2018 NBA offseason

[DJ]

3 seems like a very optimistic outcome.

True.

 

[WiggyRuss]

He got a one year deal. At some point you are going to accept that giving players one year deals instead of multi-year deals increase their cost. IF the Sixers signed him to a 3 year deal, he would not be getting $12 million a year.

Just as KCP isn't worth $12 million a year but if you want him on a 1 year deal you need to pay a premium.

Kemba might get 30+ a year. I really don't know. But that's probably not a path to winning for a team. Except maybe a team like the Lakers who are looking for a star and don't really have a quality perimeter shooting guard.

Westbrook is making 41M a year. Wall is making 42M a year on his deal. Curry is making 40M a year on his deal. Anthony Davis will be eligible and receive a 5 year 230 million dollar extension after this season as DVPE (Designated Player) contract that will average out to 46M a year. Harden at 39M a year on his new extension that kicks in next year.

Then you have the next tier of players- that have signed contracts a few years ago- guys that are somewhat comprable to Kemba---- and Kemba will get similar money since the cap has only gone up since these playeres have signed their deals:

Milsap at 30M a year, Lowry at 32M a year, Blake Griffen at 34M a year, Gordon Hayward at 33M a year, Conley at 31M a year, Horford at 29M a year, Love at 30M a year, Lillard at 28M a year, DeRozan at 28M a year, Jrue holiday at 26M a year, Otto Porter at 27M a year. CJ McCollum at 27M a year. Wiggins at 26M a year, Drummond at 26M a year.

All of those are contracts that were signed even BEFORE this offseason (besides Love)....kick in a 5-10% increase for guys that are going to hit free agency.

When Kemba sits down to negotiate his contract he is going to point to the money guys like Lillard, Wall, holliday, Conley, Porter etc. are making. There is NO WAY on Gods Green Earth the guy is getting anything less sthan what say a Jrue holiday or CJ McCollum or Otto Porter got 2 years ago!!!!!! He is going to get a bump from those guys- and I would guess, get about the same as Conley adjusted for cap increase- or about 32-35M a year.

 

[DJ]

Lowe: Trevor Ariza was annoyed by Rockets' stars getting special treatment

Looks like this is part of the reason why Ariza left.

 

[trojanfan12]

Why not? The Lakers are pretty much a completely different team. I just don't see how people can say the Lakers couldn't win a 7 game series against (enter team here). They lost some key players, gained the best player in the world, drafted some good shooters and invited the circus to town.

I mean heck, you could be right. But it's far too early to tell.

Not really too early to tell. The Lakers will likely end up right around 50 wins. That could put them literally anywhere from #3 to #8 in the conference (last year the #3 seed finished with 49 wins, the #8 seed with 47. Houston will be a little worse because they lost a lot of defense and the Jazz will likely be better. The rest of those teams from last year stayed roughly the same.

Throw the Lakers into that mix with the Lebron wild card, but the kids lacking playoff experience and the best case scenario, imo, is a 2nd round exit.

Could the misfits and kids come together like an NBA version of the '70's Raiders and win a lot more than most expect? Sure, but I wouldn't even bet vcash on that.

 

[Black Adam]

I would think this would be your worst nightmare. You have LeBron and its not even like you are going to win anything like he delivered with the Cavs and Heat.

old saying in times like these...

this too, shall pass...

the one thing i get to say is that my team, even WITH LeClown's stink on it, will likely be a playoff team...

I mean, it's the banner YOU were waving when the Cavs came up short...

 

[WiggyRuss]

Not really too early to tell. The Lakers will likely end up right around 50 wins. That could put them literally anywhere from #3 to #8 in the conference (last year the #3 seed finished with 49 wins, the #8 seed with 47. Houston will be a little worse because they lost a lot of defense and the Jazz will likely be better. The rest of those teams from last year stayed roughly the same.

Throw the Lakers into that mix with the Lebron wild card, but the kids lacking playoff experience and the best case scenario, imo, is a 2nd round exit.

Could the misfits and kids come together like an NBA version of the '70's Raiders and win a lot more than most expect? Sure, but I wouldn't even bet vcash on that.

I think the Thunder will be better as well.

A year together will help. No distraction with George's contract will help. Bending over backwards to try and assimilate Carmelo like they did last year held them back--- and when he did play he sucked and hurt their defense. Grant and Roberson should continue to improve--- Roberson in particular could take a step up and be an All-NBA Defender. Noel is on a "prove it" deal and should make an impact off the bench. Steve Adams continues to get better and better. Schroeder will be a nice creator off the bench.

I think the Jazz are Thunder will likely be the #3 and #4 teams in the West---- but its not like its not close with other teams.

 

[trojanfan12]

I mean, it took over a Season for it to click in Miami and that was with 2 other future HoFers.

Guys who had the green light last year * Kuzma, KCP * gonna have to tack a backseat and fall in line with the pecking order.

They have so many new guys that will expect rotation minutes.

It will be a process.

Agree. I expect that, much like when Lebron went to Miami, they will look better in the 2nd half of the season than the first.

That's a good thing as it will build momentum heading into the playoffs. The Heat were able to take that momentum and get to the finals. That Heat team also had another HoF'er and an all star (possible HoF'er) that the Lakers don't. Even with that, they ended up losing in the finals to a team they likely would have destroyed if they played them in either of the next 2 finals.

I think the Lakers will be looking pretty good going into the playoffs and we'll see some Lakers fans and some media folks talking about how well they're going to do in the playoff, "can they upset the Warriors/Rockets?" etc., etc.

Then the playoffs will start and the reality of the kids lack of experience and the fact that you have a bunch of guys on 1 year deals on a team that most or all won't be playing for next year will set in.

 

[trojanfan12]

This is a stupid comment considering the loaded free agency class next year.

I highly doubt if the Lakers do miss out on Klay and Kawhi that Kemba Walker is their next option. He is likely pretty far down on that list.

Hey now, leave poor Wiggy alone. He is looking at the Cavs, at best, being in NBA purgatory for a long, long time. All he has left are unlikely scenarios about building around Kevin Love and sniping at the team Lebron left for.

Especially since Lebron pretty much proved everything he said about going to the Lakers to be wrong. lol

 

[WiggyRuss]

Hey now, leave poor Wiggy alone. He is looking at the Cavs, at best, being in NBA purgatory for a long, long time. All he has left are unlikely scenarios about building around Kevin Love and sniping at the team Lebron left for.

Especially since Lebron pretty much proved everything he said about going to the akers to be wrong. lol

+1.

all though ya never know- Sexton could end up being a star. I would certainly rather have him than the young point guard LeBron joined in LA that cannot shoot or stay healthy.

My biggest question is how LeBron will respond to not playing with another All Star caliber talent for the first time in almost a decade. I do not think he has fully thought through what that adjustment will be like and couldn't know what it will be like until he first steps on that court in Game 1.

It was usually in early January or so when LeBron starts getting antsy about a roster and asking for "help". I cannot wait to see what happens this year at that time period. The Cavs in LeBron's first year were 20-20 in their first 40 games and that was WITH Love and Kyrie and LeBron was beating on the front office for help at that point (and got it with JR, Iman and Timo).

 

[trojanfan12]

But there are several players that the Lakers will likely be targeting.

Exactly. People act like if they don't get Kawhi, it's some epic fail. I am sure the Lakers have a list of FA's they will target and I'm sure Kawhi is at the top of the list.

From what I have heard about Rob Pelinka, he has a plan, then he has a contingency plan, then he has plans for every contingency after that.

My guess is that when it comes to signing FA's next summer. Magic will be the main pitchman to the 1st guy on the list (much like he was with Lebron), but Pelinka will be maintaining contact with the other guys on the list in case Kawhi says "no thanks".

 

[Wamu]

Even though I'm excited to see what a healthy Celtics roster will look like sadly it won't make a difference. I'm not saying I don't like the Warriors. But I don't like the Warriors. On the plus side @ least they aren't the Lakers.

 

[trojanfan12]

Kawhi is certainly the most likely. Cousins is a wild card. I have no idea where Butler's head is at. No chance at Kyrie. Klay seems unlikely.

Mostly agree. Short of getting him this off-season, Kawhi going to the Raptors was the next best thing for the Lakers. But a lot can happen between now and next summer.

As I posted before. The Sixers were rumored to be the only EC team that Kawhi would re-sign with long term. If things aren't going well, maybe the Raptors decide to take the trade offer that the Spurs turned down. If that happened, it would seriously hurt the Lakers chances. Especially if the Sixers make a deep playoff run.

Also, the thing I've heard about Toronto with regard to NBA players is that some "get it" and love the place. Others don't and can't get out of there fast enough. DeRozan was a player who "got it". If Kawhi does too...maybe he stays.

Then again, maybe Kawhi is even more dead set on getting to the Lakers so he can give the middle finger to Pop for sending him to Toronto and spend the rest of Pop's career kicking his ass? lol

I doubt the Lakers even kick the tires on Kyrie. I could see that conversation being:

Lakers - "Hey Kyrie, wanna come play with Lebron for a couple more years.

Kyrie - *Laughter* followed by dial tone.

Klay is an interesting cat. I think he definitely is happy where he is. But at the same time, his Dad won a title with the Lakers, loved being a Laker, loves Magic, works for the team and may like the idea of watching his son every night. I expect Magic may ask for his help in recruiting Klay if it got to that point. Don't know if it would help, but it wouldn't hurt.

Boogie will be determined by how he looks after the injury and what happens with Kawhi and/or 1 or 2 others.

And agree...who the hell knows what Butler is thinking? lol

 

[trojanfan12]

I will agree with you that I do think the Lakers may regret not making a run for Kawhi, if they in fact didn't.

The Lakers did make a run at Kawhi. How is that even a question? The Spurs demanded more than the Lakers were willing to give up.

I will not agree with you that the Lakers, or Lebron for that matter, will view a failure to reach the finals as a failure much less a disaster. Lebron certainly understood what he was walking into when he signed with the Lakers. And he knew he was doing it without assurances of any other star joining him.

Wiggy is literally the only person on the planet who thinks that the Lakers not making the finals this year would be a fail.

If he had the ability to even be the slightest bit objective, he'd mock himself for that claim. lol

 

[flyerhawk]

Exactly. People act like if they don't get Kawhi, it's some epic fail. I am sure the Lakers have a list of FA's they will target and I'm sure Kawhi is at the top of the list.

From what I have heard about Rob Pelinka, he has a plan, then he has a contingency plan, then he has plans for every contingency after that.

My guess is that when it comes to signing FA's next summer. Magic will be the main pitchman to the 1st guy on the list (much like he was with Lebron), but Pelinka will be maintaining contact with the other guys on the list in case Kawhi says "no thanks".

Of course the Lakers have a plan. They had a plan prior to this offseason as well and I'm sure that Option 1 wasn't Lebron and the pu pu platter. George staying with OKC likely screwed up their plans.

They will make their moves next year but, IMO, they are now in a make or break situation next year UNLESS Ingram or Ball or Kuzma or Hart make a pretty massive jump in play. There will be a number of game changer FAs available next year but there will be a LOT of teams with lots of money. How many players getting the market next year are really worth a max contract? How many will get one? Brooklyn is going to have enough cap space to sign two max free agents next year. Philly will have cap space to sign one. Clippers as well. Bulls could get there. Bunch of other teams will have cash to burn as well.

Teams are going to be drunken sailors on shore leave next year in FA.

 

[flyerhawk]

The Lakers did make a run at Kawhi. How is that even a question? The Spurs demanded more than the Lakers were willing to give up.

It depends on what they offered. If they offered a coupe of draft picks and Josh Hart, for example, then they didn't really make a run for him.

Wiggy is literally the only person on the planet who thinks that the Lakers not making the finals this year would be a fail.

If he had the ability to even be the slightest bit objective, he'd mock himself for that claim. lol

You are going to be dealing with a lot of Wiggy shadendfreude this season I'm guessing.

 

[trojanfan12]

I think the Thunder will be better as well.

I'll have to see it in the playoffs to believe it. I think they will be a lot like last year. PG may end up regretting his decision.

Having said that, after saying "I don't recruit" when it came to FA's previously. It looks like Westbrook learned his lesson and spent much of last season recruiting PG.

Maybe he can learn to share the ball in close games too?

Melo being gone won't hurt either.

 

[trojanfan12]

It depends on what they offered. If they offered a coupe of draft picks and Josh Hart, for example, then they didn't really make a run for him.

From what was being said out here by folks who are close to the Lakers. The Spurs wanted Ingram, Kuzma, Hart, 2 future firsts and 2 future "swaps" and wouldn't take Deng.

The Lakers were willing to do all of it except Ingram. In fact (and I don't know if this is 100% true) I heard the Lakers were willing to replace Ingram with Ball.

 

[trojanfan12]

all though ya never know- Sexton could end up being a star. I would certainly rather have him than the young point guard LeBron joined in LA that cannot shoot or stay healthy.

As of right now. I disagree. All Sexton really has is a relatively strong showing in the same summer league that "the young point guard Lebron joined in LA that cannot shoot or stay healthy" was MVP of last year.

As for not staying healthy, shows what you don't know. Had last season been about winning or if the Lakers were in the playoff hunt, he likely plays in more games. The Lakers were cautious with both he and Ingram last year.

And before you start your prp bullshit. That was initially done as an attempt to prevent surgery (much like players resting some injuries before settling on surgery).

Pretty funny how your hypocrisy is showing. When Kyrie was in Cleveland and folks brought up his injury issues, you tried to paint him as some kind of iron man.

He leaves and he's suddenly injury prone. A young player on a team that you don't like has an injury that isn't even all that severe by todays standards and he's suddenly injury prone after 1 season.

 

[shopson67]

Of course the Lakers have a plan. They had a plan prior to this offseason as well and I'm sure that Option 1 wasn't Lebron and the pu pu platter. George staying with OKC likely screwed up their plans.

They will make their moves next year but, IMO, they are now in a make or break situation next year UNLESS Ingram or Ball or Kuzma or Hart make a pretty massive jump in play. There will be a number of game changer FAs available next year but there will be a LOT of teams with lots of money. How many players getting the market next year are really worth a max contract? How many will get one? Brooklyn is going to have enough cap space to sign two max free agents next year. Philly will have cap space to sign one. Clippers as well. Bulls could get there. Bunch of other teams will have cash to burn as well.

Teams are going to be drunken sailors on shore leave next year in FA.

None of those teams have Lebron on their roster, an elite NBA history for the franchise, or Hollywood in their backyard. They will be near the top of most free agent's wish list.

As far as the pu-pu platter, what would have the Lakers do? Since George made his odd decision, what was left other than to hold onto their cap space until next year? They found vets willing to take 1 year deals that can defend and rebound to surround Lebron, which nicely offsets their young players that should be coming into their own as the season progresses. Certainly having someone like Lebron drawing the defense's attention will allow better matchups for the kids as well as the vets.

The only move I had issues with was losing Randle. I actually prefer keeping all the kids together over bringing in "Playoff P". Now that it looks like the 2nd max player will be acquired through free agency, the Lakers can keep all that young talent intact and add to it, instead of replace it.

 

[tlance]

you have to re-adjust how you are thinking about this. What has happened in the past does not matter. Conley got what like 34 million a year a few years ago and the cap has only risen (though not substantially) since then. The SUPER ELITE players are going to be getting 40 or so a year soon - some have already- and that next tier like Kemba are going to be getting AT LEAST 30 a year- if not more.

No, the league has to readjust.

I understand that guys like Kemba are going to make that kind of money.

But, because of max contracts, when a player like LeBron is making 40 and Kemba is getting 35, the team paying Kemba has no shot unless they also have another superstar or 2. Because LeBron is about 8x more valuable in terms of generating wins and he is only making 12-15% more.

The single biggest problem with NBA finances today is that the market value for players like Conley is 85-100% of what the true superstars are getting. That has to change somehow.