Evaluating this train wreck

[JohnU]

I squirreled together some thoughts on how we got to this point in Reds history and where we are likely to be in a year, two years ... or in the next phase of the Ice Age.

Without producing a work of excessive prose, I would like to get some other thoughts on it. A lot of this is re-hash, I suppose.

Four general areas on the field:

Starting pitching
Relief pitching
Defense
Hitting

A fifth on-field area, managing-coaching, could be part of that.

I suppose the not-on-the-field stuff, like contracts, scouting, player development are on the table too but that's harder to quantify until it's actually on the field. Baseball finances, of course, are a separate topic.

All in all, it appears the team came out of spring training with a paper-thin strategy that was based on realities that were almost certain to fail.

What worries me, if being worried about a baseball team is the biggest deal of my day, is quite frankly: The same strategy appears to be in place for 2016. About all that the Reds F.O. can say is that they are letting young pitchers get their experience at the top level. That will probably sell season tickets.

As "chico ruiz" is wont to point out, there's not much of a discernible plan in place beyond that. Not clear on what that plan ought to be and whether we'd notice it anyhow, but the problems this team faces appear to be less about talent (or lack thereof) than the way it's been managed.

The bullpen, specifically, is made up of a half-dozen guys who aren't better, worse, different or unique. They are all just ordinary pitchers who could pitch for anybody and achieve the same results. I personally don't buy into "roles" for relievers but the relievers evidently do. What I see is, let's just warm somebody up and bring him in to see if he can get the side out.

Why did the Reds come into the season knowing they'd lose 2 of their 3 starters by July, and essentially believe that Homer Bailey, hurt when camp started, would suddenly become a staff ace?

When did the front office realize that the best fifth starter they had wasn't an immature Iglesias, but was instead -- Jason fucking Marquis?

Why does the best pitcher in recent team history get to throw 3 innings a week?

Why did the Reds think that 550 strikeouts in the outfield was going to generate 100 long hits, 100 stolen bases and profound excitement?

Or that the bench would include still another 15 left fielders who combine for .228 and 7 HR?

I keep looking at the on-field presence and realize that if this team wins 75 games next year, it will mostly be by luck.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I don't think many teams come out of the "Winter Meetings" wanting to send the message to fans that their team is going to suck during the upcoming season, but it was evident early on that we might not want to base our 2015 expectations on the Reds' marketing propaganda. This team was bad last year, this year, and will be a work in progress moving forward.

Starting pitching; The group the Reds are currently running out to the mound every fifth day probably only has two keepers in Iglesias and Desclafani. Sampson is most likely destined for the bullpen either here or elsewhere. Lorenzen is a bit of a project that they seem committed to, but the club is gambling regularly with the notion that "College Closers" can become MLB SP's. Cingrani, Nick Howard, and Lorenzen are all trying to break out of that mold with the first two names already being a disappointment. Homer remains a question mark moving forward even though he's under contract through 2020. Stephenson, Travieso, Garrett and Cody Reed are the front runners to form the future rotation. Lamb, Cingrani, Holmberg, and fill in the blank types are most likely be trade pieces to acquire position player depth. At this point they're holding places in the pitching depth chart that more talented prospects should be moving into. I could see this being a playoff caliber rotation by 2019 with some of the power arms rounding out a quality bullpen. Of course I may be dillusional, after all I've already renewed my season tickets.

Hitting; That's where the rubber meets the road and this team appears to be riding on the rims. By 2019 only Votto, Suarez, Barnhart, and prospects currently in the pipeline remain under team control. So offensively this club has a lot of catching up to do to field a viable offense before the stock pile of young pitching expires. Beyond the current 25 man roster there's very little offensive depth in the farm system. International FA's like Yorman Rodriguez, Juan Duran, Felix Perez and 1st and 2nd round picks like Ryan LaMarre, Phil Ervin, Billy Hamilton all have various MLB tools, but the one common denominator among all of them and the outfielders on the current 25 man roster for that matter is they don't possess the hit tool. Other than Winker you don't hear another name being bantered about in the farm system. Maybe SS Alex Blandino who the Reds drafted with the Choo compensation pick, but the cupboards are pretty bare beyond that.

Jocketty gets most of the blame, but the personnel that head up the scouting department predate his arrival by 3-5 years. Chris Buckley and Terry Reynolds are two names I'd be holding accountable. Jocketty may retire after next year, but if the other two yahoo's remain I don't see things getting better.

 

[JohnU]

I just saw a bunch of "decisions" about limiting the innings of some starters. If it wasn't a serious attempt to convince us they have an idea, it would be a Keystone Kops joke.

 

[JohnU]

Brennan Boesch -- 9 hits in 74 at-bats. That's not even a joke.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Whether it's Boesch, Adam Duvall, or any other outfielder we've seen in recent years, none of them can hit. How an organization can acquire a entire generation of outfielders that can't hit for average demonstrates a flaw in the scouting department. Reds' outfielders have combined for a .222 BA for the 2015 season.

 

[JohnU]

I think the Reds bought into the notion that Bruce would somehow get it together.
And they expected Hamilton to become the next Lou Brock.
Whatever has been going on in left field since Dunn was traded is an ongoing Christmas party joke. They even traded the guy they traded for to fix the problem!

 

[Redsfan1507]

It's pretty simple. When Jocketty was hired, the plan was to challenge by 2011 and get done hardware by 2015, when the pitchers would leave for expensive contracts, and fans would live in the afterglow with Votto and Bruce and Phillips while replacement farmhands like Frazier Hamilton, Stephenson, and a promise to dissapoint later took them they the next rebuild. They miscalculated. Votto's emotional and physical risk, Baileys arm, Bruce's abandoned focus, Bakers inability to find a leadoff hitter or a 105 mph LHSP in a room the size of the dugout. He'll, they broke ST for opening day once 1 player short of 25. The Reds have been distracted, dumbfounded, disrupted and disguised, and fans are naturally, disgusted.

They had no backup plan after the Baker teams couldn't manage a single post season series win, and went 0 for the "series" in 2 of three post season appearences, taking a year off because it wasn't a contract year in between. Jocketty's fallback plan made the Titanic look like a fail safe.

Barry Larkin isn't the answer folks. He's a short term ticket ploy.

The SP all leaving isn't beating this team. They couldnt flucking score with 7 of 8 planned position players in the lineup. The lone absentee- albeit the "planned" cleanup hitter- Mesoraco- was also planned to platoon at catcher half of every week without a part time 2nd position. Geez, a hip injury that ALMOST resulted in him getting OF practice was ditched in favor if surgery that is hoped will have him back as a 390 AB critical lineup cog next year.

Castellini is a nice guy that has spent more money than any Reds owner. His hires have emptied his wallet, fucked his daughter and eaten his dog.

Nice time to start over. Is fire the bandits, Blindmen and buffoons though.

 

[eburg5000]

Adam Duvall will fit in nicely with this team. He Has 4 hits 3 homeruns and a double, and somewhere around 15 strikeouts. And we know that the Reds like players who strikeout a lot.

Just more of the train wreck

 

[JohnU]

I watched Finnegan pitch last night. Underwhelming stuff but a lefthanded version of Leake or maybe Homer Bailey.

Going forward, I see no ace in this deck. Of course, the ace is the closer, but we'll lose him for more "prospects" in another 9 months.

The pitching seems to be a little more lefthanded now than in the Days of Dusty, which really wasn't all his fault.

Tony Cingrani has become a Loogy, in my opinion. Maybe that's not a bad thing. Personally, I'd put Parra back in the rotation for the rest of the year and shut down Lorenzen and Iglesias. Neither of them is going to learn anything else other than how to back up third base.

Rays of hope: Four positions on this team -- C, 1B, SS and 3B are well-manned.
Moving Suarez to LF seems do-able unless that's where they hope to put Mesoraco, which means you deal Suarez and hope Cozart isn't a freak show.

Honestly, I'd peddle Hamilton to the American League for some team like the Tigers who can club the fuck out of the ball and have turtles for baserunners.

And I would sign Brayan Pena to a lifetime deal.

 

[eburg5000]

Neither of them is going to learn anything else other than how to back up third base.

HAHA liked that

 

[JohnU]

IF and only IF a Reds starter could make it past 5 innings with anything resembling a chance to win the game, without having thrown 110 pitches, turning the lineup over twice ... we still get to see the bullpen.
Whatever it's worth, any bullpen that automatically gives up more runs than the team has scored is ... what?
I don't blame Price for everything but he's the guy who is managing this slop wagon.

I guess the point is, do we really think this is going to change over the winter? That these guys are going to suddenly come into spring camp and figure it out?
Hell, we've spent 3 years getting Hamilton to lay down a bunt and he still can't.
We think these pitchers are going to all of a sudden be winners?

 

[Redsfan1507]

Hell, we've spent 3 years getting Hamilton to lay down a bunt and he still can't.

Cattle breeders don't pack up and starve after a failed attempt. They try again...then get a block and tackle...and artificial means when all else fails...but the deed gets done because they aren't eating meat any other way. When Billy fails to bunt, he doesn't get another signal for 2 weeks. Bruce hasn't hit in 2 seasons but he still plays. Obviously Price must be vegan.

A BAD pitcher gets outs 65% of the time, except when pitching to our Reds, and that % goes up considerably then. This team has to hit more or they need to take up soccer. The Reds piss poor planning caused the current pitching debacle, but I have little doubt Chapman (and Bailey) could make the rotation a lot more viable next year, if anyone had testosterone to do so. Not happening. They let Dusty make that call, and they are going to strangle on it.

Need to fire people, and fire up the ones left. This team only has a season or two until Frazier and Chapman are gone, and Phillips is old. The Reds real best chance at winning is still in high school. I'd be finding them now.

Sauarez and Cozart isn't a problem- you need 2 SS...the problem is when the entire OF hits like SS.

Mesoraco should get 75 games in LF. I'd bet he won't get 5. He'll still have fewer HR than Suarez has errors if Suarez gets 140 games at SS though.

 

[JohnU]

I have heard for years that managers affect about 5 games a year. Where I heard that is from the same dozen dimwits who heard it from somebody and keep repeating it as if it were the truth. There is zero statistical evidence to attach '5' to a manager's value.
What does happen is teams that go -- in only 2 years -- from 90 wins to 98 losses usually have bad managers.
The rumor mill has it that Price and (of course) Walt will be retained this winter but a couple of coaches will be the scapegoats. Run up the Steve Smith flag, please. (Price, btw, was on board with Smith's coaching until he was told to fire the guy.)
Accepting the reality that the team the Reds have is the one that came with the offer, does anybody actually think this team should spend the last 2 weeks of the season winning ZERO games?
Even the 1962 Mets had some dignity.
Blame the lack of competitive spirit on the people in the dugout. And before we start with the 'highly paid' claim, I played and coached baseball and softball -- and a bad attitude is a bad attitude. Players are not born with a bad attitude but they get one when it's allowed to develop.
If the dugout staff has no "chemistry" and is inclined to blame that on a lack of leadership ... guess what? Players aren't being paid to be clubhouse leaders. Coaches and managers, however, ARE paid to do that.

 

[Redsfan1507]

We agree there, John.

Most players are under 30- they're normal young adults, except they get paid like 55 year old CEO's of big businesses. They've been athletes their entire lives, and often need someone to regimen basic life for them. Money doesn't solve everything, but it makes losing a lot easier, complicating "motivation" considerably.. Some players are just as hungry rich, but most aren't unless in a contract year.

One might be naiive enough to believe managers have control of the team, but if the star making $18M is on the pine due to attitude or hustle, he won't be long or they get a new manager. Jockey's don't win races- horses do, but they won't run without the jockey's whip usually. A great horse also won't win if he refuses to allow a jockey on his back either.

Good managers develop respect and have enough backing of the brass to make a problem child the problem, instead of the manager. Great managers (few) work as hard as they ask players to and don't have as many problem children. If they are all problems, Skip is toast.

Good managers manage...the coaches and the players... in the clubhouse, on the plane, in the hotel, in practice and in game. They have to be equally good at kissing and kicking ass, and he better be CONSISTENTLY fundamentally sound and get same, or he's just mis-managing a future clusterfuck, unless he has overwhelming talent, and even that doesn't last long.

I'd argue that good managers contribute to wins and bad ones to losses more than just a handful of games. Making the right or wrong call at a critical point, may directly effect only that many, but it's always dependent on those players to execute isn't it ? Preparation has a lot to do with execution......and is partially the manager's job, and may be the one aspect least noticed, except in results on the field.

Sadly, this team just isn't prepared to go to the plate with sound philosophy, to bunt, or run the bases, generally..going back through several managers. They leave too much up to the individual players, the occasional homer and opposing mistakes, usually. It isn't nearly enough. Talent level is WAY too low to make up for much of those shortcomings.

I think a managers biggest impact is on the baseball IQ and maintaining the best relative physical health of a team. Talent is what it is, and smarter teams DO win more, but rarely against superior talent. Injuries happen, but weighing benefits of playing through them or being overworked to aggrivate them is often a critical decision, as is letting a malingerer or bad attitude ruin others.

Adam Dunn and KGJ used to tell Pete Mackanin to go fuck himself. Edwin Encarnacion and Alex Gonzalez would say similar in Spanish. Dusty had enough of a name to get them moved, but not enough ability to make anyone better or smarter. It's tougher on a legit loser ( a weak team-not just undererformers)- not enough talent to accomplish what you need, and players just stop trying or listening. That's where Price is now, IMO.

Chemistry is ALWAYS a product of perceived success or failure, not the other way around. Happy losers are getting the wrong signals, if winning is the goal.

IMO, this team is in better shape than it was in 2006, only because of Votto, Chapman and Frazier, and Mesoraco if he can play 130 + games, and they have some good young SP arms...but they have a long way to go (again) to be a winner. By that time, all those guys won't be on the team. It's a shame.

 

[JohnU]

Frazier and Votto have essentially opted out of the last 4 games, and I really don't blame them. Playing the Parrots is where all the problems are with throwing at hitters. I can safely say that the Parrots won't have a problem plunking people. I don't think these Reds rookie pitchers could hit somebody if they tried, Unless it was an 0-2 count with 2 out and nobody on.
Philips may also develop a "lat muscle" issue in the 4th inning today.
Bruce will just go 0-for-4.

 

[eburg5000]

I don't think Pittsburgh will want to start a beanball battle this weekend. they have much more to lose than the Reds if someone gets hurt. or suspended.

 

[JohnU]

They can use a callup pitcher if they need to plunk somebody.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I think I agree with Eburg on that one. They could have a call up hit a batter. But the Reds' pitcher isn't going to retaliate by hitting a call up.

 

[JohnU]

I was half joking about being hit. There would be zero reason for it. It's that every time the Parrots play the Reds, Cutch gets hit and Phillips gets hit and then Walker gets hit and the walrus in the Parrots dugout claims he's the victim.

 

[JohnU]

Houston ended the 2013 season with 15 straight losses. I did not think I would ever see that again.