Which 2015-16 Playoff Teams Fail to Make the Dance in 2016-17?

[Fountain City Blues]

Broncos
Patriots
Bengals
Texans
Chiefs
Steelers

Panthers
Cardinals
Vikings
'Skins
Packers
Seahawks

Gonna flip flop the Vikings and Packers from an earlier pick. Keep changing my mind on who wins that division. Kind of thinking the talent departure in Cincy along with Hue Jackson (imo, one of the brightest offensive minds in the game) will hurt them and put them closer to the field. Not sure if Denver's defense will be quite as good as it was last year- even great will be a noticeable downgrade from where they were.

Texans and Chiefs should get plenty of pressure from inside their divisions as well, but I am leaning towards each of them winning the division as I did earlier in the offseason. Even if it is them winning the division on a tentative basis. With the offseason being in its doldrums... why not?

 

[tducey]

Bengals Broncos packers

 

[packerzrule]

Bengals Broncos packers

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Man this is tough... I want to remove teams but just don't feel there's a lot there.

On a personal note, I usually don't like posting on these threads because fans of teams freak out regardless of reasoning and disappear if you are ever accurate. I think the entire Falcons nation blew up at me calling me sour for Seattle losing when I said they'd be a mediocre team the following year... and then it happened, and everyone seemed to forget lol.

That said, I'd probably say Chiefs and Vikings.

Chiefs already lost their best player (Houston) for half the season and Maclin/Charles are always injury casualties waiting to happen. Smith is a game manager at best but with key pieces that could go down (or already did with Houston) just don't see it. Oakland has improved vastly (now just time to field the paper) and San Diego should be better than last year at least.

Vikings... this is tough. They have a great young defense but Peterson has GOT to wear down (right?)... and Chicago/Green Bay are improved. Former because of offseason moves and White+Floyd, latter because of the pieces coming back from injury and best QB in the league when 100%.

TEMPTED to make cases for Den/Pitts/Sea/Car (see below) but not sure who I'd replace them with and reasoning below...

The rest I keep trying to make cases for but barring injury it's really hard to.

Denver - TEMPTED but they have the D. Sanchez has made playoffs before with a D and they retained their RB. Okung is an upgrade if he's healthy and I expect Miller to play for Denver next year (they'll work something out).

Cincy - Played too well prior to Dalton's injury and Sanu sucks anyway lol. They didn't really lose anything, still sport one of the best OLs in the league and various people on the hot seat will leave them hungry.

Houston - Just a crap division. Houston has by far the best D thanks to Watt and crew. Osweiler is actually coming into a BETTER situation considering the division.

Seattle - REALLY actually wanted to list my team in the wont make it.. but Seattle just has too much talent. Kam/Bennett are playing for contracts as well. Their contracts aren't up, but they're playing for extensions and Bennett has one more shot at a big one, so the last TWO years may be important for a few extra mil.

GB - Best QB in the league when 100%. Riddled with injuries last year. Don't see how they don't win the division.

NE - Until Brady actually gets hit more than twice a game and Bill collapses into himself, can't put them here... despite a good Bills team.

Pitts - TEMPTED to put them on here... but they've improved their D and best O in the game at the moment. Made it happen even without Ben for some games and banged up for others.

Carolina - TEMPTED to put them on the list but the AFC South is a joke at the moment. They lost Norman but the front 7 dictates the entire game. If Cam goes back to his usual sulking ways and keeps wearing high heels and tight pants, maybe... In seriousness, if Carolina played in a GOOD division, I might just list them. Super Bowl losers have a track record of not returning...

Wash - I think they'll win this division again. Cousins appears to be the real deal and they fixed a secondary which was the sole reason that defense was ATROCIOUS last year. Norman helps, but moving Hall to FS is huge and Cravans should immediately start. Believe their other starting CB also was injured last year. That's an entirely revamped and GOOD crew.

Arizona - Too much talent on D. All depends if Palmer stays alive but could say that with any team. As of NOW he's healthy and so is the entire team so this is obvious.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Come out, come out, wherever you are.

I can't tongue lash everyone

 

[cdumler7]

Man this is tough... I want to remove teams but just don't feel there's a lot there.

On a personal note, I usually don't like posting on these threads because fans of teams freak out regardless of reasoning and disappear if you are ever accurate. I think the entire Falcons nation blew up at me calling me sour for Seattle losing when I said they'd be a mediocre team the following year... and then it happened, and everyone seemed to forget lol.

That said, I'd probably say Chiefs and Vikings.

Chiefs already lost their best player (Houston) for half the season and Maclin/Charles are always injury casualties waiting to happen. Smith is a game manager at best but with key pieces that could go down (or already did with Houston) just don't see it. Oakland has improved vastly (now just time to field the paper) and San Diego should be better than last year at least.

Vikings... this is tough. They have a great young defense but Peterson has GOT to wear down (right?)... and Chicago/Green Bay are improved. Former because of offseason moves and White+Floyd, latter because of the pieces coming back from injury and best QB in the league when 100%.

TEMPTED to make cases for Den/Pitts/Sea/Car (see below) but not sure who I'd replace them with and reasoning below...

The rest I keep trying to make cases for but barring injury it's really hard to.

Denver - TEMPTED but they have the D. Sanchez has made playoffs before with a D and they retained their RB. Okung is an upgrade if he's healthy and I expect Miller to play for Denver next year (they'll work something out).

Cincy - Played too well prior to Dalton's injury and Sanu sucks anyway lol. They didn't really lose anything, still sport one of the best OLs in the league and various people on the hot seat will leave them hungry.

Houston - Just a crap division. Houston has by far the best D thanks to Watt and crew. Osweiler is actually coming into a BETTER situation considering the division.

Seattle - REALLY actually wanted to list my team in the wont make it.. but Seattle just has too much talent. Kam/Bennett are playing for contracts as well. Their contracts aren't up, but they're playing for extensions and Bennett has one more shot at a big one, so the last TWO years may be important for a few extra mil.

GB - Best QB in the league when 100%. Riddled with injuries last year. Don't see how they don't win the division.

NE - Until Brady actually gets hit more than twice a game and Bill collapses into himself, can't put them here... despite a good Bills team.

Pitts - TEMPTED to put them on here... but they've improved their D and best O in the game at the moment. Made it happen even without Ben for some games and banged up for others.

Carolina - TEMPTED to put them on the list but the AFC South is a joke at the moment. They lost Norman but the front 7 dictates the entire game. If Cam goes back to his usual sulking ways and keeps wearing high heels and tight pants, maybe... In seriousness, if Carolina played in a GOOD division, I might just list them. Super Bowl losers have a track record of not returning...

Wash - I think they'll win this division again. Cousins appears to be the real deal and they fixed a secondary which was the sole reason that defense was ATROCIOUS last year. Norman helps, but moving Hall to FS is huge and Cravans should immediately start. Believe their other starting CB also was injured last year. That's an entirely revamped and GOOD crew.

Arizona - Too much talent on D. All depends if Palmer stays alive but could say that with any team. As of NOW he's healthy and so is the entire team so this is obvious.

Very good well thought out post. Definitely a lot of teams like you that I would be tempted to put on the list but really at this point the league does seem a bit top heavy where unless serious injuries happen the top-8 in the league for the most part stay the same.

One that I would add to the list that won't make it though would be Houston. I think the AFC South will be a bit tougher this year and with them playing a 1st place schedule I could see them taking on a few more losses while another team actually rises up to take them out. Houston's fate really lies in the hands of Osweiler. 9-7 in a weak division just won't be enough with the other teams catching up a bit.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Broncos
Patriots
Bengals
Texans
Chiefs
Steelers

Panthers
Cardinals
Vikings
'Skins
Packers
Seahawks

Gonna flip flop the Vikings and Packers from an earlier pick. Keep changing my mind on who wins that division. Kind of thinking the talent departure in Cincy along with Hue Jackson (imo, one of the brightest offensive minds in the game) will hurt them and put them closer to the field. Not sure if Denver's defense will be quite as good as it was last year- even great will be a noticeable downgrade from where they were.

Texans and Chiefs should get plenty of pressure from inside their divisions as well, but I am leaning towards each of them winning the division as I did earlier in the offseason. Even if it is them winning the division on a tentative basis. With the offseason being in its doldrums... why not?

To expand on my OP

I actually have the Patriots starting a somewhat ghastly 1-3, during Brady's absence, probably costing the Pats a bye, but the Bills, Dolphins, and Jets just aren't much better, if at all, than mediocre when it comes down to it. Brady meanwhile, is still Brady. No reason to have them miss the playoffs unless Brady tears an ACL playing pickup hoops.

Steelers still have Brown, Bell, Williams, and Wheaton. With Big Ben at the wheel- I wouldn't overthink this one too much. Maybe they stumble to the WC if things go wrong, but playoffs seem like a reasonable expectation for the Steelers.

Panthers. MVP. Bad division. Division on a platter.

So long as Palmer doesn't have a significant injury early in the season, the Cards are too talented to miss. It's true Palmer has had two pretty significant injuries (one to his knee, one to his hand) for QB's in the past two years, but predicting injuries is pretty cat and mouse. Stanton won games two years ago...

Seattle has Wilson and an excellent defense- no need to overthink this either.

 

[Thruthefog]

Vikings

 

[ATL96Steeler]

I'm going to do it in reverse and see whose left.

AFCE...NE...even with the schedule makers giving them 3 home games of the 1st 4, NE starts out 2-2 w/o Brady...don't trust Osweiler to go into Foxborough and win, but they still look like an 11 win team so they win the E. BUF looks a little better right now than the Jets but both have the talent to go 9-7.

AFCN...I think PIT overcomes Bryant at WR and the young DEF is faster, if they can figure out BAL at least once this yr...they look like a 11 win team also...CIN...lost a lot more so I think they take a small step back 9-7 top side 10-6

AFCS...I think IND bounces back to take that DIV...HOU has a lot of talent, but they will find Osweiler is maybe a yr away from being consistent enough to win on the road...9-7...does JAX and TN really factor...idk to be honest, but they should be in the 6-8 win area.

AFCW...I'm going KC here to win it and OAK to be runner up, maybe tied with DEN but none look a lot better to 10 win teams.

So...the AFC is looking to stack a lot of 9-7 type teams so not really ready to wade thru tie breakers yet, I think DEN, HOU are the odd teams out.

NFCE...I think DAL (if healthy) win the DIV...with everyone else stacked around 8 to 9 wins.

NFCN...Maybe GB flips and takes the DIV, but MIN is still on the uptick

NFCS...CAR...but maybe ATL rebounds to a 9 win team and maybe even TB

NFCW...AZ defends...I'm not certain SEA has the firepower to win 10 games without Graham and no Beastmode...the ATL game will make or break both teams I think.

I think WAS is the lone NFC team that doesn't come back.

 

[JMR]

I'm not certain SEA has the firepower to win 10 games without Graham and no Beastmode...

Good call. The offense came to a grinding halt 2nd half of last season when they were hurt.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

Good call. The offense came to a grinding halt 2nd half of last season when they were hurt.

Graham is projected to be back, but the injury he's returning from I understand is a game changer...not many have been successful returning.

In both conferences I foresee a stock pile of 9-7 type teams....the team that can win those key conference games will have the tie breakers in their back pocket.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

Very good well thought out post. Definitely a lot of teams like you that I would be tempted to put on the list but really at this point the league does seem a bit top heavy where unless serious injuries happen the top-8 in the league for the most part stay the same.

One that I would add to the list that won't make it though would be Houston. I think the AFC South will be a bit tougher this year and with them playing a 1st place schedule I could see them taking on a few more losses while another team actually rises up to take them out. Houston's fate really lies in the hands of Osweiler. 9-7 in a weak division just won't be enough with the other teams catching up a bit.

AFC...I think we could see BUF, NYJ, MIA, DEN, CIN, OAK, HOU, BAL, maybe even JAX all around that 9-7 record...I'm really curious to see what BAL does...I think it will be a longer road back than most expect...especially on DEF, but a team/coach with a winning pedigree.

 

[cdumler7]

AFC...I think we could see BUF, NYJ, MIA, DEN, CIN, OAK, HOU, BAL, maybe even JAX all around that 9-7 record...I'm really curious to see what BAL does...I think it will be a longer road back than most expect...especially on DEF, but a team/coach with a winning pedigree.

Obviously because so many teams look like they fall into that category it will come down to some head to head match ups and really the close games of who can pull out the tough grind it out games. It is why I give the Broncos such a big chance because they really proved themselves last year to just keep fighting to the very end and know if they are in it at the end they will find a way to win.

And Baltimore yeah not sure what to expect. A lot of key names coming off some serious injuries. They have some age issues that make me question how much some of those key players can actually bounce back. And then there is Flacco. We have seen the very good but we have also seen a lot more of the average QB play from him. He really needs to step up if they are going to stand a chance. I could see them clear at the 5-11 mark once again up to the 10-6 area. They have a great coaching staff which is why I give them a shot at having that much improvement but talent wise I just don't think they are where they have been in the past.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

Obviously because so many teams look like they fall into that category it will come down to some head to head match ups and really the close games of who can pull out the tough grind it out games. It is why I give the Broncos such a big chance because they really proved themselves last year to just keep fighting to the very end and know if they are in it at the end they will find a way to win.

And Baltimore yeah not sure what to expect. A lot of key names coming off some serious injuries. They have some age issues that make me question how much some of those key players can actually bounce back. And then there is Flacco. We have seen the very good but we have also seen a lot more of the average QB play from him. He really needs to step up if they are going to stand a chance. I could see them clear at the 5-11 mark once again up to the 10-6 area. They have a great coaching staff which is why I give them a shot at having that much improvement but talent wise I just don't think they are where they have been in the past.

DEN...I'm more on the negative only because the road is so tough for the DEF champ...you're every team's measuring stick and unless your talent is just superior it's tough to face that intensity for 16 weeks. Idk if just playing mistake free from the QB spot and let the DEF carry them will be good enough this yr...Sanchez is going to have to make plays downfield...they get tested week 1 with the rematch...that will be a telling game...if they win that one, and go no worse than 2-2 thru 4...I can see them breaking thru and winning 10 games.

BAL...me either. They have an innate ability to rise up vs PIT. I'd be happy with a split there honestly, but overall I'm not sure about the them...mostly DEF...probably will start a rookie LT, but I think they will play better on OFC with a stocked TE position and Flacco back with the old man at WR...but on DEF...they've been so good on the front 7, especially DL/OLB and that's somewhat in question now. D'ville says he's back, but a yr older, and Suggs coming off another Achilles...I think 10 wins would be the ceiling, but I'm not expecting that many.

 

[cdumler7]

DEN...I'm more on the negative only because the road is so tough for the DEF champ...you're every team's measuring stick and unless your talent is just superior it's tough to face that intensity for 16 weeks. Idk if just playing mistake free from the QB spot and let the DEF carry them will be good enough this yr...Sanchez is going to have to make plays downfield...they get tested week 1 with the rematch...that will be a telling game...if they win that one, and go no worse than 2-2 thru 4...I can see them breaking thru and winning 10 games.

BAL...me either. They have an innate ability to rise up vs PIT. I'd be happy with a split there honestly, but overall I'm not sure about the them...mostly DEF...probably will start a rookie LT, but I think they will play better on OFC with a stocked TE position and Flacco back with the old man at WR...but on DEF...they've been so good on the front 7, especially DL/OLB and that's somewhat in question now. D'ville says he's back, but a yr older, and Suggs coming off another Achilles...I think 10 wins would be the ceiling, but I'm not expecting that many.

I understand the hesitation with the Broncos. I go back and forth depending on my mood of what they will be. I can see this being a tough year with trying to get the QB position figured out hoping that our rookie develops and our defense while still being good could take a step back. I also though see some great positives like the OL looks to be in much better shape than the crap we put out there last year. The RB group looks in better shape with Anderson and Hillman now in year 2 of the ZBS and Booker looking like a promising rookie. They still have a great WR core for any QB to lean on. So I think there are some great weapons on both sides of the ball. I also do think because we will lean so heavily on the Running game that QB wise while it is important can still be minimized just a bit. They still have to perform at least some but I don't see the Broncos needing to be carried by one like Brady carries the Patriots offense or Rodgers for the Packers.

And as for Baltimore I guess for me I see holes on both sides of the ball. WR wise some major question marks and TE's that have struggled to stay healthy. RB wise nobody that will really scare teams. And Flacco coming off a serious injury and well being a guy that I just don't think has shown he can really take his team to victory with consistency without great playmakers around him. I just don't like the talent they have but like I said FO and coaching wise is where they seem to rise above the talent level. I have them at 7-9 this year but like I said very wide range of things I could see working out for them or completely imploding on them.

 

[Clayton]

I feel like this should be looked at based on what teams in their division can dethrone these guys.

Washington probably only has Dallas. Houston probably only has Jacksonville. Carolina...nobody. Denver and Kc probably have to worry about every team in their division but only if things go wrong. New England probably just has to worry about Buffalo imo.

Minnesota is the only one I'm picking

 

[ATL96Steeler]

I understand the hesitation with the Broncos. I go back and forth depending on my mood of what they will be. I can see this being a tough year with trying to get the QB position figured out hoping that our rookie develops and our defense while still being good could take a step back. I also though see some great positives like the OL looks to be in much better shape than the crap we put out there last year. The RB group looks in better shape with Anderson and Hillman now in year 2 of the ZBS and Booker looking like a promising rookie. They still have a great WR core for any QB to lean on. So I think there are some great weapons on both sides of the ball. I also do think because we will lean so heavily on the Running game that QB wise while it is important can still be minimized just a bit. They still have to perform at least some but I don't see the Broncos needing to be carried by one like Brady carries the Patriots offense or Rodgers for the Packers.

And as for Baltimore I guess for me I see holes on both sides of the ball. WR wise some major question marks and TE's that have struggled to stay healthy. RB wise nobody that will really scare teams. And Flacco coming off a serious injury and well being a guy that I just don't think has shown he can really take his team to victory with consistency without great playmakers around him. I just don't like the talent they have but like I said FO and coaching wise is where they seem to rise above the talent level. I have them at 7-9 this year but like I said very wide range of things I could see working out for them or completely imploding on them.

BAL...I'm in line with this thinking and hopeful PIT is not one of the 7...lol

I think Harbaugh kind of has Tomlin's number right now....I'd love to see the Steelers return the sweep this yr.

DEN...we'll see how they fare...I still see them in the playoff mix, but maybe not at the top of it. KC is not super strong imo, but a bit more settled...OAK we've chatted about more than once...their biggest challenge imo will playing with expectations...not many in the organization really has any experience doing that.

NFC...I see almost as many 9-7 type teams here...PHI, WAS, NYG, ATL, SEA, maybe CHI, NO and TB which ones will break thru?

 

[ATL96Steeler]

I feel like this should be looked at based on what teams in their division can dethrone these guys.

Washington probably only has Dallas. Houston probably only has Jacksonville. Carolina...nobody. Denver and Kc probably have to worry about every team in their division but only if things go wrong. New England probably just has to worry about Buffalo imo.

Minnesota is the only one I'm picking

CIN still has a lot of talent, but they lose the OC, who many feel got the most of Dalton, both WR 2 & 3, Eifert has a broken foot trying to get back, Burfict misses the 1st 3 gms...PIT has a good chance to over take them.

 

[Clayton]

CIN still has a lot of talent, but they lose the OC, who many feel got the most of Dalton, both WR 2 & 3, Eifert has a broken foot trying to get back, Burfict misses the 1st 3 gms...PIT has a good chance to over take them.

CIN is always losing an OC or a DC.

Eifert is a big deal, though. The problem I have is that the Browns have a sketchy roster and the Ravens could possibly be even worse.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

CIN is always losing an OC or a DC.

Eifert is a big deal, though. The problem I have is that the Browns have a sketchy roster and the Ravens could possibly be even worse.

For me when they lost DC's in the past, they still had Lewis to hold the ship together. I am not really enamored with Gruden as I am Hue, but if Andy Dalton regresses to bleh as a QB, they're really behind the 8 ball. We'll have to see though.