2013 Rosterbation

[calsnowskier]

Still early, and we are doing GREAT this year (recent run excepted), but we can always try to get a grasp of what is to come...

According to Cotts, we have the following players becoming FAs after '12...

Melky
Franchez
Affeldt
Oxy
Riot
Weed
Penny (Cotts did not have him listed, but I am pretty sure he only signed for '12)

I also thought they signed both Affeldt and Lopez to 2-year deals, so I am not 100% trusting their up-to-date-ness.

Anyway, I figure we let Franchez, Weed and Penny walk, and one of Melk/Oxy. That means we retain Riot, Affeldt, Melk/Oxy.

We also have these players eligible for Arb...

Weez
KCYa
Romo
Nate
Hensley
Posey
Blanco
Arias
Burriss
Whitey

I figure Nate, Hensley, Whitey and Burriss get non-tendered (MAYBE Weez, but I have a hard time seeing that), and we keep KCYa, Romo, Posey, Arias, Weez and Blanco.

Further, Huff has a 2M buy out and Hobbit and Shitter come off the books. We also have Gillaspie out of options, and Christian, Hacker and Loux who would still be under team control, but NO ONE expects to be retained.

This leaves us with the following on the 40-man...

C - Posey / Sanchez
INF - Belt / Culberson / Panda / Arias / Riot / Adrianza / Pill / Craw / AnVil
OF - Melk(Oxy) / Blanco / Kieschnick / Peguero
SP - Cain / Bum / Timmeh / Vogey / Zito / Surkamp
RP - KCYa / Weez / Affeldt / Romo / Lopez / Kontos / Correa / Edlefsen / Otero / Runzler

That leaves 31. There will be a few 40-man additions from within...

I expect the following to be added (I still do not fully understand the eligibility of the rule V draft, so bare with me)...

Dominguez, Heston, Noonan and MAYBE Gloor or Cavan

So our SF starting 8 (+5)...

C - Posey
1B - Belt
2B - Open
SS - Craw
3B - Panda
OF - Melk/Oxy, Blanco, Open
SP - Cain, Bum, Timmeh, Vogey, Zito

For 2B, internal options are Noonan, Culby, Riot, Arias. I would give the inside track to Noonan or Culby, but I think the BEST option is to go out of the org and get a 1 or 2 year stop-gap. Don't be SHOCKED if Zito is dealt with 12 - 1/3 of his contract paid for for a 2B. This would allow Runz, Surkamp and Heston (maybe Penny?) to vie for the #5 spot.

As for the open OF spot, internal options are Nate, Peggy, Kieschnick, Brown, or resign BOTH Oxy and Melk. Here as well, I think we look outside. A lot of talk has happened on this board surrounding Quentin. I think he will have his tires kicked this off season (maybe sooner). As for the internal options, I think Kieschnick or Melk/Oxy have the inside track.

Assuming the current pen is "the" pen, then with the "loss" of Hensley and Penny, and the return of Weez, the team should have one spot open for competition. Internally, I figure Hembree, Bochy, Otero and Runz have the inside track. Unless a trade is made in the next couple months, I do not see the need for any outside assistance here.

 

[SFGRTB]

*cough Hamilton *cough

But really if there was ever a time the Giants would dive into to FA market for a bat, this would be the time. Bum/Cain are locked up, Shitter and Huffer are off the books, Zeets will be after next year too. Wilson will be A LOT cheaper coming off of Tommy John for the second time.

IDK, I just feel that if the Giants were to everr sign a big bat off the market, next year would be perfect. Yes we would have to increase payroll a bit, but they can afford to just a little after all these years of sellouts and Panda hats.

 

[mistgl]

*cough Hamilton *cough

But really if there was ever a time the Giants would dive into to FA market for a bat, this would be the time. Bum/Cain are locked up, Shitter and Huffer are off the books, Zeets will be after next year too. Wilson will be A LOT cheaper coming off of Tommy John for the second time.

IDK, I just feel that if the Giants were to everr sign a big bat off the market, next year would be perfect. Yes we would have to increase payroll a bit, but they can afford to just a little after all these years of sellouts and Panda hats.

FUCK THAT!

I'm not denying his talent, but screw giving an addict, who's going to be 33, 200+ million. Thats just begging to get burned.

The only bats I see them being in play for are Melky and Quentin. Melkman is a no brainer, his approach is what this park was tailor made for. Quentin, while a sub par fielder, is literally a monster with the bat, and he's only projecting to get a 3-4 year deal.

The FO is finally doing some shit right! No need go fuck it up with an albatross that I don't think our market can sustain.

 

[filosofy29]

FUCK THAT!

I'm not denying his talent, but screw giving an addict, who's going to be 33, 200+ million. Thats just begging to get burned.

The only bats I see them being in play for are Melky and Quentin. Melkman is a no brainer, his approach is what this park was tailor made for. Quentin, while a sub par fielder, is literally a monster with the bat, and he's only projecting to get a 3-4 year deal.

The FO is finally doing some shit right! No need go fuck it up with an albatross that I don't think our market can sustain.

Agreed. No need to give Hamilton a crazy contract when the dude can't stay clean for long and SF is one of the WORST places for an addict for temptation and availability.

Melkman in RF and Quentin in LF wouldn't be that bad defensively. It would be great to retain Pagan, Melky and add Quentin, but that's probably a pipe dream. Also, Quentin is not "literally" a monster when he's hitting.

Agreed again. Sign a bunch of guys with gap to gap line drive hitters and we're set for awhile.

Ideally:

1.) Pagan - CF
2.) Melky - RF
3.) Quentin - LF
4.) Posey - C
5.) Sandoval - 3B
6.) Belt - 1B
7.) Morales - 2B
8.) Crawford - SS

Never gonna happen, but that would be an awesome lineup.



ok, ok, dream over.

 

[SFGRTB]

Alright alright alright fine, pipe dream in a perfect world. But that's what rosterbation is for right

IIRC though, last I heard Hamilton was seeking a 4/5 year deal, nothing TOO insane. But I;d be satisfied with Quentin too.

 

[SFGRTB]

There's BJ Upton too. He's having an awful year and yes, he's likely to always to be at a .240/.330/.425 line. But he steals 30+ bases constantly, hits around 20 HRs and plays good D and he has been injured this year affecting his numbers.

Plus, I think he just wants to get out of Tampa. If he comes to SF, he'll see his brother a lot more, won't be depended on as the main guy on offense and won't have the unfulfilled expectations of the people in Tampa on his shoulders.

 

[msgkings322]

There's BJ Upton too. He's having an awful year and yes, he's likely to always to be at a .240/.330/.425 line. But he steals 30+ bases constantly, hits around 20 HRs and plays good D and he has been injured this year affecting his numbers.

Plus, I think he just wants to get out of Tampa. If he comes to SF, he'll see his brother a lot more, won't be depended on as the main guy on offense and won't have the unfulfilled expectations of the people in Tampa on his shoulders.

Thing is other than the SBs we got a bunch of guys with that kind of production. We need one big legit HR guy to bat 4th. It's gotta be Quentin.

 

[mistgl]

Thing is other than the SBs we got a bunch of guys with that kind of production. We need one big legit HR guy to bat 4th. It's gotta be Quentin.

Agreed. Panda/CQ would be our best 3/4 combo since Bonds/Kent, and it gets Posey out of clean up, something he was never meant to be.

As for 2B, if Riot keeps it up, I'm fine with him on another 1 year deal till something better presents itself. I also wouldn't mind a one year on drew to help him reestablish value... crawfish be damned...

 

[SFGRTB]

Fair enough. Upton would be a decent consolation prize though. Quentin would be my first choice as well.

And the second base class is uninspiring, to say the least. Outside of Kelly Johnson, it's filled with career journeymen and broken glass. And while Johnson would be nice, someones going to overpay him (my guess is teh Doyers). It will be filled by Theriot or internally.

 

[MarcoPolo]

*cough Hamilton *cough

But really if there was ever a time the Giants would dive into to FA market for a bat, this would be the time. Bum/Cain are locked up, Shitter and Huffer are off the books, Zeets will be after next year too. Wilson will be A LOT cheaper coming off of Tommy John for the second time.

IDK, I just feel that if the Giants were to everr sign a big bat off the market, next year would be perfect. Yes we would have to increase payroll a bit, but they can afford to just a little after all these years of sellouts and Panda hats.

The CBA limits the reduction in salary for an arbitration-eligible player to 20% of the previous year's salary. Since Wilson is earning $8.5M this year, that means Wilson will earn a minimum of $6.8M, *unless* the Giants and Wilson come to a "wink-wink-nudge-nudge" deal, where they 'release' him and then sign him the next day 'as a free agent'. In that case, Wilson could sign for any amount at or above league minimum.

 

[SFGRTB]

The CBA limits the reduction in salary for an arbitration-eligible player to 20% of the previous year's salary. Since Wilson is earning $8.5M this year, that means Wilson will earn a minimum of $6.8M, *unless* the Giants and Wilson come to a "wink-wink-nudge-nudge" deal, where they 'release' him and then sign him the next day 'as a free agent'. In that case, Wilson could sign for any amount at or above league minimum.

That was what I was thinking. And I think he would understand.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Since he may not be back at the start (or even middle) of the '13 season, this being his second TJ, I'd love to see him sign a one year contract for 750K, with an option year for (say) $5M with a 750K buy-out. So he'd basically be getting 1.5M guaranteed, and the chance to "prove" himself before becoming a FA.

 

[SFGRTB]

Michael Bourn has been linked to the Giants, for good reason. Blanco has been a nice story, but he has really hit the wall. I'd like to keep him around as a 4th OF, but Bourn is basically and established version of him.

IMO, signing Bourn, Quentin and re-signing Melky would make a great offseason.

 

[mistgl]

Michael Bourn has been linked to the Giants, for good reason. Blanco has been a nice story, but he has really hit the wall. I'd like to keep him around as a 4th OF, but Bourn is basically and established version of him.

IMO, signing Bourn, Quentin and re-signing Melky would make a great offseason.

We have the young cost controlled core, now we need to supplement it with some hitting. Bourn, Melky, and CQ wouldn't be cheap, but I think that makes us the favorites in the West easily.

Bourn is a 5/50 guy easily and is the best lead off option on the market.

Melky is really dependent on what other teams are willing to pay. The cheap skate in me would love 3/30, but the realist in me see's 3/40 as the starting point. He won't get more than Bourn with only two good years to his name.

MLBTR was floating the idea of a Cuddyer like contract for Quentin, but i think that might be a tad cheap. He could be any where from 3/31 to 4/50 depending on demand.

Either way, we spent almost as much money as these three would cost on Cain alone. Sorry Tim, but fuck you and your struggles. You had your chance at the 9 figure deal and turned it down. Take that money and get these three bats! We have Cain, Bum, and the best three in all of baseball in Vogelsong. Zito and Tim for one more year each. Worst case you get Heston or Surkamp to fill in the back end if the Freak nose dives again.

Bourn CF
Melky RF
Panda 3B
Quentin LF (LF is a must to limit his wear an tear)
Posey C
Belt 1B
Crawford SS
Theriot 2B

That would be the best Giants line up since the early 2000s.

 

[tzill]

We have the young cost controlled core, now we need to supplement it with some hitting. Bourn, Melky, and CQ wouldn't be cheap, but I think that makes us the favorites in the West easily.

Bourn is a 5/50 guy easily and is the best lead off option on the market.

Melky is really dependent on what other teams are willing to pay. The cheap skate in me would love 3/30, but the realist in me see's 3/40 as the starting point. He won't get more than Bourn with only two good years to his name.

MLBTR was floating the idea of a Cuddyer like contract for Quentin, but i think that might be a tad cheap. He could be any where from 3/31 to 4/50 depending on demand.

Either way, we spent almost as much money as these three would cost on Cain alone. Sorry Tim, but fuck you and your struggles. You had your chance at the 9 figure deal and turned it down. Take that money and get these three bats! We have Cain, Bum, and the best three in all of baseball in Vogelsong. Zito and Tim for one more year each. Worst case you get Heston or Surkamp to fill in the back end if the Freak nose dives again.

Bourn CF
Melky RF
Panda 3B
Quentin LF (LF is a must to limit his wear an tear)
Posey C
Belt 1B
Crawford SS
Theriot 2B

That would be the best Giants line up since the early 2000s.

This I'm not quite following. Bourn is going to go around 12MM, Melky 12-15, and Quentin at what, 8? Best case? That's 32-35MM a year. Cain makes 20?

BTW, we're not going to commit 32MM+ a year for the OF. Just won't happen, AND I seriously doubt we'd be able to get all three for that amount anyway.

CF Brown
RF Bourn
LF Melky
C Posey
3B Panda
1B Belt
2B Riot
SS Stamos

That I could see happening. Maybe.

 

[gp956]

Michael Bourn has been linked to the Giants, for good reason. Blanco has been a nice story, but he has really hit the wall. I'd like to keep him around as a 4th OF, but Bourn is basically and established version of him.

IMO, signing Bourn, Quentin and re-signing Melky would make a great offseason.

Bourn isn't enough of an upgrade over Blanco/Pagan to invest significant coin into. You'd be buying at peak price, and you're already gonna do that with Melky. Pass

 

[calsnowskier]

Michael Bourn has been linked to the Giants, for good reason. Blanco has been a nice story, but he has really hit the wall. I'd like to keep him around as a 4th OF, but Bourn is basically and established version of him.

IMO, signing Bourn, Quentin and re-signing Melky would make a great offseason.

CF Bourne
RF Leche
C - Posey
LF - Quentin
3B - Panda
1B - Belt
2B - Riot/Noonan
SS - Fish

Not horrible...

 

[gp956]

You know who is a free agent and might have bounce back year in 2013? Jonathan Sanchez.

 

[msgkings322]

This I'm not quite following. Bourn is going to go around 12MM, Melky 12-15, and Quentin at what, 8? Best case? That's 32-35MM a year. Cain makes 20?

BTW, we're not going to commit 32MM+ a year for the OF. Just won't happen, AND I seriously doubt we'd be able to get all three for that amount anyway.

CF Brown
RF Bourn
LF Melky
C Posey
3B Panda
1B Belt
2B Riot
SS Stamos

That I could see happening. Maybe.

No thump in that lineup at all, just like this year. It's a problem we have to address. If money is the problem we might have to get Quentin instead of Bourn, but we gotta get Quentin (or someone similar).

 

[mistgl]

This I'm not quite following. Bourn is going to go around 12MM, Melky 12-15, and Quentin at what, 8? Best case? That's 32-35MM a year. Cain makes 20?

BTW, we're not going to commit 32MM+ a year for the OF. Just won't happen, AND I seriously doubt we'd be able to get all three for that amount anyway.

CF Brown
RF Bourn
LF Melky
C Posey
3B Panda
1B Belt
2B Riot
SS Stamos

That I could see happening. Maybe.

lump cost all together? Cain is 120 with the option.

Bourn = 50mil
Melky = 40
Quentin = lets say 35

50 + 40 + 35 = 125.... hence almost as much as Cain? Made sense to me. I meant total cost of investment, not yearly salary.