Is Baker Mayfield a Bust?

[eaglesnut]

How much would you pay for his rookie card?

 

[DJ]

He'll always be a douchebag but he can't be called a bust.

He's won a playoff games with two teams.

Yep.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

Absolutely. Just because they're are 9 teams with an immediate need for QB doesn't mean the 6 top rookies will go to 6 of those 9 teams. The Seahawks will be in play for a rookie QB. They may even be in play for a trade up to #2 or #3.

Wilson isn't more or less washed now than when he was a starter in Week 16. If a team is prepared to guarantee him $40M over 2 seasons the Broncos will be willing to let him go for 0 trade capital. If not he'll be cut...which looks likely. The question is will a team be willing to pay him $10-20M over 1 year and will Wilson be prepared to accept that 1 year deal which would mean him losing the vet minimum about back to the Broncos and not receiving the rest of the money until 2025. Personally if he'll play for $10-14M i'd make that deal over $30M for Mayfield in a heart beat. His willingness to sign a cheap deal will impact Mayfield's market.

Tannehill wasn't guaranteed the $27M he was scheduled to earn in 2023. The Titans chose to retain him. He performed badly and was injured. It comes down to what he is willing to sign for in 2024. If he is willing to sign for $7-11M i'd choose him over a big money deal for Mayfield.

To me it makes more sense to sign a placeholder, (which includes Wilson and Tannehill), and try for 1 of the #4-6 rookie QB group than it does to throw money at Mayfield.

You keep arguing this as if you're the GM. The idea is what will happen not what you would do.

Arguing from the perspective of "what you would do" guarantees you are never wrong lol.

But in terms of Tannenhill vs Baker...There is severe regression on Tanneys part the last 2 years.

 

[fastforward]

You keep arguing this as if you're the GM. The idea is what will happen not what you would do.

Arguing from the perspective of "what you would do" guarantees you are never wrong lol.

But in terms of Tannenhill vs Baker...There is severe regression on Tanneys part the last 2 years.

Would you prefer cold-blooded analysis of the situation or an ignorant emotional hot take? Your analysis of the situation is that Mayfield will be paid based on the market conditions of 2022. Good luck with that. Given the idiotic GM handling of 2 Wentz trades, the Ryan trade, and the 5th year option for Darnold the evidence suggests that you will be correct. If you turn out to be correct then congrats in advance. I don't care if a team pays Mayfield $30M or $15M. It's not a win or loss for me either way. Tannehill earned $29M and $27M for the last 2 seasons. I'm saying his 2024 market might be $7-11M. No shit there's some severe regression. There was regression in Wilson's performance over the 2 years before the Seahawks traded him. He has regressed further since then.

Let me be clear: I don't think Mayfield will get more than $20M in March because the players' values plus the supply and demand situation would make it a bad business decision. I don't think he signs for more than 1 year, (albeit he could sign a 1 year deal with void years as with his 2023 deal), because the market projects to bounce back in 2025 with multiple retirements and a weaker Draft.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

Would you prefer cold-blooded analysis of the situation or an ignorant emotional hot take? Your analysis of the situation is that Mayfield will be paid based on the market conditions of 2022. Good luck with that. Given the idiotic GM handling of 2 Wentz trades, the Ryan trade, and the 5th year option for Darnold the evidence suggests that you will be correct. If you turn out to be correct then congrats in advance. I don't care if a team pays Mayfield $30M or $15M. It's not a win or loss for me either way. Tannehill earned $29M and $27M for the last 2 seasons. I'm saying his 2024 market might be $7-11M. No shit there's some severe regression. There was regression in Wilson's performance over the 2 years before the Seahawks traded him. He has regressed further since then.

Let me be clear: I don't think Mayfield will get more than $20M in March because the players' values plus the supply and demand situation would make it a bad business decision. I don't think he signs for more than 1 year, (albeit he could sign a 1 year deal with void years as with his 2023 deal), because the market projects to bounce back in 2025 with multiple retirements and a weaker Draft.

we will see how it lands

I know you're never in the NBA threads (and I appreciate your analysis on this) but it's more the lens we discuss those things in...I wouldn't trade 3 first round picks for Pascal Siakam but that is what happened. Just as an example.

 

[redskinsfan1963]

i bet the bucs resign him.

 

[belcherboy]

i bet the bucs resign him.

I agree, but I see it being a short contract. I could see them throwing a Cousins type offer at him, fully guaranteeing it. I've said it earlier, but 2 years $60-65 million fully guaranteed could be the landing zone. With the weakness of their division, and the salary cap rising, this would be a comfortable amount of money with little to no risk for TB. Even if he flames out next year, they're drafting a high end rookie with the draft pick in next year's draft. If he takes them to the playoffs again, then you've continued in making them competitive.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

Absolutely. Just because they're are 9 teams with an immediate need for QB doesn't mean the 6 top rookies will go to 6 of those 9 teams. The Seahawks will be in play for a rookie QB. They may even be in play for a trade up to #2 or #3.

Wilson isn't more or less washed now than when he was a starter in Week 16. If a team is prepared to guarantee him $40M over 2 seasons the Broncos will be willing to let him go for 0 trade capital. If not he'll be cut...which looks likely. The question is will a team be willing to pay him $10-20M over 1 year and will Wilson be prepared to accept that 1 year deal which would mean him losing the vet minimum about back to the Broncos and not receiving the rest of the money until 2025. Personally if he'll play for $10-14M i'd make that deal over $30M for Mayfield in a heart beat. His willingness to sign a cheap deal will impact Mayfield's market.

Tannehill wasn't guaranteed the $27M he was scheduled to earn in 2023. The Titans chose to retain him. He performed badly and was injured. It comes down to what he is willing to sign for in 2024. If he is willing to sign for $7-11M i'd choose him over a big money deal for Mayfield.

To me it makes more sense to sign a placeholder, (which includes Wilson and Tannehill), and try for 1 of the #4-6 rookie QB group than it does to throw money at Mayfield.

I totally agree with most of that. I just don't see where Tampa has a lot of options. They aren't really in a position where a trade up to draft someone is an option and everything you are saying about Russ is spot on but the big if in that is what is Russ willing to settle for. Fwiw, I think Baker is an upgrade over Russ anyway but it's splitting hairs when we are talking about guys holding a place. I question whether Russ is willing to accept his fate as a lower tier temporary starter. I just don't think he has it in him but who knows for sure. I can't see them thinking Trask is any long term answer either but I could be wrong there.
As for Tannehill, some may disagree but I think he is no more than a solid back-up for the rest of his career. Maybe he gets another shot but the one thing this season has taught us is that a reliable back-up is crucial. A lot of guys have had good twilights to their career in that role.
I do see a scenario where Baker and Tampa come up with a similar contract to what Geno Smith got last year but with a bump in dollars. Tampa will likely want to give themselves an out and if it's a 3 year deal, the 3rd year is pretty much meaningless anyway. Less guaranteed, incentive laden that keeps their options open after year one and two.

 

[fastforward]

I totally agree with most of that. I just don't see where Tampa has a lot of options. They aren't really in a position where a trade up to draft someone is an option and everything you are saying about Russ is spot on but the big if in that is what is Russ willing to settle for. Fwiw, I think Baker is an upgrade over Russ anyway but it's splitting hairs when we are talking about guys holding a place. I question whether Russ is willing to accept his fate as a lower tier temporary starter. I just don't think he has it in him but who knows for sure. I can't see them thinking Trask is any long term answer either but I could be wrong there.
As for Tannehill, some may disagree but I think he is no more than a solid back-up for the rest of his career. Maybe he gets another shot but the one thing this season has taught us is that a reliable back-up is crucial. A lot of guys have had good twilights to their career in that role.
I do see a scenario where Baker and Tampa come up with a similar contract to what Geno Smith got last year but with a bump in dollars. Tampa will likely want to give themselves an out and if it's a 3 year deal, the 3rd year is pretty much meaningless anyway. Less guaranteed, incentive laden that keeps their options open after year one and two.

I agree that after Cousins Mayfield is the best of the bunch. The problem is that losing in the Divisional round is probably the ceiling for any team with Mayfield at QB. There's an argument for spending a lot less on a placeholder, spending the difference on starting roster upgrades, and be able to take a punt on the Draft. It's harder to justify a high pick on a QB if you've just signed a big money FA to a multi-year guarantee.

Smith's 2022 season was considerably better than Mayfield's 2023 season.

 

[shopson67]

My opinion of Mayfield improved after his time with the Rams. Won them a couple of games and will now likely net them a compensatory 5th rounder in the draft. Sweet.

 

[fastforward]

My opinion of Mayfield improved after his time with the Rams. Won them a couple of games and will now likely net them a compensatory 5th rounder in the draft. Sweet.

This might end up being a 6th round pick. The original data used by OTC projected Mayfield at $6.5M. That might be accurate with bonuses but the base figure looks to be $4M. Either the Rams get a 5th & 3 X 6ths or they get 4 X 6ths.

Ironically if the Buccaneers re-sign Mayfield they'll lose out on a 3rd round compensatory pick.

 

[broncosmitty]

How much would you pay for his rookie card?

I would even put it in my bike spokes.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

 

[Stakesarehigh]

I was so right I'm wrong at the same time lol

 

[fastforward]

If he does then good luck to him. He's a bog standard QB in a buyer's market. GMs, (and an owner in Indianapolis), do make bad decisions and it normally ends up with the GMs being fired.

 

[DJ]

LMAO.

What a bunch of us have said.

 

[DJ]

I was saying Geno money. And he is likely getting more.

 

[DJ]

If he does then good luck to him. He's a bog standard QB in a buyer's market.

You were so convinced he was getting 20mill per.

 

[PDay8810]

You were so convinced he was getting 20mill per.

i had him at an average of 25M per but I guess he's as good as Prescott.

we'll see

 

[fastforward]

You were so convinced he was getting 20mill per.

I'm convinced that's all he's worth in the current market.

I don't see a big difference between Wilson and Mayfield. If Wilson is worth $20M per season then he's worth trading for. If he's not worth $20M to another team then the Broncos will cut him. If he's not worth $20M then how is Mayfield worth $40M? On the flip side of the coin if Mayfield is worth $40M then how is Wilson not worth $30M, and why would the Broncos be talking about cutting him? I figure most of the player stories are down to agents trying to inflate interest in their clients. We'll see what happens, but ultimately market analysis won't mean a thing. If a GM is prepared to overpay for someone then that move temporarily sets the market, but there's a limited supply of GMs willing to make high-risk, low-reward moves. Cousins > Garoppolo > Smith > Mayfield > Wilson.