Current odds to win the NCAAB tourney

[SteelersPride]

Sports Betting News and Vegas Odds

MSU the favorite, followed by , UNC, kentucky........intriguing based on current rankings and bracketology

 

[Smart]

Those were updated February 22nd. They are interesting, but I imagine there has been some movement (Iowa, Providence, and Virginia seem to have iffy odds). I think Michigan State, Villanova, Virginia, and UNC are all good plays.

Yes, there has been some chaos and parity, but it is damn tough to win six straight games if you aren't the best. The gap between the top five teams is nothing like last year, but those four (along with Kansas and Oklahoma) are the best teams. I'm always skeptical about Kansas because Self's tactical dominance over the rest of the B12 tends to make them look better than they are in a tournament setting. I liked Oklahoma all year, but the non-Hield players really seem to have cooled down.

If I had to pick teams outside the top six, I like Iowa State (35-1), Purdue (35-1), Texas (35-1), and Wisconsin (50-1). You want a team that can adapt and win in an unfamiliar arena and atmosphere and player their game even when they are a bit nervous. Iowa State has such a diverse and efficient offense that (unlike last year) a bad game from Niang or any one player won't throw them off. Purdue is huge inside and that type of size doesn't disappear in tense situations. Texas plays such intense defense that they will thrive on opponent nerves. And that team is battle-tested, with the toughest schedule in America. As for Wisconsin, it's just based on how we are playing now. This has been a top 10 team for the past ten games and two of the starters have already been key contributors on Final Four teams.

 

[SteelersPride]

I'm with h in Iowa state

 

[Texas Jefe]

shit I'm biased, and no I don't think they will win it all, but I really like this Texas team. They are really reflecting the never say die persona of their coach.

 

[rmilia1]

Every year people fall in love with UVA thus time of year and every year I tell people they can't score it well enough to win a title. So let me reiterate. While they are better this year UVA can't score it well enough to win a title. In the tourney you HAVE to be able to outscore someone because invariably you are going to play a game where the other team is shooting it well. That fact automatically cuts about about 2/3 of the teams in the top 25 of those odds including Kentucky as well

 

[ericd7633]

Every year people fall in love with UVA thus time of year and every year I tell people they can't score it well enough to win a title. So let me reiterate. While they are better this year UVA can't score it well enough to win a title. In the tourney you HAVE to be able to outscore someone because invariably you are going to play a game where the other team is shooting it well. That fact automatically cuts about about 2/3 of the teams in the top 25 of those odds including Kentucky as well

Not this again. UVA was plenty good offensively last year, with their whole team in tact, they just weren't the same team when Justin Anderson got hurt(any team losing their best player is going to be worse off). Their offensive numbers this year are plenty good.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

If Virginia were ever to win/FF it would be this year.

As for Iowa State yeah they got talent to beat anyone.

But their depth, rebounding and defense is so fucking atrocious I can't see them getting that hot.

But it would be pretty damn cool for Niang.

 

[rmilia1]

Not this again. UVA was plenty good offensively last year, with their whole team in tact, they just weren't the same team when Justin Anderson got hurt(any team losing their best player is going to be worse off). Their offensive numbers this year are plenty good.

And I'll tell you the same thing I told you the last 2 years. I'm not speaking to efficiency numbers because efficiency numbers are based and predicated on pace of play. There will absolutely be one or 2 games in the tourney where any team is forced to play at a pace different than they want to. That means, especially for the slower paced teams, that you need to believe they can outscore someone. I have more faith in UVA this year than the last 2 but not enough to win a title. To maybe make an E8 or even a FF? SURE. To win it all? No.

 

[rmilia1]

I'm with Hockey on ISU but I'd give ISU a better shot yo win it all than UVA. We all know they tighten up officiating in the tourney and that favors teams with great guards and shooters. Big man play is less relevant in the tourney now unless you have a really solid backcourt.

 

[Smart]

Every year people fall in love with UVA thus time of year and every year I tell people they can't score it well enough to win a title. So let me reiterate. While they are better this year UVA can't score it well enough to win a title. In the tourney you HAVE to be able to outscore someone because invariably you are going to play a game where the other team is shooting it well. That fact automatically cuts about about 2/3 of the teams in the top 25 of those odds including Kentucky as well

They've only had two really good teams, and both of them ran into the team/coach which is literally the worst matchup in America.

And your premise that Virginia's offense isn't scoring a bunch per possession is just objectively wrong. They are #10 in adjusted offensive efficiency. If the other team is hot, they can match them. It's just that each team gets 60 possessions as opposed to 68.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

I'm with Hockey on ISU but I'd give ISU a better shot yo win it all than UVA. We all know they tighten up officiating in the tourney and that favors teams with great guards and shooters. Big man play is less relevant in the tourney now unless you have a really solid backcourt.

issue with that though is the tightened officiating leaves no depth exposed. And Morris is great but he plays 40 min lol.

I think they will have to get really favorable match ups. Virginia at least has a team that matches up well with anyone.

 

[ericd7633]

And I'll tell you the same thing I told you the last 2 years. I'm not speaking to efficiency numbers because efficiency numbers are based and predicated on pace of play. There will absolutely be one or 2 games in the tourney where any team is forced to play at a pace different than they want to. That means, especially for the slower paced teams, that you need to believe they can outscore someone. I have more faith in UVA this year than the last 2 but not enough to win a title. To maybe make an E8 or even a FF? SURE. To win it all? No.

UConn won the title two years ago averaging 72 ppg. UVA averages 71 this year. They can absolutely win the whole thing.

 

[rmilia1]

They've only had two really good teams, and both of them ran into the team/coach which is literally the worst matchup in America.

And your premise that Virginia's offense isn't scoring a bunch per possession is just objectively wrong. They are #10 in adjusted offensive efficiency. If the other team is hot, they can match them. It's just that each team gets 60 possessions as opposed to 68.

I didn't say they don't score enough per possession. I'm not speaking to efficiency at all. UVA had really good efficiency numbers the last 2 years as well. I'm speaking to a 1 game, win or go home tournament and whether you think a team can score enough in a gane where they give up 75-80 points to win that game on any kind of regular basis. It's the same argument I've had the last 2 years. I will say UVA is MORE equipped to win that game this year but just not enough for me to give them Mich if a shot to win it all

 

[rmilia1]

UConn won the title two years ago averaging 72 ppg. UVA averages 71 this year. They can absolutely win the whole thing.

UCONN got all kinds of luck to win that tourney AND they had a guy capable of putting a team on his back offensively for a run of 5 or 6 games. UVA does not imo. Now if UVA gets key injuries to opposing teams and a few come from behind type wins then sure anything is possible. I'm not saying there's NO shot. I'm saying I wouldn't have them in my top 16 to WIN IT ALL

 

[rmilia1]

issue with that though is the tightened officiating leaves no depth exposed. And Morris is great but he plays 40 min lol.

I think they will have to get really favorable match ups. Virginia at least has a team that matches up well with anyone.

If you're asking who I think goes further in the tourney it's UVA, if you're asking me who I think has a better shot yo WIN THE WHOLE THING it's ISU. I think people get caught up and don't realize the 2 aren't the same thing. On a side note my Seton Hall over Xavier pick is looking good lol

 

[mr.hockey4242]

If you're asking who I think goes further in the tourney it's UVA, if you're asking me who I think has a better shot yo WIN THE WHOLE THING it's ISU. I think people get caught up and don't realize the 2 aren't the same thing. On a side note my Seton Hall over Xavier pick is looking good lol

Isu doesn't have a roster capable of winning 6 in a row though. Two in 3 days is tough with their depth. Virginia is very well equipped for a final 4 run.

And Seton Hall is good. Playing bad RPI cupcakes weighs them down. They are a 6 seed talent at least.

 

[ericd7633]

I didn't say they don't score enough per possession. I'm not speaking to efficiency at all. UVA had really good efficiency numbers the last 2 years as well. I'm speaking to a 1 game, win or go home tournament and whether you think a team can score enough in a gane where they give up 75-80 points to win that game on any kind of regular basis. It's the same argument I've had the last 2 years. I will say UVA is MORE equipped to win that game this year but just not enough for me to give them Mich if a shot to win it all

UVA gave up 60 in their loss to MSU, with a healthy Anderson they win that game.

 

[rmilia1]

UVA gave up 60 in their loss to MSU, with a healthy Anderson they win that game.

Yep. I agree. They weren't going to win it all though and that's what this thread is about lol

 

[ericd7633]

UCONN got all kinds of luck to win that tourney AND they had a guy capable of putting a team on his back offensively for a run of 5 or 6 games. UVA does not imo. Now if UVA gets key injuries to opposing teams and a few come from behind type wins then sure anything is possible. I'm not saying there's NO shot. I'm saying I wouldn't have them in my top 16 to WIN IT ALL

Brogdon this year is capable of that. He's much better than last year.

 

[rmilia1]

Brogdon this year is capable of that. He's much better than last year.

Maybe. He's the one guy and why I saud I give them a better shot this year even if it's not much of a shot