Concerns up and down the lineup

[seahawksfan234]

This is something I mentioned in the offseason thread but I feel deserves it's own discussion.

Here is how I project the Mariners lineup under the assumption there will be no more new additions:

1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Dustin Ackley, LF
3. Robinson Cano, 2B
4. Nelson Cruz, DH
5. Kyle Seager, 3B
6. Logan Morrison, 1B
7. Justin Ruggiano/Brad Miller, RF
8. Mike Zunino, C
9. Brad Miller/Chris Taylor, SS

I don't know about you all, but the only part of that lineup that I have even the slightest modicum of confidence in is 3,4,5. Outside of that I believe that there are major concerns with every player in our lineup.

1. Austin Jackson, CF: Which Austin Jackson are the Mariners going to get this year? The guy who was an all around good runner, fielder and bat with the Tigers? Or the guy who hit .229/.267/.260 in his 50 games with the Mariners? From 2010 to 2013, Jackson finished every year with a WAR from 3.3-5.1, but in his 50 games with the Mariners it was 0.1. Jackson could either be a huge benefit to the Mariners this year, or he could be a serious problem in CF that may need to be addressed at the trade deadline.

2. Dustin Ackley, LF: Just like Logan Morrison, we seriously have to ask which Dustin Ackley are the Mariners going to get? Last year, people were optimistic about him because he hit .290/.360/.412 from July to September, yet he followed that up by hitting .214/.273/.329 in his first 74 games of 2014. He followed that up by hitting .274/.314/.463 with 10 HRs in his next 69 games, but who is to say he won't repeat the same dismal 2014 first half in 2015? Optimism going into 2014 was based on his impressive 2nd half in 2013, now we have optimism regarding his production going into 2015 based on his 2014 2nd half production. It wouldn't be out of the ordinary for him to sport a terrible line at the plate next year.

3. Robinson Cano, 2B: This is the position I have the most confidence in going into 2015. I actually believe that Robinson Cano may improve on the year he had in 2014. Despite having a great AVG/OBP for the Mariners, his power production was down significantly. I wouldn't be surprised if we see an improvement there from Cano. Even if we don't, he's still a great player.

4. Nelson Cruz, DH: Let me preface this by saying that I believe Cruz was a much needed addition. Is he going to hit like he did last year? I really doubt it. But 25-30 HRs and a .270 AVG and I'm happy, that alone would be a massive improvement at DH. Also, being DH'd will help keep him healthy, something he has struggled with.

5. Kyle Seager, 3B: My 2nd most comfortable position for the Mariners. Seager has steadily improved offensively and defensively over the last three years with the team. He's a fun player to watch.

6. Logan Morrison, 1B: Yikes. Logan Morrison is not a championship first basemen. Morrison is ridicuously streaky. He finished with a (by Mariners standards) respectable .260/.315/.420 line with 11 HR in 336 AB. Yet in his first 20 games he had a .164 BA, and had numerous 10+ game streaks in which he hit sub .200. You've got to have production from your starting first basemen, Morrison is a another serious question mark.

7. Justin Ruggiano/Brad Miller, RF: Mediocre.

8. Mike Zunino, C: It doesn't show up in the statsheet, but Zunino is a valuable player. Behind the plate he is great a pitch framing and is quietly one of the reasons why the Mariners pitchers had such a successful year in 2014. Our pitchers have been getting more called strikes with Zunino behind the plate. That being said, Zunino needs a shitload of work at the plate. His approach is abysmal. He has incredible strength and could someday be a 30+ HR hitter, but he's not going to do that with a .199 average. He also needs to work on getting on base more frequently, 17 walks in 131 games is reminicent of a former fat Cuban shortstop the Mariners used to have. He has only played 183 games in the major leagues, and played merely 96 games in the minor leagues, but he needs to improve offensively.

9. Brad Miller/Chris Taylor, SS: Who will start? Chris Taylor or Brad Miller? How will they perform? In 47 games Chris Taylor hit .287/.347/.346, but haven't we seen Nick Franklin, Dustin Ackley and Brad Miller start off strong only to taper off? This is another position the Mariners need to consider going into the year, which is why it is smart to consider Ian Desmond as there is no guarantee that the Mariners will have major league level production from this position in 2015.

Overall I think that the Mariners have added enough to push themselves into the 90 win range next year, but that is assuming that many of these pieces hold. Perhaps I'm just being nitpicky, but I think the Mariners have concerns at at least 5 positions going into 2015. The pitching staff is phenominal, and this lineup may be just mediocre enough to finally get them some wins, but that is assuming a number of these guys don't implode in 2015.

 

[SeattleCoug]

I don't know about you all, but the only part of that lineup that I have even the slightest modicum of confidence in is 3,4,5. Outside of that I believe that there are major concerns with every player in our lineup.

Unfortunately this is a true statement and is hard to argue otherwise.

Guys that I am bullish on are Jackson, Zunino and Miller.

-With Jackson, I feel like he has proven to be a solid player more often then not in his career. Unlike a guy like Ackley, he has somewhat of a resume to fall back on. Not saying he is an allstar but I think he will prove to be better then he was with the M's last year. I still dont think he is a leadoff hitter.
-Zunino I think should only improve. I bet he really works on how to handle that breaking ball. Plus his defense and pitch framing ability is supposedly really elite according to CY Young voters
-Miller I just see an it factor with him. I dont think his defense is as bad as people say.. I also think his plate approach really improved in the 2nd half. Just please dont move him to RF.

Im bearish on Lomo, Ackley, RF situation.

Lomo has never proven he can stay healthy more then a few months at a time. I feel like his 2 good months could be an aberration. I have no problem giving him a fair shot at winning the job but I would like to see some competition brought in so he can earn it. The kind of competition that Smoak never had to face.

I wont go to deep in Ackley but I just dont understand how a guy can preform for 2/6 months and just be handed a job every year. Maybe this is Smoak all over again but a year behind and this finally the last year, or maybe he shocks me. I just wish the outfield situation was normal and he could be a 4th OF and not the best or 2nd best option

RF-not worth discussing. Just add someone please

 

[NWinAZ]

Well said on both comments. Nothing to add, just as worried as the both of you on those subjects. I just don't understand how Jack can go half way to improvement each of the last two years and quit. It is like he is just doing the minimum required to keep his job and then calls it a day.....hard to believe because Jack is such a quality GM.

 

[wazzu31]

Well said on both comments. Nothing to add, just as worried as the both of you on those subjects. I just don't understand how Jack can go half way to improvement each of the last two years and quit. It is like he is just doing the minimum required to keep his job and then calls it a day.....hard to believe because Jack is such a quality GM.

This by 1000. Just like with Cano, he makes a big signing then touts it off as they are going for it, trying to build up support then does nothing afterwards to build upon the momentum. After Cruz signed there was a ton of buzz with Mariners fans. He has blue balled the Mariners fan base the past two years by starting to go for it then just stops.

 

[Msfann]

I feel exactly the same way as you guys. He made his butts in the seats move for the year and that's all they ever wanted to do. Cruz, just like Cano were investments to get people hyped into watching games more so than winning.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Well said on both comments. Nothing to add, just as worried as the both of you on those subjects. I just don't understand how Jack can go half way to improvement each of the last two years and quit. It is like he is just doing the minimum required to keep his job and then calls it a day.....hard to believe because Jack is such a quality GM.

I'm mostly frustrated with the Melky Cabrera thing. It seems as if the Mariners simply didn't want to give him that extra year, and he chose the White Sox. Had the Mariners given him that extra year, perhaps he would have come here.

 

[NWinAZ]

I'm mostly frustrated with only signing 4 real impactful free agents since 2002.

 

[SeattleCoug]

Im frustrated that having the bar set so low is acceptable.

It was acceptable to trot Smoak out at 1B for 4 years with no real competition of ever losing his job. Finally in year 4 they brought in someone who cant stay healthy but since he had 2 good months the job is his.

Now we are in year 4 with Ackley being handed a starting with no competition. But he had two good months so the job is his.

I dont even need see big $$$ being thrown around to make me happy. Just show me that mediocre isnt acceptable and bring some actual major league players to compete with the ones that havent shown you much.

 

[cezero]

I'm mostly frustrated with the Melky Cabrera thing. It seems as if the Mariners simply didn't want to give him that extra year, and he chose the White Sox. Had the Mariners given him that extra year, perhaps he would have come here.

i'm still waiting to find out the specifics of what Zintendo offered

 

[NWinAZ]

I dont even need see big $$$ being thrown around to make me happy. Just show me that mediocre isnt acceptable and bring some actual major league players to compete with the ones that havent shown you much.

I am not caring about big $$$ either, just impactful bats. There have been a number of bats over the last few years that would have improved us, making them an impact bat, that we didn't chase. I say to this day that 2001 was our best team because we spread the wealth and created a well balanced team w/o superstars. We have 2 superstars right now, but still should have the money to balance the rest of the roster out. We currently have 6 players for 2015 making more than the MLB average salary which is suppose to be around $4M.

 

[wazzu31]

I'm mostly frustrated with the Melky Cabrera thing. It seems as if the Mariners simply didn't want to give him that extra year, and he chose the White Sox. Had the Mariners given him that extra year, perhaps he would have come here.

I'm frustrating that they vocally hate Walker yet he is still penciled in the rotation, They have no faith in Ackley so acquire a guy to basically split time with him yet Ackley had value to the Braves and Jack still didn't get a RF. Jack spends dedicates his entire job around building the farm system yet doesn't have enough depth in the farm system to make a big splash. I swear Jack only has a job because everytime he talks he blames Bill Bavasi for Jack's poor performance.

 

[NWinAZ]

 

[NWinAZ]

Here is a good article from today explaining my concerns about this half-finished off season.

Things will go wrong, and the 2015 Mariners don't have enough dep | ChatMariners.com

 

[wazzu31]

Here is a good article from today explaining my concerns about this half-finished off season.

Things will go wrong, and the 2015 Mariners don't have enough dep | ChatMariners.com

I think all articles and blogs or whatever of that ilk are correct as far as the "potential" is. I don't think anyone can question that outside of RF all of the major flaws have potential like Jackson, Ackley, Morrison, Zunino and the SS platoon are all talented and have shown signs of even without moves that the Mariners could win the west.

My problem is with Ackley and Morrison I think they have potential but eventually they are who they are. Maybe just giving Morrison 1B may help him but I still can't see him being any other than just a streaky hitter.

Jackson is a WTF type player, there isn't anyway that a guy can just come here and completely bust like that, with all the guys who have comes to Seattle and just sucked he has been the worst (IMO over Figgins) He has to get better but generally guys who come here and hit the pit don't ever recover in Seattle.

Zunino, I'm actually fine with him hitting like crap if he keeps putting up his HR numbers. I'm more concerned with having an actual capable backup.

The staff is stacked with potential but injuries are a huge elephant in the room along with if shit hits the fans there isn't really a backup plan unless they decide to use the bullpen again.

Lloyd is another concern of mine, he is the baseball version of Mike Leach with his arrogance and immaturity of coaching and frustrates the crap out of me. His moves are either a midas touch or a lump of dog sh*t, I can't recall many of his moves last year that didn't work where I thought ok well I could see what he was trying there and it just didn't work.

 

[cezero]

Zunino, I'm actually fine with him hitting like crap if he keeps putting up his HR numbers. I'm more concerned with having an actual capable backup.

i agree with you about nothing most of the time

except this

he's going to go down as one of the top defensive catchers of the decade, and as soon as he gets to the same number of professional (minor and major league) at bats as the average position player, i truly believe he'll end up being a league average to above average hitter. oower is a hot commodity, and it's already there for this kid. in short, for a catcher, he's gold.

pretending jackson and figgins were the only disastrous signings is fucking stupid, though. in one year, Zintendo spent $20+ million on equally terrible turds. nobody remembers them because they're no longer with the organization.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Figgins was a disaster, but I'm not sure anyone would have logically expected he would suck so bad. He was an outstanding player for the Angels and the only legitimate concern that could have been brought up before bringing him in was his injury history. Obviously Figgins was a horrible signing, but at the time it didn't seem like a bad move at all. The guy was coming off of a 7.7 WAR season.

 

[NWinAZ]

That is why people should not use WAR as an indicator of who to sign or not sign. It is a stat like many others that shows past value and not future value.

 

[cezero]

Figgins was a disaster, but I'm not sure anyone would have logically expected he would suck so bad. He was an outstanding player for the Angels and the only legitimate concern that could have been brought up before bringing him in was his injury history. Obviously Figgins was a horrible signing, but at the time it didn't seem like a bad move at all. The guy was coming off of a 7.7 WAR season.

i thought it was a mediocre signing, and there were quite a few who thought the same on espn if i remember right. figgins's success was all as a leadoff hitter, and we already had one of the greatest of all time who made it clear he never wanted to be taken out of that spot in the lineup because he wanted to break records for base hits.

nobody could have exprected figgins to be the cancerous turd he became, but leadoff is a psychological thing. when he was put elsewhere in the order and struggled mightily, and he started whining to the press about his troubles saying "i'm a leadoff hitter", that's when we knew it was going to be pretty bad.

 

[NWinAZ]

Signing him wasn't as big of a mistake as not trading him the next season when people still thought he had value and Safeco was the reason for his drop. After the second season, you couldn't give him away.

 

[StanMarsh51]

Figgins was a disaster, but I'm not sure anyone would have logically expected he would suck so bad. He was an outstanding player for the Angels and the only legitimate concern that could have been brought up before bringing him in was his injury history. Obviously Figgins was a horrible signing, but at the time it didn't seem like a bad move at all. The guy was coming off of a 7.7 WAR season.

His age alone (32 when played his first game with the Mariners) should've been a red flag....like most sluggers, speedsters tend to age poorly in their 30s, and the only one I can think of that aged well in recent history was Ichiro. Crawford and Bourn were probably the latest notable examples of speedsters going downhill quickly, and Jose Reyes could be next given his his last 2 years have gone.