Dville's 4th annual CFB preview thread

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

South Florida

Preview segment: The South Florida Bulls

Last season: Remember the Jim Leavitt days at South Florida? Remember the 2007 season where USF was #2 in the country for a cup of coffee? Well, their 2016 season has it beat! With Marlon Mack and Quinton Flowers being led by veteran coach Willie Taggart USF stormed to 11 wins, a bowl victory over South Carolina, and finishing #19 in the final AP poll.
Well, with both Taggart and Marlon gone, you'd think that won't happen again in Tampa in 2017. Well...

Good news: There ARE a few experienced people that can fill in at RB, which is good news for powerful QB Quinton Flowers (who's already getting love from NFL scouts). There's also some All-AAC players returning on defense, including proud CB Deatrick Nichols. Plus, the schedule's very kind.

Bad news: Despite those All-AAC players on defense, USF ranked 120th in total defense last year; improvements must be made there, and quick. The O-line may be a weak spot early on at left-tackle.

2017 X-factor: Charlie Strong- But not for the reason you might think. You're probably saying "Man, he was a flop at Texas! Can he handle this, what's he doing here, what if he screws up our bowl chances...", ah, Charlie will be fine!
Let's instead focus on their expectations: Right now in Tampa, it's "New Year's Six or bust!" So what if USF loses and someone like, say, Boise State or Toledo threatens to take their spot in the "New Year's Six"? How will Charlie rally the troops? And can he get the defense's morale up if it fails? There's a lot of "What If's" in Tampa right now.

Key games:
9/15 vs. Illinois (The Bulls SHOULD win this one against the struggling Illini. But the big story here won't be USF playing a "Power 5" school...)
9/21 vs. Temple (...it'll be all about "Will USF be distracted by the upcoming Temple game?". Don't forget, Temple got into the AAC title game last year by beating the Bulls.)
11/4 vs. Houston (Houston has known great success in the AAC, so they won't be distracted here in Tampa. Mr. Quinton has to be on his A-game here.)
11/24 @ UCF (As I said earlier, this is easily the biggest game in the AAC East this year.)

Bottom line: Look. I nitpicked a lot in this preview, but it still doesn't take away the fact that USF has a TON of talent right now. With a great QB and strong hope for an improved defense, USF is a shoo-in for the AAC East and nearly everyone's pick (including me) to win the conference title.
But will South Florida crash the "New Year's Six"? ...Um, can I get back to you on that?

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

East Carolina

Preview segment: The East Carolina Pirates

Last season: A terrible 3-9, and you can blame that god-awful defense of theirs.

Bad news: Improving that defense is a must for ECU, but there are other issues. Mainly special teams, which were atrocious last year.

Good news: I'm not worried about the offense; whoever is the starting QB will have a LOT of good WR's (and a more consistent O-line) to help him. And there is SOME hope on defense; the secondary looks to be all set.

Key games:
9/2 vs. James Madison (Yes, ECU, I know you have games with West Virginia and Virginia Tech. But hear me out: Do you wanna get embarrassed by the defending FCS champs BEFORE those aforementioned games? I didn't think so.)
9/30 vs. USF (Afterwards, the Pirates will have 2 weeks to prep for the AAC favorites to come visit Greenville.)
10/21 vs. BYU (BYU could be bruised and battered by the time this game comes about.)
11/25 @ Memphis (If all goes well, ECU can have a 3-game winning streak entering their season finale.)

Bottom line: It's Scottie Montogomery's 2nd year at ECU, so everyone should be more comfortable with his play-calling. But unless the defense gets better, ECU will have to outshoot everyone to make a bowl game in 2017... and I don't see that happening.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Navy

Preview segment: The Navy Midshipmen

Last season: Statistically, 2016 was one of the best seasons Navy had ever had. I mean, despite fighting the injury bug, entering the month of December Navy was 9-2 with a strong offense and a #19 ranking in the CFP polls all thanks to a strong offense.
...And then the bug FINALLY caught up to them as they fell to Temple in the AAC title game. And I just KNOW losing to both Air Force and Army had to hurt.

Bad news: Navy's pass defense got burned last season and must get better. There are concerns with the new starting QB Zach Abey, especially since they don't have a go-to WR right now.

Good news: Luckily, Navy's first 3 games won't be very hard, so there'll be time for Zach to get situated. And as usual, the running game at Navy looks strong with FB Chris High leading the way. Keep an eye on DE Jarvis Polu, too.

Key games:
9/30 @ Tulsa (This will be the first major test for Zach Abey, as well as Navy's pass defense.)
10/7 vs. Air Force (You just know that retaking that "Commander-In-Chief" trophy will be priority #1 in Annapolis in 2017.)
11/18 @ Notre Dame (When Navy held off the Irish 28-27 last season, they snapped a 5-game losing streak to the Irish. On a completely unrelated note, did you know that Navy once had a 43-game losing streak to Notre Dame?)
11/24 @ Houston (Something tells me that this game will decide the AAC West for the 3rd year in a row. And don't forget: Navy was the one that knocked Houston out of their lofty Top 10 ranking last October.)
12/9 vs. Army [in Philadelphia] (A 14-game winning streak to Army died 6 months ago in Baltimore.)

Bottom line: Coach Ken Niumatalolo will begin his 10th season at Navy shortly, and he's only had 1 losing season (5-7 in 2011) in his previous 9 seasons. He knows what he's doing, so if the defense gets better (How many times have I said that this week?) and if Zach Abey holds down the fort at QB, they might return to the AAC title game! ...Or at least, make yet another bowl game.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Tulane

Preview segment: The Tulane Green Wave

Last season: Let's face it. Willie Fritz had no shot in his first year at Tulane, as installing new schemes with a green-as-can-be QB resulted in an awful offense. But the record (4-8) was a little better than I expected.

Good news: The defense was better than expected last season, and most of it returns including a good secondary.

Bad news: O-line play has been a concern at Tulane for years, and 2017's may be no different.

2017 X-factor: QB Jonathan Banks- Last I checked, Mr. Banks will be the starting QB for the Green Wave. He has the move-set needed to make Fritz's offense go, but will his lack of experience hurt him?

Key games:
9/2 vs. Grambling State (With Navy, Oklahoma, and Army staring down the Green Wave, a good start is essential. Don't forget; Grambling won the "Celebration Bowl" last year.)
10/7 vs. Tulsa (At this time, Tulsa may still be finding it's way, so this'll be a perfect place for Tulane to pull the upset.)
11/4 vs. Cincinnati (A battle of teams looking to move up in the AAC.)
11/18 vs. Houston (Senior Day for most of that Tulane defense.)

Bottom line: The diagnosis for this Tulane team isn't AS bad as recent years, with a good defense ready to go. But ANY chance for the Wave to move up in the crowded AAC West depends on the offense finding it's groove, and that might take another year.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

UConn

The final preview segment for the American: The Connecticut Huskies

Last season: A terrible 3-9 that spelled the end of Bob Diaco's time in East Hartford. Now UConn looks to start over with... Randy Edsall?!

2017 X-factor: New coach Randy Edsall- Yep, the same guy who managed to get UConn to the Fiesta Bowl that one year. So maybe that's why UConn welcomed him back after his tenure at Maryland ended so abruptly. We'll see if the 58-year old man can do it again.

Good news: Randy's already making big changes to the UConn offense, going with a faster tempo. A good O-line will help with this adjustment, and the defense looks okay...

Bad news: ...but it lost quite a few good people in the secondary. There's a messy QB race that needs to get settled, and the kicking game is a question mark.

Key games:
9/9 vs. USF (A tough AAC opener for UConn, but an upset win is not impossible. It'll all depend on UConn finding a stable QB to lead the way.)
9/16 @ Virginia (Beating the Cavaliers 13-10 was the highlight of UConn's 2016 season.)
10/21 vs. Tulsa (This begins a weird homestand for the Huskies; after playing Tulsa they'll host Missouri and East Carolina over the next 2 weeks.)
11/18 vs. Boston College [at Fenway Park] (A fun neutral-site game between 2 east-coast teams? Or a careful ploy by Boston College to suck up to their fans in Boston? You decide.)

Bottom line: I'm not saying that I'll be ignoring UConn in 2017; Randy Edsall made sure that I wouldn't. But there WILL be some transition shock with that new offense, which will make things tough... and send the Huskies home for the holidays.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

AAC Predictions

AAC East:
1. South Florida (Conference champs; Maybe "New Year's Six")
2. Central Florida
3. Temple
4. East Carolina
5. Cincinnati
6. Connecticut

AAC West:
1. Houston
2. Memphis
3. Navy
4. Tulsa
5. SMU
6. Tulane

Man... This conference was harder than I thought. Maybe the Mountain West will be easier (Begins tomorrow!).

 

[Boise4Life]

AAC Predictions

AAC East:
1. South Florida (Conference champs; Maybe "New Year's Six")
2. Central Florida
3. Temple
4. East Carolina
5. Cincinnati
6. Connecticut

AAC West:
1. Houston
2. Memphis
3. Navy
4. Tulsa
5. SMU
6. Tulane

Man... This conference was harder than I thought. Maybe the Mountain West will be easier (Begins tomorrow!).

Over the past year or so this conference has gotten really tough and has now surpassed the MWC as currently the best of the group of fives.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Over the past year or so this conference has gotten really tough and has now surpassed the MWC as currently the best of the group of fives.

And it just burns you up, doesn't it?

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Fresno State

The first preview segment for the Mountain West: The Fresno State Bulldogs

Last season: Oh, how the mighty have fallen. This once-proud pillar of the mid-major's, this school that got famous for it's "Play anyone, anywhere" mantra, crashed and burned in 2016 with a 1-11 mark.
So of course, Tim DeRuyter got the boot and former Cal coach Jeff Tedford has stepped in.

Good news: Hey! Fresno's finally found a QB! His name is Chason Virgil and he should thrive in Tedford's new offense. A good batch of wide-receivers should help as well.

Bad news: Losing 4 of your top 7 tacklers probably won't help a run defense that was awful in 2016.

2017 X-factor: Life after September- All I heard about Fresno's schedule is about how hard it is. "Oh no, Alabama's gonna crush them, and Washington's gonna be mean to them..." Look, we all KNOW that. I'm more worried about the aftermath; what's gonna happen AFTER those games? How will the offense hold up? You know, those type of questions.

Key games:
9/30 vs. Nevada (Speaking of which, this should be a good pick-me-up win for Fresno against a fellow rebuilding team.)
10/7 @ San Jose State, and 11/11 @ Hawaii (In the last 2 games of the season, Fresno lost to their 2 most hated rivals by a total of 3 points! Ouch!)
11/4 vs. BYU (Let's hope for a QB duel between Chason Virgil and Tanner Mangum here.)

Bottom line: Coach Tedford is already making strides to fix the Bulldogs. And he had revived a down-trodden California school once already, so Fresno should be fine in the future. Right now, though... Nah. Let's wait another year, OK?

 

[Boise4Life]

And it just burns you up, doesn't it?

Nah. It's all good. What burns me up is Boise hasn't won the MWC the last couple of years.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

San Jose State

Preview segment: The San Jose State Spartans

Last season: Actually, San Jose had a lot in common with Fresno in 2016: Their run defense sucked, they stayed home for the holidays, and they also fired their head coach. But unlike Fresno's hire, I never heard of Brent Brennan until recently.

2017 X-factor: New head coach Brent Brennan- From what I've read, he's a native of California and he's a wiz at recruiting. That sounds like a winning formula for this California school, but how long will it take him to get it going?

Bad news: From the looks of their present QB situation, pretty long indeed; we have 4 QB's fighting for 1 starting spot. The D-line has to get a lot better.

Good news: The Spartans have a good group of skill players on offense, and the kicking game is rock-solid. Watch for Andre Chachere in the secondary.

Key games:
8/26 vs. South Florida (Huh... I always thought Hawaii played the 13-game slate in the Mountain West. Oh well. Anyway, this starts a HARD non-conference slate for the Spartans, as they gotta go to Texas, Utah, and BYU later on.)
9/23 vs. Utah State (San Jose's in luck; Utah State is expected to struggle, too!)
10/7 vs. Fresno State (Another installment of this bitter rivalry series.)
11/11 @ Nevada (San Jose did beat Nevada last season 14-10)

Bottom line: San Jose State may be better off than Fresno State in 2017, but questions at QB and worries about the defense will equal no bowl game... just like Fresno.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

New Mexico

Preview segment: The New Mexico Lobos

Last season: Fans of New Mexico football aren't too demanding; all they want is a good team that occasionally goes to bowl games. So I'll bet those guys went wild when the Lobos finished 9-4 and scored a bowl victory in 2016.

Good news: Running has been the Lobos' bread-and-butter for years, and that looks to continue with RB Tyrone Owens and QB Lamar Jordan leading the way.

Bad news: 9 starters are gone from the defense, including some good linebackers. The O-line may struggle early on as well.

Key games:
9/9 vs. New Mexico State (When the Aggies stunned their in-state rivals 32-31, it snapped a 4-game winning streak for the Lobos. For New Mexico's sake, that better not happen again...)
9/14 @ Boise State (...because they'll have this big game 5 days later. Did you know that the Lobos shared the Mountain division title with the Broncos? Boise State certainly will.)
9/30 vs. Air Force (Over the last few years, this series has been the battle of the running games.)
10/28 @ Wyoming (Did you know that the Lobos also shared the Mountain division title with the Cowboys? Wyoming certainly will.)

Bottom line: On paper, the Lobos looks ready to go for another division title. But with Wyoming and Colorado State thinking the same thing and Boise State being... well, Boise State, it won't be easy. A bowl game looks reachable, but anything above that requires more improvement from their defense.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Air Force

Preview segment: The Air Force Falcons

Last season: Like New Mexico, the Air Force uses the running game to great effect. And it was more of the same as they grabbed their 2nd 10-win season in 3 years. Anything else? Oh yeah, they defeated Boise State AGAIN!

Good news: QB Arion Worthman knows how to run that triple-option attack the Falcons have, and his helpers at tailback and on the O-line looks good as well.

Bad news: However, there'll be question marks at WR until someone steps up to replace record-setter Jalen Robinette.

2017 X-factor: The Falcons defense- In every CFB magazine I've read, people are freaking out over Air Force's all-new defense (only 1 starter returns). But the style will remain the same, so I'll wait and see if that unit holds it together or not.

Key games:
9/16 @ Michigan (One strike against that unit, however, is a hard September slate. After starting against VMI, they'll try to survive in Ann Arbor.)
9/23 vs. San Diego State (And then, they'll shoot for an upset win over the Aztecs, and I think they can do it. Then after going to New Mexico...)
10/7 @ Navy (...it'll be time to defend their hard-won Commander-in-Chief trophy.)
10/28 @ Colorado State (Last year, Air Force beat the Rams in a wild 49-46 affair. And the Falcons will need this one more, 'cause Army is right afterwards.)
11/18 @ Boise State (Of course, you can't forget this one. Boise certainly won't.)

Bottom line: Much like Tulsa in the AAC and Northern Illinois in the MAC, Air Force is the wild-card of the Mountain West. The offense looks ready for a title run, but will the defense crumble? And will Navy or Army take advantage and swipe that Commander-in-Chief trophy? We'll find out soon enough.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Colorado State

Preview segment: The Colorado State Rams

Last season: A pretty "blah" 7-6 season in CSU's final season at Hughes Stadium. However, they do have wins over New Mexico and San Diego State to hang their hats on.

Bad news: With games against Oregon State and Alabama in the first month of the season, you just know that weak-points on the O-line (including tight-end) are gonna get exploited early on.

Good news: Strangely, that might be it for weak-points. If the O-line holds it together, QB Nick Stevens and his helpers at RB and WR will put up a LOT of points. Watch for Toby McBride on the D-line to do some damage.

Key games:
8/26 vs. Oregon State (It's the grand opening for Colorado State's new stadium! The Beavers should be SO lucky.)
9/1 vs. Colorado [in Denver] (We all know what type of season Colorado had in 2016, and the Rams are REALLY hoping that this resurgence isn't long-term.)
9/30 @ Hawaii (After healing from their trip to Tuscaloosa, the Rams will start conference play against the Rainbow Warriors.)
10/28 vs. Air Force (This starts a critical 3-week stretch for the Rams, as after this they visit Wyoming...)
11/11 vs. Boise State (...and then have a big showdown at home against good ol' Boise.)

Bottom line: With the new stadium opening soon, and with a good team returning, you can't blame Colorado State for being so excited. Their offense will help them achieve a bowl invite, but any shot at the Mountain division hinges on the Rams defense stopping Boise State.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

San Diego State

Preview segment: The San Diego State Aztecs

Last season: Last year, San Diego State finished in the final AP poll of the season (#25) for the first time since 1977. I guess that comes naturally after they seized their 2nd straight Mountain West title and going 11-3, all while featuring a record-setter named Donnel Pumphrey.
Yet I'll bet that a few people in San Diego were grumbling that the Aztecs didn't make a "New Year's Six" bowl game last year. Oh well, there's always this year!

Good news: Yes, Donnel is gone, but new RB Rashaad Penny looks more than ready to fill his shoes. QB Christian Chapman is an experienced QB, and the defense looks good (especially the secondary).
I don't know why some folks don't have them winning the conference! Dark side, do you know?

Bad news: ...Really? ...OK, that good defense DID lose some playmakers, and the cornerback spot looks a little dodgy. What else?
...Oooo... SDSU's O-line lost 4 starters that combined for 130 career starts? Okay, now I know why those people are so skeptical.

Key games:
9/9 @ Arizona State (The Sun Devils may be down, but they'll still put some points on the board. So this will be a perfect teat for that Aztec defense.)
9/16 vs. Stanford (It's in San Diego, but Stanford will be fired up after their game with USC [win or lose], so this will be tough. However, imagine how joyous the Aztecs will be if they somehow pull this off.)
10/14 vs. Boise State (If the preseason magazines are correct, this matchup will be a preview of the Mountain West championship game in December.)
10/28 @ Hawaii (Uh, Aztecs? You BETTER not underestimate Hawaii in this one. They'll remember you crushing them 55-0 last year in San Diego.)

Bottom line: ...Ah, my dark side's wrong on this one. I still have faith in the Aztecs, and with a good QB and Rashaad Penny ready to go they're my pick to win a 3rd straight Mountain West title. However, if they fail to do that we'll all know who's to blame: That offensive line. So, you know, no pressure.

 

[Olyduck]

Over the past year or so this conference has gotten really tough and has now surpassed the MWC as currently the best of the group of fives.

Mountain West kinda died as far as being best of G5 when BYU, Utah and TCU moved on

 

[Boise4Life]

Mountain West kinda died as far as being best of G5 when BYU, Utah and TCU moved on

Agreed, but even from 2011-2014 which was after Utah and BYU left in 2011 (with TCU leaving the following year), I would still say the Mountain West was definitely the strongest of the non-AQs/Group of 5. These last two seasons it's become very evident that the AAC is by far and away now the best of the rest and I don't anticipate that to change in 2017. That's a pretty dang good conference that's really improved recently.

 

[Olyduck]

Agreed, but even from 2011-2014 which was after Utah and BYU left in 2011 (with TCU leaving the following year), I would still say the Mountain West was definitely the strongest of the non-AQs/Group of 5. These last two seasons it's become very evident that the AAC is by far and away now the best of the rest and I don't anticipate that to change in 2017. That's a pretty dang good conference that's really improved recently.

Just doesn't feel like MWC has mainstays outside of Boise. after that you get some decent years out of San Diego State and Air Force the rest are here and there types.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Nevada

Preview segment: The Nevada Wolfpack

Last season: Despite going to 2 straight bowl games in 2014 and 2015, one 5-7 season spelled the end of Brian Polian's tenure at Nevada. In comes 30-year coaching veteran Jay Norvell, who inherits a demanding fan-base and a deflated roster. Good luck.

Good news: The secondary is the best it's ever been at Nevada, and RB James Butler is back for one more season.

Bad news: Depth is an issue in a LOT of places, including the O-line, linebacker, and most importantly at WR. Plus, the offense's move from the Pistol to the Air-Raid means there'll be QUITE the transition shock... at least in 2017.

2017 X-factor: QB David Cornwell- With those depth issues, Nevada REALLY needs a competent QB to help them, or else they'll be screwed. Mr. Cornwell has the arm needed to run the Air-Raid offense, so we'll see if he can handle it.

Key games:
9/9 vs. Toledo (This is a must-win for Nevada's confidence, and we'll have a shootout here... ideally.)
9/30 @ Fresno State (The loser here may be doomed to finish last in the West division. But if Nevada wins this...)
10/7 vs. Hawaii (...it'll bode well entering this game with Hawaii.)
11/25 vs. UNLV (Another installment of this bitter rivalry.)

Bottom line: Coach Norvell is a coaching veteran, so I have faith in him. But with a thin roster and a hard schedule, it'll be a "learning year" for Nevada as the Air-Raid takes hold. Let's wait until 2018, OK?

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Utah State

Preview segment: The Utah State Aggies

Last season: Uh oh, I'm seeing a negative trend here! From a 11-2 record in 2012, to 9-4, to 10-3, to 6-7, and then the bottom fell out on the Aggies as they went 3-9 in 2016.

Good news: QB Kent Myers is back for his senior year, and with a faster offensive plan he should put up more points. The secondary looks good as well.

Bad news: Defensive improvement may be impossible, as the D-line have major holes to fill. The O-line has problems as well; only 1 starter returns.

Key games:
9/23 @ San Jose State (After dealing with Wisconsin and Wake Forest early on, Utah State will relish this chance to fight a rebuilding Spartan team. And let's hope the Aggies win...)
9/29 vs. BYU (...because the "Battle For the Beehive Boot" will follow.)
11/4 @ New Mexico (The Aggies pushed the Lobos hard last year before losing 24-21.)

Bottom line: Sorry if I sounded bored in this preview, but I just can't get excited for Utah State in 2017; the Mountain division is LOADED and the Aggies might get buried. Let's hope their offense gets better and push for a bowl berth, 'cause if not Utah State will be in REAL big trouble next season.