Buster Olney's WS Prediction: PIRATES vs MARINERS

[gowazzu02]

Any of you guys into the advanced stats. Im not really cause I don't understand them.... but WAR wins above replacement is sort of straight forward, even though I have no clue how they calculate it...

Cruz's WAR was 3.7
Morales WAR was negative 1.8.

Sooooo ipso facto we should be 5.5 games better then last year? Thats how that stat works right?

 

[cezero]

I suspect that our entire WAR for DH over last season was actually lower than -1.8...i think it was closer to -2.5...just going by memory here from something i read a couple months back.

Ostensibly, yeah, your calculation is what WAR is supposed to indicate.

It's controversial, obviously. I think WAR is more useful as a predictor for position players than for pitchers and DH's since a key difference between it and other stats is its use of defense in the calculations. I also think WAR is better as a comparative tool between players at specific positions than it is at trying to use it to say X Team will be X number of games better with the player. Just IMO. Nothing to back it up. lol.

Here are a couple of viewpoints on it:

Bob Ryan declares war on WAR - Sports - The Boston Globe

Call for moderation on use of Wins Above Replacement stat - ESPN

 

[Rock Strongo]

olneys from VT.

some awesome weed up there...just sayin.

 

[gowazzu02]

olneys from VT.

some awesome weed up there...just sayin.

Is this Spring training 2014 and are you on the KC Royals board?

 

[Rock Strongo]

Is this Spring training 2014 and are you on the KC Royals board?

no, its 2015 unless youve been comatose for a bit...and no.

 

[cezero]

boston "fans" pretty much categorically know nothing about their own team prior to 2004, and their knowledge of MLB in general prior to then declines precipitously.

 

[gowazzu02]

no, its 2015 unless youve been comatose for a bit...and no.

I was making a point that you never know what the hell will happen in baseball. Yeah if you out spend teams like the dodgers, yanks, sawx you will have fewer down years....less lengthy bad times. but once you get to the playoffs its anyones ballgame, just like the kansas city royals made a run to the WS last year,

 

[Rock Strongo]

I was making a point that you never know what the hell will happen in baseball. Yeah if you out spend teams like the dodgers, yanks, sawx you will have fewer down years....less lengthy bad times. but once you get to the playoffs its anyones ballgame, just like the kansas city royals made a run to the WS last year,

the royals wont repeat that. low scoring, pen heavy team.

lightning, meet bottle.

 

[SeattleCoug]

I laugh at all these W.S. predictions. I still don't see us as much improved. Maybe the rest of the field took a step back. If that is the case, then I guess it is possible. I would rather us being the underdog.

I kind of think that's the case. The NL has some good looking teams like the Nats, Cardinals, Dodgers. The AL however looks like it could be even weaker then it was last year. I don't see any single team that really blows me away. I went on record saying the M's blew an opportunity last year because of the weaknesses around the AL. I still feel that way but it wouldn't shock be if a Wild Card team was in the high 80's for win total again.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Hmm I dunno about WS. Seattle's pitching staff is strong, but the hitting outside of the 3-4-5 lineup is extremely unproven....

If Ackley (lol.. can barely even type it) can somehow get up around .280+ and Zunino lowers his HR but gets to .250 MAYBE, but it's a stretch. Seattle would need some out of nowhere seasons at the bat level. If Ackley/Zunino/Taylor combined for somewhere around .270 then I could see the Ms going somewhere, but that's a HUGE stretch. That is of course combined with the usual production (if not slightly better) from Cano/Seagar/Cruz and all the pitching lol.

 

[wazzu31]

You're basing their success or lack there of this season on payroll?

Payroll is a huge part of their lack of success IMO, not just player payroll but where they spend their money throughout the entire organization. But my question was more of what he done that is so different than Armstrong?

 

[cezero]

not taking any sides in this, but as of now, the m's have the #11 payroll for 2015. i made a crack about us never cracking the top 10 again, but i guess i was wrong. glad of it, too.

 

[DunceKaep]

1B, Morrison, is my biggest concern.
Pitching, we have plenty, we are ok, just question the Tom W faith, he is often very shaky.
Pitching again, Smith, Olsen, Rollins, IMO, may let Furbush go, are these options better? Yes!!!!

2B, SS, 3B, C, CF, RF platoon, LF Platoon, I agree with Lloyd.

Bench option, I hope WillieB is NOT the choice, we shall see.

DJ Peterson, prove yourself and move to 1B. My long term solution.

 

[DunceKaep]

With idiota like mcclendon, jack z and lincoln at the helm, its a safe bet that the mariners will never sniff the world series.

 

[phredmojo]

Lets avatar bet on it.

 

[Cloud]

These predictions are usually based on the assumption that teams stays healthy all season. We know that ain't gonna happen. Predictions are also just fun and games... even for these "experts." Don't take it to heart ya'll.

I believe the M's will do fine this season, but we'll have to see how the season play out. Being a die-hard fan, I just don't want to get my hopes up too much because it's been crushed many times before in the past.

 

[cezero]

1B, RF, and SS are all big concerns, both defensively and offensively.

- Morrison has never come close to playing a full season of baseball...hasn't even broken 100 games in the past 4 years. Never had a positive dWAR in any of his partial seasons, either.
- Nobody knows how the bargain bin platoon right field will do.
- Miller can't hit or field.

We think we know for sure that we have very solid defense at 2B, 3B, C, and CF.

Offensively, we got a much better DH. That's all.

 

[Cloud]

Miller will most likely start at SS due to Taylor's injury, but when he comes back, I hope he gets the position. While his offense may not be any better than Miller, I think his defense is a little more superior. I'd pick Taylor over Miller any day, it's still a weak point for us in the infield, but you can hope that Taylor improves and progress better than Miller.

RF - I don't even want to think about it. ugh.

 

[PolarVortex]

I think you're crazy to think that the only thing "On Paper" they've done to improve the team from last year was adding Nelson Cruz... The team is stronger on both sides of the plate... SP is much deeper than what the team started w/ last year as well...

How much did the team improve on offense just by adding 1 bat in R. Cano last year? Quite a bit actually... Adding just 1 high quality bat can do wonders for an entire lineup, which we saw last year... Adding Cruz is not just adding another bat but he will also allow others in the lineup greater opportunities to succeed and get better as well... For example, Cano will see many more fastball's because of Cruz's presence... It's common knowledge...


Starting lineup in the field last year 2014 (2015):

1. A. Almonte (A. Jackson)
   
2. B. Miller (B. Miller)
   
3. R. Cano (R. Cano
   
4. J. Smoak (N. Cruz)
   
5. L. Morrison (L. Morrison)
   
6. K. Seager (K. Seager)
   
7. M. Saunders/Romero (S. Smith/Ruggiano)
   
8. Ackley/Hart (Ackley/Weeks)
   
9. Zunino (Zunino)

QUOTE]

The Mariners scored 624 runs in 2013. They 634 in 2014. I wouldn't call 10 molre runs 'quite a bit'. Sorry. That is about on extra run every 16 games. The Mariners didn't improve because of the offense last year. They improved because the pitching staff gave up 200 runs less in 2014 than they did in 2013. 200 less. That is not an exaggeration, it's a fact.

The lineup has improved in only one place: DH. Centerfield might improve, depending on whether we get the 2012 version off AJax or the 2014 version.

I like the Mariners being underdogs. Way too many national wporrtswriters are pinkhatting them this year.

 

[PolarVortex]

I think you're crazy to think that the only thing "On Paper" they've done to improve the team from last year was adding Nelson Cruz... The team is stronger on both sides of the plate... SP is much deeper than what the team started w/ last year as well...

How much did the team improve on offense just by adding 1 bat in R. Cano last year? Quite a bit actually... Adding just 1 high quality bat can do wonders for an entire lineup, which we saw last year... Adding Cruz is not just adding another bat but he will also allow others in the lineup greater opportunities to succeed and get better as well... For example, Cano will see many more fastball's because of Cruz's presence... It's common knowledge...

QUOTE]

The offense did not improve 'quite a bit actually'. They scored 634 runs in 2014. In 2013 they sccored 624 runs. 10 runs in 162 is not a significant improvement.

The mariners success last year was due to the fact that their pitching staff gave up 200 runs fewer than it did in 2013. I wouldn't expect that to happen again. The offense has to pull their weight this year.

And fuckk Buster Olney. i hate it when the Mariners/Seahawks are not underdogs when by all rights they should be.