Dville's 4th annual CFB preview thread

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Conference USA predictions

C-USA East:
1. Western Kentucky (Conference champs)
2. Middle Tennessee
3. Old Dominion
4. Florida Atlantic (via tiebreaker)
5. Florida International
6. Marshall
7. Charlotte

C-USA West:
1. UTSA
2. Louisiana Tech
3. Southern Miss
4. North Texas
5. UTEP
6. Rice
7. UAB

There's only 1 more conference to go on this thread, and it's the Sun Belt! Tune in tomorrow for the start of that.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Georgia Southern

The first preview segment for the Sun Belt: The Georgia Southern Eagles

Last season: How many times did I say it, Tyson Summers? HOW MANY TIMES?! I TOLD you to not mess with the Eagles's vaunted option-run offense. Well, guess what? He messed with it, and soon the Eagles were ranked 91st in total offense en-route to a 5-7 record.
But at least Tyson's trying to fix it; he's bringing in new offensive coordinators and vowing to center more on the option. Will it get Georgia Southern back on track?

Good news: RB Wesley Fields could be a force to reckon with on the ground, especially with a strong O-line waiting for him. The secondary should be better than they were last year.

Bad news: Quarterback may be an issue early on, as neither Seth Shuman nor Shai Werts stood out in the spring. But the biggest worry is on the D-line; holes must be filled in quickly.

2017 X-factor: The unbalanced Sun Belt schedule- For one year only, the Sun Belt will have 12 teams in the conference (Idaho and New Mexico State are outta here next season). Yet all the teams will only have 8 conference games.
And here's the kicker: Georgia Southern's the only team that'll face it's fellow heavyweights (Troy, App. State, and Arkansas State). The good news is, if GSU beats at least 2 out of the 3 they could steal the conference title! ...Hey, it can happen.

Key games:
9/23 @ Indiana (This won't be an impossible game for the Eagles to win. They'll just have to find their way through a surprisingly good Hoosier defense.)
10/4 vs. Arkansas State (Just watch the game that these 2 went through last year. It'll set up this beauty better than I can.)
10/28 @ Troy (After a couple of years in the wilderness, Troy looks back to normal as a winning program. And boy, do the Eagles wanna change that.)
11/4 vs. Georgia State (This starts a series of "revenge games" for Georgia Southern, as App. State and UL-Lafayette is right afterwards. And also, the Panthers's stunning 30-24 win pushed the Eagles out of bowl contention in 2016.)

Bottom line: Eagles fans will be watching 2017's team with bated breath. If they have another losing season, it will NOT be pleasant in Statesboro. But, if the Eagles return to a bowl, they'll treat 2016 as "a minor hiccup". Got my fingers crossed for you, Mr. Summers!

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

New Mexico State

Preview segment: The New Mexico State Aggies

Last season: Yet another bad season as the Aggies went 3-9.

Good news: The offense could be the strongest NMSU has had in years, with Larry Rose, Tyler Rogers, and a veteran O-line.

Bad news: Despite 8 starters returning, there's still doubts about the defense (creating a pass-rush might help it improve). Oh, and the schedule's brutal with games at Arizona State and Arkansas included.

Key games:
9/9 @ New Mexico (You know, when the Aggies beat their in-state rivals 32-31 last year, it created SOME level of hope for the program. Let's hope we see that again!)
10/7 @ Appalachian State (Another example of that brutal schedule: New Mexico State must deal with App. State, Georgia Southern, and Arkansas State in October [and Troy beforehand].)
11/25 vs. Idaho (This will be the final encounter between these 2 rivals... at least with both of them as FBS teams.)
12/2 vs. South Alabama (The finale for NMSU's ill-fated return to the Sun Belt.)

Bottom line: Brace yourself, people. This year... NMSU has a legit chance to win 4 games! All they have to do is fix that defense and pray like hell that neither Rose nor Rogers gets hurt.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Texas State

Preview segment: The Texas State Bobcats

Last season: A rough 2-10, with no wins in conference play.

Good news: The linebackers look very good, and Damian Williams gives the Bobcats hope at quarterback.

Bad news: The secondary looks vulnerable, the running game has a ways to go, and depth continues to be an issue.

Key games:
9/16 vs. Appalachian State (Guarantee you that if Texas State pulls off the upset, hopes for a turnaround will explode in San Marcos.)
9/23 vs. UTSA (See above game.)
11/18 @ Arkansas State (By this time, we'll know if Texas State is still viable.)

Bottom line: Phew... After dealing with teams that have at least one interesting thing about them, it's refreshing to just say this: You can ignore this team in 2017.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Troy

Preview segment: The Troy Trojans

Last season: Happy times are back for this school from Alabama, as the Troy Trojans grabbed their first 10-win season since 2000 (and first at the FBS level). And we can thank the coaching of Neil Brown, the skill set of Brandon Slivers, and a pretty-good defense for that.

Bad news: Sadly, the D-line lost quite a few playmakers from 2016's team, including Rashad Dillard. And will the O-line have problems as well (they lost some strong tackles as well)?

Good news: If the O-line does hold it together, that'll do wonders for a offense that not only has Silvers, but playmakers at RB and WR.

Key games:
9/2 @ Boise State ( I'm dialed in for this one. And it should be a good QB duel between Brett Rypian and Brandon Slivers.)
10/11 vs. South Alabama (In this in-state matchup, Troy needs to watch out for the upset.)
10/28 vs. Georgia Southern (App. State and Arkansas State shared the Sun Belt title last season. And Troy could have done the same had they not lost to the Eagles 28-24 in their season finale.)
12/2 @ Arkansas State (Did you know that the Troy Trojans once had a Top 25 ranking in the AP poll? Arkansas State certainly does; they've got it hanged up on the wall in the coach's office after the Red Wolves capped Troy's @$$ 35-3.)

Bottom line: If Neil Brown solves his line problems, Troy will have more fun in 2017. But considering how easy App. State will have it in conference play, the Trojans might have to settle for sharing the Sun Belt title with them this season.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

UL-Lafayette

Preview segment: The Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns

Last season: It didn't look for the Cajuns as they were 3-5 entering November. But give the coaching staff some credit; they made the adjustments, the team bought in, and they managed to grab their 5th bowl game in 6 years after beating teams like Arkansas State and Georgia Southern.

Good news: The defense looks good, with a strong core at secondary. Play at the WR position is certain to improve...

Bad news: ...but who's gonna bail them out in the running game (Elijah McGuire is gone)? And it looks like Jordan Davis will be the starting QB in the fall, but can he step up?

2017 X-factor: NCAA sanctions- Call me slow, but I've recently found out about sanctions that had been imposed on the Cajuns. See, in 2011 there was illegal recruiting done by former linebacker coach David Saunders. Falsifying test scores or something.
Those sanctions end after this season, so it'll be interesting how they'll affect UL-Lafayette. And not just this season, the next season as well.

Key games:
9/9 @ Tulsa (An upset might just happen if the Cajuns defense comes out swinging.)
9/23 vs. Louisiana-Monroe (Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think this is the earliest these 2 bitter rivals have ever played each other.)
10/19 @ Arkansas State (You know, Arkansas State would have had the undisputed Sun Belt championship in 2016 had they not lost to Lafayette 24-19.)
11/25 vs. Georgia Southern (It's Senior Day in Lafayette, and it should be a good one; the Eagles want revenge, too.)

Bottom line: With 7 road games and questions at QB, making another bowl game won't be easy for the Cajuns. But if the defense holds it together, then that goal won't be out of reach.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Louisiana-Monroe

Preview segment: The Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks

Last season: In Matt Viator's 1st year, UL-Monroe went 4-8. Not bad, considering they went 2-11 the year before.

Good news: The Warhawks return a lot of starters, including a good O-line and strong linebackers.

Bad news: Creating more turnovers was a priority during the spring, and a pass-rush has to be found REAL quick.

2017 X-factor: RB Derrick Gore- With some luck, this Alabama transfer will give that Warhawk offense a boost.

Key games:
9/23 @ Louisiana-Lafayette (UL-Monroe's non-conference slate is hard, but this school's used to it by now. So let's focus on conference play.
And for the Warhawks, this is easily the biggest Sun Belt opener they'll have in years.)
9/30 vs. Coastal Carolina (Then afterwards, UL-Monroe will welcome the Chanticleers to the Sun Belt.)
10/21 @ South Alabama (UL-Monroe won a 42-35 OT thriller last year against the Jaguars.)
11/4 vs. Appalachian State (Last season, the Warhawks actually had a shot at a bowl entering November 19th. Then the Mountaineers pounded them 42-17, and that was the end of that.)

Bottom line: With Derrick Gore and a gaggle of starters returning, UL-Monroe should continue to improve in 2017. Mind you, that won't be enough for a bowl game, but they won't be pushovers.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Coastal Carolina

Preview segment: The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

Last season: You know... In the last decade we've had a few teams from the FCS jumping ship to join the highest division in college football: The FBS. Teams like Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, and Western Kentucky. Some even did it from scratch, like South Alabama, Texas San-Antonio, and Old Dominion.
And you know what? It hasn't been all that bad; all 6 of those schools have had success in one form or another.
Which is why this school from Conway, South Carolina believes they can succeed in the FBS right out of the gate.

Good news: It begins and ends with Joe Moglia, the former CEO of TD Ameritrade who has an extensive coaching background. And as he continues to assist this flourishing athletic program, he'll have good special teams and depth at the running game.

Bad news: The passing game could be a liability with the starting QB spot wide open and worries at wide-receiver.

Key games:
9/2 vs. UMass (Ooooo... Coastal Carolina starts their FBS career against a team desperate for a win at the FBS level? I'm SO ready for this one!)
9/30 @ Louisiana-Monroe, and 10/7 vs. Georgia State (The Chanticleers's first-ever games in the Sun Belt, the second one being their first home conference game. And if they play their cards right, I think they can win both of them.)
10/21 @ Appalachian State (Problem is, I think the Mountaineers [and the Red Wolves the week prior] will give Coastal Carolina their "Welcome to the Big Leagues" moment here...)
11/4 @ Arkansas (...which will be valuable practice for this game.)
12/2 vs. Georgia Southern (The Chanticleers's first Senior Day at the FBS level.)

Bottom line: The Chanticleers are ineligible for a bowl game this year. But remember what Georgia Southern did in 2014? Yeah, they stormed through the conference and won the Sun Belt title!
That probably won't happen for Coastal Carolina this year, as depth issues and the passing game may hold them down. But hey, there's always the hope.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Idaho

Preview segment: The Idaho Vandals

Last season: Whoa whoa whoa whoa, WHOA! WHOA, Idaho! This is NOT the way the FBS wanted you to leave; they wanted you guys to quietly fade away. But thanks to QB Matt Lineham and his knowledge of the offense, that's apparently not gonna happen; Idaho went 9-4 last season and some people are thinking they can do that again before leaving for the FCS.

Good news: If you combine Lineham's skills and the coach's resume of developing good receivers, that'll equal more points on the board. Idaho's defense is very skilled at causing turnovers.

Bad news: The D-line could have some struggles early on, but the biggest worry is... at punter?! That's right; Idaho will be missing do-everything kicker Austin Rehkow (now with the Buffalo Bills).

Key games:
9/23 @ South Alabama (This is a pivotal "swing-game" for the Vandals. If they stun South Alabama, they'll get a head-start in the Sun Belt race.)
10/14 vs. Appalachian State (More on this game when I preview the Mountaineers.)
11/2 @ Troy (Let's hope we get a QB duel between Matt Lineham and Brandon Silvers.)
11/18 vs. Coastal Carolina (The last Senior Day for Idaho at the FBS level.)
12/2 @ Georgia State (And here's Idaho's last game as an FBS member.)

Bottom line: Idaho may be the most interesting team in the Sun Belt in 2017. And that's what Paul Petrino wants; the Vandals will make some form of noise as they're saying their good-byes.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

App. State

Preview segment: The Appalachian State Mountaineers

Last season: Uh oh... Appalachian State is getting used to winning! I mean, despite their passing game being awful the Mountaineers got their 2nd straight 10-win season and 2nd straight bowl win.
And guess who's gonna benefit the most from this 12-team Sun Belt conference in 2017? Yep, the Mountaineers.

Bad news: App. State lost a few good players at linebacker, and the O-line remains a work in progress. Also, RB Marcus Cox is gone...

Good news: ...but Jalin Moore filled in for Cox last season and did great. And with QB Taylor Lamb back for one more year, Moore and the rest of the offense will be cruising along.

Key games:
9/2 @ Georgia (You're probably thinking "Ah, this is a sure L for App. State". Well, just remember this: App. State pushed Tennessee to the limit last season.)
9/23 vs. Wake Forest (Cool! We're getting a renewal of this in-state rivalry game [first meeting since 2001]! You know, Wake Forest and App. State played each other QUITE a few times in the 80's and 90's... and App. State did win a few of those games.)
10/14 @ Idaho (With no Troy or Arkansas State on the schedule, this may be the hardest conference game App. State will have all season.)
11/9 vs. Georgia Southern (But the Mountaineers DO get the Eagles again!)

Bottom line: Let's see... No big contenders on the conference slate, playmakers on offense... Yep! App. State is SO going undefeated in the Sun Belt in 2017. The only question left is, will they have to share the trophy with somebody else?

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Georgia State

Preview segment: The Georgia State Panthers

Last season: Trent Miles was sent packing from Georgia State after he went 2-8 in 2016 (Tim Lappano coached the last 2 games of GSU's season, going 1-1) and the team finished 3-9. Enter Shawn Elliott, who'll be looking for a turnaround in his first year.

Good news: 17 starters return, including good WR's and a study secondary.

Bad news: The Panthers defense looks weak up front, and they'll be injury concerns until proven otherwise (it's what sunk Georgia State last season).

2017 X-factor: Georgia State's new stadium- Once the Atlanta Braves left Turner Field, Georgia State saw a chance to change it into an open-air stadium, and it became a reality on January 5th of this year. We'll see over the next couple of years what this stadium will do for the team... and for recruiting.

Key games:
9/23 @ Charlotte (This game comes after visiting Penn State the week prior. Will the Panthers be able to recover?)
10/7 @ Coastal Carolina (A winnable conference opener, and it's against the newcomers to the Sun Belt.)
11/4 @ Georgia Southern (This rivalry game's getting somewhere! Just ask Georgia Southern, who lost 30-24 last year to the Panthers.)
11/25 vs. Appalachian State (If Georgia State stays healthy, maybe they can derail App. State in this game.)

Bottom line: The Panthers should be better over time, but concerns on defense and with the new system will equal no bowl for Georgia State in 2017.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Arkansas State

Preview segment: The Arkansas State Red Wolves

Last season: Wanna know why Arkansas State was so inspirational Arkansas State during the 2016 season? No, it wasn't the 8-1 record they tallied up during October, November, and December. And it wasn't the fact they got a piece of yet another Sun Belt championship.
No, it was the fact that entering October they were 0-4. And they still did all that.

Bad news: The WR position is a big worry after some players either graduated or got suspended. The defense also has some worries in the secondary.

Good news: However, the D-line should be fine with Je'Von Rolland-Jones (say that 3 times fast) still in Jonesboro. QB Justice Hansen is a playmaker, and RB Warren Ward can score points as well.

2017 X-factor: The offensive line- Here's the key, though: Warren will be running behind an all-new O-line. That's always a worry, but if that line gels quickly Arkansas State will be fine.

Key games:
9/16 vs. Arkansas Pine-Bluff (It's great that the Red Wolves recovered from losing to Central Arkansas last year, but it still had to be pretty embarrassing.)
10/4 @ Georgia Southern (It was hard for Ark. State to start 0-4, but when they pulled off a win over Georgia Southern, the players began to believe again.)
10/19 vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (I said the Red Wolves got a piece of the Sun Belt title. Had they not lost to the Cajuns, they could have had the whole enchilada.)
12/2 vs. Troy (Call it a hunch, but I think this game will decide who'll get at least a share of the Sun Belt title.)

Bottom line: Normally, a team who lost key players in the secondary and has an all-new O-line would be projected to finish 6-6... or worse. But Arkansas State was put through the wringer in 2016 and they turned out OK, so I wouldn't be surprised if they do it again. Just start planning another bowl trip for these guys.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

South Alabama

The last preview segment for the Sun Belt: The South Alabama Jaguars

Last season: You guys wanna know which "Group of 5" school drove me the most crazy in 2016? It wasn't Western Michigan, it wasn't Boise State, and it wasn't even Houston. It was South Alabama.
I mean, early in the season they shocked teams like Mississippi State and a ranked San Diego State team. Normally, that would equal a push for the "New Year's Six", or at least a 8-to-9 win season. So, HOW THE HELL DID THEY FINISH 6-7?! I don't GET IT!

Good news: A good defense returns to Mobile, including a solid secondary and depth on the D-line. QB Dallas Davis is back to lead the offense.

Bad news: However, his O-line must play better. That also goes for his wide-receivers.

Key games:
9/2 @ Ole Miss (Ole Miss may be ineligible for a bowl, but they're still gonna remember what the Jaguars did to Mississippi State the year before.)
10/11 @ Troy (This should be a good one: QB Brandon Silvers verses that Jaguar secondary.)
10/21 vs. Louisiana-Monroe, and 11/4 vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (Both of these games are in Mobile, and both will be revenge games for South Alabama after inexplicable losses to the both of them last season.)
11/11 vs. Arkansas State (If the offense is rolling at this point, the Jaguars should have a good Senior Day here.)

Bottom line: The Jaguars showed flashes of brilliance in making their 2nd-ever bowl game in 2016, but now in 2017 it's all about consistency. And something's telling me South Alabama will win more than 2 conference games this season and push for another bowl game... I hope.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Sun Belt predictions

ATTENTION! This will be my final post on this thread, as I'll be starting my "Power 5" previews very shortly. Before that, though, here's how I see the Sun Belt in 2017:

1. Appalachian State
2. Troy
3. Georgia Southern
4. Idaho
5. Arkansas State
6. South Alabama
7. Louisiana-Lafayette
8. New Mexico State
9. Louisiana-Monroe
10. Georgia State
11. Coastal Carolina
12. Texas State

...And with that, I'll see you guys on my preview thread for the ACC!