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tzill
Lefty 99
Interesting numbers: 2014 ZiPS Projections ? San Francisco Giants | FanGraphs Baseball
A couple of notes:
1. 7 of the 8 starters are projected to 2+ WAR. And only one player (Trout) in all of MLB projects better than Buster at 6.5 WAR. 2.0 WAR is rough code for "solid starter" and only Morse (0.2 WAR) is below that.
2. Blanco (1.3), Sanchez (1.1) and Arias (0.7) project as solid bench players. Abreu (0.5) is acceptable and ZiPS doesn't like JCP (0.1) that much.
3. 3 of the 5 SP project to 2+ WAR. Timmy (1.3) and Tron (0.6) get no love.
4. Romo (0.8), Petit (0.4), and JLo (0.2) are projected to be solid bullpen arms. Casilla, Hembree and Affeldt (0.1) are meh. Dunning (0.0) gets no love.
Overall, I think this is a pretty positive projection of the offense. The SP projection is skewed by Timmy's 1.5 seasons starting in 2012. I expect him to be much closer to the second half of 2013. Tron, who knows?
For whatever reason, none of the projections are good for the bullpen, which to me feels wrong. Casilla especially is projected to be poor, but I just don't see it. Morse will give back some oWAR because of negative dWAR, but even then I think 0.2 is too low. He'll be lifted early and often for defense in the 7th.
More and more I see this season hingeing on Timmy. If I'm right and he's evolved into Timmy 3.0 then we'll be just fine.
A couple of notes:
1. 7 of the 8 starters are projected to 2+ WAR. And only one player (Trout) in all of MLB projects better than Buster at 6.5 WAR. 2.0 WAR is rough code for "solid starter" and only Morse (0.2 WAR) is below that.
2. Blanco (1.3), Sanchez (1.1) and Arias (0.7) project as solid bench players. Abreu (0.5) is acceptable and ZiPS doesn't like JCP (0.1) that much.
3. 3 of the 5 SP project to 2+ WAR. Timmy (1.3) and Tron (0.6) get no love.
4. Romo (0.8), Petit (0.4), and JLo (0.2) are projected to be solid bullpen arms. Casilla, Hembree and Affeldt (0.1) are meh. Dunning (0.0) gets no love.
Overall, I think this is a pretty positive projection of the offense. The SP projection is skewed by Timmy's 1.5 seasons starting in 2012. I expect him to be much closer to the second half of 2013. Tron, who knows?
For whatever reason, none of the projections are good for the bullpen, which to me feels wrong. Casilla especially is projected to be poor, but I just don't see it. Morse will give back some oWAR because of negative dWAR, but even then I think 0.2 is too low. He'll be lifted early and often for defense in the 7th.
More and more I see this season hingeing on Timmy. If I'm right and he's evolved into Timmy 3.0 then we'll be just fine.