2013 TSHQ CFB Preseason Top 25 #7 Texas

[Wildcatsfan1]

As another off season of College Football material kicks off, this year marks the third year I’ll throw my hat in the ring and look at a number of topics and categories. In the process I’ll look to do everything from predicting next year’s 25 best teams, identify the games of the year, narrow down the Heisman field, identify those replacing 2012′s stars and ultimately make predictions for each league, culminating in a national championship pick. They’ll be many things I’ll be ridiculed for. There will be a number of things that will surprise some people. Ultimately you’ll come away from the next 6 months of material as ready for the college football season as I can possibly make you. While I’ll be sure to miss on things I would like to remind the skeptics I did correctly predict the same number of bowl teams preseason as Phil Steele a year ago as well as top him in BCS Bowl participants predicted before the year. Nonetheless I’m not putting out any magazines soon so keep buying his for the top preseason coverage available.

The key in any top 25 poll is understanding the premise on which the poll is based because not all top 25 polls are built the same way. Some people choose to rank teams 1-25 based on where they think teams will be ranked at year’s end. If they think a team will lose 5 games they won’t rank them. While that may seem logical I’ve never been a proponent of that style of poll and it has never been, nor will ever be, how I choose to do my top 25 polls. My polls reflect the 25 teams entering 2013 who I think are the top 25 teams on a neutral field if the country played a round-robin. If a team is likely to max out at 7 wins that doesn’t give me the urge to rank a nine-win team over them if the nine-win team is from a much weaker league. With that covered, let us continue the top 25 for 2013 as the official kickoff of the off season coverage here at The Sports Headquarters.

Returning Starters Figures from Phil Steele’s Blog

Teams already ranked:

#25. Fresno State Bulldogs
#24 Vanderbilt Commodores
#23 USC Trojans
#22 Miami Hurricanes
#21 Ole Miss Rebels
#20 Boise State Broncos
#19 Wisconsin Badgers
#18 Oklahoma Sooners
#17 Florida State Seminoles
#16 Northwestern Wildcats
#15 Oklahoma State Cowboys
#14 Louisville Cardinals
#13 Florida Gators
#12 TCU Horned Frogs
#11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
#10 LSU Tigers
#9 Clemson Tigers
#8 South Carolina Gamecocks

Coming in at #7

Texas Longhorns

2012 Record: 9-4

Conference Finish: Tied for 3rd (Won tiebreaker over Oklahoma State)

Bowl: Won Alamo Bowl 31-27 over Oregon State

2013 Returning Starters: 10 offense, 9 defense

2013 Offense

I was pretty high on Texas last season, selecting them to be an at-large recipient for a BCS Bowl in the preseason. While the Longhorns didn’t match those expectations, with 19 returning starters, I’m surely not backing off the train in 2013. Using Phil Steele’s returning figures for each of the three seasons I’ve done this exercise, one thing that has proven consistent is the success of some teams with the top returning starter rates. Last year UTSA, Ohio St, Kansas St and Florida were a few examples. In 2011 Vanderbilt and Michigan were the top two. Texas has as many returning starters as anyone in the country in 2013 and despite a number of flaws a season ago finished 9-4. If they can tweak a few of those things in a favorable way, they can win the Big 12 in 2013 which lacks a truly dominant team. Perhaps as big as anything on offense is the quarterback position. David Ash spent most of last season as the starter but really never did anything to definitively rule out Case McCoy which led in part in McCoy starting the last game. The spring game showed mixed reviews of Ash who started strong with a couple early touchdown tosses before two interceptions reminded some of the sporadic Ash from 2013. The Longhorns plan to feature a more up-tempo attack in 2013 and many feel it will play to Ash’s strengths. Get the quarterback position right and this offense has legitimate potential. Tyrone Swoopes is a name to watch after his showing in the spring game with some elusive play-making ability and even the praises of Mack Brown. The freshman could be a wild card at the position in 2013.

The running backs are a deep personnel group that has to have people excited. Johnathan Gray was a highly touted recruit a season ago and had a respectable freshman season with 701 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. He was especially featured in a lot of Wildcat packages (about 99% of which he seemed to keep the ball) and could be in line for a breakout 2013. Joe Bergeron returns for his junior season after being a touchdown thief a season ago with 16 scores, representing Texas’ biggest weapon in the backfield inside the red zone. At 6’1, 240 lbs Bergeron likely will again see similar touches inside the 20 and has a good chance again to lead Longhorns backs in touchdowns. Malcolm Brown represents the third back who was featured quite a bit a season ago and while he still sits behind the other two is a third weapon most teams don’t possess. Central Florida had three backs a season ago who I liked a lot and this backfield reminds me of another version of that. If the passing game becomes a big enough weapon to draw significant defensive attention, I’d be very scared of this backfield.


The wide receiver position truly lacked a third target a season ago after Jaxon Shipley and Mike Davis. In fact the only other player on the roster who had more than 20 catches a season ago (Marquise Goodwin) is gone leaving some question marks at that position. Between Davis and Shipley the Longhorns have two safety nets that can make plays down field as well as over the middle. The tight end position was relatively underutilized last year with the leading pass catcher at the position D.J Grant only catching 14 passes. As August/September roll around, look to see if a third guy emerges as the rest of the receivers and tight ends on the spring roster lack the proven production to be handed the job. Between many freshman and sophomores, offensive coordinator Major Applewhite feels pretty good a reliable weapon will emerge.

The entire offensive line returns this year and all will be juniors or seniors giving Texas a very experienced front five that could be a major key to the 2013 offense. The line last year was exceptional allowing the third fewest tackles for a loss per game in the country as well as ranking very well nationally in sacks allowed. Slightly under 50% of their red zone touchdowns came on the ground as well showing the Longhorns ability to drive the defense back and punch the ball in for six. With another year of experience, this line has the ability to make things very easy for the quarterback and running game.

Rest can be seen here: 2013 CFB top 25

 

[geneh_33]

I expect Texas to improve a lot this year, but I do not expect them to finish the season ranked at #7.

 

[Wildcatsfan1]

As always, my poll doesn't reflect end of year rank. It simply is the best teams in CFB regardless of schedule.

 

[WhiteMamba]

So glad you made it over here Wildcatsfan1.... AWESOME JOB again. Keep em coming....

Good to see you continue this @ the Hoop.... 5 stars... OH WAIT....

I mean 10 outta 10

 

[HizzleRocker]

Not to mention that our defense returns its quarterback LB Hicks - who was injured much of the year.

We also have another Malcolm Brown, DT, who is a big name to watch out for. Freshman last year and had split playing time with Brandon Moore, who was just signed by the Chargers. He was virtually unblockable as a freshman when he played, and will be even much more dangerous this year.

Ash should be better this year, with probably some of the best protection in the country, another year of maturity, all of his weapons returning, and an offense better suited to him. However, he will also likely be kept on a short leash as McCoy and the phenom Swoopes are waiting in the background.

I honestly have high hopes of a Big 12 title, and a BCS bid.

 

[Hornsstampede2.0]

The offensive line is the key.

Texas finally looks to field an experienced and deep offensive line.

The last time that happened was before Vince young. VY and McCoy's elusiveness hid a 10 year decay of the Longhorns offensive line talent.

A lot of the stuggles in 2010-2011 was field an inexperienced and patchwork offensive line. Gilbert, Ash, and Baby McCoy did not have the mobile decision making of Vince Young and Colt. The O-line weakness was exposed.

Texas made a concentrated effort in the 2011 and 2012 seasons to stockpile offensive line.

A returning upperclassmen offensive line with a lot of depth is the #1 reason to finally expect BCS bowl games in Austin.

And they are not resting, the 2013 recruiting class (while bashed for it overall ranking) was arguably the best Offensive line class in the country.

Look no further than to College Station in 2012 to see what a great senior laden offensive line can do for a team.

Mack finally seems to have learned that lesson after 9 years of weak offensive lines.

 

[MarkOU]

^^ but has he defense learned how to tackle? That will be the real question.

 

[BTHOtu]

Look no further than to College Station in 2012 to see what a great senior laden offensive line can do for a team.


...and a bullshit late hit out of bounds penalty flag thrown by a tea-sippin referee that turned a fourth and long that would have ended the game into a first and ten.

 

[BTHOtu]

Though I'd ruffle y'alls feathers a little. There was only one senior on the O-line in College Station in 2012. We only lost two linemen. One entered the draft early and one graduated.

 

[fordman84]

The offensive line is the key.

Texas finally looks to field an experienced and deep offensive line.

The last time that happened was before Vince young. VY and McCoy's elusiveness hid a 10 year decay of the Longhorns offensive line talent.

A lot of the stuggles in 2010-2011 was field an inexperienced and patchwork offensive line. Gilbert, Ash, and Baby McCoy did not have the mobile decision making of Vince Young and Colt. The O-line weakness was exposed.

Texas made a concentrated effort in the 2011 and 2012 seasons to stockpile offensive line.

A returning upperclassmen offensive line with a lot of depth is the #1 reason to finally expect BCS bowl games in Austin.

And they are not resting, the 2013 recruiting class (while bashed for it overall ranking) was arguably the best Offensive line class in the country.

Look no further than to College Station in 2012 to see what a great senior laden offensive line can do for a team.

Mack finally seems to have learned that lesson after 9 years of weak offensive lines.

Serious? I mean, I agree that it all starts up front, but A&M had one Sr on their Oline...the center.


edit: Was beat by 1 minute

 

[BTHOtu]

We saw Gilbert at SMU last season. The dude is still color blind. Hell of a good QB coming out of HS just couldn't handle it on the next level.

I like how little Shipley has progressed. He has been turning to a dangerous weapon like his older brother was. Unlike Cart's little mouth-breather brother. Ash looked pretty good in the second half of the bowl game. If he could play like that through 4 quarters the offense would be close to where they were the last several years.

The defense needs consistency. They have all the talent in the state but looked like they needed work on the fundamentals. The scheme looks like it might be a little too complicated also. I know they have a defensive genius for a DC but there were times that they looked confused.

I expect Big Brother to finish in the top ten this year.

 

[BTHOtu]

I expect Big Brother to finish in the top ten this year.

But I still hate tu. Hope y'all go 0-12.

 

[bravesfan]

Does Texas have a capable QB this year?

 

[Hornsstampede2.0]

Texas has a very capable QB.

Despite the perception, David Ash was very effective and efficient.

His sophomore numbers stack us nicely against the Sophmore numbers of Colt McCoy.

The issue was again the OFFENSIVE LINE.

A few games this past season, the Texas O-LINE would be mauled.
That was no different than the O-LINES that Colt had to deal with at times.
But, Colt McCoy had a certain elusiveness and mobile decision making ability to turn those those things into decent plays.

Ash does not quite have the McCoy elusiveness magic. So, he needed a little more protection.

But, if the O-LINE is adequate, David Ash showed to be a above-average to elite QB.

All of the optimism in 2013 can be traced to a very bullish opinion of the line.

It should be a very very good line.

And Texas has not been able to say that in arguably a decade.

 

[HizzleRocker]

Does Texas have a capable QB this year?

Ash is a very good qb - with 1 exception. When things start going south, he has not shown the ability to regroup and rebound. If he throws a pick or two, you can expect more to follow.

He will be not just good, but terrific in 10 of our 12 games. The coaches have to keep a close eye on him, and be willing to pull the trigger quickly in the other 2 games.

Each of the last 3 seasons McCoy has shown the ability to come into a game late and win big games for us. As long as we pull Ash quickly enough in the game or two applicable - we have a chance to have a big year.

 

[Sox33OSU]

Texas needs the X factor player on offense that they lack. Ash is a capable QB, but not a star. They have some decent RBs but no surefire gamebreaker. Davis and Shipley look decent but not amazing. They need a VY or Colt McCoy or Ced Benson, and they haven't had anyone that has stood up.

 

[HizzleRocker]

Texas needs the X factor player on offense that they lack. Ash is a capable QB, but not a star. They have some decent RBs but no surefire gamebreaker. Davis and Shipley look decent but not amazing. They need a VY or Colt McCoy or Ced Benson, and they haven't had anyone that has stood up.

Decent RBs? Johnathan Gray was the #1 recruit in the country, and maybe the best RB ever to play high school football in the state of Texas. He was only a true freshman last year with split playing time, and he still averaged over 5yds per carry.

Malcolm Brown was Rivals #1 RB in the country the year before. He was only a true sophomore last year, and got injured.

We will have both of those guys, healthy, now playing as a Junior and a Sophomore. Scary is a better word than decent.

 

[Droopdog51]

Decent RBs? Johnathan Gray was the #1 recruit in the country, and maybe the best RB ever to play high school football in the state of Texas. He was only a true freshman last year with split playing time, and he still averaged over 5yds per carry.

Malcolm Brown was Rivals #1 RB in the country the year before. He was only a true sophomore last year, and got injured.

We will have both of those guys, healthy, now playing as a Junior and a Sophomore. Scary is a better word than decent.

Yeah, decent is about right, I'll even give you good. However, I will not say they are great or some of the best ever at Texas. That is something that was mentioned in the OP. You mention 2 RBs that you say were #1 in the country in High School. What have they done on the field in college? A&M also had a 5 Star freshman RB that averaged over 5 yards a carry as a true freshman in Trey Williams and you don't hear me saying he is going to be one of the greatest RBs in A&Ms history.

You have some good RBs with potential at Texas, but none of the RBs on the roster have shown anything that says they will be an All American or be anywhere close to some of the great RBs that have come through Austin.

 

[Droopdog51]

Sorry, got my threads mixed up. It was another thread that was boasting of how good the Texas RBs were going to be this year.

 

[geneh_33]

Sorry, got my threads mixed up. It was another thread that was boasting of how good the Texas RBs were going to be this year.

That's okay. Next time get drunk when you aren't on this site. No, wait, that would make this site more uninteresting, so you can't do that!