2016 Rosterbation

[LHG]

I think Biagini is a pretty big stretch. This is his best year (by far) since he's been in the org, and he's had some real stinkers. And this year his K/9 went *down* considerably, to below 6. I'd be surprised if they protected him. I also think that Ben Turner is a massive reach as well (unless he's a *great* receiver). He's never had an OPS over .699, and he was promoted to Sac from SJ mid-year. He doesn't hit for power, and since they promoted Trevor Brown yesterday, I think that's a pretty good indication of who the 3rd catcher on the 40-man is going to be next year.

I would be not at all surprised if either Agosta or Forjet (or both) are added to the 40-man, even though both were in SJ this season. I also wouldn't be surprised to see either leave as part of a trade to get a major leaguer.

But you don't mention that both Forjet and Biagini are 25 years old. Biagini has improved each level he's pitched at, in terms of WHIP (except from first to second year). Forjet was 2.6 years older than others in his league last year and 1.9 years older this year. I'd rather chose Biagini since he seems closer and has been closer to the median age of his league.

 

[MarcoPolo]

True. Valid points. I also hate giving *too* much credit to players who haven't spent much (or any) time in AA or AAA. I've found that the leap from A to AA is where many, many "good prospects" fail.

 

[MarcoPolo]

I've updated your list. It assumes that the players will spend almost the totality of the coming seasons with the Giants, and not in the minors, so the numbers I've added are a *guess*. In this 'updated' list, '??' means "who the F knows? = impossible to guess at this time" (although if they have less than 100 days of service time at then end of this season, the *earliest* it could possibly be is 2019 for their first arb year).

Controlled 40-man roster (options going into '16/Arb 1 year)

Panik (3/'18)
Adrianza (0/'17)
Duffy (3/'18)
Black (3/??)
Bochy (2/??)
Broadway (0/??)
Brown (3/??)
Gregorio (2/??)
Hall (2/??)
Heston (2/'18)
Law (2/??)
Noonan (0/??)
Osich (2/'18)
Parker (1/??)
Perez (0/'17)
Strickland (0/??)
Susac (2/'18)
Tomlinson (3/??)
Williams (2/??)
Williamson (3/??)

I think that's it's pretty clear that Panik will be our starting 2B, Duffy the starting 3B, and Susac the backup catcher for the foreseeable future (unless one flails miserably in the future). I also think that it's a 98% lock that Osich will be in our bullpen on opening day next year.

 

[MarcoPolo]

{snip} ...

Before signing any FAs or picking up any options, but before non-tenders, the 40-man has 35 players. That covers the "no-brainers". But if they want to protect Turner or Agosta, they will need to non-tender/DFA. I think they have the flexibility to do what they want with Sanchez, Gearrin, Broadway, Bochy, Noonan and Williams.

And Juan Perez - he has no options left and there's no reason to keep him. I'm pretty sure he'll be DFA'd or traded before the end of ST. With Pence, Pagan, Aoki, Blanco and Byrd there's no room in SF for him.

"Perez, the Ehire Adrianza of the outfield".

 

[calsnowskier]

My protection list was only looking at drafted players. However, we have quite a few Latin players that will likely be eligible for the Rule V as well.

Rando Moreno
Jesus Galindo
Jose Reyes (stretch)
Adalberto Mejia
Jose Casilla

I think Mejia and Moreno are near-locks.

 

[LHG]

My protection list was only looking at drafted players. However, we have quite a few Latin players that will likely be eligible for the Rule V as well.

Rando Moreno
Jesus Galindo
Jose Reyes (stretch)
Adalberto Mejia
Jose Casilla

I think Mejia and Moreno are near-locks.

I agree on Mejia but I think you are over estimating Moreno. His numbers weren't that good at Richmond and the Giants don't have a problem with depth in the middle infield in the farm system. I'd say he gets exposed. I doubt he gets drafted.

 

[calsnowskier]

I agree on Mejia but I think you are over estimating Moreno. His numbers weren't that good at Richmond and the Giants don't have a problem with depth in the middle infield in the farm system. I'd say he gets exposed. I doubt he gets drafted.

You may very well be right, but depth is not really a concern when adding to the 40-man, I think. If a player has value, you protect him. Just because I happen to have more $20 bills in my pocket that $5 bills does not mean that I will let you have an extra $20 instead of giving you a $5. Value is value. If they view Moreno as being a risk to be drafted, I think they will protect him, then trade him, or wait for a more opportune time to DFA him.

I am always surprised by protections at the Rule 5 time, though. There are always guys protected who were hardly on my radar, and there are always guys who I thought were no-brainers who are left unprotected.

 

[LHG]

You may very well be right, but depth is not really a concern when adding to the 40-man, I think. If a player has value, you protect him. Just because I happen to have more $20 bills in my pocket that $5 bills does not mean that I will let you have an extra $20 instead of giving you a $5. Value is value. If they view Moreno as being a risk to be drafted, I think they will protect him, then trade him, or wait for a more opportune time to DFA him.

I am always surprised by protections at the Rule 5 time, though. There are always guys protected who were hardly on my radar, and there are always guys who I thought were no-brainers who are left unprotected.

I'm not sure that's always how an organization looks at adding to the 40 man roster. I think depth does play into who they will protect, depending on the talent of the player. If this were Christian Arroyo, then I wouldn't doubt for a second the team would add him to the 40 man. However, someone more along the lines of Moreno, I think, would be considered a decent risk to slip through. I will admit that he did do exceptionally better at Richmond than he did last year, first at San Jose and then at Augusta (164 point difference in OPS!). Honestly, I was surprised he started above Augusta, even more so at Richmond! With that said, his numbers were not eye popping. His OPS wasn't much better than Myles Schroeder, a 27 year old utility man (who started his career 4 years after being drafted, but I digress). Unless he is a stellar defender, I still say he is safe from being picked up by another organization. The Giants have a lot of guys to decide who to protect. I think Moreno will not be one of them but will be playing at Sacramento in 2016 (barring Tomlinson returning to triple A).

 

[calsnowskier]

I'm not sure that's always how an organization looks at adding to the 40 man roster. I think depth does play into who they will protect, depending on the talent of the player. If this were Christian Arroyo, then I wouldn't doubt for a second the team would add him to the 40 man. However, someone more along the lines of Moreno, I think, would be considered a decent risk to slip through. I will admit that he did do exceptionally better at Richmond than he did last year, first at San Jose and then at Augusta (164 point difference in OPS!). Honestly, I was surprised he started above Augusta, even more so at Richmond! With that said, his numbers were not eye popping. His OPS wasn't much better than Myles Schroeder, a 27 year old utility man (who started his career 4 years after being drafted, but I digress). Unless he is a stellar defender, I still say he is safe from being picked up by another organization. The Giants have a lot of guys to decide who to protect. I think Moreno will not be one of them but will be playing at Sacramento in 2016 (barring Tomlinson returning to triple A).

Well, thats the rub on my argument.

Will another team take him?

The Giants may LOVE the kid, but feel safe that he will not be taken, so there is no reason to protect him. If the Giants love Moreno (I have no reason to think this, I am just stating it hypothetically), but feal that since he just finished AA with good (not great) numbers, no team is going to eat a year of his development by having him on the 25-man for a whole season, they will risk it. They did this with Strickland a few years back when he was still recovering from TJ and had not advanced past A+ yet (and had already been DFA'd by the Pirates and Giants without being claimed by anyone not located in SF)

 

[LHG]

Well, thats the rub on my argument.

Will another team take him?

The Giants may LOVE the kid, but feel safe that he will not be taken, so there is no reason to protect him. If the Giants love Moreno (I have no reason to think this, I am just stating it hypothetically), but feal that since he just finished AA with good (not great) numbers, no team is going to eat a year of his development by having him on the 25-man for a whole season, they will risk it. They did this with Strickland a few years back when he was still recovering from TJ and had not advanced past A+ yet (and had already been DFA'd by the Pirates and Giants without being claimed by anyone not located in SF)

cal, sorry if I'm being a butt with this argument. I respect your thoughts and have always enjoyed your take on the team and the farm. The Giants may have spots aplenty on the 40 man roster with all the pending free agents and the guys that are obvious candidates to be dfa'd at the end of the season (Williams and Noonan are two that come to mind immediately, as others have already pointed out). I wonder if the Giants will fill up many of those openings with guys from the farm or hold a few spots open for those gaps on the active roster they know that they will fill from major league free agency. Obviously, we can only guess.

 

[calsnowskier]

No need to apologize. We are talking. The point of my posts in these types of threads is so you guys can destroy my charts and prove me wrong. I don't learn by telling you guys my perfect plan. I learn by you guys telling my why my plan is imperfect.


Of course, you guys learn by me then telling you why you are full of shit and I was right all along anyway.

 

[Stokes1931]

No need to apologize. We are talking. The point of my posts in these types of threads is so you guys can destroy my charts and prove me wrong. I don't learn by telling you guys my perfect plan. I learn by you guys telling my why my plan is imperfect.


Of course, you guys learn by me then telling you why you are full of shit and I was right all along anyway.

Ah, the old "heads I win, tails you lose" approach. Works every time!

 

[tzill]

No need to apologize. We are talking. The point of my posts in these types of threads is so you guys can destroy my charts and prove me wrong. I don't learn by telling you guys my perfect plan. I learn by you guys telling my why my plan is imperfect.


Of course, you guys learn by me then telling you why you are full of shit and I was right all along anyway.

Which, of course, verifies that you are one of my alts.

 

[Mays-Fan]

OK, my first attempt at the 2016 budget.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$


SF Giants Payroll 2014

Numbers taken from COTS where available

Major Assumptions:

COTS has us at $173.2mm total for 2015. This, IMHO, should be adjusted to reflect only $3mm-ish for Leake, and only $1mm-ish for De Aza, our prorated share of their salaries. That reduces our 2015 obligation to Leake by $6mm, and De Aza’s by $4mm. So our baseline for 2015 was really about $163mm. Add 7% to that, and I think our budget is appx $174mm. Ish.

--------------------------------------------------------------

Starters (5)
Cain $20.8 fixed
Bum $10.0 fixed
Heston $0.5
Leake $15.0 re-sign
Peavy $15.0 fixed

# Starters Subtotal $61.3

Bullpen (7)
Romo $9.0 fixed
Casilla $7.5 re-signs
Lopez $5.0 fixed
Osich $0.5
Strickland $0.5
Petit $3.0 (Arb-3 WAG)
Kontos $0.5

# Bullpen Subtotal $26.0

C/IF (8)
Buster $20.8 fixed
Susac $0.5
Belt $5.0 Arb-3 WAG
Craw $5.0 Arb-2
Panik $0.5
Duffy $0.5
Tomlinson $0.5
Adrianza $0.5

# C/IF Subtotal $33.3

OF (5)
Pagan $11.3 fixed
Pence $18.5 fixed
Blanco $3.9 fixed
Byrd $8.0 vests
Aoki $5.0 re-sign

# OF Subtotal $46.7

Prelim Total $167.3 (25 players)

This allows appx $7.0mm for an acquisition at some point

 

[calsnowskier]

Casilla is on a club option. If he does not pitch again this year, the option is worth 5.5M. If he finishes 7 more games, the option is worth 6.5M.

Aoki's existing option is at 5.5M.

Assuming the rest of your numbers are right, and your math is good, that only changes your bottom line by .5M (Casilla will get to 55 GFs) to $166.8M.

And that ONLY adds Leake...

Yikes!

 

[tzill]

OK, my first attempt at the 2016 budget.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$


SF Giants Payroll 2014

Numbers taken from COTS where available

Major Assumptions:

COTS has us at $173.2mm total for 2015. This, IMHO, should be adjusted to reflect only $3mm-ish for Leake, and only $1mm-ish for De Aza, our prorated share of their salaries. That reduces our 2015 obligation to Leake by $6mm, and De Aza’s by $4mm. So our baseline for 2015 was really about $163mm. Add 7% to that, and I think our budget is appx $174mm. Ish.

--------------------------------------------------------------

Starters (5)
Cain $20.8 fixed
Bum $10.0 fixed
Heston $0.5
Leake $15.0 re-sign
Peavy $15.0 fixed

# Starters Subtotal $61.3

Bullpen (7)
Romo $9.0 fixed
Casilla $7.5 re-signs
Lopez $5.0 fixed
Osich $0.5
Strickland $0.5
Petit $3.0 (Arb-3 WAG)
Kontos $0.5

# Bullpen Subtotal $26.0

C/IF (8)
Buster $20.8 fixed
Susac $0.5
Belt $5.0 Arb-3 WAG
Craw $5.0 Arb-2
Panik $0.5
Duffy $0.5
Tomlinson $0.5
Adrianza $0.5

# C/IF Subtotal $33.3

OF (5)
Pagan $11.3 fixed
Pence $18.5 fixed
Blanco $3.9 fixed
Byrd $8.0 vests
Aoki $5.0 re-sign

# OF Subtotal $46.7

Prelim Total $167.3 (25 players)

This allows appx $7.0mm for an acquisition at some point

I think your assumptions are off. Specifically, Cots has our 2015 Opening Day roster # as $173.2MM. That was prior to Leake or De Aza. In the last 5 years, we've raised Opening Day payroll by 23, 11, 5, 9, and 16 percent, for an average of 12.8%. If we raise 2015 OD by 12.8%, we'd be at $195MM. I think that's a much more realistic number than your $174MM, which would be a 0% raise over 2015 OD. Even using your 7% figure, we'd be at $185, but I think that's a low estimate.

Heston: IMO, unlikely to break camp with the big club (barring injury) as I'm pretty sure they will get two FA starters, which puts him in Sacto as the #6 guy
Leake: $15 is about right, probably 5/75 -- they're going to keep him around for a while
Casilla: he will likely vest at $6.5MM
Petit: the more I think about it, the more likely he's gone and replaced by Broadway/Hall/Gerrin/Bochy/Okert/Rapada....you get the point.
Belt: I'd expect them to sign him to a 4/45 type contract where he gets 6/9/15/15
Craw: He'll get similar money to Belt on a 4/45 type deal.
EA: on the bubble, could be replaced by a $4M type FA, but I think he'll get every chance to make the club
Aoki: The club will pick up his $5.5MM option

So we're pretty close. My numbers (assuming a young arm replacing Petit, EA makes the team, and signing the two Brandons):
SP: 71 (four starters)
RP: 21
C: 21.5
IF: 14
OF: 47
TOTAL -- 174.5

Assuming an approx $195MM payroll, that leaves plenty for another starter, but not enough for an ace.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Casilla is on a club option. If he does not pitch again this year, the option is worth 5.5M. If he finishes 7 more games, the option is worth 6.5M.

Aoki's existing option is at 5.5M.

Assuming the rest of your numbers are right, and your math is good, that only changes your bottom line by .5M (Casilla will get to 55 GFs) to $166.8M.

And that ONLY adds Leake...

Yikes!

Thank you. I didn't know what the Aoki and Casilla club options were. I also took WAGs at Belt, Crawford, and Petit re arbitration. Obviously, the Leake re-sign is a WAG, as is of course the number.

I also think the $174mm budget is pretty conservative.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I think your assumptions are off. Specifically, Cots has our 2015 Opening Day roster # as $173.2MM. That was prior to Leake or De Aza. In the last 5 years, we've raised Opening Day payroll by 23, 11, 5, 9, and 16 percent, for an average of 12.8%. If we raise 2015 OD by 12.8%, we'd be at $195MM. I think that's a much more realistic number than your $174MM, which would be a 0% raise over 2015 OD. Even using your 7% figure, we'd be at $185, but I think that's a low estimate.

Heston: IMO, unlikely to break camp with the big club (barring injury) as I'm pretty sure they will get two FA starters, which puts him in Sacto as the #6 guy
Leake: $15 is about right, probably 5/75 -- they're going to keep him around for a while
Casilla: he will likely vest at $6.5MM
Petit: the more I think about it, the more likely he's gone and replaced by Broadway/Hall/Gerrin/Bochy/Okert/Rapada....you get the point.
Belt: I'd expect them to sign him to a 4/45 type contract where he gets 6/9/15/15
Craw: He'll get similar money to Belt on a 4/45 type deal.
EA: on the bubble, could be replaced by a $4M type FA, but I think he'll get every chance to make the club
Aoki: The club will pick up his $5.5MM option

So we're pretty close. My numbers (assuming a young arm replacing Petit, EA makes the team, and signing the two Brandons):
SP: 71 (four starters)
RP: 21
C: 21.5
IF: 14
OF: 47
TOTAL -- 174.5

Assuming an approx $195MM payroll, that leaves plenty for another starter, but not enough for an ace.

I see now you are correct re the OD salaries. They do not indeed include Leake or DeAza.

However, you have $71mm for four starters, presumably Cain/Bum/Leake/Peavy. That should only be $61mm. (Rounded, respectively, 21/10/15/15.)

So if $190 is the budget, and we are at $165, conservatively that is $25mm for acquisitions. That equates to a top-shelf pitcher. Or, if we don't re-sign Aoki, we have $30mm to get two high quality players, perhaps a SP and an OF. Or we could go with Heston as #5, and get a top-shelf closer and a quality OF.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I see now you are correct re the OD salaries. They do not indeed include Leake or DeAza.

However, you have $71mm for four starters, presumably Cain/Bum/Leake/Peavy. That should only be $61mm. (Rounded, respectively, 21/10/15/15.)

So if $190 is the budget, and we are at $165, conservatively that is $25mm for acquisitions. That equates to a top-shelf pitcher. Or, if we don't re-sign Aoki, we have $30mm to get two high quality players, perhaps a SP and an OF. Or we could go with Heston as #5, and get a top-shelf closer and a quality OF.

And then there is the Timmeh variable. If surgery is successful, and he is able to regain some velocity, perhaps the #5 is between Heston and Timmeh, and the FO feels that is sufficient. Perhaps we make a run at both Justin Upton and Jason Heyward.

2B Panik
RF Heyward
LF Pence
C Posey
CF Upton
1B Belt
SS Crawford
3B Duffy
P

 

[tzill]

I see now you are correct re the OD salaries. They do not indeed include Leake or DeAza.

However, you have $71mm for four starters, presumably Cain/Bum/Leake/Peavy. That should only be $61mm. (Rounded, respectively, 21/10/15/15.)

So if $190 is the budget, and we are at $165, conservatively that is $25mm for acquisitions. That equates to a top-shelf pitcher. Or, if we don't re-sign Aoki, we have $30mm to get two high quality players, perhaps a SP and an OF. Or we could go with Heston as #5, and get a top-shelf closer and a quality OF.

Thanks for the catch...I was off a cool $10MM. that would give us 25-30MM for acquisitions. I can't see us giving Greinke/Price/Cueto $200MM so I think we're more in on the Kazmir/Shark/Lackey/Zimm market.

I don't see us adding to the OF; we seem to be pretty deep there in 2016.