Why do people resist change/improvement in understanding baseball...

[handicappers]

 

[broncosmitty]

It's a little concerning you included Dougy in this. His schitick is pretty clear lol. Dougy gonna Dougy.

I've been sayin it for like, eight years, or whatever, Douglas owns that thread man.



He IS the Heart.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Man you guys were right. Harper really turned it on finishing 59-231 vs over .500 teams. That's a sweet .258 BA. REALLY turned it on once the games were irrelevant. That's the great thing about facts. They're easy to check. If it makes you feel better he only batted 10 points worse vs playoff teams... didn't bother to check the other stuff because I did it last year. Of you're going to complain about people not using advanced metrics the way you want and then pretend other stats aren't facts then you have no argument. .258! All time great!

They sure are!

Bryce Harper 2015 vs teams above .500 - .278/.412/.565/.976

You've lost even more credibility, which I wasn't sure was possible.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Man you guys were right. Harper really turned it on finishing 59-231 vs over .500 teams. That's a sweet .258 BA. REALLY turned it on once the games were irrelevant. That's the great thing about facts. They're easy to check. If it makes you feel better he only batted 10 points worse vs playoff teams... didn't bother to check the other stuff because I did it last year. Of you're going to complain about people not using advanced metrics the way you want and then pretend other stats aren't facts then you have no argument. .258! All time great!

I'm not sure if you mean that he batted 10 points worse than his season total, your incorrect .258, or his actual BA of .278 against teams .500 and above

I made a slash line calculator in excel of his PAs against playoff teams:



So, Bryce Harper slashed .272/.395/.556/.951 in 2015 against playoff teams (total bum, huh?). That BA is not 10 points less than .330, .258, or .278.

Measured by team ERA, those seven teams include the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th best pitching staffs in baseball and those 5 represent almost 90% of the above PAs.

I plugged the playoff teams' batting against stats into the slash line calculator:



The MLB average slash line in 2015 was .254/.317/.405/.721.

So, while facing the best pitching staffs in baseball, Harper BA'ed 18 points above MLB average, OBP'ed 78 points MLB average, SLG'ed 151 points above MLB average and OPS'ed 231 points above MLB average.

Putting this all into perspective, there were four guys that OPS'ed better than .951 for the season in 2015, and Bryce Harper did it against the best staffs (playoff teams) in baseball.

"That's the great thing about facts. They're easy to check." Derp.

 

[BigRedMoe]

So.... who else has an undiagnosed social disorder?

 

[apachef4]

I'm not sure if you mean that he batted 10 points worse than his season total, your incorrect .258, or his actual BA of .278 against teams .500 and above

I made a slash line calculator in excel of his PAs against playoff teams:

View attachment 111159

So, Bryce Harper slashed .272/.395/.556/.951 in 2015 against playoff teams (total bum, huh?). That BA is not 10 points less than .330, .258, or .278.

Measured by team ERA, those seven teams include the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th best pitching staffs in baseball and those 5 represent almost 90% of the above PAs.

I plugged the playoff teams' batting against stats into the slash line calculator:

View attachment 111160

The MLB average slash line in 2015 was .254/.317/.405/.721.

So, while facing the best pitching staffs in baseball, Harper BA'ed 18 points above MLB average, OBP'ed 78 points MLB average, SLG'ed 151 points above MLB average and OPS'ed 231 points above MLB average.

Putting this all into perspective, there were four guys that OPS'ed better than .951 for the season in 2015, and Bryce Harper did it against the best staffs (playoff teams) in baseball.

"That's the great thing about facts. They're easy to check." Derp.

If I remember correctly, rmilia was comparing those stats to Rizzo's, who was awesome against .500+ teams, and worse against sub .500 teams (though still above average with an OPS+ of 118). The argument was that Rizzo improved as the competition improved, and Harper was worse as the competition improved.

Vs .500+ Teams
G PA AB BA OBP SLG OPS
Harper: 62 260 209 .278 .412 .565 .976
Rizzo: 75 323 271 .325 .418 .579 .997

Vs sub-.500 Teams
G PA AB BA OBP SLG OPS
Harper: 91 394 312 .365 .492 .705 1.198
Rizzo: 85 378 315 .238 .360 .454 .814

It's not an awful argument, though they appear pretty close vs +.500 teams, with a small nod to Rizzo. Rizzo also played a lot more against winning teams, which makes his numbers more impressive, imo. However, there is massive difference against sub-.500 teams, and those games count, too.

rmilia: please forgive me if I have misrepresented your argument from last season. I'm not trying to be a dick or set you up or anything, just wanted to present the argument accurately. Please correct me if I remember it wrong.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

So.... who else has an undiagnosed social disorder?

Spoiler

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

If I remember correctly, rmilia was comparing those stats to Rizzo's, who was awesome against .500+ teams, and worse against sub .500 teams (though still above average with an OPS+ of 118). The argument was that Rizzo improved as the competition improved, and Harper was worse as the competition improved.

Vs .500+ Teams
G PA AB BA OBP SLG OPS
Harper: 62 260 209 .278 .412 .565 .976
Rizzo: 75 323 271 .325 .418 .579 .997

Vs sub-.500 Teams
G PA AB BA OBP SLG OPS
Harper: 91 394 312 .365 .492 .705 1.198
Rizzo: 85 378 315 .238 .360 .454 .814

It's not an awful argument, though they appear pretty close vs +.500 teams, with a small nod to Rizzo. Rizzo also played a lot more against winning teams, which makes his numbers more impressive, imo. However, there is massive difference against sub-.500 teams, and those games count, too.

rmilia: please forgive me if I have misrepresented your argument from last season. I'm not trying to be a dick or set you up or anything, just wanted to present the argument accurately. Please correct me if I remember it wrong.

I suppose if I was as deluded as rmilia, I could deduct from the above that when he's not facing the best teams, Rizzo phones it in. That's not very valuable.

Seriously though, Rizzo didn't even finish in the top 3 in MVP voting, so the discussion between his season and Harper's is best left to those licking the snot and cheese doodle dust off the windows of the short bus.

 

[apachef4]

I suppose if I was as deluded as rmilia, I could deduct from the above that when he's not facing the best teams, Rizzo phones it in. That's not very valuable.

Seriously, though, Rizzo didn't even finish in the top 3 in MVP voting, so the discussion between his season and Harper's is best left to those licking the snot and cheese doodle dust off the windows of the short bus.

Well, he finished 4th, so it's not totally out of left field. Like I said, though, I was kinda speaking for him there, which could be a huge mistake on my part. Let him tell you have I had the right of his argument before going off on him too much.

Edit: Looking at others now, it could have been Goldy that he was talking about. Goldy had really solid numbers vs. both + and - .500 teams.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Well, he finished 4th, so it's not totally out of left field. Like I said, though, I was kinda speaking for him there, which could be a huge mistake on my part. Let him tell you have I had the right of his argument before going off on him too much.

Edit: Looking at others now, it could have been Goldy that he was talking about. Goldy had really solid numbers vs. both + and - .500 teams.

well, If that wasn't his argument it should have been... Its nice seeing a well thought out argument even if it is utter BS...

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Well, he finished 4th, so it's not totally out of left field. Like I said, though, I was kinda speaking for him there, which could be a huge mistake on my part. Let him tell you have I had the right of his argument before going off on him too much.

Rizzo had a great season. He really did, but with 39% of the MVP vote shares, he was closer to Ryan Howard in the MVP race than he was to Bryce Harper.

So, in summary, the guy who rmila said should get the MVP didn't finish in the top 3, and the guy who he said didn't deserve it won it unanimously.

Why am I participating in this?

 

[apachef4]

Rizzo had a great season. He really did, but with 39% of the MVP vote shares, he was closer to Ryan Howard in the MVP race than he was to Bryce Harper.

So, in summary, the guy who rmila said should get the MVP didn't finish in the top 3, and the guy who he said didn't deserve it won it unanimously.

Why am I participating in this?

Meh, what else ya gonna do?

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Edit: Looking at others now, it could have been Goldy that he was talking about. Goldy had really solid numbers vs. both + and - .500 teams.

Yes he did. Just like Harper. Or, are you suggesting that a .976 OPS is not really solid?

 

[apachef4]

Yes he did. Just like Harper. Or, are you suggesting that a .976 OPS is not really solid?

Oh, no no no. I'm 100% in the Harper camp. Christ, I'm a Nats fan, I'd have taken any argument if it helped me.

I was just trying to remember what his argument against Harper was last year, and when you mentioned Rizzo's standing in the MVP voting it made me consider who was second, which was Goldy. And his numbers are nearly identical with regards to +/- .500 teams. Just thought it was cool, and may have been who he was talking about last season. It wasn't, though. It was Rizzo.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Just thought it was cool, and may have been who he was talking about last season. It wasn't, though. It was Rizzo.

I'm pretty sure rmilia considers himself (or did last season) a Cubs fan.

 

[soxfan1468927]

OK let me explain to you. Didn't get into it earlier because I didn't want to derail a good thread but I'll use last year as an example. Primary value for me is wins but what does that entail? To me I value wins over quality teams, how a player performs in those games is vital ino. I also care very much about how a guy performs when the game is late innings or when his team is tied or trailing. In all those instances Harper's number drop off and in games vs teams over .500 they dropped off precipitously. Not sure where he ended up but with a few weeks left in the season he was batting .223 in games vs teams with a winning record and his OBP, RBI per game, HR per game were all dramatically lower than in his other games. He also hit .175 with RISP in those games and his performance was a large part of why the Nats record in those games was horrendous. Simply put he fattened up vs crap teams and did so excellently but his performance vs quality teams was BAD. I don't know how to figure WAR but if you did it for Harper in only games vs decent teams it'd be next to or below zero. The Nats won 83 games so knowing Harper's WAR was like what 9? 10? Can you tell me the value, to the Nats, if going 83-79 instead of 73-89?? I'll answer for you. It's nothing. Zip. Harper was bad vs good,teams and his team was realistically no better off because of his performance vs other bad teams.

I'm not sure if anyone brought this up last year, but have you taken a look at the stat Win Probability Added (WPA)? Both fangraphs and baseball-reference have it (slightly different variations) and it essentially measures a teams odds of winning prior to an at-bat compared to the odds after an at-bat, and can also be used for pitchers. I find it particularly useful with relievers over stats like saves or holds. So if you are down 10-0, and hit a solo home run, most stats would measure that the same as if you are tied 1-1 and hit a solo home run. I think you would agree that one home run is clearly more valuable than the other. WPA attempts to measure this. For what it's worth, Rizzo had the highest WPA in baseball last year. Probably due largely to his .995 OPS with RISP and 1.011 OPS with 2 outs and RISP.

 

[rmilia1]

I'm not sure if you mean that he batted 10 points worse than his season total, your incorrect .258, or his actual BA of .278 against teams .500 and above

I'm not sure if you mean that he batted 10 points worse than his season total, your incorrect .258, or his actual BA of .278 against teams .500 and above

I made a slash line calculator in excel of his PAs against playoff teams:

View attachment 111159

So, Bryce Harper slashed .272/.395/.556/.951 in 2015 against playoff teams (total bum, huh?). That BA is not 10 points less than .330, .258, or .278.

Measured by team ERA, those seven teams include the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th best pitching staffs in baseball and those 5 represent almost 90% of the above PAs.

I plugged the playoff teams' batting against stats into the slash line calculator:

View attachment 111160

The MLB average slash line in 2015 was .254/.317/.405/.721.

So, while facing the best pitching staffs in baseball, Harper BA'ed 18 points above MLB average, OBP'ed 78 points MLB average, SLG'ed 151 points above MLB average and OPS'ed 231 points above MLB average.

Putting this all into perspective, there were four guys that OPS'ed better than .951 for the season in 2015, and Bryce Harper did it against the best staffs (playoff teams) in baseball.

"That's the great thing about facts. They're easy to check." Derp.

You're right. Didn't have the Blue Jays numbers in my playoff numbers. And the other info is food too. Still not great against those teams. But better than I had it. Not sure why the Blue Jay stuff didn't transfer. Thanks for the correction.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Still not great against those teams.

 

[Iffster]

I have a bat, a ball, and a glove. I am happy.

I tried running the bases with a calculator and a laptop....I fell down.
I met Al Kaline and asked him what his lifetime wRC+ was....he punched me in the mouth.
I asked Donald Trump about sabermetrics and he said he'd deport the m'fuckers!!!!
I asked Tyler Collins about Advanced stats:

 

[Iffster]

Omar....leave me out of your ''Sales Pitches''....or your shoes will run yellow with piss.