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ESPN reveals new SP+ rankings after Week 2
ESPN reveals new SP+ rankings after Week 2
The rise of advanced metrics in college football have given fans and media members a new way to look at what's going on on the field.
And one of the biggest and most-used of those metrics is ESPN's SP+ (formerly S&P+, from FootballOutsiders). It's a look at how efficient a team is on both sides of the ball and in different situations, measuring play-by-play success and explosiveness, then straining those numbers through a filter to account for competition and leaving out meaningless numbers accumulated late in blowouts. The point is for the formula to look forward, not back; ESPN's Bill Connelly has said he doesn't want SP+ to serve as a look at the "most deserving" teams or those with the best résumés.
"SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing," Connelly wrote. "That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."
At this point in the season, there aren't many game-acquired numbers to go by. So Connelly's SP+ does what most similar formulas do — like KenPom for basketball — it blends what has happened on the field with the formula's preseason predictions. The result is that there are some teams in the top 25 who may not deserve to be there purely off on-field results. But each week, the formula will wean off those preseason numbers until (part of the way through the season), the on-field plays are all that will factor in.
The SP+ ratings are based on how many points better a team is than the average team. So if a team has a "+30" rating, that means it is 30 points better than the average team. Scroll up to see how SP+ ranks the top 25 teams heading into Week 3.
ESPN reveals new SP+ rankings after Week 2
ESPN reveals new SP+ rankings after Week 2
The rise of advanced metrics in college football have given fans and media members a new way to look at what's going on on the field.
And one of the biggest and most-used of those metrics is ESPN's SP+ (formerly S&P+, from FootballOutsiders). It's a look at how efficient a team is on both sides of the ball and in different situations, measuring play-by-play success and explosiveness, then straining those numbers through a filter to account for competition and leaving out meaningless numbers accumulated late in blowouts. The point is for the formula to look forward, not back; ESPN's Bill Connelly has said he doesn't want SP+ to serve as a look at the "most deserving" teams or those with the best résumés.
"SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing," Connelly wrote. "That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."
At this point in the season, there aren't many game-acquired numbers to go by. So Connelly's SP+ does what most similar formulas do — like KenPom for basketball — it blends what has happened on the field with the formula's preseason predictions. The result is that there are some teams in the top 25 who may not deserve to be there purely off on-field results. But each week, the formula will wean off those preseason numbers until (part of the way through the season), the on-field plays are all that will factor in.
The SP+ ratings are based on how many points better a team is than the average team. So if a team has a "+30" rating, that means it is 30 points better than the average team. Scroll up to see how SP+ ranks the top 25 teams heading into Week 3.
