honestly that would be even getting underpaid for that kind of money. If the Broncos put $18 million a year towards him though all of a sudden I expect top-10 QB production from the guy and we better keep going to the playoffs year in and year out with him at the helm. Money speaks to expectations.

 

[Rockinkuwait]

Like I said with money comes expectations. They to me set the base with Hoyer of making the playoffs with 9 wins and getting bumped in the playoffs. They brought in Os to better that. Now one bad year or one year of matching that doesn't destroy the thought of him but it definitely puts more pressure on the other years in my opinion.

Not disagreeing, your last sentence really says it. It puts more pressure on him. They brought in Oz to be better than Hoyer at QB over the long term though. To do more than just beat up on bad teams and defenses. Yeah record is important, but if the QB position improves and the defense implodes, I don't blame Oz for what happens while he's on the bench.

I don't think anyone was pissed GB gave up that monster deal to Rodgers (something like top 5 contract ever handed out for 6 weeks or so of play) based on the team record.

Brock's win % was what? On pace for 11.5 wins and Peyton's first 3 years he was about 12.5 wins a year playing arguably one of the best 3 year stretches ever by a QB?

Just because Brady wins 1 less game following up Matt Cassel's season doesn't mean anyone thought NE made the wrong choice there.

Carson goes 4-11 in Oakland. They win the same number of games the next year with Terrelle Pryor. Not a bad move by Arizona though to get him.

 

[NWPATSFAN]

You avoided my question as it pertained to your comment about Obrien hedging his job on bringing Oswieler in. I'll answer it for you. Then in that case Kubiac should've been let go if PM didn't bring them a SB. Not 4-5 years like you're saying. See you can't have it both ways.
Good thing you're not a GM. There are already 15 QBs making more then Os based on annual average. Plus a handful just below 18 annually. Pretty big expecations I would say. Thus the reason I keep saying if Os is statistically ranked between 15-20 Houston did ok on this deal. Especially if it goes thru 2020.

I think you're letting your emotions over ride your expectations.

 

[cdumler7]

Not disagreeing, your last sentence really says it. It puts more pressure on him. They brought in Oz to be better than Hoyer at QB over the long term though. To do more than just beat up on bad teams and defenses. Yeah record is important, but if the QB position improves and the defense implodes, I don't blame Oz for what happens while he's on the bench.

I don't think anyone was pissed GB gave up that monster deal to Rodgers (something like top 5 contract ever handed out for 6 weeks or so of play) based on the team record.

Brock's win % was what? On pace for 11.5 wins and Peyton's first 3 years he was about 12.5 wins a year playing arguably one of the best 3 year stretches ever by a QB?

Just because Brady wins 1 less game following up Matt Cassel's season doesn't mean anyone thought NE made the wrong choice there.

Carson goes 4-11 in Oakland. They win the same number of games the next year with Terrelle Pryor. Not a bad move by Arizona though to get him.

I get that. And believe me I hate when people completely associate wins only with a QB. In 10 years from now it wouldn't surprise me to see people saying that Manning won Super Bowl 50 and honestly attributing a lot of the reason they won that game to him even though in the Super Bowl itself he was down right terrible and really the defense kept winning the entire season.

Also on the winning percentage you have to remember that Manning his first few years with the Broncos didn't have the elite defense of this past year. He was honestly a big reason why we were winning. He wasn't the sole reason by any means but 2013 is a great example where our offense was lights out and we had a terrible defense. Do I see Osweiler winning that many games in 2013 or coming close when a lot more pressure would be put on him to go out and be a big reason we won? No I would think maybe 8-8 that season.

The problem for Oz though is many will put that pressure that it isn't just about stats. That he has to go out and actually win games. Now I don't think that is fair but let's say the Texans miss the playoffs over the next years and Oz actually doesn't play terrible during that stretch. Some will be questioning whether the Texans should move on.

 

[cdumler7]

You avoided my question as it pertained to your comment about Obrien hedging his job on bringing Oswieler in. I'll answer it for you. Then in that case Kubiac should've been let go if PM didn't bring them a SB. Not 4-5 years like you're saying. See you can't have it both ways.
Good thing you're not a GM. There are already 15 QBs making more then Os based on annual average. Plus a handful just below 18 annually. Pretty big expecations I would say. Thus the reason I keep saying if Os is statistically between 15-20 Houston did ok on this deal. Especially if it goes thru 2020.

I think you're letting your emotions over ride your expectations.

Kubiak only got one year with Manning. So I'm not seeing the relation between if say we didn't win the Super Bowl in his one year with Manning and him getting fired. If we had kept Fox and he didn't win with Manning on the team in 4 straight years then yeah I would think the team would need to have that discussion. Elway had it one year earlier and thankfully he did as obviously Kubiak came in and won us a Super Bowl.

Now onto his salary.

Just because he is being paid as the 15th highest paid QB in the league doesn't mean to me that is the expectations. Look at Jay Cutler as a great example. He makes just a hair more than Osweiler at $18.1 million. Many people thought the Bears were going to replace him this year and about the last 3 years honestly. His stats have been about that area though of 10-20 in QB ability. So contract wise he has been living up to that place but because he is taking up such a huge chunk of the cap fans, analyst, and most everybody have higher expectations than just finishing middle of the pack when it comes to QB play. Matthew Stafford and Tony Romo fall into that same category. Heck Alex Smith has been the definition of an average QB most of his career and is getting paid as such but many people keep talking that he needs replaced because an average QB just rarely cuts it to actually go win the Super Bowl. IF you expectations are winning a Super Bowl then an average QB is not for you unless they are on a rookie contract and you can surround them with more talent because of a low cap number.

 

[Rockinkuwait]

Another part on Cutler is when he signed that deal. 3 years ago, my guess is that was top 10 money they were offering. And those big picks they had to give up for him (two firsts and a 3rd that ended up being Ayers, Mike Wallace, and Anthony Davis).

And for that they've been a slightly below average offense and their best QB play since getting him has come from his backup (McCown's year).

And I think the lack of growth is the big reason too. It wasn't year 1 in Chicago which wasn't good. It's that in 2014 he was still leading the league in picks thrown. Even with last year you can still make the case, 2008 (his last year in Denver) was his best, and Chicago has been good year for Cutler, bad year for cutler, back and forth with no consistency year to year.

And same with Stafford and Romo... It's that you see them early and want them to improve in record and play, and those two haven't as much.

I do agree with you that you need a good QB to get any consistency with wins and being a SB threat. When you get to the playoffs, there aren't a lot of Hoyers hanging around there. Then it is more often than not, the great QB who's defense is also playing well that's moving on.

 

[NWPATSFAN]

Kubiak only got one year with Manning. So I'm not seeing the relation between if say we didn't win the Super Bowl in his one year with Manning and him getting fired. If we had kept Fox and he didn't win with Manning on the team in 4 straight years then yeah I would think the team would need to have that discussion. Elway had it one year earlier and thankfully he did as obviously Kubiak came in and won us a Super Bowl.

Now onto his salary.

Just because he is being paid as the 15th highest paid QB in the league doesn't mean to me that is the expectations. Look at Jay Cutler as a great example. He makes just a hair more than Osweiler at $18.1 million. Many people thought the Bears were going to replace him this year and about the last 3 years honestly. His stats have been about that area though of 10-20 in QB ability. So contract wise he has been living up to that place but because he is taking up such a huge chunk of the cap fans, analyst, and most everybody have higher expectations than just finishing middle of the pack when it comes to QB play. Matthew Stafford and Tony Romo fall into that same category. Heck Alex Smith has been the definition of an average QB most of his career and is getting paid as such but many people keep talking that he needs replaced because an average QB just rarely cuts it to actually go win the Super Bowl. IF you expectations are winning a Super Bowl then an average QB is not for you unless they are on a rookie contract and you can surround them with more talent because of a low cap number.

You said Obrien could be fired if the Texans don't go to the POs past the WC round. One year with Oz why isn't the same with Kubiac?

Look we've gone as far as we can on contracts. Oz is getting paid like mid to top level QB. Like many you mentioned. Some earn it others don't. 18 million is the standard is all I'm saying. Geesh

 

[Rockinkuwait]

You said Obrien could be fired if the Texans don't go to the POs past the WC round. One year with Oz why isn't the same with Kubiac?

Look we've gone as far as we can on contracts. Oz is getting paid like mid to top level QB. Like many you mentioned. Some earn it others don't. 18 million is the standard is all I'm saying. Geesh

I think Obrien could, it would all depend on how things turn out. Not just the one year with Oz being the only thing, but more if he had 3 straight years with a great defense, finally got his QB he wanted, and still hadn't won a playoff game and his offense was having problems (what he was really brought in for). Kind of similar to the Fox situation, where they've got so many things going for them that they may rather change the coach rather than keep waiting and let the opportunity pass. Maybe not though, they seem to be pretty patient with their coaches in Houston.

 

[cdumler7]

You said Obrien could be fired if the Texans don't go to the POs past the WC round. One year with Oz why isn't the same with Kubiac?

Look we've gone as far as we can on contracts. Oz is getting paid like mid to top level QB. Like many you mentioned. Some earn it others don't. 18 million is the standard is all I'm saying. Geesh

Sorry I don't think I explained my point well. I meant just like any QB that takes a QB early in the draft is tied pretty close to that QB so is one that wants a team to pay big bucks to bring in a FA. I didn't mean for it to come out that if they miss the playoffs or don't do better than last year that O'Brien will be fired. His seat will get a bit warmer if they miss the playoffs of course but the Osweiler situation has bought him 2 more seasons in my opinion. One year of down play is understandable from a new QB. 2 straight years when you are paying him $36 million over that period though is not.