A Box of Chocolates

[MHSL82]

The Jazz or like a box of chocolates, you never know what you’re going to get. You never know you’re going to beat the Rockets or lose to the Celtics. I think we’re likely to get swept by the Celtics (only two games), but the point is that we would have no idea what’s going to happen.

 

[nuraman00]

If I thought the Jazz were better on defense, I might predict some wins against the Celtics.

 

[MHSL82]

 

[nuraman00]

What order are those games listed in? Do I read left to right, top to bottom?

 

[MHSL82]

What order are those games listed in? Do I read left to right, top to bottom?

On the left, it has all our wins in order of record with minor exceptions. For example, I thought that the win over in New Orleans in New Orleans was bigger than the one now because of location. I understand that the second one is probably bigger because both teams have adjusted to each other, and we still won. But whatever. Then I put the Memphis game that we won with Morant playing above the one that he did not play.

The right side has all our losses in reverse order so for a rationalization, best win cancels out the worst loss. it doesn’t cancel it out or what type of team we are, I’m just talking about record. I do want to record reflect what kind of team we are all the hairline cracks. And I know/understand that if we lose to the Orlando Magic or Detroit Pistons, we are that team. That was us losing. But I kind of imagine that we would beat them in a seven game series so therefore we are better than they are. Therefore, I want that to be a win. New Orleans would beat us so record wise, using that to cancel out, the Detroit loss, is OK with me. I did this short exercise just to see how it matched up on whether we had many more success is the disappointment. I think so.

Still, I think we would’ve won 2 to 4 more games if Conley never got hurt, and that includes one game that he played in as a back up. same goes with Markkanen missing a few games. I know every team does that so I’m not talking about our record compared to other peoples record, I’m only talking about our record. They can do the same thing if they have someone so inclined to compile.

 

[MHSL82]

This is how I view it: the darkest color above on the left, and below on the right, are the teams that are clearly better than we are. The second color below that are teams that are better than we are, but not a big surprise that we can meet them. The next color are teams that I have in the same tier at the time we played them. For example, Golden State could takeoff, and therefore they would be belonging to a higher tier. The last one are the teams that we should beat. If we didn’t beat them, it could’ve been from under performance or injury, but either way we didn’t.

So we are 5–2 against teams that are clearly better than we are and 4–4 with teams that are better but aren’t as good as the above group. We are 4–4 against teams that we are similar to. We are 3–4 against teams that we are better than.

So you could combine the ones that we beat played the better team and the games that we played the worst team and we are 8–6. We have not played Milwaukee or the Celtics yet and those are teams that should beat us as well.

If we can start beating teams we “should” beat 6-2 and going 5-3 against teams we are similar to and 2-6 in surprises, we‘ll be in good shape.

 

[MHSL82]

 

[MHSL82]

 

[MHSL82]

All close losses or were wins:

 

[nuraman00]

Dud:

Pistons vs Jazz, November 23, 2022 | Basketball-Reference.com

DET (125) vs UTA (116). Get the box score, shot charts and play by play summary of the Pistons vs Jazz, November 23, 2022.

www.basketball-reference.com

Dud:

Bulls vs Jazz, November 28, 2022 | Basketball-Reference.com

CHI (114) vs UTA (107). Get the box score, shot charts and play by play summary of the Bulls vs Jazz, November 28, 2022.

www.basketball-reference.com

There hasn't been a dud win yet. At some point, there will probably be one.

 

[nuraman00]

A Denver loss should not be dark red. It should be the middle tier.

 

[nuraman00]

An Indiana win should be higher than the middle tier.

 

[MHSL82]

Dud:

Pistons vs Jazz, November 23, 2022 | Basketball-Reference.com

DET (125) vs UTA (116). Get the box score, shot charts and play by play summary of the Pistons vs Jazz, November 23, 2022.

www.basketball-reference.com

Dud:

Bulls vs Jazz, November 28, 2022 | Basketball-Reference.com

CHI (114) vs UTA (107). Get the box score, shot charts and play by play summary of the Bulls vs Jazz, November 28, 2022.

www.basketball-reference.com

There hasn't been a dud win yet. At some point, there will probably be one.

The commentator who said that there hasn’t been a dud game means that there hasn’t been a blowout. I think he’s talking in the context of Jazz not being an elite team. As you’ve told me many times, every team can lose to any team. I know that doesn’t mean it isn’t a dud to lose to them, but we aren’t good enough to never lose. I guess people expected us to give up in some games and we don’t give up in those games and that’s his definition. I believe last year, there were a couple dud games even against teams that are better then the Pistons or Bulls.

 

[MHSL82]

A Denver loss should not be dark red. It should be the middle tier.

Record wise, they are the best team that we have lost to. I think if you ask around, most people would say that that they are clearly better than we are.

An Indiana win should be higher than the middle tier.

About two weeks ago they were. And they might’ve been at the time that we played them. I put Indiana on top of that tier. So far based upon the teams that we have beaten, they’re in the same tier as we are. If we start disappointing and losing then it switches.

My chart is fluid because it might change. For example, Golden State may make a run, and therefore they may be better than they are. I put the teams in roughly equal categories, but made exceptions for when it was clear that one group was bigger than the other. Two of the groups are better than the Jazz are and only one group is worse.

 

[MHSL82]

Well, we finally had a dud. This was without Giannis playing.

Bucks 123-97 Jazz (Dec 17, 2022) Box Score - ESPN

Box score for the Milwaukee Bucks vs. Utah Jazz NBA game from December 17, 2022 on ESPN. Includes all points, rebounds and steals stats.

www.espn.com

 

[MHSL82]

The commentator who said that there hasn’t been a dud game means that there hasn’t been a blowout. I think he’s talking in the context of Jazz not being an elite team. As you’ve told me many times, every team can lose to any team. I know that doesn’t mean it isn’t a dud to lose to them, but we aren’t good enough to never lose. I guess people expected us to give up in some games and we don’t give up in those games and that’s his definition. I believe last year, there were a couple dud games even against teams that are better then the Pistons or Bulls.

 

[MHSL82]

Well, 2:18 was bad, but it was a longer time of badness:

 

[nuraman00]

. I think if you ask around, most people would say that that they are clearly better than we are.

It's blurry.

 

[MHSL82]

It's blurry.

Well, you got your wish. Now the Cleveland and Milwaukee losses will be to the two teams that have the best record that are clearly better than we are.

 

[nuraman00]

If Michael Porter Jr. were playing, then Denver might be better than Utah. But because he's missed most of the season, Denver isn't better