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Part 1 of 4
Predicting whether 32 bold offseason moves will hit or miss
By Mike Sando
Arizona Cardinals
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The move: Letting both starting safeties depart in free agency
Prediction: The Cardinals' defense will have a harder time covering for Calais Campbell's departure. Arizona, third in defensive expected points added (EPA) last season, will not finish among the top 10 this season. But with the special teams avoiding a repeat of its 2016 implosion, the Cardinals' win-loss record could improve anyway.
Atlanta Falcons
The move: Hiring first-time NFL coordinators
Prediction: The defense will continue to improve with Marquand Manuel calling plays and Dan Quinn providing insurance, but the offense will become more predictable (as one evaluator noted, Kyle Shanahan possessed an uncanny feel for keeping defenses off balance) with Steve Sarkisian in place. After finishing with seven interceptions last season, Matt Ryan will come closer to throwing 14, which was near his average during the previous five seasons.
Baltimore Ravens
The move: Standing pat at wide receiver through most of the offseason
Prediction: This move worked out better than anticipated when Jeremy Maclin became available and signed with the Ravens, but the Ravens will still finish 2017 a distant third in the AFC North when it comes to offensive weaponry. Baltimore will use a 2018 first-round pick for a receiver if the value is right.
Buffalo Bills
The move: Declining WR Sammy Watkins' fifth-year option
Prediction: Watkins will emerge from this season as a candidate to sign the type of deal Alshon Jeffery received from the Eagles, most likely with a different team. The Bills' current leadership will not flinch in making a clean break from the player most associated with the previous regime.
Carolina Panthers
The move: Firing GM Dave Gettleman
Prediction: Owner Jerry Richardson will remove the "interim" label from Marty Hurney's title. The unspoken implication will be that Gettleman is primarily to blame for what still could be a disappointing 2017 season.
Chicago Bears
The move: Trading up for QB Mitch Trubisky after signing QB Mike Glennon
Prediction: With a weak roster around them, neither Trubisky not Glennon will play well enough for Bears ownership to keep coach John Fox beyond 2017. Trubisky will start fresh with a new system in 2018, setting back his development in the short term.
Cincinnati Bengals
The move: Using first two draft choices for boom-or-bust prospects
Prediction: First-round pick John Ross and second-rounder Joe Mixon will do enough as rookies for the Bengals' offense to finish among the NFL's top 10 by meaningful measures (this feels like one of my riskier predictions, but with three years having passed since Mixon's horrific assault against a woman, the incident does not appear to be part of a pattern).
Cleveland Browns
The move: Letting the draft's first round pass without selecting a QB
Prediction: DeShone Kizer will show flashes of promise in an offense geared around the running game, but when the season ends, Cleveland will rank 23rd or worse in Total QBR for the fifth time in the past six seasons. The team will use a 2018 first-round pick for a QB.
Predicting whether 32 bold offseason moves will hit or miss
By Mike Sando
Arizona Cardinals
More people play on ESPN than anywhere else. Join or create a league in the No. 1 Fantasy Football game! Sign up for free!
The move: Letting both starting safeties depart in free agency
Prediction: The Cardinals' defense will have a harder time covering for Calais Campbell's departure. Arizona, third in defensive expected points added (EPA) last season, will not finish among the top 10 this season. But with the special teams avoiding a repeat of its 2016 implosion, the Cardinals' win-loss record could improve anyway.
Atlanta Falcons
The move: Hiring first-time NFL coordinators
Prediction: The defense will continue to improve with Marquand Manuel calling plays and Dan Quinn providing insurance, but the offense will become more predictable (as one evaluator noted, Kyle Shanahan possessed an uncanny feel for keeping defenses off balance) with Steve Sarkisian in place. After finishing with seven interceptions last season, Matt Ryan will come closer to throwing 14, which was near his average during the previous five seasons.
Baltimore Ravens
The move: Standing pat at wide receiver through most of the offseason
Prediction: This move worked out better than anticipated when Jeremy Maclin became available and signed with the Ravens, but the Ravens will still finish 2017 a distant third in the AFC North when it comes to offensive weaponry. Baltimore will use a 2018 first-round pick for a receiver if the value is right.
Buffalo Bills
The move: Declining WR Sammy Watkins' fifth-year option
Prediction: Watkins will emerge from this season as a candidate to sign the type of deal Alshon Jeffery received from the Eagles, most likely with a different team. The Bills' current leadership will not flinch in making a clean break from the player most associated with the previous regime.
Carolina Panthers
The move: Firing GM Dave Gettleman
Prediction: Owner Jerry Richardson will remove the "interim" label from Marty Hurney's title. The unspoken implication will be that Gettleman is primarily to blame for what still could be a disappointing 2017 season.
Chicago Bears
The move: Trading up for QB Mitch Trubisky after signing QB Mike Glennon
Prediction: With a weak roster around them, neither Trubisky not Glennon will play well enough for Bears ownership to keep coach John Fox beyond 2017. Trubisky will start fresh with a new system in 2018, setting back his development in the short term.
Cincinnati Bengals
The move: Using first two draft choices for boom-or-bust prospects
Prediction: First-round pick John Ross and second-rounder Joe Mixon will do enough as rookies for the Bengals' offense to finish among the NFL's top 10 by meaningful measures (this feels like one of my riskier predictions, but with three years having passed since Mixon's horrific assault against a woman, the incident does not appear to be part of a pattern).
Cleveland Browns
The move: Letting the draft's first round pass without selecting a QB
Prediction: DeShone Kizer will show flashes of promise in an offense geared around the running game, but when the season ends, Cleveland will rank 23rd or worse in Total QBR for the fifth time in the past six seasons. The team will use a 2018 first-round pick for a QB.