Can we officially take my Hawks off the bubble now please?

[rmilia1]

And mark them down as in? Thanks

 

[ralphiewvu]

Absolutely, now we can say sPitt isn't in. I think everyone wins then.

 

[ericd7633]

Looks like they'll be an 8/9 seed.

 

[saspursfan]

They gotta beat someone better than IU. Only way they get in is by winning the B1G tourney (obviously) or by having an impressive showing in the B1G tourney.

 

[rmilia1]

You think eric? I'd think they are more like a 7 right now with a shot to maybe even get a 5 or 6 if they beat nw and win 1 or 2 in the b10 tourney. Rpi is all the way up to 36 now

 

[saspursfan]

Absolutely, now we can say sPitt isn't in. I think everyone wins then.

Pitt should just voluntarily end their season in Mid-March. Their NCAA tournament history is the biggest running joke in college basketball.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

You think eric? I'd think they are more like a 7 right now with a shot to maybe even get a 5 or 6 if they beat nw and win 1 or 2 in the b10 tourney. Rpi is all the way up to 36 now

No way are they getting a 5 or even 6 barring huge run in Big10 with a Wisco win.

Big10 is too poor. Northwestern will only hurt seeding not help.

 

[wingsauce7]

I can see a 6, but not a 5 probably a 7. Iowa has got it rolling pretty well right now.

 

[rmilia1]

I don't know man. I guess we will see. I have them slotted at a 7 now and so do many bracketologies. For sure a win over nw won't help but a win in the quarters will and that could get them a 6 depending on how other teams fare. A 5 isn't happening without a win over Wisconsin or maryland in the semis. Iowa has the 3rd best resume in the b10 and if they don't suffer a bad loss and get 1 more quality win then 6 or 7 is for sure I think. Just way too many good wins, way too many road wins in comparison with other teams to be any worse than that

 

[ericd7633]

You think eric? I'd think they are more like a 7 right now with a shot to maybe even get a 5 or 6 if they beat nw and win 1 or 2 in the b10 tourney. Rpi is all the way up to 36 now

I'd have them on the 8 line as of now. Beating NW won't do anything for them. Also depending on their seed winning 1 in the Big 10 tournament won't do much for them either. And 36 RPI is not all that great.

 

[rmilia1]

I'm assuming a top 4 seed. Either way they'd have to win a quarterfinal. Probably the closest resume overall to Iowa is Butler so I looked at where they were on my s curve and extrapolated likely outcomes.

 

[rmilia1]

Top 4 in b10 tourney to clarify

 

[ericd7633]

I'm assuming a top 4 seed. Either way they'd have to win a quarterfinal. Probably the closest resume overall to Iowa is Butler so I looked at where they were on my s curve and extrapolated likely outcomes.

I'd assume a 4 as well but there's a chance they could be the 5 albeit slim. And Butler has a better resume at this point IMO.

 

[jontaejones]

I'd say

I'm assuming a top 4 seed. Either way they'd have to win a quarterfinal. Probably the closest resume overall to Iowa is Butler so I looked at where they were on my s curve and extrapolated likely outcomes.

The resumes are actually quite similar on inspection. If anything, I would say the are both 7 seeds.

Since I am familiar with both teams having seen them both play multiple times, here is my take:

Butler gets the most out of it's talent and is supremely coached. Their defense is cohesive and they play for each other.

Iowa reminds me of Iowa from last year. They are inconsistent, can beat a powerful team, but lose to bad teams. Luckily for Iowa, they won't face any bad teams in the NCAA.

Also remember Butler is without one of it's key players. I don't know about Iowa.

 

[rmilia1]

Eh IF Butlers resume is better it is by a scant scnat amount and most brackeologies have them at a 6.

 

[rmilia1]

Iowa gets a rap of inconsistency and I know alot of that is due to their collapse last year but Iowa has actually been relatively consistent this year in my opinion. The loss to NW was a bad one but NW has won 5 of their last 6 and is playing much better. The only loss I take umbrage with is the loss at home to Minnesota really. Other than that I think Iowa has beaten the teams they were supposed to, a few they werent supposed to and performed quite well. Once you get down to the 5/6/7 lines most of the teams you are comparing have at least 1 bad loss so Im not sure you can penalize a team for that too much. Iowa on the other hand has 7 true road wins and some truly quality wins including a few on the road/ To me thats the separater, road wins. Tourney games arent played on your home floor so I want to see what a team does away from home. Thats just me though

 

[jontaejones]

Eh IF Butlers resume is better it is by a scant scnat amount and most brackeologies have them at a 6.

In an RPI sense, Iowa has more bad losses and they have come later in the year.

Butler's bad losses came very early and they have beaten up on the bottom of the Big East since then.

 

[rmilia1]

I guess it depends on how the committee looks at a bad loss. Generally speaking I think they usually look at losses to sub 100 RPI teams in which case both Butler and Iowa only have one bad loss. Your point is valid on Iowas coming later but Iowa has also won 5 ( soon to be 6 ) in a row so not sure how strongly the committee loks at recent trends anymore but Iowa is trending the right way. Thats why I think a win in the regular season finale and a win or 2 in the B10 tourney could net them as high as a 5 seed ( depending on if they get a win over Maryland or Wisconsin in the B10 tourney )

 

[ericd7633]

Iowa gets a rap of inconsistency and I know alot of that is due to their collapse last year but Iowa has actually been relatively consistent this year in my opinion. The loss to NW was a bad one but NW has won 5 of their last 6 and is playing much better. The only loss I take umbrage with is the loss at home to Minnesota really. Other than that I think Iowa has beaten the teams they were supposed to, a few they werent supposed to and performed quite well. Once you get down to the 5/6/7 lines most of the teams you are comparing have at least 1 bad loss so Im not sure you can penalize a team for that too much. Iowa on the other hand has 7 true road wins and some truly quality wins including a few on the road/ To me thats the separater, road wins. Tourney games arent played on your home floor so I want to see what a team does away from home. Thats just me though

The Minnesota loss hurts Iowa's resume more than the NW lost did IMO. Losing on the road to a team barely outside the top 100, doesn't hurt as much. And a lot teams will have that on the resume. Providence, San Diego State, Butler, Colorado State, Dayton, Boise State, Michigan State, all have losses outside the top 100, some even multiple and some to teams in the 200's. For whatever reason, those losses are more forgivable, in terms of the committee's eyes and in the RPI. Losing at home to a team in the 80's of RPI(Minnesota) isn't as forgivable.

Also, history isn't on Iowa's side in terms of getting a top 6 seed(unless they win the B1G tournament) because double digit loss teams not from a top 3 conference historically have been given 7 seeds or worse by the committee. The Big 12 and Big East is going to lay claim on a bunch of 3-6 seed lines IMO. You have Iowa State, Oklahoma, Baylor, West Virginia as an example. Just look at OU, they have 9 losses already but are pretty safely on the 4 line. In the Big East you have similar teams like Butler, Georgetown, Providence and I'll even throw St. John's into that mix as well, although they are more on the 7/8 line right now. Even a 12 loss Xavier is on the 9/10 line right and in no real danger of falling out if they take care of their last game of the year.

I would agree though, that Iowa IMO does also have the B1G's 3rd best resume at this point.

 

[jontaejones]

Iowa gets a rap of inconsistency and I know alot of that is due to their collapse last year but Iowa has actually been relatively consistent this year in my opinion. The loss to NW was a bad one but NW has won 5 of their last 6 and is playing much better. The only loss I take umbrage with is the loss at home to Minnesota really. Other than that I think Iowa has beaten the teams they were supposed to, a few they werent supposed to and performed quite well. Once you get down to the 5/6/7 lines most of the teams you are comparing have at least 1 bad loss so Im not sure you can penalize a team for that too much. Iowa on the other hand has 7 true road wins and some truly quality wins including a few on the road/ To me thats the separater, road wins. Tourney games arent played on your home floor so I want to see what a team does away from home. Thats just me though

I think a tourney run is possible depending on the draw. A 6 seed would be ideal. That's a really nice seed. You could draw a weak 3 and it's on from there.

Iowa really needs to at least win a game this year to help with their recruiting. A sweet 16 run would be nice.