2013 Rosterbation

[tzill]

Or how about the 7/175 that was being bandied about? Yikes!

BIG game, IMO, for Timmeh tonight. If he gets rocked again, they should probably DL-15 him.

SabeySabes and Bochy already spoke to that this week -- he'll be skipped July 20 in Philly. Presumably, that'd give Penny a start in his place (b/c they play 9 days in a row from the 17-25, so they can't go with a 4 man staff). That would mean Timmy would then pitch on the 25th vs. the Padres, giving him 11 days between starts.

 

[SFGRTB]

McCutchen isn't a good comparison - it's like comparing apples to rocking chairs. It wasn't a free agent (or very-soon-to-be FA) contract - the pirates bought out all of his arbitration years, and 2 post-arb years. The post-arb years are at 13 & 14 million, which are low (provided he continues at lease as good as his recent production level) but what McCutchen got when he signed that contract was FIFTY-ONE MILLION DOLLARS : guaranteed. Just like the contract that MadBum signed was "team friendly" : because he got a massive guaranteed bundle of cash. Maybe each of them could have gotten more (if they don't get hurt or suddenly have "Timmy problems"), but they have money security for the rest of their lives (unless they do really stupid things with their money). And that's why they signed those contracts - it's like life insurance: "piece of mind" no matter how much you end up sucking on the field later on. And both of them, if they continue to be the great players we expect them to be, will have a shot at (at least) one contract later, when they can *really* cash in. IF they continue to excel - if they don't (they got "mediocre" over the last 5 years) then it was really smart of them to get all that guaranteed cash up front, no?

The team gambled, and by guaranteeing a large # of years and a large # of millions, got a "discount price" on what that talent would have cost on the open market - but then it wasn't "open market goods" they were buying.

So McCutchen isn't a good comparison. (Just as MadBum's contract would be a bad yardstick to determine what a #1 starting pitcher should get in FA next year).

Ahh thanks for the insight/clarification.

 

[Mays-Fan]

It's a good thing for the Giants that Timmy was "more comfortable" signing short-term contracts, eh?

Indeed. However, I shed no tears for Timmeh. In his career so far, he will have cumulatively made $66 million through the end of 2013, and that is before signing his next contract. We should all suffer from that kind of lack of foresight.

 

[tzill]

Here's my latest take on the 2013 roster:

Under Contract
Zito - 20
Tim - 20
Cain - 21
Lopez - 4
Panda - 6
Tron - 5
Bum - 1
Arb Eligible, best guess
Weez - 5 (they'll have to cut and re-sign him for this)
KCYa - 4
Romo - 3
Nate - 2
Hensley - 2
Buster - 2 (I see a long term deal similar to MadBums)
Blanco - 1
Arias - 0.5
Free Agents, best guess
Melky - 15
Freddy - 0
Affeldt - 0
Oxy - 0
Riot - 2
Weed - 0
Penny - 1
Team Controlled, all making about 0.5
Kontos, Belt, Craw, Chez3, Christian, Peggs

That's 24 guys and a total payroll of 118.5MM. Add in Huffers $2MM buyout and it's 120.5. I think the budget will be in the $135/140MM range, so that leaves an infield roster spot and the funds to get one strong FA. This FA could be and IF or an OF. The roster as I've set it up:

IF: Belt, Riot, Craw, Panda, Arias
OF: Nate, Blanco, Melky, Christian, Peggs

Obviously, a FA OF would replace Christian or Peggs (n.b this could be Oxy, but I doubt it). A FA 2B would send Riot to the bench. I can't see us adding a FA starter at C, 1B, SS, 3B, SP.

2013 FAs --
2B: Izturis, Johnson, Lopez
OF: Upton, Quentin, Swisher, Young

Kelly Johnson and/or Upton/Quentin would work.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Here's my latest take on the 2013 roster:

Under Contract
Zito - 20
Tim - 20
Cain - 21
Lopez - 4
Panda - 6
Tron - 5
Bum - 1
Arb Eligible, best guess
Weez - 5 (they'll have to cut and re-sign him for this)
KCYa - 4
Romo - 3
Nate - 2
Hensley - 2
Buster - 2 (I see a long term deal similar to MadBums)
Blanco - 1
Arias - 0.5
Free Agents, best guess
Melky - 15
Freddy - 0
Affeldt - 0
Oxy - 0
Riot - 2
Weed - 0
Penny - 1
Team Controlled, all making about 0.5
Kontos, Belt, Craw, Chez3, Christian, Peggs

That's 24 guys and a total payroll of 118.5MM. Add in Huffers $2MM buyout and it's 120.5. I think the budget will be in the $135/140MM range, so that leaves an infield roster spot and the funds to get one strong FA. This FA could be and IF or an OF. The roster as I've set it up:

IF: Belt, Riot, Craw, Panda, Arias
OF: Nate, Blanco, Melky, Christian, Peggs

Obviously, a FA OF would replace Christian or Peggs (n.b this could be Oxy, but I doubt it). A FA 2B would send Riot to the bench. I can't see us adding a FA starter at C, 1B, SS, 3B, SP.

2013 FAs --
2B: Izturis, Johnson, Lopez
OF: Upton, Quentin, Swisher, Young

Kelly Johnson and/or Upton/Quentin would work.

Angel Pagan Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

I'd be OK with giving Pagan 2/10 or 2/12, something like that.

 

[SFGRTB]

Here's my latest take on the 2013 roster:

Under Contract
Zito - 20
Tim - 20
Cain - 21
Lopez - 4
Panda - 6
Tron - 5
Bum - 1
Arb Eligible, best guess
Weez - 5 (they'll have to cut and re-sign him for this)
KCYa - 4
Romo - 3
Nate - 2
Hensley - 2
Buster - 2 (I see a long term deal similar to MadBums)
Blanco - 1
Arias - 0.5
Free Agents, best guess
Melky - 15
Freddy - 0
Affeldt - 0
Oxy - 0
Riot - 2
Weed - 0
Penny - 1
Team Controlled, all making about 0.5
Kontos, Belt, Craw, Chez3, Christian, Peggs

That's 24 guys and a total payroll of 118.5MM. Add in Huffers $2MM buyout and it's 120.5. I think the budget will be in the $135/140MM range, so that leaves an infield roster spot and the funds to get one strong FA. This FA could be and IF or an OF. The roster as I've set it up:

IF: Belt, Riot, Craw, Panda, Arias
OF: Nate, Blanco, Melky, Christian, Peggs

Obviously, a FA OF would replace Christian or Peggs (n.b this could be Oxy, but I doubt it). A FA 2B would send Riot to the bench. I can't see us adding a FA starter at C, 1B, SS, 3B, SP.

2013 FAs --
2B: Izturis, Johnson, Lopez
OF: Upton, Quentin, Swisher, Young

Kelly Johnson and/or Upton/Quentin would work.

Almost perfect, some things though. Tim is going to be at $22 million. Weez, who the fuck knows how much he will get. I think it's pretty clear the Giants will DFA him with an understanding that they'll sign some sort of incentive-laden contract. Arby numbers seem pretty accurate.

IMO, I think we endup cutting/trading Nate, and replaced with a minor league FA, re upping Affeldt on a 2 year $6 million deal, retaining Wilson on a multi year deal and Melky on a 4/$52 million deal. That puts us around 118-120 million, giving us about 10-12 million to spend (doubt the Giants add much to the current 131 million payroll).

 

[Mays-Fan]

Angel Pagan Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

I'd be OK with giving Pagan 2/10 or 2/12, something like that.

Meant to add that, as much as it saddens me to say, I'd be willing to part ways with Wilson.

 

[tzill]

Angel Pagan Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

I'd be OK with giving Pagan 2/10 or 2/12, something like that.

Yeah, it's a possibility, but I want a better defender in CF, and as long as Oxy's a Giant I can't see them moving him out of there. OTOH, Gary Brown might just be making that a moot concern.

Dude is starting to RAKE in AA...he's got to be in Fresno by year's end.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Yeah, it's a possibility, but I want a better defender in CF, and as long as Oxy's a Giant I can't see them moving him out of there. OTOH, Gary Brown might just be making that a moot concern.

Dude is starting to RAKE in AA...he's got to be in Fresno by year's end.

I'm with you. That's why I think a 2/12 for Pagan makes sense as a bridge to the next solution - hopefully someone homegrown like Brown.

And can someone please explain what happened to Oxy's defense? In 2010 with the Mets he was a +2.1 dWAR, and 94 of his 145 games were in CF.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/paganan01.shtml

 

[tzill]

Almost perfect, some things though. Tim is going to be at $22 million. Weez, who the fuck knows how much he will get. I think it's pretty clear the Giants will DFA him with an understanding that they'll sign some sort of incentive-laden contract. Arby numbers seem pretty accurate.

IMO, I think we endup cutting/trading Nate, and replaced with a minor league FA, re upping Affeldt on a 2 year $6 million deal, retaining Wilson on a multi year deal and Melky on a 4/$52 million deal. That puts us around 118-120 million, giving us about 10-12 million to spend (doubt the Giants add much to the current 131 million payroll).

1. Thanks for the correction on Timmy -- you are absolutely correct. $22.25MM next year.
2. Weez was a guess. He won't get $8MM and he's worth more here than anywhere else (marketing). I can't see any team willing to pay him $8MM.
3. You may be exactly correct on Nate -- he could be gone in two weeks.
4. No way Affeldt signs for 2/6...he'll get $4-5 from somebody.
5. Payroll will increase a bit next year, $135-140MM, IMO.

 

[Stokes1931]

Here's my latest take on the 2013 roster:

Under Contract
Zito - 20
Tim - 20
Cain - 21
Lopez - 4
Panda - 6
Tron - 5
Bum - 1
Arb Eligible, best guess
Weez - 5 (they'll have to cut and re-sign him for this)
KCYa - 4
Romo - 3
Nate - 2
Hensley - 2
Buster - 2 (I see a long term deal similar to MadBums)
Blanco - 1
Arias - 0.5
Free Agents, best guess
Melky - 15
Freddy - 0
Affeldt - 0
Oxy - 0
Riot - 2
Weed - 0
Penny - 1
Team Controlled, all making about 0.5
Kontos, Belt, Craw, Chez3, Christian, Peggs

That's 24 guys and a total payroll of 118.5MM. Add in Huffers $2MM buyout and it's 120.5. I think the budget will be in the $135/140MM range, so that leaves an infield roster spot and the funds to get one strong FA. This FA could be and IF or an OF. The roster as I've set it up:

IF: Belt, Riot, Craw, Panda, Arias
OF: Nate, Blanco, Melky, Christian, Peggs

Obviously, a FA OF would replace Christian or Peggs (n.b this could be Oxy, but I doubt it). A FA 2B would send Riot to the bench. I can't see us adding a FA starter at C, 1B, SS, 3B, SP.

2013 FAs --
2B: Izturis, Johnson, Lopez
OF: Upton, Quentin, Swisher, Young

Kelly Johnson and/or Upton/Quentin would work.

Where's Susac?!?!?

 

[SFGRTB]

1. Thanks for the correction on Timmy -- you are absolutely correct. $22.25MM next year.
2. Weez was a guess. He won't get $8MM and he's worth more here than anywhere else (marketing). I can't see any team willing to pay him $8MM.
3. You may be exactly correct on Nate -- he could be gone in two weeks.
4. No way Affeldt signs for 2/6...he'll get $4-5 from somebody.
5. Payroll will increase a bit next year, $135-140MM, IMO.

I think $5 mill for Weez is a fair guess, but really its a tough one to gauge. Will he get an incentive laden contract or get a 1 year do or die type deal ($2MM?). middle of the road is fair to guess.

Yes, Affeldt will get more elsewhere. But, will he take it? After this year, he will have made $24,063,000 dollars in his ML career. He has ingrained himself into the community in the lines of service and an ambassador to the organization, and he has high remarks in the clubhouse and the front office. He has a lot going for him here and he would likely take a pay cut at this point in his career, I don't think its all about the money for him. I'd say unless Seattle comes around and offers something big or some team offers something absolutely absurd, he's coming back at a bargain.

I guess we'll have to wait and see what the Giants say about the payroll, they usually don't lie when they say how their payroll will look like.

 

[calsnowskier]

Another note on getting Bourne...

If we were to sign him, our 1st rounder in next years draft would disappear. Is he that much better than Brown/Oxy? The more I think of it, the more I believe there is a higher probability that Oxy stays than Leche stays, and a higher probability still that they both stay.

 

[filosofy29]

Another note on getting Bourne...

If we were to sign him, our 1st rounder in next years draft would disappear. Is he that much better than Brown/Oxy? The more I think of it, the more I believe there is a higher probability that Oxy stays than Leche stays, and a higher probability still that they both stay.

For the right prices, I'd be ok with both of those guys staying. Still would be nice to get Quentin tho.

 

[tzill]

Another note on getting Bourne...

If we were to sign him, our 1st rounder in next years draft would disappear. Is he that much better than Brown/Oxy? The more I think of it, the more I believe there is a higher probability that Oxy stays than Leche stays, and a higher probability still that they both stay.

Great point. I'm not convinced that Bourn is any better than Oxy, and the three year numbers bear that out:

2012 OPS+; 2009-11 avg OPS+; 2012 WAR; 2009-11 avg WAR

Bourn: 119; 106; 4.1; 2.8
Oxy: 111; 108; 1.8; 3.3

Bourn is having a great year and is superior defensively. He's only 1 year younger than Oxy. I wouldn't overspend on him. If the Braves want to qualify him at $11-12MM for 2013, G-d bless 'em. If not, I'd kick the tires. But I wouldn't pay him that much AND give up our 2013 first rounder.

 

[SFGRTB]

Well, there goes Quentin.

Signed a 3-year $27MM contract extension with the Pads...

 

[Mays-Fan]

I saw that Nate played some 3B in the minors, though not all that well.

But perhaps he could play some 1B, as someone else suggested. Platoon him and Buster, lefty-righty.

I'd rather us do that than overpay for some washed-up rental.

 

[msgkings322]

Well, there goes Quentin.

Signed a 3-year $27MM contract extension with the Pads...

That straight up blows. Really would have been the best fit for us by a long shot, and look how cheap?

I think he gave SD a hometown discout (he's from there), but we coulda had him for the 4/40 or 3/33 if he wasn't so hellbent on staying there.

Dammit.

 

[SFGRTB]

That straight up blows. Really would have been the best fit for us by a long shot, and look how cheap?

I think he gave SD a hometown discout (he's from there), but we coulda had him for the 4/40 or 3/33 if he wasn't so hellbent on staying there.

Dammit.

The fact that he took a slight discount to play in PETCO (I know he's from there, but still) makes me think SF would have been on his list. Better hitters park, better situation to win, better lineup around him.

This is all assuming that Sabean had interest himself.

But it really does blow, he was the perfect fit. Time to find the alternative.

 

[filosofy29]

That straight up blows. Really would have been the best fit for us by a long shot, and look how cheap?

I think he gave SD a hometown discout (he's from there), but we coulda had him for the 4/40 or 3/33 if he wasn't so hellbent on staying there.

Dammit.

The fact that he took a slight discount to play in PETCO (I know he's from there, but still) makes me think SF would have been on his list. Better hitters park, better situation to win, better lineup around him.

This is all assuming that Sabean had interest himself.

But it really does blow, he was the perfect fit. Time to find the alternative.

Didn't Quentin get a WS ring with the ChiSox? If so, I can imagine why he signed the extension with the Padres. Guaranteed money (decent enough contract) to play in front of his hometown and living in a nice area that he grew up in. He really doesn't need to "prove" anything else in his career, so the thought of playing for his (probable) favorite team growing up can be enticing.

Sucks for the Giants though (assuming they had interest, like sfsg was saying).