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An early look at the 2018 college football coaching carousel
By Adam Rittenberg
The coaching cycle this season had enough drama for a movie, and that's just with Tennessee alone. Who wouldn't want to see the "Rocky Top Horror Picture Show," narrated by Jon Gruden?
The 2018 cycle, meanwhile, might be much less eventful than its predecessor. There will be coaching changes in November and December. There always are. There will be some that we don't expect -- names that do not appear on this way-too-early list.
But this should be a relatively quiet cycle in the Power 5, thanks to all of the volatility of the past two months, which continued Tuesday night with Arizona's stunning dismissal of Rich Rodriguez.
Only four SEC coaches -- Alabama's Nick Saban, Auburn's Gus Malzahn, Kentucky's Mark Stoops and Vanderbilt's Derek Mason -- have been in their jobs longer than two seasons. There aren't many obvious hot seats in the ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12.
After studying the recent changes and the contracts, it wasn't easy to find 10 coaches who will be feeling the heat this fall, especially at big-name programs. Here's an extremely early look at the coaching hot seat for 2018.
1. David Beaty, Kansas (3-33, three seasons)
Beaty survived his third double-digit-loss season and second winless Big 12 season because Kansas simply can't afford a change while continuing overdue facilities upgrades to better compete in the Power 5. But Beaty must deliver tangible results in Year 4, especially in a Big 12 without an obvious alpha dog.
This job presents unique challenges, but most of the roster is Beaty's. It's time to deliver wins.
2. Kliff Kingsbury, Texas Tech (30-33, five seasons)
A win at Texas in the regular-season finale validated some of the improvement Texas Tech made this season and got the Red Raiders to a bowl game. Texas Tech was better, especially on defense, where coordinator David Gibbs did a nice job.
Kingsbury, under contract through 2020, now must follow it up with an even better season in 2018 or the calls for change will be back. His 16-29 record in Big 12 play is the biggest blemish during his tenure.
3. Kalani Sitake, BYU (13-13, two seasons)
This program doesn't lose often (only four losing seasons since 1973) and rarely looks as inept as it did this fall, when it finished 4-9. The Cougars ranked 123rd nationally in scoring offense and were outscored 321-222.
Sitake will be in big trouble if the team doesn't win more or score more in 2018. It wouldn't be a huge financial hit to fire Sitake, and BYU could make another run at Navy's Ken Niumatalolo.
4. Paul Johnson, Georgia Tech (75-54, 10 seasons)
Johnson has done many great things at Georgia Tech, including two seasons of 10 or more wins. But he has recorded losing records in two of the past three years, and he hasn't had a winning ACC record since 2014, when Georgia Tech won the Coastal Division and the Orange Bowl.
It might just be time for a change if the team doesn't take a step forward in 2018, although Georgia Tech isn't flush with money to pay people not to work.
5. Ed Orgeron, LSU (9-4, one season)
Remember, he wasn't LSU's first choice, which shapes how the university and its constituents will view his tenure. Orgeron scored an important win over Auburn and finished SEC play well, but if he doesn't start contending soon for the SEC West, folks will get restless.
After a breakdown in communication with Matt Canada, a proven offensive coordinator, Orgeron must get that side of the ball right. LSU squanders too much talent every season.
6. Lovie Smith, Illinois (5-19, two seasons)
This is a unique situation that wouldn't necessarily result in Smith being fired. He and Illinois are tied together by a contract that would cost either side a hefty sum to walk away. But if the on-field product doesn't improve after a winless, largely noncompetitive Big Ten season, Smith and Illinois could mutually agree to cut ties.
Illinois is making facilities upgrades and can't afford to fall too far behind in what should soon be a better division. Smith said he's committed for the long haul, but the transition back to college has been tough.
7. Derek Mason, Vanderbilt (18-31, four seasons)
Vanderbilt really wants this to work and awarded Mason a contract extension after 2016. He's a high-character coach who fits the program well. But the results need to improve after the Commodores took a step back this season, finishing 1-7 in the SEC.
Mason has won only 6 of 32 SEC games so far, and, despite his recent mastery of Tennessee, he must show more progress against beatable East Division foes. Bowl eligibility this season secures Mason for 2019. Anything less and Vanderbilt has a decision to make.
8. D.J. Durkin, Maryland (10-15, two seasons)
This name might surprise some, as Durkin has a strong résumé and remains well-regarded in coaching circles. But several industry sources mentioned him as a coach who must at least show a positive trend in Year 3.
Quarterback injuries doomed Maryland this season after a promising start with a win over Texas, and the Terrapins are recruiting well. But the Big Ten East is only getting better, Durkin is 5-13 in league games and Maryland could soon be looking for a new athletic director.
Durkin should be fine but wants to leave no doubt.
9. Larry Fedora, North Carolina (43-34, six seasons)
Fedora's track record -- only one losing regular season as a head coach -- and his contract, which runs through 2022, strongly suggest he will be fine. He simply needs to avoid a repeat of this past season, when injuries ravaged the roster and ugly losses piled up.
North Carolina is building a new indoor practice facility, and Fedora guided the team to the ACC title game in 2015. Marginal improvement will secure his future in Chapel Hill.
10. Clay Helton, USC (27-10, two seasons as permanent coach plus time as interim)
It seems absurd to include a coach who just led USC to its first Pac-12 championship in nearly a decade. But USC expected a playoff spot this season, and double-digit losses to Notre Dame and Ohio State create a bit of heat for Helton, who wasn't hired by athletic director Lynn Swann. Industry sources say Swann could try to make a splash hire.
With Chip Kelly at UCLA, Helton needs to keep winning in Year 3.
By Adam Rittenberg
The coaching cycle this season had enough drama for a movie, and that's just with Tennessee alone. Who wouldn't want to see the "Rocky Top Horror Picture Show," narrated by Jon Gruden?
The 2018 cycle, meanwhile, might be much less eventful than its predecessor. There will be coaching changes in November and December. There always are. There will be some that we don't expect -- names that do not appear on this way-too-early list.
But this should be a relatively quiet cycle in the Power 5, thanks to all of the volatility of the past two months, which continued Tuesday night with Arizona's stunning dismissal of Rich Rodriguez.
Only four SEC coaches -- Alabama's Nick Saban, Auburn's Gus Malzahn, Kentucky's Mark Stoops and Vanderbilt's Derek Mason -- have been in their jobs longer than two seasons. There aren't many obvious hot seats in the ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12.
After studying the recent changes and the contracts, it wasn't easy to find 10 coaches who will be feeling the heat this fall, especially at big-name programs. Here's an extremely early look at the coaching hot seat for 2018.
1. David Beaty, Kansas (3-33, three seasons)
Beaty survived his third double-digit-loss season and second winless Big 12 season because Kansas simply can't afford a change while continuing overdue facilities upgrades to better compete in the Power 5. But Beaty must deliver tangible results in Year 4, especially in a Big 12 without an obvious alpha dog.
This job presents unique challenges, but most of the roster is Beaty's. It's time to deliver wins.
2. Kliff Kingsbury, Texas Tech (30-33, five seasons)
A win at Texas in the regular-season finale validated some of the improvement Texas Tech made this season and got the Red Raiders to a bowl game. Texas Tech was better, especially on defense, where coordinator David Gibbs did a nice job.
Kingsbury, under contract through 2020, now must follow it up with an even better season in 2018 or the calls for change will be back. His 16-29 record in Big 12 play is the biggest blemish during his tenure.
3. Kalani Sitake, BYU (13-13, two seasons)
This program doesn't lose often (only four losing seasons since 1973) and rarely looks as inept as it did this fall, when it finished 4-9. The Cougars ranked 123rd nationally in scoring offense and were outscored 321-222.
Sitake will be in big trouble if the team doesn't win more or score more in 2018. It wouldn't be a huge financial hit to fire Sitake, and BYU could make another run at Navy's Ken Niumatalolo.
4. Paul Johnson, Georgia Tech (75-54, 10 seasons)
Johnson has done many great things at Georgia Tech, including two seasons of 10 or more wins. But he has recorded losing records in two of the past three years, and he hasn't had a winning ACC record since 2014, when Georgia Tech won the Coastal Division and the Orange Bowl.
It might just be time for a change if the team doesn't take a step forward in 2018, although Georgia Tech isn't flush with money to pay people not to work.
5. Ed Orgeron, LSU (9-4, one season)
Remember, he wasn't LSU's first choice, which shapes how the university and its constituents will view his tenure. Orgeron scored an important win over Auburn and finished SEC play well, but if he doesn't start contending soon for the SEC West, folks will get restless.
After a breakdown in communication with Matt Canada, a proven offensive coordinator, Orgeron must get that side of the ball right. LSU squanders too much talent every season.
6. Lovie Smith, Illinois (5-19, two seasons)
This is a unique situation that wouldn't necessarily result in Smith being fired. He and Illinois are tied together by a contract that would cost either side a hefty sum to walk away. But if the on-field product doesn't improve after a winless, largely noncompetitive Big Ten season, Smith and Illinois could mutually agree to cut ties.
Illinois is making facilities upgrades and can't afford to fall too far behind in what should soon be a better division. Smith said he's committed for the long haul, but the transition back to college has been tough.
7. Derek Mason, Vanderbilt (18-31, four seasons)
Vanderbilt really wants this to work and awarded Mason a contract extension after 2016. He's a high-character coach who fits the program well. But the results need to improve after the Commodores took a step back this season, finishing 1-7 in the SEC.
Mason has won only 6 of 32 SEC games so far, and, despite his recent mastery of Tennessee, he must show more progress against beatable East Division foes. Bowl eligibility this season secures Mason for 2019. Anything less and Vanderbilt has a decision to make.
8. D.J. Durkin, Maryland (10-15, two seasons)
This name might surprise some, as Durkin has a strong résumé and remains well-regarded in coaching circles. But several industry sources mentioned him as a coach who must at least show a positive trend in Year 3.
Quarterback injuries doomed Maryland this season after a promising start with a win over Texas, and the Terrapins are recruiting well. But the Big Ten East is only getting better, Durkin is 5-13 in league games and Maryland could soon be looking for a new athletic director.
Durkin should be fine but wants to leave no doubt.
9. Larry Fedora, North Carolina (43-34, six seasons)
Fedora's track record -- only one losing regular season as a head coach -- and his contract, which runs through 2022, strongly suggest he will be fine. He simply needs to avoid a repeat of this past season, when injuries ravaged the roster and ugly losses piled up.
North Carolina is building a new indoor practice facility, and Fedora guided the team to the ACC title game in 2015. Marginal improvement will secure his future in Chapel Hill.
10. Clay Helton, USC (27-10, two seasons as permanent coach plus time as interim)
It seems absurd to include a coach who just led USC to its first Pac-12 championship in nearly a decade. But USC expected a playoff spot this season, and double-digit losses to Notre Dame and Ohio State create a bit of heat for Helton, who wasn't hired by athletic director Lynn Swann. Industry sources say Swann could try to make a splash hire.
With Chip Kelly at UCLA, Helton needs to keep winning in Year 3.
