What are Nick Markakis' Chances of Getting 3000 hits?

[PolarVortex]

This is Markakis' age 34 season. Fewest hits needed to reach 3000, after age 34, of all players in the 3000 hits club. I added Markakis to this list

1. Cobb 3053 though age 34
2. Aaron 208
3. Yount 253
4. ARod 328
5. Musial 403
6. Speaker 424
7. Clemente 441
8. Jeter 465
9. PooHoles 481
10. Kaline 554
11. Beltre 578
12. Rose 580
13. Carew 606
14. Collins 618
15. Ripken 629
16. Paul Big Poison Warner 655
17. Mays 680
18. Yaz 733
19. Nap Lajoie 770
20. Nick Markakis 779
21. Brett 781
22. Gwynn 786
23. Brock 805
24. Murray 832
25. Palmiero 852
26. Boggs 902
27. Molitor 914
28. Biggio 1029
29. Winfield 1044
30. Rickey Henderson 1059
31. Cap Anson 1220
32. Honus Wagner 1292
33. Ichiro 1373

 

[Chewbaccer]

Pretty slim. He's had a really good career, but he's also probably the worst player on that list.

 

[richig07]

If he plays until he's 41-42 or so... I'd say he has a worthwhile chance. It isn't out of the question, but it ain't likely either.

Weird having this conversation about a guy who just made his first ASG in his 13th season. If you look at his baseball reference page. It's just a trademark of consistency. Never great, yet ALWAYS played a full season (one year with 104 games). ALWAYS hit over .275-ish and most years was over .290. Always checked in with at least 170-ish hits.

 

[PolarVortex]

This is Markakis' age 34 season. Fewest hits needed to reach 3000, after age 34, of all players in the 3000 hits club. I added Markakis to this list

1. Cobb 3053 though age 34
2. Aaron 208
3. Yount 253
4. ARod 328
5. Musial 403
6. Speaker 424
7. Clemente 441
8. Jeter 465
9. PooHoles 481
10. Kaline 554
11. Beltre 578
12. Rose 580
13. Carew 606
14. Collins 618
15. Ripken 629
16. Paul Big Poison Warner 655
17. Mays 680
18. Yaz 733
19. Nap Lajoie 770
20. Nick Markakis 779
21. Brett 781
22. Gwynn 786
23. Brock 805
24. Murray 832
25. Palmiero 852
26. Boggs 902
27. Molitor 914
28. Biggio 1029
29. Winfield 1044
30. Rickey Henderson 1059
31. Cap Anson 1220
32. Honus Wagner 1292
33. Ichiro 1373

As long as he keeps his health and can find a starting gig, he's going to make it. But it will put voters in a dilemma. 3000 hits has always been a watermark for unofficial guaranteed induction. But can they really vote Markakis in? I don't think so.

 

[StanMarsh51]

As long as he keeps his health and can find a starting gig, he's going to make it. But it will put voters in a dilemma. 3000 hits has always been a watermark for unofficial guaranteed induction. But can they really vote Markakis in? I don't think so.

That's going to be the hard part....if he reverts to his 2013-2017 form or worse (which is probably more likely than him replicating his 2018), he's not going to have much opportunity to start.

 

[Indrid Cold]

It's pretty much a given at his age that Markakis is going to get worse, so he will rack up fewer and fewer hits per season if he can even manage to start and will probably not be good enough to start, anyway.

 

[broncosmitty]

15-1

Five healthy seasons and it could happen.

 

[PolarVortex]

That's going to be the hard part....if he reverts to his 2013-2017 form or worse (which is probably more likely than him replicating his 2018), he's not going to have much opportunity to start.

I agree. The renaissance-type season he is having this year will make it somewhat easier for him to land a 3-year deal as he becomes a free agent in October. If he makes $11+ mill per year (entirely possible seeing as he is still a defensive asset), GMs will be relunctant to allow the team manager to sit him very often. A lot is going to depend on the next 3 years. If he can get 420+ starts over the next three seasons, he should be at about 2700 hits going into his age 38 season. At that point, if he transitions into a DH then he should reach 3000 hits. As a 38 year old, it will be easier for him to find a starting gig as a DH than it would be as a RF/LFer.

I always thought Beltre would reach 3000 hits way back when most people were saying he didn't have a prayer. And I've long believed that Markakis would also make it. The guy that surprised me was ichiro.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Pretty slim. He's had a really good career, but he's also probably the worst player on that list.

You've got too many words in that post, by one

 

[DragonfromTO]

As long as he keeps his health and can find a starting gig, he's going to make it. But it will put voters in a dilemma. 3000 hits has always been a watermark for unofficial guaranteed induction. But can they really vote Markakis in? I don't think so.

So basically, as long as the two big things that could stop him don't stop him he'll make it.

 

[PolarVortex]

So basically, as long as the two big things that could stop him don't stop him he'll make it.

No, other things could stop him, like reduced bat speed or the beginning of career decline at a typical age (31-33) rather than no career decline in sight which is where he is at now. Or lack of motivation and desire.

So yeah, your piss poor attempt at sarcasm was a pretty big fail.

 

[DragonfromTO]

No, other things could stop him, like reduced bat speed or the beginning of career decline at a typical age (31-33) rather than no career decline in sight which is where he is at now. Or lack of motivation and desire.

So yeah, your piss poor attempt at sarcasm was a pretty big fail.

Isn't the big danger to 3000 there (that said decline would lead to teams not wanting to start him) basically one of your options though? If he declines, no one will want to give him a starting gig.

Sorry, I guess I thought we were familiar enough that I could be a little jocular about it. My mistake.

 

[PolarVortex]

Isn't the big danger to 3000 there (that said decline would lead to teams not wanting to start him) basically one of your options though? If he declines, no one will want to give him a starting gig.

Sorry, I guess I thought we were familiar enough that I could be a little jocular about it. My mistake.

His timing is working in his favor. He has had his best year in 6-7 seasons at the same time that he is fixing to be a free agent. And being still in his mid-30s, it probably takes a 3-year offer to lock him up. That is what is greatly enhancing his shot at 3000 hits. If he had had a repeat of 2015-2107, I doubt if he would get many offers this winter and very doubtful if anyone would offer more than 2 years.

 

[StanMarsh51]

The renaissance-type season he is having this year will make it somewhat easier for him to land a 3-year deal as he becomes a free agent in October. If he makes $11+ mill per year (entirely possible seeing as he is still a defensive asset), GMs will be relunctant to allow the team manager to sit him very often. .

Teams moreso than ever before aren't afraid of just releasing the guy and eating the contract (BJ Upton, Carl Crawford, Hanley, Sandoval, A-Rod, Josh Hamilton, Jose Reyes), so if he stinks up the joint I don't think there will be much pressure to play him.

 

[navamind]

He's regressed significantly in the 2nd half. After hitting .323/.389/.488 with a 133 wRC+ in the 1st half (bolstered by a .344 BABIP), he's hitting .278/.337/.420 (.294 BABIP) with a 99 wRC+ since the ASB.

 

[tducey]

A player I've always liked. Didn't know he had so many hits. I think he'll get 3000.

 

[Pure Steel]

Wow, what a bunch of compilers.......

 

[msgkings322]

As long as he keeps his health and can find a starting gig, he's going to make it. But it will put voters in a dilemma. 3000 hits has always been a watermark for unofficial guaranteed induction. But can they really vote Markakis in? I don't think so.

Hey it's a little like the hitters' version of 300 wins, ultimate counting stat...Don Sutton is in the Hall though.

I'm rooting for Markakis to get 3000 I think that'd be kind of cool.

 

[VikingFan2k2]

I like him, but if he gets there somehow, he's going to be the first 3000 hit club member not in the HOF (Minus the steroid guy).