Dusty's Managerial Gaffes 2013 Season

[JohnU]

All Dusty needed to do yesterday was play fundamentals 101 with his pitcher. Leake can't score 5 runs on his own but he had gone much farther into the game with much more success than at any point in the last 2 years. Did we need a CG or a W? We got neither.

The math about 50 you can't win, 50 you can't lose ... and the other 62 up for grabs, this one was maybe winnable in the 9th. (Not like that wasn't done before, right?).

We have the top 2 OBP guys in MLB on the same lineup and can't score 2 runs.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Figures don't lie, but liars often figure. Dusty has said in the past the Reds are 2nd ( or whatever) in runs, so there isn't a problem on offense. Those are the figures, but the analysis from them is flawed. If you aren't scoring enough to win your division, and your pitching and defense are good, I'd argue you have a problem on offense. Winning 11-3 once a week and losing 2-1 for the next 3 games isn't the same as scoring 3.5 per game... It can be the difference in going 1-3 and going 4-0.

I've always believed that problems are always present, success lies in the resolution of them. Baseball is a game of adjustments... The Reds just need to adjust a little more effectively. Tug McGraw said " you gotta believe"... it's true. You have to have confidence what you're doing is going to work, and if you have any sense, you need to play sound fundamentals to be believable. Too often with the Reds, the best reinforcement comes from unlikely scenarios- 2 out hits, solo homers, and being the recipient of a bases loaded walk.
I'd rather rely on a little more execution of baseball 101, instead of expecting regular miracles.

 

[JohnU]

The scouting report on Cincy is to simply throw strikes. First-pitch strikes. The odds of getting the guy out after an 0-1 count goes up so much it's not even funny. So the Reds hitters, knowing this, try to outguess the opponent by swinging at the first thing they see, which is somehow not that hard to recognize. So, throw that one in the dirt. Never mind, strike one.

Recognizing a hittable pitch seems like what most major league hitters and coaches ought to be working on, even during the game, even on the on-deck circle.

Instead, the Reds go down on 15 pitches in the first inning, 9 pitches in the second, maybe squeeze out a 1-out walk to the 7 hitter and then either get the K or the popup. After that, just beat the pitcher back to the dugout.

After 3 innings, 0 runs, 0 hits, 1 left ... pitches seen ... oh, about 35.

 

[Redsfan1507]

We just don't know how communication and mental process works on the team. On all really good teams I have been around, people were usually on the same page. Consistency was the norm, because the same things were consistently prioritized, and people bought in, frankly, because it worked. MLB has different motivations of course, agents will tell clients that 30hr and a .250 BA pays better than 15 Hr and .295, but there are scouts in D-1 saying the same things, and HS players take those splits for D-1 or MLB draft, or Pudunk Community College...

The universal key has to be winning, and that means people have to fit into logical roles, and understand how all the parts assemble to make the motor run. I've always seen evidence that our Reds either have miscast roles, or misinterpreted skills, and / or not been on the same page to a game plan that fits skill sets. It's just an opinion based loosely on observation, but I don't see sound attempts failing as much as flawed attempts failing... and I usually fault the manager and GM more for those things than players. Just me.

 

[JohnU]

I think we can fault the manager who builds a lineup based on position.
I remember in grade school, the batting order was 1-through-9, which meant the pitcher batted first. Why? Because the teacher didn't want to make lineups, just wanted kids to bat. We didn't mind. It made sense to us. The right fielder batted last. No big deal.

So when Ludwick went down, Dusty's lineup went to hell and he fixed it by doing the only other thing he knows about baseball -- CF leads off, SS bats next, and Votto bats third.

Instead of actually looking at how a lineup works, he had the onus removed by the luck of the draw when Ludwick wrecked his shoulder.

Even if you moved everyone up one spot behind Choo, you'd still have 3 outs in a row, but you'd have 5 guys churning the lineup in the first inning. You'd get a couple of runs.

Now, you get no runs until the 6th inning and hope that's enough.

I was a long time before I decided to go full-bore into Dusty bashing. Let him have the benefit of doubt. This year, he's proven to be inept and his coaches (Price aside) have proven to be just as remotely connected to the strategy of winning baseball.

The Leake pitching into the 8th on Wednesday capped it off for me. I cannot believe this moron thought Leake had enough in his tank to get through the order a 4th time. Then lets Marshall pitch to one batter. Marshall ... not a LOOGY, but all the same, Dusty is pinin' for a LOOGY.

F***in' stupid.

 

[WvuDieHard]

Redsfan1507 and JohnU11---you both are some of most knowledgeable baseball guys on the internet and it is a privledge to read your posts. I am not the most knowledable baseball guy but I do see issues.

This has to be one of the worst 2 strike hitting clubs I have ever seen. I only have confidence in Votto and Choo to get a hit on a pitcher with two strikes. I get up and smoke or hit the fridge when the rest of these hackers get 2 strikes. So what gives there? Are they not told to shorten up and make contact? Isn't that a hitting coaches philosophy?

You have these sparadic spells of not scoring runs because of plate dicipline. Coaches are on the payroll to make that consistent across the lineup and the roster. Now you take this type of plate dicipline and mix it with Dustmop's maniacle line ups, Pinch hitting, and pitcher management strategy and you have a good recipe for inconsistency.

Make no mistake about it, the players have to execute but since DustMop is such a good guy and a players manager, is there really a since of urgency? Say what you will about Earl Weaver and Jim Leyland but these guys will get up in your grill when you are fuckin up.

I had a guy in my office yesterday morning and a Single A affiliate (Potomac Cannons) coach, he looked on my wall and saw 8 baseball cards under glass of the starting lineup for the 75-76 Reds. I told him I am a big Reds fan and he said: " I dont understand how the Reds haven't won a World Series in the lasst 2 years because they have the most young talent in the game" He convinced me of everything I already knew and that is,with the exception of Price,--OUR COACHES ARE ATROCIOUS!

 

[Redsfan1507]

My personal Dusty migraine is trying to understand how he thinks... how can he refuse to bunt a leadoff double to 3b...yet he attempts steals routinely with a 2 strike count and 1 out...then says he tried small ball and it doesn't work... and he refuses to hit back to back lefty hitters in his lineup, but will routinely leave his lefty relievers in to face righty hitters...he doesn't always walk an opposing hitter with 1b open in a potential DP situation, sometimes even with the pitcher on deck, but he'll sometimes try to steal 2b in front of Votto, which usually guarantees taking the bat out of his hands. I just don't understand his translation of baseball 101.

Dusty has won about 1600 more MLB games than I have though.

 

[JohnU]

I work at being fair and assume that most games, it's about execution and not strategy. In effect, hitting a baseball is difficult. I concede that most hitters will make an out about 73 percent of the time.

The Reds are hitting .245 as a team. It's not at the bottom of baseball, not at the top.
It's pathetic, all the same.

When Chris Welsh almost has a baby when somebody hits the ball to the right side with less than 2 outs, I know something is going wrong. The subtle hints he and Thom issued in the Atlanta series suggest that we aren't the only ones who notice this stuff.

If the team can't win, you do one of three things. And one of them is to NOT replace all the ballplayers in the second week of May.

If a .543 W-L pct. is good enough to give Dusty his precious 1,600 wins, I need to remind him ... the games he HAS NOT won yet are the ones that interest me. The rest of them are just old news.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Dusty is 18th on the all time Win list.

He's also 19th on the all time Loss list, but that's a secret I guess.

I may be wrong, but I get the impression that a sense of urgency doesn't exist in Dusty, except when his contract is about to expire.

I don't think Dusty is stupid, and I do think he wants to win. I just think he's a CYA first priority manager, though. I think he's made a living winning only a fraction more than he loses by shrewdly signing with teams without recent winning history( less pressure to win every year) constantly asking for more talent, and doing as little as possible that he could be blamed for, and NEVER admitting a mistake on his part. He leaves as much as possible up to the players, and doesn't give many signals except "hit away" and a high five after a homer. That way, when he doesn't win, it's either the GM or the players fault. Voting "present" has gotten politicians elected, and it keeps Dusty employed.

 

[JohnU]

Just wonder how angry these players have to get before they start kicking around a couple of water coolers.

 

[Redsfan1507]

And go DL for broken foot.

 

[JohnU]

Yeah, we could call up Willie Harris and tell him to go postal for the team.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I've seen some people tear some shit up in a dugout. I did it myself once as a dumbass hothead kid. Pulled part of a bat rack down and a 60 year old coach trying to escape slipped on a bat and broke his tailbone. Cost me a benching and about a month of what i made at the time to repay damage. The old guy probably never got repaired completely. I felt like an idiot. So I stopped throwing crap and started using bad language instead... developed into real master of the art of the verbal assault. All that ever cost me was an occasional ejection and some lowered standing in better society...and didn't hurt anything but my mothers expectations.

 

[smokerch15]

My personal favorite at the moment: Telling Cozart to be more aggressive at the plate (swing earlier in the count) and yet continue to bat him 2nd in the order. Your #2 guy in the order is to see pitches, thereby allowing the lead-off man (his name is Choo and is seemingly ALWAYS on base) a chance to steal... or to at least allow your "manager" the chance to put on a hit-and-run. Your #2 guy in the order can't be afraid to hit with 2 strikes. Instead, we are telling ours to swing early...

 

[Redsfan1507]

... or bunting him on the first pitch in the first inning, without giving Choo an opportunity to steal 2b first. Dusty would forget the PB in a PB&J.

 

[JohnU]

Tonight's other gaffe ... having Simon try to bunt with Leake sitting there, fully capable. Gonna lift the pitcher anyhow. Simon hasn't had a sac bunt in 7 years, and none in the big leagues.

 

[WvuDieHard]

Tonight we witnessed a glaring fact: DustMop is brain dead. Ok. Let set the table here. You have Lutz on first and nobody out. Simon is due up having pitched 2 innings. Dustmop will try to have Simon sacrifice bunt Lutz to second even though Simon has not had a sac in 7 YEARS. Simon strikes out looking like a girl scout. Ok no big deal right? Then in the next inning, here comes Lecure. Are you kidding me? WTF was that? What purpose did that serve? Shear and utter stupidity my friends. This is another example that didnt cost us a game but it is consistent with the BS that DUSTMOP does all year. It costs the Reds about 6-7 wins a year. Unquestionably, the worst manager in the big leagues and because he is a minority he can keep his job doing insane crap like that. The fans and players deserve a better manager.

 

[JohnU]

I don't think I would ever sac bunt the leadoff guy to second if the leadoff guy had walked. Clearly I want to see if this starter can handle the stress of not having his control in the first inning.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Dusty doesn't learn anything. He had Cozart put down a first inning bunt with Choo at 1b, no outs...against a pitcher only slightly better at holding runners than Homer Bailey. Why not steal Choo to 2b, THEN bunt him to 3b with only1 out ? They'll walk Votto, but then you have a situation where even if BP is a DP, you score a run. It took a hit to score from 2b with 1 out...and of course, the Reds didn't score.

90 % of fans will not notice, and because the Reds won, will in fact applaud Dusty's managing of the game. IMO, any team that wins with Dusty, does so in spite of him most times. It's a lot easier to beat inferior competition with an inferior manager- it's why the Reds don't win against equal talent very often. Check Dusty's record against plus .500 teams...and playoff teams.

I have no doubt with another manager, 2011, and 2013 so far, would have been better years, and the 201-2012 playoff record would have been better than 2-6.
IMO, Championship caliber teams have a short shelf life. Dusty's 3 gaffes in the playoff losses last year cost the Reds one tick on that lifespan, as does his every other year working vacation where he typically is a lot more Dustyesc than in contract years. He'll always fall short unless he has the sheer luck to have hitters slug their way to overcome Dusty's ignorant moves, or they face an equally dim-bulb like Charlie Manuel in post season...and that isn't likely. Charlie's already ran out of lifespan with the Phillies. Dusty isn't the worst manager in MLB, but he's the worst among playoff contending teams, no contest.

 

[chico ruiz]

i didn't see the cozart bunt. i was watching wandy beat the mets. i saw liriano beat them again today. the pirates now have 3 lefty starters. was it an obvious sac bunt? was he bunting toward aramis ramirez? or, was he bunting toward first base? did he execute successfully? if so, that's a minor accomplishment in and of itself. regardless, it's fair game to second guess dusty on those in-game decisions. actually, it's the funnest part of being a baseball fan. when i'm at the yard, the more base runners in motion, the better. it's the most exciting part of the game to me. you can feel & hear the crowd hold it's collective breath when you're there. i'll take a well executed hit-n-run, stolen base, or sacrifice over a home run everytime. love those close plays at home, or any base for that matter. by the way, what's with the blow horns and fireworks for a home run in the bottom of the ninth when your down 15-0 and there's 2 outs? anyway, i like running because it puts pressure on the defense, opens up holes, and causes errors. makes the pitcher nervous and jumpy too. which brings me back to 1507's homer bailey assessment. that is actually the old book on bailey. in fact, up until about a year and a half ago, a big problem with bailey had been pitching out of the stretch - period. It wasn't just a matter of holding on runners, but mostly he became a much less effective pitcher from the stretch. he has worked hard to improve that part of his game and succeeded.