Felix's 15 game streak with 7 + innings 2 or less earn runs

[Logicallylethal]

It has been a historical run for Felix during these 15 games. A quality start of 7 + innings with 2 or less runs is usually a guaranteed win with any decent offense behind you. But of those 15 starts Felix has only won 8 of those games, he has actually LOST 2 of those games (one of them 0-1) and gotten 5 no decisions in the other ones.

Can you imagine if Felix had won, let's say 13 or 14 of those 15 games rather than just 8. He'd be 18-1 and be in the running not only for Cy Young, but MVP as well.

 

[Podunkparte]

Bump.

It's now 16 and his season ERA is 1.95

Called his Cy Young award this year. It's officially his

 

[StanMarsh51]

Bump.

It's now 16 and his season ERA is 1.95

Called his Cy Young award this year. It's officially his

Even if he pitches poorly late in the season as he has each of the past three years?

 

[navamind]

Even if he pitches poorly late in the season as he has each of the past three years?

This. Felix is definitely the leading candidate right now, but he still has what, 8-9 starts left? A lot can happen. He could definitely hit a bump in the road and possibly fall behind guys like Kluber and Lester (though I don't see him really coming close to Felix/Kluber in terms of innings). Garrett Richards is having a pretty nice year himself.

Outside of a .258 BABIP though and 6.0 HR/FB rate, there isn't really anything that suggests Felix is due for regression. He has a high strikeout rate (9.68 K/9), very low walk rate (1.60 BB/9) and a very high ground ball rate (56.1%). His FIP is at 2.07, almost in line with his ERA. His xFIP is a bit higher, but even then, it's 2.38, 2nd in all of MLB behind only Kershaw (2.01).

We shall see.

 

[steveringo]

It has been a historical run for Felix during these 15 games. A quality start of 7 + innings with 2 or less runs is usually a guaranteed win with any decent offense behind you. But of those 15 starts Felix has only won 8 of those games, he has actually LOST 2 of those games (one of them 0-1) and gotten 5 no decisions in the other ones.

Can you imagine if Felix had won, let's say 13 or 14 of those 15 games rather than just 8. He'd be 18-1 and be in the running not only for Cy Young, but MVP as well.

A 'quality start' is 6 innings of 3 or less ER.

There is actually a stat called an "Ultra Quality Start" (UQS) - which is what you described - 7IP & 2 or less ER... And Hernandez is a King of that one...

Felix Hernandez is King of Ultra Quality Starts - GammonsDaily.com

 

[Podunkparte]

Felix shines in meaningful games. Yeah, he has 8-9 starts left while the M's are in playoff contention. He lives for those outings and I just can't imagine him being bad enough in enough of them to let someone else take over the lead in the Cy Young race.

 

[StanMarsh51]

Felix shines in meaningful games. Yeah, he has 8-9 starts left while the M's are in playoff contention. He lives for those outings and I just can't imagine him being bad enough in enough of them to let someone else take over the lead in the Cy Young race.

Exactly how many of these "meaningful" games has he played in? I mean, only once in his career (coming into this season) has the Mariners ever finished less than 10 games out from a playoff spot, and that was all the way back in 2007 when the M's were 6 games out of a playoff spot.

How about the idea that he could be overused the remainder of the season (he's on pace for about 250 innings) to help the M's get to the playoffs, and that could end up with him wearing out due to the heavy workout in the final month? We've seen it plenty of times before from pitchers with high workloads, so it's definitely a possibility here.

 

[Podunkparte]

Exactly how many of these "meaningful" games has he played in? I mean, only once in his career (coming into this season) has the Mariners ever finished less than 10 games out from a playoff spot, and that was all the way back in 2007 when the M's were 6 games out of a playoff spot.

How about the idea that he could be overused the remainder of the season (he's on pace for about 250 innings) to help the M's get to the playoffs, and that could end up with him wearing out due to the heavy workout in the final month? We've seen it plenty of times before from pitchers with high workloads, so it's definitely a possibility here.

I'm talking about games on stages. He excels against teams like the Yankees and Red Sox. Nationally televised games when he knows there's a big audience there and he steals the show.

Like the first game between Ichiro and Daisuke way back when. Nobody talked about Felix, who just about no hit the Sox that night. As an M's fan I've seen Felix pitch for years and I'm telling you he steps it up to another level when there's more on the line than just another game.

Yeah, anything could happen, but Felix isn't going to suddenly turn into a bad pitcher the last month of the season. His numbers could get a little worse, but with a 1.95 ERA it would be ridiculous to expect them not to. That wouldn't mean he's struggling though.

Homer glasses, sure, but I don't see anyone other than Felix winning the Cy Young. He would have to tank and a couple other guys would have to be even better to take the lead.

 

[StanMarsh51]

Yeah, anything could happen, but Felix isn't going to suddenly turn into a bad pitcher the last month of the season. His numbers could get a little worse, but with a 1.95 ERA it would be ridiculous to expect them not to. That wouldn't mean he's struggling though.

He stunk to end the season last year and the year before, so why act like it's virtually impossible this year.....

Last 6 starts in 2013: 0-5 record, 6.46 ERA
Last 6 starts in 2012: 0-4 record, 6.62 ERA

Just doing some quick math, if he pitches 2 more games averaging his current 7 innings per start with a 1.95 ERA, then ends the season with 6 starts where he averages 6 innings and a 6.50 ERA (like the last 2 years), he would end the season with an ERA at 2.66.

So just by ending the season in similar fashion to the way he did in the past 2 seasons, his ERA takes a huge hit from 1.95 to 2.66....and that could very well hurt him in the Cy race if Kluber maintains his sub 2.50 ERA.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

He stunk to end the season last year and the year before, so why act like it's virtually impossible this year.....

Last 6 starts in 2013: 0-5 record, 6.46 ERA
Last 6 starts in 2012: 0-4 record, 6.62 ERA

Just doing some quick math, if he pitches 2 more games averaging his current 7 innings per start with a 1.95 ERA, then ends the season with 6 starts where he averages 6 innings and a 6.50 ERA (like the last 2 years), he would end the season with an ERA at 2.66.

So just by ending the season in similar fashion to the way he did in the past 2 seasons, his ERA takes a huge hit from 1.95 to 2.66....and that could very well hurt him in the Cy race if Kluber maintains his sub 2.50 ERA.

You are dropping a far bigger IF in there regarding Kluber than if King Felix falters down the stretch.

He's a run away winner right now and would have to absolutely collapse to give anyone a shot.

 

[Darkstone42]

You are dropping a far bigger IF in there regarding Kluber than if King Felix falters down the stretch.

He's a run away winner right now and would have to absolutely collapse to give anyone a shot.

That isn't all that big an "if" with Kluber. He is actually that good. Four plus pitches (his breaking ball is ++), and he can control all of them.

Felix, though, is actually a better pitcher this year than ever before. He was always an elite K/BB guy, but he was only average on batted balls. That's good enough to be one of the best in the game, but it does allow for some issues to arise, rough spells. This year, he's remained an elite K/BB guy, but he's also made himself elite on balls in play. There is only one other pitcher in baseball who does that, and that's Kershaw.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

That isn't all that big an "if" with Kluber. He is actually that good. Four plus pitches (his breaking ball is ++), and he can control all of them.

Felix, though, is actually a better pitcher this year than ever before. He was always an elite K/BB guy, but he was only average on batted balls. That's good enough to be one of the best in the game, but it does allow for some issues to arise, rough spells. This year, he's remained an elite K/BB guy, but he's also made himself elite on balls in play. There is only one other pitcher in baseball who does that, and that's Kershaw.

Kluber isn't 2.46 good. He is the same age as Felix is now and just now putting it together.

Again, the far bigger IF is a guy like Kluber maintain his pace to even be mentioned. Not a guy like King Felix keeping the huge lead he currently has.

 

[Darkstone42]

Kluber isn't 2.46 good. He is the same age as Felix is now and just now putting it together.

Again, the far bigger IF is a guy like Kluber maintain his pace to even be mentioned. Not a guy like King Felix keeping the huge lead he currently has.

Kluber's age isn't entirely relevant. He made a couple mechanical adjustments over the past couple years, achieving a repeatable delivery. That's why his strikeouts and ground balls are up, and his walks are down. This was especially important with respect to his curveball, which is now among the best benders in the Majors.

 

[navamind]

Kluber isn't 2.46 good. He is the same age as Felix is now and just now putting it together.

Again, the far bigger IF is a guy like Kluber maintain his pace to even be mentioned. Not a guy like King Felix keeping the huge lead he currently has.

Lol. How so? His stuff is quite good (especially his curve ball, it's just nasty) and his peripherals (K/9, BB/9, GB%, etc.) are also very, very good. His FIP is right in line with his ERA (2.43, 4th best in majors) and his xFIP isn't far off (2.69, 6th best).

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Lol. How so? His stuff is quite good (especially his curve ball, it's just nasty) and his peripherals (K/9, BB/9, GB%, etc.) are also very, very good. His FIP is right in line with his ERA (2.43, 4th best in majors) and his xFIP isn't far off (2.69, 6th best).

Did you not bother reading everything?

Felix as a runaway CY is being refuted because of past numbers. When in reality not only is Felix better this year but he's also better for his career.

So it is far easier to see Kluber faltering than King Felix.

Since it really isn't being grasped. Not only does Felix have to collapse to a 2.6ish era but a guy like Kluber also has to stay rolling.

The if's are far and away bigger in that scenario.

 

[Podunkparte]

If you had to bet $1000 on who would be the better pitcher from now til the end of the season, Felix or Kluber, nobody would pick Kluber.

 

[SeattleCoug]

He stunk to end the season last year and the year before, so why act like it's virtually impossible this year.....

Last 6 starts in 2013: 0-5 record, 6.46 ERA
Last 6 starts in 2012: 0-4 record, 6.62 ERA

Last year he was pitching on a hurt back much of the second half which help contributed to his poor numbers, eventually he was shut down most of September. In 2012 he was never the same after his perfect game. This offseason he changed his diet and workout routine and came into spring training in better shape. I think that contributing with relying on his change up more then his fastball has made him more effective this year.

Maybe I have have homer view but his numbers are unreal. The most earned runs he has allowed in start this year is 4 and he is only done that once in 25 starts. He's allowed 2 ER or less in 22 of 25 starts. There are definately a lot of quality starters in the AL like Kluber, Sale, Price, etc. but it seems like barring him getting teed off on its Felix's to lose.

 

[gandydancer]

Over

Only 5 IP today. Only 2ER though.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Stupid coaching. Let the guy go back out there instead of pitching shitty ass Maurer

 

[gandydancer]

I would just say precautionary after being hit by by ball. Sure he could of went 7 no problem.