Which side you want

[MilkSpiller22]

based on a 12 team dynasty...

Fantasypros on trade value

Smith=9 points
2026 early third= 9 points
FOR

2026 LATE 2nd= 17 points


so the Smith side wins in a 12 team league... by 1 point(basically a tie)...

now in 16 team league both the draft picks are going to take a pretty significant dip in value... while the player is going to remain at a similar value(if not become MORE valuable)...

so the small insignificant win in a 12 team league is going to be more significant in a 16 team league...



still close... but there is a clear winner....

 

[cwalke3408]

From the 30 secs of watching Smith tape.
He's an ok RB but pretty good in open space and at pass-catching. For KC, he is probably a great option to throw at kick returning or a depth option if Worthy or other receivers used in the screen game were to go down. Not sure if he makes the original 53-man roster, I think I rather take the chance on the future 2nd that could go btw pick 17-32

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Dynasty League trade analyzer for a 16 team league has Smith and 2026 3rd at 84.2. They have the 2026 2nd at 93.5. This sounds about right to me.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Dynasty League trade analyzer for a 16 team league has Smith and 2026 3rd at 84.2. They have the 2026 2nd at 93.5. This sounds about right to me.

Were you able to differentiate whether it was an early or late pick in the round?? Big difference if blind!!! The chance of an early 2nd for a late third would make it such a different trade.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Were you able to differentiate whether it was an early or late pick in the round?? Big difference if blind!!! The chance of an early 2nd for a late third would make it such a different trade.

They do not differentiate between early vs late for future picks. Yeah that can make a lot of difference if it is clear if the pick is one or the other. Some times it is easy to see if a roster stinks, thus likely early, other times it hard to predict.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

They do not differentiate between early vs late for future picks. Yeah that can make a lot of difference if it is clear if the pick is one or the other. Some times it is easy to see if a roster stinks, thus likely early, other times it hard to predict.

Agreed. I would rather have the 2nd rounder if I thought there was any chance for it to be early rounder.

But we were told here that the third round pick is the early rounder and 2nd is late.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Agreed. I would rather have the 2nd rounder if I thought there was any chance for it to be early rounder.

But we were told here that the third round pick is the early rounder and 2nd is late.

I believed he said the second looks like a bottom 6 team and the third a top six pick, but a injury could change the top 6 easy enough. Trade value wise a 2nd is always more attractive. As you mentioned, how you see Smith working out would be key. I'm not high on his chances to be valuable but someone else may see it differently. I don't think I'd give up a 2nd for Smith and a 3rd, would you? I would consider giving a 3rd straight up for Smith.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I believed he said the second looks like a bottom 6 team and the third a top six pick, but a injury could change the top 6 easy enough. Trade value wise a 2nd is always more attractive. As you mentioned, how you see Smith working out would be key. I'm not high on his chances to be valuable but someone else may see it differently. I don't think I'd give up a 2nd for Smith and a 3rd, would you? I would consider giving a 3rd straight up for Smith.

you got the picks reversed... at least under my interpretation of the trade... he said that the 2nd round is bottom round pick, and the third is a top round...

but you are certainly right that if we are talking 2026, anything can happen and the expected bottom 2nd can easily become a middle or even top of the rounder... but for this experiment, i am making the assumption that something surprising DOES NOT HAPPEN...

i am also making the assumption that i will be able to keep smith on my bench all season, and never need to drop him... which again, might be an unrealistic assumption, but it is the only way to actually go at the question asked in the OP...

with all those assumptions, i much prefer the Smith side... and it really doesnt even have much to do about smith, as i dont know much about him... i just dont see much of a difference between a pick in the range of 26-39... and i would rather see what i have in smith than simply upgrade a low value pick...


but again, if i believe that that pick has a chance to be a top 20 pick, i would happily do it... for any third round pick that i own...

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Milk is interpreting the pick swap accurately, it would be moving back from a pick in the high 20s to a pick in the high 30s and gaining Smith.

And I do have a roster spot available to hold him and see if he carves out a role beyond special teams

 

[SmokingMonkey]

And as scary as it sounds, I agree with Milk logic here - I'm not a good enough dart thrower to assume the guy i take in late 20s will be substantially better than one 10 picks later

 

[SmokingMonkey]

And as scary as it sounds, I agree with Milk logic here - I'm not a good enough dart thrower to assume the guy i take in late 20s will be substantially better than one 10 picks later

 

[TREFF]

I more or less agree with that particular piece of reasoning also.

Once you get past the first dozen or so prospects, depending on the year, it's more about intuition and 'luck', than knowing any specific player will be a strong asset vs any other random dude. There's still some measurables that you can realistically assign value to, but they are in short supply.

 

[averagejoe]

And as scary as it sounds, I agree with Milk logic here - I'm not a good enough dart thrower to assume the guy i take in late 20s will be substantially better than one 10 picks later

Let me share this and take it with a grain of salt....
In D2 (which is a 16-team league), my 3rd round picks have seemingly worked out better than my 2nd rounders.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Let me share this and take it with a grain of salt....
In D2 (which is a 16-team league), my 3rd round picks have seemingly worked out better than my 2nd rounders.

3rd rd WRs I've drafted over the last few seasons across various dynasty leagues: Puka Nacua, Tank Dell, Jayden Reed

2nd rd WRs: Terrance Marshall, Hakeem Butler, JJ Arcega-Whiteside

 

[TKOSpikes]

16tm full ppr dyno

Brashard Smith + future 3rd (from non-playoff team)

Or

Future 2nd (from playoff team)

Bird in hand. For me, a 2nd isn't enough to just throw away a dart.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

3rd rd WRs I've drafted over the last few seasons across various dynasty leagues: Puka Nacua, Tank Dell, Jayden Reed

2nd rd WRs: Terrance Marshall, Hakeem Butler, JJ Arcega-Whiteside

I think we remember the lucky picks in round 3 (because they stand out) and blow off the duds in round 3 (because it's no surprise). Go back in D2 and check your round 3 picks for reference in 2023 and 2024.

 

[TREFF]

3rd rd WRs I've drafted over the last few seasons across various dynasty leagues: Puka Nacua, Tank Dell, Jayden Reed

2nd rd WRs: Terrance Marshall, Hakeem Butler, JJ Arcega-Whiteside

I scored Kupp in the third in multiple leagues..but he's my exception. You can count Jalen Hurts too I guess (but I traded his ass for peanuts)

Also scored guys like R. Stevenson, and Brian Robinson in the second.

Also drafted utter SHIT in the first on multiple occasions

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Getting back to Smith and the Chiefs I find I no longer desire Chief players per say and Reid has gone with a roster of many parts where none are particularly valuable by themselves other then Mahomes. If he found a stud that would change (like once he realized Tyreek was a freak) but don't see Smith as that player. Rather I see him as a player for a specific role in specific situations only and likely doesn't ever get into anyone's starting lineup in FF ever. However if you watched his tape and saw something special then sure give up that 2nd then.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Go back in D2 and check your round 3 picks for reference in 2023 and 2024.

I'm an awful example to use in D2, rarely have 2nd and 3rd picks left come draft day.

In recent years, even tho they aren't on my team any longer, taking Tillman in the 3rd was better than Legette in the 2nd, but I pretty much never have guys from both rounds in the same draft in D2

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Appreciate the discussion from everyone, I haven't made any formal offers yet and by the looks of it, some say the 2nd has more value others the rookie + 3rd, so at least I feel like I have the right pieces in play for a fair trade