College Football Playoff Talk

[nogicat]

To begin, how are you guys? I have not been on here in a while because I really just miss the live feed chat we used to have and I have gotten way busier.

Second, isn't it great to be Pac 12 South Champions?!?! What a great game yesterday and I am really proud of the direction our program is going.

Well I am sure the thought has now crept into your minds but we have an outside shot at the College Football Playoff.
I firmly believe that the champion of the clear second best conference in the nation should have a spot in the CFP. However, thats not up to me to decide. It is up to a panel that watches games being laced with the SEC agenda money hungry ESPN is trying to push.

Alright on to some hypotheticals because we all know that is fun.

#8 UCLA and #9 Georgia have lost today meaning at worst we should be #9 next week. Time for some hypotheticals that can hopefully move us up the ladder. (Each hypothetical assumes we beat Oregon this Friday, which in itself will be incredibly tough, but I like to have fun)

Now, if we beat the Ducks, they will be eliminated from playoff Contention. I am also going to assume FSU and Bama win out to take #1 and #2 spots.

Lets start by comparing #10 Michigan St to the Cats.
Assuming MSU wins over Penn St and finishes with two losses they still will not be playing for a conference championship.
I think that you can argue that Arizona can jump them this week even, considering Arizona now has 3 wins over current top 25 teams and playing for a Conf. Title while MSU has 0 and isn't. Even if that jump doesn't happen today, it will happen if the Cats beat the Ducks this Friday. (Giving them 4 Top 25 wins)

I will follow with a comparison to #6 Ohio St. OSU will play for a conference title next week against Wisconsin or Minnesota. If OSU were to win their resume would include 3 wins over current Top 25 teams a horrible loss at home to unranked Virginia Tech. They would be Big 10 champs. Arizona's resume would include 4 wins over current Top 25 teams and 2 losses (1 to unranked USC). They would be Pac-12 Champs. If they lose they would be jumped by Arizona. The Wisconsin/Minnesota winner would be too far back to catch the Cats. Considering OSU just lost Barrett this there is a solid chance they could fall next week, especially if the team they face is Wisconsin.

Next up is #4 Mississippi St. Their game with Ole Miss is ongoing but I really think they are going to lose. If they win SEC bias will prevail and they will take one of those final four spots. Now if they lose, Mississippi State will finish with a single win over a current top 25 team, two losses, and didn't play for their conference title. Arizona's resume would include 4 wins over current Top 25 teams and 2 losses (1 to unranked USC). They would be Pac-12 Champs. Nothing other than a blatant SEC bias can stop Arizona from jumping Mississippi State.

Next up is #7 Baylor. Lets say Baylor wins out and is a one loss team. They would be Big 12 Champions. (I also think a win over #12 KSU will be enough for them to jump TCU who they beat head to head). I will throw #5 TCU in this mix too, because they will finish with 1 loss.

Baylor's resume would include 3 wins over current Top 25 teams and 1 loss to unranked WVU. They would be Big 12 conference Champs.
TCU's resume would include 2 wins over current Top 25 teams and 1 loss to Baylor head to head.
Arizona's resume would include 4 wins over current Top 25 teams and 2 losses (1 to unranked USC). They would be Pac-12 Champs.

This logjam is interesting. If Arizona wins I don't see how the committee can take both TCU and Baylor over them even if both win out. They have to drop one team especially since they are in the same conference (probably TCU).

So if everyone takes care of business I am thinking the Final Four would be Bama, FSU, Mississippi St, and Ohio St/Baylor with the Cats barely missing it. But I think they would still strongly be considered.

This really isn't as unrealistic as it seems. If Arizona wins and MSU and OSU lose, I think its a done deal and the Cats are in. With the Big 12 winner taking the other spot. Thats the easiest scenario.

In my honest opinion if you win this conference you should be in the playoff but the bias is too strong and the Cats don't necessarily have the national reputation to help them out.
However, the committee seems to like the Pac-12 and has been ranking us favorably. Also I am assuming the committee will really value the final value of opponents on teams schedules rather than how they were ranked at the time they played that team. So far, the committee hasn't been crystal clear on what they look for either so hell knows.

So kick back Go Ole Miss, Go Wisconsin/Minnesota next week, and lets beat Oregon next week.

Either way happy we have gotten here and at worst I think we are Fiesta Bowl Bound. Hope this didn't mindfuck anyone hahaha

 

[johnson]

Good breakdown. I've been perplexed for weeks seeing Michigan State ahead of Arizona. They are from a wack conference and lost to Oregon. Should be a no-brainer.

 

[sunsguns]

The Big Game for us, outside of our game vs Oregon of course, is the Baylor-Kansas State game. This is why: Ohio State ain't gonna beat Wisconsin with its 3rd string QB and we'll blow right by Michigan State if we beat #2 Oregon.

IF Zona beats Oregon and K-State upsets Baylor:

1. Bama
2. FSU
3. TCU
4. ARIZONA

 

[BearDownUA]

The Big Game for us, outside of our game vs Oregon of course, is the Baylor-Kansas State game. This is why: Ohio State ain't gonna beat Wisconsin with its 3rd string QB and we'll blow right by Michigan State if we beat #2 Oregon.

IF Zona beats Oregon and K-State upsets Baylor:

1. Bama
2. FSU
3. TCU
4. ARIZONA

I think either way the Baylor game goes, they aren't taking two big12 teams. With MSU and Barrett going down yesterday, I truly believe we control our own destiny. Beat Oregon & take the Pac12 title and we're in. Tall order but definitely possible

Just so ecstatic to even be in the picture still

 

[johnson]

It would be an injustice not to have a PAC 12 representative in the CFP. They've felt Oregon was deserving (they are) up to this point, so the only team that beat them twice would be a perfect replacement

 

[CatsTopPac]

NOOOGIIIIIIII

What up man, haven't heard from ya in ages man, hope all is well! I haven't been on here much at all either unfortunately.

Honestly though guys, and I'm just trying to be a realist, I don't think we can get in. I'm going to have to wait until the dust settles on all of this. On one hand, if absolutely everyone in front of us loses, then we leap a lot and maybe we're in. On the other hand, there are teams who would have legit gripes by only losing to top ten teams. That USC game fucked us so badly.

 

[The Derski]

This whole site will go crazy if we snag a final 4 spot in the last week of the season without even being on the radar from the get go.

 

[johnson]

One poll out and has Michigan State inexplicably ahead of AZ. Under what theory?

AZ has wins against the current #3, #17, and #24 team in that poll. Mich State's best win is against #25 Nebraska. And as we all know, AZ crushed Oregon and Oregon crushed Mich State. Just pathetic.

 

[azchamps]

If ARIZONA beats Oregon and are not in the playoffs I will say ef to the committee. Heck I might quit watching....uh.....nah....but I will say ef to the committee.
Got to win first though.

GO CATS! BEAR DOWN!

 

[CatsTopPac]

One poll out and has Michigan State inexplicably ahead of AZ. Under what theory?

AZ has wins against the current #3, #17, and #24 team in that poll. Mich State's best win is against #25 Nebraska. And as we all know, AZ crushed Oregon and Oregon crushed Mich State. Just pathetic.

They are ahead in all of the polls. But only 21, 84, and 5 points ahead, respectively. That's nothing. The other thing you have to compare though (in addition to AZ's better wins) are Mich St.'s losses versus our losses. Both of their losses are against top 5 teams. Our losses are against UCLA at 16 and USC who is just out of the rankings. It's pretty close to a wash, imo. Besides, if we beat Oregon we would leap them, anyway, because they don't have another game. I'm more worried about the teams that still have a game.

 

[sunsguns]

Zona ahead of Michigan State in the only poll that counts: the CFB poll.

1. BAMA
2. OREGON
3. TCU
4. FSU
5. OHIO STATE
6. BAYLOR
7. ARIZONA
8. MICHIGAN STATE
9. KANSAS STATE
10. MISSISSIPPI STATE

.............. Cats very much in the running for the #4 playoff spot !

 

[Arizona_Sting]

What's up Nogi! Glad to see you back in here. #Big3

 

[Arizona_Sting]

The playoffs are very much a possibility with a win over Oregon. I think tOSU drops their CGC and we take Oregon's spot in that instance. That's my hope at least IF we win.

The #4 seed is riiiight there. A win and we're in if one of FSU/tOSU loses.

 

[johnson]

The Big Ten is borderline a mid-major conference. Ohio State should not be ahead of us.

 

[BearDownUA]

Bear Down Zona, lets go Badgers, poser Wildcats, and Yellow Jackets!

I still think win and we're in regardless of what else in the county happens. Living in the midwest I've argued this with mulitple people, and at the end of the day I can get 9/10 people to agree based on the TCU/Baylor situation, OSU being on QB#3 and Big10 vs Pac12, and the committee showing its not black/white with wins and losses by how they have handled FSU, BUT if Wiconsin, Kstate, or Gtech could win that would be just gravy for our case.

Just take care of business of Friday boys (one can dream can't they?)

 

[Wildcat Fury]

I think that it is evident that the committee is trying to guarantee a PAC team in. They had UCLA at 8 this weekend, and asu at 7(?) a couple weeks ago. The committee is doing their best to get a PAC team in, which a PAC team definitely deserves to be in, since the PAC is the hardest conference. Bear Down

 

[johnson]

You know who isn't in the CFP discussion? ASU. Just a reminder.

 

[Arizona_Sting]

I really hope FSU loses. Not just for our benefit, but because they gotten sooo lucky all year and have had such an easy schedule. I would love for them to drop out.

 

[WhoDatDevil]

I really wanted to reach out to you guys and say congratulations. The job Greg Byrne has done with your athletic program is second to none. He's someone has the right disposition, work ethic, and most importantly education to get the job done. As with most young rising stars, you probably won't have him forever. So please, enjoy it every second you can. As a token of appreciation, you can always bring him a fresh coffee, he likes them hot.