Fantasy Football News and Rumors

[redskinsfan1963]

kc/ravens kicking off snf.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

I can see that. He has gone anywhere from 1.4 to 2.2 in the ones I've done. Is he going to be as good as Rashee Rice was last year or terrible like Skye Moore or Mecole Hardman? As good as Andy Reid is as an offensive mind, he hasn't exactly knocked it out of the park with the skill position guys in the early rounds. His best picks have been later. Kelce was a 3rd rounder, Reek was a 5th rounder, Kareem Hunt was a 3rd rounder and Pacheco was a 7th rounder. Of course he made up for all of that by moving up to take Mahomes in 2017, but he was also the one in the draft room that was absolutely thrilled that they got CEH at 32. I found this tweet from right before the draft. So clearly the NFL front office "experts" have even less than a normal idea of how good 1st round wide receivers will be than any other position.

View attachment 361961

Shefty provides good stats here, but his definition of "hit" is stupid. Signing a second contract with the team that drafts you doesn't make a hit, especially for fantasy. I would think maintaining or improving rookie season redraft ADP is a better definition for our purposes. Or having a top 24 WR finish within first 3 seasons. Also, he stops at 2019, right when the league saw a big shift in WRs making an immediate impact in the league.

In my opinion:
2020 had 6 WRs go in the first, 50% hit rate with Lamb, Jefferson, Aiyuk
2021 had 5 WR, 60% hit, Chase, Waddle, Devonta
2022 had 6 WR, 50% hit, London, Wilson, Olave (33% hit if you don't like London but this season will confirm my 50%, could be higher if Jamo breaks out)
2023, known to be weaker at WR, had 4, minimum 50% hit with Flowers and Addison, JSN and QJ will determine if it is higher

We don't even get first round RBs to evaluate anymore and he's got 48 in his data set, lol

 

[SmokingMonkey]

11/21 first round WRs have hit in 2020-2023, that's very impressive track record

 

[eaglesnut]

I always get a kick out of of this coach had never done this that it the other thing with rookies...

Bottom line, if the guy shows he can outproduce the alternatives, and help the team win, he's gonna play. Now that bar might be higher for some coaches than others, but simple reality.

but here's the catch, if Worthy, with that kind of speed , was also the kind of receiver that you simply can't help but play because he's so damned good, than he would been held in the same regard as Nabors, Harrison and Odunze, but he wasn't. Wasn't even in the next tier down until he ran the 40.

I was going to disagree with you. I was going to say Reid has been consistent with all his drafted playmakers for almost 30 years now.

But as I went to support that statement with stats I found that the greatest deep threat of all time was used as much as he ever was in year one. Now it wasn't his best year for production, but Desean did have 120 targets in years 1 and 2, and he only beat those numbers with 126 targets in year 6.

If Worthy is supposed to be some sort of desean-lite then he could see the field right away.

Kareem Hunt is the other Reid put in there right away after letting Westbrook and McCoy more gradually take over the backfield.

 

[TREFF]

Shefty provides good stats here, but his definition of "hit" is stupid. Signing a second contract with the team that drafts you doesn't make a hit, especially for fantasy. I would think maintaining or improving rookie season redraft ADP is a better definition for our purposes. Or having a top 24 WR finish within first 3 seasons. Also, he stops at 2019, right when the league saw a big shift in WRs making an immediate impact in the league.

In my opinion:
2020 had 6 WRs go in the first, 50% hit rate with Lamb, Jefferson, Aiyuk
2021 had 5 WR, 60% hit, Chase, Waddle, Devonta
2022 had 6 WR, 50% hit, London, Wilson, Olave (33% hit if you don't like London but this season will confirm my 50%, could be higher if Jamo breaks out)
2023, known to be weaker at WR, had 4, minimum 50% hit with Flowers and Addison, JSN and QJ will determine if it is higher

We don't even get first round RBs to evaluate anymore and he's got 48 in his data set, lol

I highly doubt Shefty had us fantasy geeks in mind, and was more referring to the actual football side of things. No point in including the OL's and the D players (for the most part) if it's with a fantasy perspective in mind. The hit/miss of signing a second contract certainly is a flawed method, but it is non-subjective and does have some teeth. IF you're still with the team that used a first round pick on you and contributing..it's more of a hit than a miss, that's inarguable.
But as to its flaws, just a couple examples-
CEH technically signed a second contract with the Chiefs, but is quite obviously a miss.

whereas AJ Brown did not sign a second contract with the team that drafted him, yet he is most definitely a hit.

Virtually any other method is gonna be subjective. Most of the hits, I'm sure virtually everyone would agree, same with most misses. For example, you listed Zay Flowers. IS he a 'hit'? I'm not so sure. Zero 100 yard games, zero 10 catch performances, averaged less than 55 yards a game. Certainly not a definitive 'hit', yet plenty to say he's looking on track to be a hit. And yet, given that Lamar is not in any way known for supporting a fantasy WR, maybe that is better than what most would've expected, and thus, a 'hit'?

Similar with Addison, but he had mitigating circumstances, both for and against..he had the advantage of being the #1 WR on the team for half the year, he also had subpar QB play for half the year. He did have a couple monster games, but again, averaged less than 55 yards per game, but had 10 TD..is that a hit, or is it a streaky, flashy guy that'll fade once the alpha is constantly on the other side?

JSN, who was almost unanimously the #1 WR prospect, certainly had some good showings, and yet they re-signed Lockett. And who knows, maybe Q. Johnson and his work in practice and camps and whatnot, made the Chargers decision to part with their big 2 WR's and NOT take a WR in the first round, more palatable, and this will be his year?

Regardless, I would say 1 season isn't enough, IMHO, to give a good hit or miss grade. In some instances yes, in many others definitely no.

There's just not a great, non-subjective way to evaluate hit/misses

 

[eaglesnut]

I can see that. He has gone anywhere from 1.4 to 2.2 in the ones I've done. Is he going to be as good as Rashee Rice was last year or terrible like Skye Moore or Mecole Hardman? As good as Andy Reid is as an offensive mind, he hasn't exactly knocked it out of the park with the skill position guys in the early rounds. His best picks have been later. Kelce was a 3rd rounder, Reek was a 5th rounder, Kareem Hunt was a 3rd rounder and Pacheco was a 7th rounder. Of course he made up for all of that by moving up to take Mahomes in 2017, but he was also the one in the draft room that was absolutely thrilled that they got CEH at 32. I found this tweet from right before the draft. So clearly the NFL front office "experts" have even less than a normal idea of how good 1st round wide receivers will be than any other position.

View attachment 361961

CB is hard as fuck to scout and teams don't let their good ones leave, but the other ones at the bottom there are largely interchangeable, replaceable, and dependent on the teams QB.

Don't like the methodology, but it's a number and it's the offseason and it's espn.

 

[Trudem]

I was somewhat tempted to take Zay Jones as a flier in more than one 'rookie' draft this past week after I heard he was visiting the Chiefs. Now I'm glad I didn't.

Zay Jones to the Cardinals. Probably third fiddle to Harrison and M. Wilson with Kyley still under center.

I’ve held on to him just in case

 

[SmokingMonkey]

I highly doubt Shefty had us fantasy geeks in mind, and was more referring to the actual football side of things. No point in including the OL's and the D players (for the most part) if it's with a fantasy perspective in mind. The hit/miss of signing a second contract certainly is a flawed method, but it is non-subjective and does have some teeth. IF you're still with the team that used a first round pick on you and contributing..it's more of a hit than a miss, that's inarguable.
But as to its flaws, just a couple examples-
CEH technically signed a second contract with the Chiefs, but is quite obviously a miss.

whereas AJ Brown did not sign a second contract with the team that drafted him, yet he is most definitely a hit.

Virtually any other method is gonna be subjective. Most of the hits, I'm sure virtually everyone would agree, same with most misses. For example, you listed Zay Flowers. IS he a 'hit'? I'm not so sure. Zero 100 yard games, zero 10 catch performances, averaged less than 55 yards a game. Certainly not a definitive 'hit', yet plenty to say he's looking on track to be a hit. And yet, given that Lamar is not in any way known for supporting a fantasy WR, maybe that is better than what most would've expected, and thus, a 'hit'?

Similar with Addison, but he had mitigating circumstances, both for and against..he had the advantage of being the #1 WR on the team for half the year, he also had subpar QB play for half the year. He did have a couple monster games, but again, averaged less than 55 yards per game, but had 10 TD..is that a hit, or is it a streaky, flashy guy that'll fade once the alpha is constantly on the other side?

JSN, who was almost unanimously the #1 WR prospect, certainly had some good showings, and yet they re-signed Lockett. And who knows, maybe Q. Johnson and his work in practice and camps and whatnot, made the Chargers decision to part with their big 2 WR's and NOT take a WR in the first round, more palatable, and this will be his year?

Regardless, I would say 1 season isn't enough, IMHO, to give a good hit or miss grade. In some instances yes, in many others definitely no.

There's just not a great, non-subjective way to evaluate hit/misses

my criteria was redraft ADP being stable/better after rookie season or a top 24 WR fantasy season. I guess dynasty startup ADP would be a good barometer as well

 

[Bandit]

my criteria was redraft ADP being stable/better after rookie season or a top 24 WR fantasy season. I guess dynasty startup ADP would be a good barometer as well

Even that is going to have it's flaws though. Treylon Burks was most certainly drafted higher in his 2nd year than his first but would you consider him a hit? Same with guys like Skye Moore. Fantasy managers are just as dumb as NFL GM's and draft potential the same way especially when we convince ourselves that a guy is going to get more opportunities the next year. Sometimes the reason they don't get on the field isn't just because they were a rookie, sometimes they just suck.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Even that is going to have it's flaws though. Treylon Burks was most certainly drafted higher in his 2nd year than his first but would you consider him a hit? Same with guys like Skye Moore. Fantasy managers are just as dumb as NFL GM's and draft potential the same way especially when we convince ourselves that a guy is going to get more opportunities the next year. Sometimes the reason they don't get on the field isn't just because they were a rookie, sometimes they just suck.

Very easy to logically not include Burks or Moore(not a 1st rd WR) in a list of draft hits. There will never be a perfect method, but starting out with some realistic criteria to remove the duds and identify the studs has to start somewhere besides "did that guy get a 2nd contract from the team that drafted him", especially as trading has intensified in the NFL over the last few years compared to the decades of seasons prior. As Treff mentioned, Shefty doesn't count AJB as a hit in his data set, that's way more egregious that Burks possibly moving up 2-3 spots in the WR rankings before the Titans signed Hopkins last summer.

Hard to find a resource that shows a player's dynasty value over time, and while their rankings typically aren't what I consider very good, KeepTradeCut shows Burks peaking at WR15 at the beginning of his rookie year and he never regained that valuation. Absolute nosedive after the start of his 2nd season with the Hopkins signing.
I normally use fantasyfootballcalculator to research historical ADPs, but their 2023 data isn't pulling up when I filter to that year for some reason.

 

[redskinsfan1963]

I was going to disagree with you. I was going to say Reid has been consistent with all his drafted playmakers for almost 30 years now.

But as I went to support that statement with stats I found that the greatest deep threat of all time was used as much as he ever was in year one. Now it wasn't his best year for production, but Desean did have 120 targets in years 1 and 2, and he only beat those numbers with 126 targets in year 6.

If Worthy is supposed to be some sort of desean-lite then he could see the field right away.

Kareem Hunt is the other Reid put in there right away after letting Westbrook and McCoy more gradually take over the backfield.

did reid have shitty seasons in philly besides the final 2? he,s never had bad ones in kc,has he?

 

[Clayton]

I can see that. He has gone anywhere from 1.4 to 2.2 in the ones I've done. Is he going to be as good as Rashee Rice was last year or terrible like Skye Moore or Mecole Hardman? As good as Andy Reid is as an offensive mind, he hasn't exactly knocked it out of the park with the skill position guys in the early rounds. His best picks have been later. Kelce was a 3rd rounder, Reek was a 5th rounder, Kareem Hunt was a 3rd rounder and Pacheco was a 7th rounder. Of course he made up for all of that by moving up to take Mahomes in 2017, but he was also the one in the draft room that was absolutely thrilled that they got CEH at 32. I found this tweet from right before the draft. So clearly the NFL front office "experts" have even less than a normal idea of how good 1st round wide receivers will be than any other position.

View attachment 361961

My one nitpick here is that I'd like to see C and G merged here because then the narrative of IOL being at 62.5% actually put its near OT at 59% instead of having 92% in the same tier as 59% as if that makes sense. Having OL as a whole being around 60% success rate does have a nice feel to it. It makes sense to give your OL a second contract as often as possible because OL generally peaks in its second contract best I can tell.


Lists of WRs picked between 20-32 since Mahomes has been drafted:

DJ Moore
Calvin Ridley
Hollywood Brown
N'keal Harry
Jalen Reagor
Justin Jefferson
Brandon Aiyuk
Kadarius Toney
Rashod Bateman
Jaxon Smith Njigba
Quinton Johnson
Zay Flowers
Jordan Addison

A little bit of everything. I will say that when WRs bust, they bust hard.

 

[eaglesnut]

did reid have shitty seasons in philly besides the final 2? he,s never had bad ones in kc,has he?

His first year and his last year. Only one in between.

 

[redskinsfan1963]

His first year and his last year. Only one in between.

did,nt think it was many.

 

[Chef99]

And the beat goes on...

Chiefs OT Wanya Morris was arrested on Thursday and charged with misdemeanor marijuana possession in Johnson County, Kansas.


Teammate Jason Godrick was also arrested with Morris, as the two were reportedly booked at the Johnson County Adult Detention Center around 2 A.M. Friday morning. Both players have since posted bond and were released, with their court appearances scheduled for May 23. It continues to be a rough offseason for the defending Super Bowl champions, who are dealing with the legal issues Rashee Rice has found himself in, and controversial comments recently made by kicker Harrison Butker. Morris is expected to compete with rookie Kingsley Suamataia for the starting left tackle job this offseason. Both players could be subject to discipline from the NFL depending on how the rest of this shakes out.

 

[Bandit]

And the beat goes on...

Chiefs OT Wanya Morris was arrested on Thursday and charged with misdemeanor marijuana possession in Johnson County, Kansas.


Teammate Jason Godrick was also arrested with Morris, as the two were reportedly booked at the Johnson County Adult Detention Center around 2 A.M. Friday morning. Both players have since posted bond and were released, with their court appearances scheduled for May 23. It continues to be a rough offseason for the defending Super Bowl champions, who are dealing with the legal issues Rashee Rice has found himself in, and controversial comments recently made by kicker Harrison Butker. Morris is expected to compete with rookie Kingsley Suamataia for the starting left tackle job this offseason. Both players could be subject to discipline from the NFL depending on how the rest of this shakes out.

You know at this point I think the Chiefs are just trying to add to their degree of difficulty. They've already proved the last two years they can win without any wide receivers, so now they are going to see if they can win with off the field distractions.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

And the beat goes on...

Chiefs OT Wanya Morris was arrested on Thursday and charged with misdemeanor marijuana possession in Johnson County, Kansas.


Teammate Jason Godrick was also arrested with Morris, as the two were reportedly booked at the Johnson County Adult Detention Center around 2 A.M. Friday morning. Both players could be subject to discipline from the NFL depending on how the rest of this shakes out.

Nothing Burger if I ever seen one. MO is rec legal, KS changed everything regarding amounts for personal use down to misdemeanors after their jails/ judicial system couldn't handle the volume of tourists driving back from CO years ago, and isn't the league removing weed from their banned substances list?

Will be very surprised if they get any kind of suspension, unless details emerge that they had an obscene amount of them with intent to distribute, but I'd imagine KS would've nailed them for more than misdemeanors if that was the case.

 

[TREFF]

Devante Parker retires. Not exactly a big deal being buried on the Eagles roster anyways. But the perennial tease is no more

 

[eaglesnut]

Devante Parker retires. Not exactly a big deal being buried on the Eagles roster anyways. But the perennial tease is no more

Damn he was our main outside backup. Thin at receiver.

 

[wilwhite]

Damn he was our main outside backup. Thin at receiver.

Smith is. Brown not so much.