2018 NBA offseason

[tlance]

that at least keeps flexibility open....but there are some major issues with those 1 year deals.

Take the Lakers for instance. You have Rondo, Stephenseon, Beasley, KCP, McGee all on 1 year deals. All of those guys know they are not in the Lakers long term plans- the Lakers have pretty much said as much publicly. All of those guys know the Lakers will be trying to get a major free agent and that they are little more than stop-gaps for the short term.

When you do not have a contract for next year, you are literally playing for livelihood. Stats matter, playing time matters. All of a sudden you have guys worrying about their next contract rather than what is best for the team. You think that Lance Stephenson is going to be a big brother to Josh Hart and sacrifice for the good of the team when he does not know where he is going to playing next year but is almost certain it wont be for the Lakers?

That is a valid point.

However, in the era of advanced metrics, the good front offices are smart enough to recognize a players' actual contributions. Efficiency and defense matter a lot. If guys are making bad decisions to improve their stat lines, it usually shows in the advanced stats.

 

[shopson67]

That is a valid point.

However, in the era of advanced metrics, the good front offices are smart enough to recognize a players' actual contributions. Efficiency and defense matter a lot. If guys are making bad decisions to improve their stat lines, it usually shows in the advanced stats.

Besides, if Lance acts up, he gone. Move on and add another depth player to replace him on the roster.

 

[WiggyRuss]

As of right now. I disagree. All Sexton really has is a relatively strong showing in the same summer league that "the young point guard Lebron joined in LA that cannot shoot or stay healthy" was MVP of last year.

As for not staying healthy, shows what you don't know. Had last season been about winning or if the Lakers were in the playoff hunt, he likely plays in more games. The Lakers were cautious with both he and Ingram last year.

And before you start your prp bullshit. That was initially done as an attempt to prevent surgery (much like players resting some injuries before settling on surgery).

Pretty funny how your hypocrisy is showing. When Kyrie was in Cleveland and folks brought up his injury issues, you tried to paint him as some kind of iron man.

He leaves and he's suddenly injury prone. A young player on a team that you don't like has an injury that isn't even all that severe by todays standards and he's suddenly injury prone after 1 season.

when Kyrie was in Cleveland he had 1 knee surgery and everything was fluky or relatively minor besides that one procedure.

Now he has had 3 knee surgeries on the same knee and its clear its not an issue that will ever return to 100%.

What do I KNOW? I know that there is no such thing as minor knee surgery for an NBA player, and if you are having knee surgery at the age of 20, before the years of pounding and wear and tear are put on your knee that you experience in the NBA from constantly cutting and jumping and running, you are starting your career in a precarious position. I guess we will see how it goes this year. Me? I would be surprised if Ball plays in 60 games. If you want to use that as an over/under (60) for a bet I am game.

 

[WiggyRuss]

No, the league has to readjust.

I understand that guys like Kemba are going to make that kind of money.

But, because of max contracts, when a player like LeBron is making 40 and Kemba is getting 35, the team paying Kemba has no shot unless they also have another superstar or 2. Because LeBron is about 8x more valuable in terms of generating wins and he is only making 12-15% more.

The single biggest problem with NBA finances today is that the market value for players like Conley is 85-100% of what the true superstars are getting. That has to change somehow.

Its that way because you cant pay LeBron his market rate of what would be at LEAST 60M a year. All that extra money swimming around has to go somewhere. It usually goes to the great but not elite players like Kemba- by, as you said, them getting paid 85% of what the true superstars make.

When you look at what players like McCollum, Conley, Porter, Holiday, Wiggins, Wall, etc. make- the starting point for a Kemba contract will be more than what Holiday and Porter make- but less than what Wall makes--- which puts him right where I expect him to be- somewhere between say 30-35M a year.

 

[shopson67]

when Kyrie was in Cleveland he had 1 knee surgery and everything was fluky or relatively minor besides that one procedure.

Now he has had 3 knee surgeries on the same knee and its clear its not an issue that will ever return to 100%.

What do I KNOW? I know that there is no such thing as minor knee surgery for an NBA player, and if you are having knee surgery at the age of 20, before the years of pounding and wear and tear are put on your knee that you experience in the NBA from constantly cutting and jumping and running, you are starting your career in a precarious position. I guess we will see how it goes this year. Me? I would be surprised if Ball plays in 60 games. If you want to use that as an over/under (60) for a bet I am game.

He was already damaged goods coming into the league, having only played in 11 games with Duke.

 

[WiggyRuss]

None of those teams have Lebron on their roster, an elite NBA history for the franchise, or Hollywood in their backyard. They will be near the top of most free agent's wish list.

As far as the pu-pu platter, what would have the Lakers do? Since George made his odd decision, what was left other than to hold onto their cap space until next year? They found vets willing to take 1 year deals that can defend and rebound to surround Lebron, which nicely offsets their young players that should be coming into their own as the season progresses. Certainly having someone like Lebron drawing the defense's attention will allow better matchups for the kids as well as the vets.

The only move I had issues with was losing Randle. I actually prefer keeping all the kids together over bringing in "Playoff P". Now that it looks like the 2nd max player will be acquired through free agency, the Lakers can keep all that young talent intact and add to it, instead of replace it.

One of the issues with the young talent is something that we saw in Cleveland. When Wiggins was taken in the draft he was an extremely highly rated prospect and some people thought keeping him would be the right thing to do. Unfortunately, his prime simply did not line up with LeBron's. NBA players typically enter their prime about 25-26 years old- or at least close to it at that point. I think that the players ABSOLUTE best years are usually like 27-28, but I would say if you enter the league at 19 like say Ingram did, once you get to 25 you are fairly close to your prime.

When the Cavs drafted Wiggins LeBron was only 29 (soon to be 30) years old, and still, you heard it everywhere- "Trade Wiggins for a win-now all star talent like Love. Wiggins prime does not line up with LeBron's. You have maybe the best player of all time and you just cant waste his prime years waiting for a guy to develop who is no sure thing in the first place (even though he was an A prospect).

Now, four years later, and LeBron is 33, soon to be 34. Ingram is 20 years old. If you agree with me that a player is just STARTING to enter their prime at the age of 25, that is of course 5 years down the road. At that point LeBron will be 38 years old. The prime's of Ingram and LeBron simply do not overlap at all. Much is the same with Ball except Ball is of course even younger than Ingram.

It is a hard decision they have to make if you ask me--- keep Ingram even though his prime will never lineup with LeBron's prime, and try and win a title while LeBron is still the best, or close to the best player in the league, or trade him for a player who can actually be a big time contributor and has a prime that actually lines up with LeBron's.

Its a fascinating decision. I will be very interested to see how it works out.

 

[WiggyRuss]

He was already damaged goods coming into the league, having only played in 11 games with Duke.

that was a toe issue which never again resurfaced. It was not a chronic problem like a knee that is prone to aggravation and continued degeneration over time.

 

[DJ]

Of course the Lakers have a plan. They had a plan prior to this offseason as well and I'm sure that Option 1 wasn't Lebron and the pu pu platter. George staying with OKC likely screwed up their plans.

They will make their moves next year but, IMO, they are now in a make or break situation next year UNLESS Ingram or Ball or Kuzma or Hart make a pretty massive jump in play. There will be a number of game changer FAs available next year but there will be a LOT of teams with lots of money. How many players getting the market next year are really worth a max contract? How many will get one? Brooklyn is going to have enough cap space to sign two max free agents next year. Philly will have cap space to sign one. Clippers as well. Bulls could get there. Bunch of other teams will have cash to burn as well.

Teams are going to be drunken sailors on shore leave next year in FA.

Ingram averaged 9ppg as a rookie and 16ppg as a 2nd year player....he could make the jump to 19-20ppg as a natural progression of a youngster matures. And not unheard of either. That would be pretty good IMO.

 

[LAD]

Talent wise? OKC was better but..... Donovan.

I'd take a Stevens coached team over a Donovan coached team. Especially, with the way they were playing.

I think as much as you place the blame on Donovan I think RW should get his fair share too. He still hasn't mastered the timing on iso vs. team ball.

 

[tlance]

Its that way because you cant pay LeBron his market rate of what would be at LEAST 60M a year. All that extra money swimming around has to go somewhere. It usually goes to the great but not elite players like Kemba- by, as you said, them getting paid 85% of what the true superstars make.

When you look at what players like McCollum, Conley, Porter, Holiday, Wiggins, Wall, etc. make- the starting point for a Kemba contract will be more than what Holiday and Porter make- but less than what Wall makes--- which puts him right where I expect him to be- somewhere between say 30-35M a year.

The market is whatever teams are willing to pay. If nobody offers Kemba $35 million a year, he isn't worth that number.

My point is that no team should offer him that. But we both know somebody probably will.

 

[LAD]

Nobody is beating the Warriors.

Rockets aren't untouchable. They matched up quite well with them last season, even beating them in Houston with a couple of key players out. Not to mention they got weaker defensively this offseason. So why not?

Because of two reasons:

1. You have to stop them from scoring and then...

2. You have to score more than them

and we know for certain they won't be able to do #2 and quite possibly not #1 either.

 

[LAD]

Lakers got better, Houston got worse. Not saying a playoff series victory is guaranteed, but it's not impossible.

Yes but the gap was so astronomical that even with the Lakers' improvements it didn't put them in a position that makes them better than Houston - even with the loss of Ariza.

Now, as @flyerhawk mentioned before, if they lose capela too then maybe you can make your case. But right now, no. Houston is still way more talented than the Lakers.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Ingram averaged 9ppg as a rookie and 16ppg as a 2nd year player....he could make the jump to 19-20ppg as a natural progression of a youngster matures. And not unheard of either. That would be pretty good IMO.

I will bet you that Ingram does not score more than 16ppg this season.

let me know if you want to take the bet.

 

[LAD]

Yeah, that's why just saying
" Adding LeBron to the young guys gets us x amount more wins " is retarded.

Rotations, minutes, roles will be different.

So, obviously...production will be as well.

For every minute Lance, Beasley, Rondo get...

That's a minute less for Kuzma, Ingram and Ball.

Fuck KCP.

I'd give up all his minutes...lol

It's gonna be interesting to see how Luke handles it.

I hope Hart isn't the odd man out.

Not to mention LBJ will be trying to adapt to his new role of playing off the ball more.

 

[Mecca]

Besides, if Lance acts up, he gone. Move on and add another depth player to replace him on the roster.

See, I totally agree.

I don't like a few of the moves the Lakers made this Summer.

But, let's not pretend they will negatively affect the long-term.

Every single player that people deem to be a knucklehead is on a 1 year, placeholder, tryout deal.

You aren't expected to compete for a Championship this year.

So, the worst thing that can happen is a toxic locker room because of entitlement over playing time.

While that's not ideal ,that situation is easily remedied during the Season or next Summer.

I'm starting to come around to @DJ way of thinking.

This is a great chance for past malcontents to prove their careers can be salvaged.

Lost of eyes will be watching.

 

[Mecca]

Not to mention LBJ will be trying to adapt to his new role of playing off the ball more.

....and playing the 4 full-time....

....and playing the 5 part-time.

 

[Mecca]

I will bet you that Ingram does not score more than 16ppg this season.

let me know if you want to take the bet.

That sounds about right.

But, it's possible his scoring goes up.

Remember: They are adding LeBron. But, losing Randle and Slow-pez.

Kuz is going to the bench.

I think he will have the biggest drop in production and Ingram could very well be the 2nd leading scorer.

 

[Mecca]

Ingram averaged 9ppg as a rookie and 16ppg as a 2nd year player....he could make the jump to 19-20ppg as a natural progression of a youngster matures. And not unheard of either. That would be pretty good IMO.

It could go either way with Ingram.

But, I would think either he or KCP would be the #2 scorer with Randle gone and Kuz going to the bench.

I guess Kuz could go all Lou Williams and lead everyone but Bron in points from the bench.

But, I doubt it. I think his stats will drop the most because LeBron, Lance, Ingram gonna chew into his minutes.

 

[flyerhawk]

None of those teams have Lebron on their roster, an elite NBA history for the franchise, or Hollywood in their backyard. They will be near the top of most free agent's wish list.

I have no idea if Lebron is a draw or a deterrent for most elite players at this point. Knicks and Laker fans are always talking about how every free agent wants to come play in the big markets but it doesn't seem like it happens all that often.

As far as the pu-pu platter, what would have the Lakers do? Since George made his odd decision, what was left other than to hold onto their cap space until next year? They found vets willing to take 1 year deals that can defend and rebound to surround Lebron, which nicely offsets their young players that should be coming into their own as the season progresses. Certainly having someone like Lebron drawing the defense's attention will allow better matchups for the kids as well as the vets.

I'm not criticizing their decisions. I get why they did what they did. They built a team that will be competitive but not good enough to win a title because they wanted to keep their powder dry for next year.

The only move I had issues with was losing Randle. I actually prefer keeping all the kids together over bringing in "Playoff P". Now that it looks like the 2nd max player will be acquired through free agency, the Lakers can keep all that young talent intact and add to it, instead of replace it.

Sure. As I said, it all boils down to next offseason for the Lakers. If they don't make a big move or two next year, then bringing in Lebron will be for naught.

 

[flyerhawk]

That sounds about right.

But, it's possible his scoring goes up.

Remember: They are adding LeBron. But, losing Randle and Slow-pez.

Kuz is going to the bench.

I think he will have the biggest drop in production and Ingram could very well be the 2nd leading scorer.

Who do you see playing the 4 primarily?