Fantasy Football News and Rumors

[redskinsfan1963]

kc/ravens kicking off snf.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

I can see that. He has gone anywhere from 1.4 to 2.2 in the ones I've done. Is he going to be as good as Rashee Rice was last year or terrible like Skye Moore or Mecole Hardman? As good as Andy Reid is as an offensive mind, he hasn't exactly knocked it out of the park with the skill position guys in the early rounds. His best picks have been later. Kelce was a 3rd rounder, Reek was a 5th rounder, Kareem Hunt was a 3rd rounder and Pacheco was a 7th rounder. Of course he made up for all of that by moving up to take Mahomes in 2017, but he was also the one in the draft room that was absolutely thrilled that they got CEH at 32. I found this tweet from right before the draft. So clearly the NFL front office "experts" have even less than a normal idea of how good 1st round wide receivers will be than any other position.

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Shefty provides good stats here, but his definition of "hit" is stupid. Signing a second contract with the team that drafts you doesn't make a hit, especially for fantasy. I would think maintaining or improving rookie season redraft ADP is a better definition for our purposes. Or having a top 24 WR finish within first 3 seasons. Also, he stops at 2019, right when the league saw a big shift in WRs making an immediate impact in the league.

In my opinion:
2020 had 6 WRs go in the first, 50% hit rate with Lamb, Jefferson, Aiyuk
2021 had 5 WR, 60% hit, Chase, Waddle, Devonta
2022 had 6 WR, 50% hit, London, Wilson, Olave (33% hit if you don't like London but this season will confirm my 50%, could be higher if Jamo breaks out)
2023, known to be weaker at WR, had 4, minimum 50% hit with Flowers and Addison, JSN and QJ will determine if it is higher

We don't even get first round RBs to evaluate anymore and he's got 48 in his data set, lol

 

[SmokingMonkey]

11/21 first round WRs have hit in 2020-2023, that's very impressive track record

 

[eaglesnut]

I always get a kick out of of this coach had never done this that it the other thing with rookies...

Bottom line, if the guy shows he can outproduce the alternatives, and help the team win, he's gonna play. Now that bar might be higher for some coaches than others, but simple reality.

but here's the catch, if Worthy, with that kind of speed , was also the kind of receiver that you simply can't help but play because he's so damned good, than he would been held in the same regard as Nabors, Harrison and Odunze, but he wasn't. Wasn't even in the next tier down until he ran the 40.

I was going to disagree with you. I was going to say Reid has been consistent with all his drafted playmakers for almost 30 years now.

But as I went to support that statement with stats I found that the greatest deep threat of all time was used as much as he ever was in year one. Now it wasn't his best year for production, but Desean did have 120 targets in years 1 and 2, and he only beat those numbers with 126 targets in year 6.

If Worthy is supposed to be some sort of desean-lite then he could see the field right away.

Kareem Hunt is the other Reid put in there right away after letting Westbrook and McCoy more gradually take over the backfield.

 

[TREFF]

Shefty provides good stats here, but his definition of "hit" is stupid. Signing a second contract with the team that drafts you doesn't make a hit, especially for fantasy. I would think maintaining or improving rookie season redraft ADP is a better definition for our purposes. Or having a top 24 WR finish within first 3 seasons. Also, he stops at 2019, right when the league saw a big shift in WRs making an immediate impact in the league.

In my opinion:
2020 had 6 WRs go in the first, 50% hit rate with Lamb, Jefferson, Aiyuk
2021 had 5 WR, 60% hit, Chase, Waddle, Devonta
2022 had 6 WR, 50% hit, London, Wilson, Olave (33% hit if you don't like London but this season will confirm my 50%, could be higher if Jamo breaks out)
2023, known to be weaker at WR, had 4, minimum 50% hit with Flowers and Addison, JSN and QJ will determine if it is higher

We don't even get first round RBs to evaluate anymore and he's got 48 in his data set, lol

I highly doubt Shefty had us fantasy geeks in mind, and was more referring to the actual football side of things. No point in including the OL's and the D players (for the most part) if it's with a fantasy perspective in mind. The hit/miss of signing a second contract certainly is a flawed method, but it is non-subjective and does have some teeth. IF you're still with the team that used a first round pick on you and contributing..it's more of a hit than a miss, that's inarguable.
But as to its flaws, just a couple examples-
CEH technically signed a second contract with the Chiefs, but is quite obviously a miss.

whereas AJ Brown did not sign a second contract with the team that drafted him, yet he is most definitely a hit.

Virtually any other method is gonna be subjective. Most of the hits, I'm sure virtually everyone would agree, same with most misses. For example, you listed Zay Flowers. IS he a 'hit'? I'm not so sure. Zero 100 yard games, zero 10 catch performances, averaged less than 55 yards a game. Certainly not a definitive 'hit', yet plenty to say he's looking on track to be a hit. And yet, given that Lamar is not in any way known for supporting a fantasy WR, maybe that is better than what most would've expected, and thus, a 'hit'?

Similar with Addison, but he had mitigating circumstances, both for and against..he had the advantage of being the #1 WR on the team for half the year, he also had subpar QB play for half the year. He did have a couple monster games, but again, averaged less than 55 yards per game, but had 10 TD..is that a hit, or is it a streaky, flashy guy that'll fade once the alpha is constantly on the other side?

JSN, who was almost unanimously the #1 WR prospect, certainly had some good showings, and yet they re-signed Lockett. And who knows, maybe Q. Johnson and his work in practice and camps and whatnot, made the Chargers decision to part with their big 2 WR's and NOT take a WR in the first round, more palatable, and this will be his year?

Regardless, I would say 1 season isn't enough, IMHO, to give a good hit or miss grade. In some instances yes, in many others definitely no.

There's just not a great, non-subjective way to evaluate hit/misses

 

[eaglesnut]

I can see that. He has gone anywhere from 1.4 to 2.2 in the ones I've done. Is he going to be as good as Rashee Rice was last year or terrible like Skye Moore or Mecole Hardman? As good as Andy Reid is as an offensive mind, he hasn't exactly knocked it out of the park with the skill position guys in the early rounds. His best picks have been later. Kelce was a 3rd rounder, Reek was a 5th rounder, Kareem Hunt was a 3rd rounder and Pacheco was a 7th rounder. Of course he made up for all of that by moving up to take Mahomes in 2017, but he was also the one in the draft room that was absolutely thrilled that they got CEH at 32. I found this tweet from right before the draft. So clearly the NFL front office "experts" have even less than a normal idea of how good 1st round wide receivers will be than any other position.

View attachment 361961

CB is hard as fuck to scout and teams don't let their good ones leave, but the other ones at the bottom there are largely interchangeable, replaceable, and dependent on the teams QB.

Don't like the methodology, but it's a number and it's the offseason and it's espn.