worst to first is there really such a thing ?

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Rebuilding NFL Teams and the Worst-to-First League, Part 1 of 2

How representative were either of these two extremes? Sad to say, the Redskins are closer to the mark. Of the 24 divisional worst-to-first teams, 14 (58%) were eliminated from the playoffs without winning a game. Of the ten teams (42%) that won at least one playoff game, three exited as wild card winners, three as divisional round winners, one as a conference champion and three as Superbowl champions. In total, only seven of 24 (29%) worst-to-first teams went on to win a divisional round playoff or better following their rise to division leader.

Is going worst-to-first in the division a good indicator of a sustained comeback? Again, the Redskins are the more representative team. Of the 24 divisional worst-to-first teams, three (12.5%) finished first in their division again the year following their meteoric rise to first place. Five (21%) finished in second place the following year, eleven (45%) in third place, and five (21%) in fourth place.

That’s right, 67% (with rounding) of teams that went worst-to-first in their divisions ended up back down in third or fourth place the following season. If we are basing things on worst and first place finish in a division, then, the expression should be amended to “it’s a worst-to-first-to-worst league”. Going worst-to-first in a division, therefore, is more often a result of teams having a single good season than really turning things around.

 

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this graph shows the 49ers didnt take one year as advertised it took 4 in the last instance and a whopping 7 yrs in the first instance

 

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here is what RR did in carolina . it took 3 years not 1

 

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rock bottom?
Now for the results. In total, I identified 38 cases from 2000 to 2019 in which teams came back after hitting the rock bottom threshold of five or fewer wins. The qualifying turnaround times ranged from one season (9/38 cases) to a maximum of 13 years (Detroit Lions 2001-2014, Oakland Raiders 2003-2016). The average turnaround time across the league, as a whole, was 4.6 years.

However, not all teams are created equally. As you might expect, the time taken to turn things around differs considerably amongst the three tiers of teams I identified above. The seven perennial contenders at the top of the league table only contributed six slumps to the analysis. As a group, these teams rarely have seasons below six wins and, when they do, they tend to turn things around very quickly. Four of these teams (Patriots, Steelers, Ravens, Colts) have not experienced back-to-back losing seasons in the last 20 years; and the most back-to-back losing seasons by any team in this group was four (Seahawks). The longest turnaround by any team in this group was five years (Eagles 2012-2017). None of these teams experienced more than one qualifying slump, and the Steelers didn’t have any. The average turnaround time in this group was only 2.5 years.

The 18 up-and-down teams have a much greater diversity of season records. The three teams at the top of this group (Broncos, Chiefs, Saints) each only had one qualifying slump with the only long one being the Chiefs’ bad stretch from 2007-2012. The next 15 up-and-down teams have experienced periods of competitiveness interspersed with slumps to varying degrees over the last two decades. What distinguishes these teams from the ones above them is that the slumps tend to be longer and deeper. Eight teams in this group had only one qualifying slump, with the longest being the Rams’ bad run from 2007-2016. The ultimate up-and-down team was the Atlanta Falcons with four qualifying turnarounds. The average number of qualifying turnarounds by teams in this group was 1.7. The average turnaround time for the up-and-down teams was 3.7 years.

Now for the bad news, Redskins fans. The teams with the most comparable records to the Redskins over the last 20 years are the six other bottom dwellers. Like the perennial contenders, the bottom dwellers tended to experience fewer qualifying turnarounds than the up-and-down teams, but for very different reasons. These teams had losing records for most of the last 20 years and, in the best cases, only occasionally managed to turn things around for brief periods.

The Cardinals and Jaguars both managed to have two brief periods near the top of the league, in between long, deep losing runs. The Lions, Raiders and Redskins have each managed one turnaround (Lions 2001-2014, Raiders 2003-2016, Redskins 2003-2005). And bringing up the rear, the Bills and Browns have not managed to get past 10 wins or win a playoff game in the last 20 years. The qualifying turnarounds in this group ranged in duration from two to 13 years. The average turnaround time amongst the bottom dwellers who have managed to get competitive for brief periods was 7.3 years

now those are actual numbers that back what i have preached for years . time for some of you to reassess expectations and see the bigger surprise

 

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Rebuilding NFL Teams and the Worst-to-First League, Part 2 of 2

here is the data