First Bracketology of February

[ericd7633]

West Regional(Anaheim, CA)

1. ARIZONA(PAC 12)
16. AMERICAN(PATRIOT)
- Viejas Arena(San Diego, Ca)
8. Xavier
9. Ohio State

4. Oklahoma State
13. MERCER(A-SUN)
- Spokane VMA(Spokane, WA)
5. Kentucky
12. UW-GREEN BAY(HORIZON)

3. MICHIGAN(B1G)
14. GEORGIA STATE(SUN BELT)
- Bradley Center(Milwaukee, WI)
6. Umass
11. Oregon/LSU

7. Texas
10. Florida State
- AT&T Center(San Antonio, TX)
2. SAN DIEGO STATE(MWC)
15. UTAH VALLEY(WAC)

East Regional(New York, NY)

1. SRYACUSE(ACC)
16. ROBERT MORRIS(NEC)
- First Niagara Center(Buffalo, NY)
8. New Mexico
9. Uconn

4. Wisconsin
13. NORTH DAKOTA STATE(SUMMIT)
- Spokane VMA(Spokane, WA)
5. ST. LOUIS(A-10)
12. SMU

3. Duke
14. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN(SOUTHLAND)
- AT&T Center(San Antonio, TX)
6. Memphis
11. Tennessee

7. Kansas State
10. Missouri
- First Niagara Center(Buffalo, NY)
2. Villanova
15. VERMONT(AM EAST)

Midwest Regional(Indianapolis, IN)

1. WICHITA STATE(MVC)
16. SOUTHERN(SWAC)/WEBER STATE(BIG SKY)
- Scottrade Center(St. Louis, MO)
8. Minnesota
9. Colorado

4. CREIGHTON(BIG EAST)
13. SOUTHERN MISS(C-USA)
- PNC Arena(Raleigh, NC)
5. Pittsburgh
12. TOLEDO(MAC)

3. Iowa State
14. BELMONT(OVC)
- Amway Center(Orlando, FL)
6.Virginia
11. California

7. GONZAGA(WCC)
10. Arizona State
- Bradley Center(Milwaukee, WI)
2. Michigan State
15. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL(MEAC)

South Regional(Memphis, TN)

1. KANSAS(BIG 12)
16. CHATTANOOGA(SOUTHERN)COASTAL CAROLINA(BIG SO.)
- Scottrade Center(St. Louis, MO)
8. Lousville
9. VCU

4. Oklahoma
13. DELAWARE(CAA)
- Viejas Arean(San Diego, CA)
5. Iowa
12. HARVARD(IVY)

3. CINCINNATI(AAC)
14. CANISIUS(MAAC)
- PNC Arena(Raleigh, NC)
6. UCLA
11. Richmond/Providence

7. George Washington
10. North Carolina
- Amway Center(Orlando, FL)
2. FLORIDA(SEC)
15. UC-SANTA BARBARA(BIG WEST)

IN the Bracket: Arizona State, LSU, UC-Santa Barbara(Big West), North Carolina Central(MEAC), Weber State(Big Sky), Coastal Carolina(Big South)

OUT of Bracket: Baylor, Stanford, UC-Irvine(Big West), Savannah State(MEAC), Northern Colorado(Big Sky), UNC-Asheville(Big South)

Top 10 on the "S" Curve: Arizona, Syracuse, Wichita State, Kansas, Florida, Michigan State, Villanova, San Diego State, Michigan, Duke.

Last 4 Byes: Arizona State, California, Tennessee, SMU

Last 4 IN: Oregon, LSU, Richmond, Providence

First 4 OUT: Baylor, Stanford, BYU, NC State

Next 4 OUT: Boise State, Saint Mary's, Saint Joe's, Wake Forest

Bids by Conference: AAC(5), A-10(5), ACC(6), Big 12(6), Big East(4), B1G(6), Mtn. West(2), Pac 12(6), SEC(4).

 

[ericd7633]

Will be updating potential changes throughout the day as to what's on the line.

Winner of Campbell/Coastal Carolina will be leading the Big South.

VCU/Richmond look to add a top 50 win to their resumes. A Richmond loss could potentially knock them out depending on what others do. A Richmond win will knock SMU down to the "Play-in game"

 

[rmilia1]

Those would be some bad ass 5/12 games IMO. COuld see any of them going to the 12.

 

[Smart]

I know there's been a push to have Kansas on the 1 line, but I don't know how to justify it. It's clear that their conference has no other very good teams (their next best team is a 4 in your projections). I'm not sure how you can justify them as a 1 when their best win is against the last #3 and they lost head to head against Nova, SDSU, and Florida. Those three teams have as many losses combined (4) as Kansas does, and should all be ahead of them. In my view, Kansas should be the last #2.

 

[ericd7633]

Those would be some bad ass 5/12 games IMO. COuld see any of them going to the 12.

Yes, I agree, let's hope those teams can get there. Ivy, Horizon, and MAC are all one bid leagues.

 

[Smart]

Also, I don't know if NDSU vs. Wisconsin was intentional, but it would be an interesting matchup. Saul Phillips used to coach under Bo, and Bo's son Will is one of his assistants.

That foursome couldn't actually happen because SLU and us already played. As you know,they try really hard to avoid round of 32 rematches.

 

[ericd7633]

I know there's been a push to have Kansas on the 1 line, but I don't know how to justify it. It's clear that their conference has no other very good teams (their next best team is a 4 in your projections). I'm not sure how you can justify them as a 1 when their best win is against the last #3 and they lost head to head against Nova, SDSU, and Florida. Those three teams have as many losses combined (4) as Kansas does, and should all be ahead of them. In my view, Kansas should be the last #2.

I have Iowa State as a 3(who they've swept). My justification for their seed is because they've played the #1 Non Conf. SOS, have played overwhelmingly the toughest overall schedule, are #1 in the RPI, and #2 in the BPI. Have more top 50 wins than any team in the country and are tied with Arizona for the most top 25 RPI wins. They just have an overall better resume despite losing head to head against those teams IMO.

 

[ericd7633]

Also, I don't know if NDSU vs. Wisconsin was intentional, but it would be an interesting matchup. Saul Phillips used to coach under Bo, and Bo's son Will is one of his assistants.

That foursome couldn't actually happen because SLU and us already played. As you know,they try really hard to avoid round of 32 rematches.

Didn't even realize it the NDSU vs. Wisconsin match up, but that would be fun. As far as the SLU vs. Wisconsin potential rematch in the 2nd round. I really couldn't put Wisconsin anywhere else, and wanted to keep them as their true #4 seed. I wanted to avoid putting 3 B1G teams in the same bracket. Also round of 32 rematches do happen, but you're right they do try to avoid it.

 

[ericd7633]

Guess I could switch UK and SLU, but UK was the worst 5 seed. That would put Oklahoma State at a disadvantage and Wisconsin at an advantage, but I'm sure the committee's done worse things. lol.

 

[rmilia1]

Kansas has played 16 of their 20 games vs top 100 opponents, 12 of their 20 vs top 50 opponents and 9 of their 20 vs top 25 opponents. Thats fucking nuts. The only team even remotely close to that is Wisconsin and even they really arent that close especially when it comes to top 25 and top 50 games, Im not sure there is a team in the country who would have less than 4 losses playing KU's schedule so far.

 

[ericd7633]

Kansas has played 16 of their 20 games vs top 100 opponents, 12 of their 20 vs top 50 opponents and 9 of their 20 vs top 25 opponents. Thats fucking nuts. The only team even remotely close to that is Wisconsin and even they really arent that close especially when it comes to top 25 and top 50 games, Im not sure there is a team in the country who would have less than 4 losses playing KU's schedule so far.

It really is crazy. Chalk up another top 50 game as the face Texas today.

 

[ericd7633]

Huge game for both Ohio State and Wisconsin. An Ohio State loss will put them in double digit seed territory.

 

[MI Nightmare]

I liked Providence until they lost to Marquette (14 points in the 1st half -- ugly). I think now they get in by taking down Villanova at the Dunkin Donuts Center, winning all games they're favored, and picking up another W vs Creighton or Xavier. Maybe 2-3 wins in the Big East Tourney as well (roughly 7-8 more wins) Anything less will be very debatable. Currently 15-6 and 4th in the BE.

I think only Nova and Creighton are near-locks. Xavier still has work to do.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Man. I usually hate the 8/9 game but ironically I love that draw so much more for the Gophers than the last one you had where they were a 6 seed.

 

[ericd7633]

Coastal Carolina hangs on to stay atop the Big South. Richmond loses out on a big opportunity for a road win at VCU.

This OSU/Wisconsin game coming right down to the wire.

 

[ericd7633]

I liked Providence until they lost to Marquette (14 points in the 1st half -- ugly). I think now they get in by taking down Villanova at the Dunkin Donuts Center, winning all games they're favored, and picking up another W vs Creighton or Xavier. Maybe 2-3 wins in the Big East Tourney as well (roughly 7-8 more wins) Anything less will be very debatable. Currently 15-6 and 4th in the BE.

I think only Nova and Creighton are near-locks. Xavier still has work to do.

Agree, Nova and Creighton are locks. If it ended today, Xavier would be a lock, but they can certainly play themselves out of it. Providence is squarely on the bubble, I would agree with what they have to do to get a bid.

 

[ericd7633]

Man. I usually hate the 8/9 game but ironically I love that draw so much more for the Gophers than the last one you had where they were a 6 seed.

I agree, always hated the 8/9 seed. I'd rather be a 10, 11, or 12. Better chance to advance further that way.

 

[ericd7633]

Huge win for Ohio State to stop the bleeding, meanwhile the Wisconsin free fall continues.

 

[ericd7633]

Xavier and Wake Forest both take brutal losses @home. The good thing, up until this point about Wake was that they had no bad losses, now they do. This is going to kill their RPI. Same with Xavier. Xavier now with some serious work to do.

 

[Clayton]

I have a hard time seeing Mizzou even getting into the NIT this year, tbh