Eagles Move up to the #2 Pick

[Hornsstampede2.0]

Franchise quarterbacks DEFINE decades.
You should always risk everything for the chance to get a franchise QB.

Sure, it costs a lot.....but the gamble is 100% worth it the risk for the potential payoff.
Sometime you get an Eli Manning ...... sometimes you get an RG3 when you trade away the farm to move up.

Risky? yes.
Worth the risk? also yes

It doesn't make sense for any other position, but it does make sense for a QB.

 

[Across The Field]

Franchise quarterbacks DEFINE decades.
You should always risk everything for the chance to get a franchise QB.

Sure, it costs a lot.....but the gamble is 100% worth it the risk for the potential payoff.
Sometime you get an Eli Manning ...... sometimes you get an RG3 when you trade away the farm to move up.

Risky? yes.
Worth the risk? also yes

It doesn't make sense for any other position, but it does make sense for a QB.

That Eli trade wasn't near as severe in terms of compensation when you compare to the STL trade, and was also less than the Philly trade. That's also just about the only example of a time when one of these trades has worked out. Eli and Rivers were much better prospects than Goff or Wentz.

If this was a situation of an Andrew Luck-caliber prospect that would be one thing. That is not the situation though.

 

[Hornsstampede2.0]

I look around and see the same freaking teams over and over in the playoffs...

And every damn one has a franchise visible quarterback leader.

The teams that are constantly sucking ass don't have a franchise quarterback.

Even if the chances are 100/1 against, it is worth the risk every time for that one time you hit the jackpot.

 

[Iggloo]

For your amusement:

 

[sooner4life130]

I'm gonna laugh my ass off if Sam Bradford has a stellar year. Could happen. They improved the line and brought in Reuben Randle whom I like a lot.

 

[J-Rod]

For your amusement:

I was done within the first 3 seconds. Dude is hilarious.

 

[Manster7588]

I wonder how many Eagle fans are now missing Kelly?

 

[The Oldtimer]

That Eli trade wasn't near as severe in terms of compensation when you compare to the STL trade, and was also less than the Philly trade. That's also just about the only example of a time when one of these trades has worked out. Eli and Rivers were much better prospects than Goff or Wentz.

If this was a situation of an Andrew Luck-caliber prospect that would be one thing. That is not the situation though.

Why do you say that Eli and Rivers were much better prospect than Goff or Wentz?

 

[Manster7588]

Great, great move for the Browns!

I think the Chargers are now excited about getting calls for their pick at No. 3!

49ers on line one.

 

[Manster7588]

You all are missing on this:

They moved up to take Elliot! They didn't want to risk missing out on him so they moved up to take the RB!

Then it's a bigger bone head mistake, if which I fully support.

 

[Across The Field]

Why do you say that Eli and Rivers were much better prospect than Goff or Wentz?

Rivers and Eli were widely considered two of the best overall prospects in the entire 20o4 draft, regardless of position. They weren't the "once in a generation" kind of QBs like Andrew Luck or Peyton Manning, but they were pretty much can't miss guys. Goff and Wentz, on the other hand, would have both been at best 3 and 4 among QBs if this was last year's class. It's a down year for QB talent, so they're getting over-valued.

 

[The Oldtimer]

Rivers and Eli were widely considered two of the best overall prospects in the entire 20o4 draft, regardless of position. They weren't the "once in a generation" kind of QBs like Andrew Luck or Peyton Manning, but they were pretty much can't miss guys. Goff and Wentz, on the other hand, would have both been at best 3 and 4 among QBs if this was last year's class. It's a down year for QB talent, so they're getting over-valued.

Well the NFL scouts don't seem to think it's a down year for NFL QB prospects. Why do you think that Goff or Wentz are over-valued? Don't you think that the NFL scouts know more than you or I?

 

[Rockinkuwait]

Rivers and Eli were widely considered two of the best overall prospects in the entire 20o4 draft, regardless of position. They weren't the "once in a generation" kind of QBs like Andrew Luck or Peyton Manning, but they were pretty much can't miss guys. Goff and Wentz, on the other hand, would have both been at best 3 and 4 among QBs if this was last year's class. It's a down year for QB talent, so they're getting over-valued.

Well Fitz was by far the top prospect. Sean Taylor was probably most everyones #2 regardless of position. Gallery and pre workout Mike Williams. Many had Winslow, Big Ben and Roy Williams over Rivers too.

 

[Rockinkuwait]

I'm gonna laugh my ass off if Sam Bradford has a stellar year. Could happen. They improved the line and brought in Reuben Randle whom I like a lot.

That would be awesome... Absolutely awesome if we got great QB play next year. Kinda like SD having to choose between Brees and Rivers. Sounds a LOT better than trying to decide between Foles and Sanchez or something.

 

[flyerhawk]

I look around and see the same freaking teams over and over in the playoffs...

And every damn one has a franchise visible quarterback leader.

The teams that are constantly sucking ass don't have a franchise quarterback.

Even if the chances are 100/1 against, it is worth the risk every time for that one time you hit the jackpot.

The problem is that high draft picks only have a marginally better chance of being really good than guys you can get down the line.

And giving up an entire draft of players for one of those players usually offsets the value of getting that player.

 

[chf]

Even if the chances are 100/1 against, it is worth the risk every time for that one time you hit the jackpot.

File in the 'I don't have a firm grasp of statistics' folder.

 

[Rockinkuwait]

The problem is that high draft picks only have a marginally better chance of being really good than guys you can get down the line.

And giving up an entire draft of players for one of those players usually offsets the value of getting that player.

It is so tough to say that though when you look at the production by round. There was a study a few years ago, based on 20 years...

237 QB's drafted, 49 were in the first round. They accounted for 86 of the 133 playoff wins by those QB's. That's 65% of those playoff wins by 20% of the QB's... Brady really throws some of their numbers off, of the other 47 playoff wins, he had 18 of them at the time.

Really only the 6th round stood up to the first round in stats and play, again, Brady making up most of that success.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | NFL Draft: Round-by-Round QB Study

It's tough when you look down on that at the good vs. bad. Yes you can still find a great QB later, but there are a LOT of failures for every one that succeeds.

And the top of the top does appear better. Not just "marginally", but really significantly.

I know pro-bowl appearances aren't perfect. But in the QB's taken since 1990....

1-5 overall 60 Pro Bowls
6-10 overall 1 pro bowl.

1-5 1st round... 8 QB's with 200 TD's, 13 with winning records (min 60 games).
6-32 1st round... 3 QB's with 200 TD's, 5 with winning records (min 60 games, sorry Tebow).

In fact, 1-5 have make up 48% of the first round picks, but 81% of the 1st round pro-bowl appearances, 72% of the 200 TD guys, and 72% of the long term winners.

Is it worth moving up from 8 to 2? Only of course if it works out... But the numbers show that you are a LOT more likely to get a better QB there. And I have no idea giving up a lot if you are increasing those chances.

It is AWESOME when you can get a guy like Wilson in the 3rd round. But in the past 25 years, who's the next best 3rd round QB? Schaub? Foles? Griese? Is it 1 playoff win between the other 30 QB's there? About every quarter century you get one who can win you playoff games?

 

[Iggloo]

I wonder how many Eagle fans are now missing Kelly?

Seriously, none. Deerpath Dave is the only one I know of.

 

[Iggloo]

I'm gonna laugh my ass off if Sam Bradford has a stellar year. Could happen. They improved the line and brought in Reuben Randle whom I like a lot.

"Since 2010, 20 quarterbacks have attempted at least 2,000 passes. Among that group, Bradford ranks last in passer rating, yards per attempt and touchdowns. He's been afforded every excuse in the book, but expecting him to suddenly be a different guy after six seasons and 63 starts would be foolish."

What's trending in the NFL: Eagles move up to No. 2; Josh Norman is now a free agent

 

[Across The Field]

Well Fitz was by far the top prospect. Sean Taylor was probably most everyones #2 regardless of position. Gallery and pre workout Mike Williams. Many had Winslow, Big Ben and Roy Williams over Rivers too.

Fitz was the top prospect, but not "by far". And both Eli and Rivers were both rated higher than either Goff or Wentz. For example, according to ESPN this year, both Goff and Wentz grade out at a 91, which is out of the top 10 overall prospect rankings. In 2004, Eli rated as a 98, while Rivers was a 95.