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Updated: January 10, 2012, 6:35 PM ET
Brees' decision-making will cost SaintsBaiting Brees into taking risks is imperative for San Francisco to beat New Orleans
By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
Archive
If Drew Brees doesn't protect the football, the Niners have a good shot at an upset.
One of the relatively unsung progenitors of the football analytics field was Dallas Cowboys coach Tom Landry.
Landry's Cowboys were one of the first NFL teams to use a computer, and some of the things they had the computer look for were statistical trends that caused teams to win or lose. Landry was able to use these trends to establish single-game numeric goals that, if achieved, were so powerful in determining the outcome of games that they almost assured victory. Numeric goals can be diminished, of course, because they are so often pieced together after the fact. Process matters, too.
And finding numeric goals of that nature this week with process in mind certainly would look like a daunting task for San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh. After all, his Niners are facing a New Orleans Saints offense that set an NFL record for most yards gained in a season (7,474) and became only the fifth team in league history to score 540 or more points (547).
As discouraging as this type of goal setting might look at first glance, however, upon closer review it becomes clear that the 49ers have to reach only two achievable goals to give themselves a very good chance at pulling off the upset.
The first goal stems from the idea that even high-scoring teams don't fare well in shootout-style contests.
From 1978 to 1982, the Air Coryell version of the San Diego Chargers had a 32-3 record in games in which they allowed fewer than 20 points.
When the opponent scored 20 or more points, however, the Chargers' mark dropped to 19-26. Because the Chargers scored at least 20 points in 35 of the 45 games in which their opponents equaled or topped the 20-point mark, it shows that most of these were truly shootout-style games, yet Dan Fouts & Co. still fell well short of a winning record.
This same trend holds true with Drew Brees and the Saints. His New Orleans teams are 26-31 in games when he started and the opponent scored 20 or more points, and that is despite the fact that the Saints scored 20 or more points in 46 of those games. That isn't an early career anomaly, either, as the Saints are 8-8 in games of that nature in the past two years.
That is a not a good omen when noting that New Orleans has allowed 20 or more points in six of its eight road games this season. The Saints had a 3-3 record in those contests, with two of the losses occurring against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the St. Louis Rams, teams that won six games combined.
It gets even worse when noting that the 49ers scored 20 or more points in every home game this season and have equaled or topped that point level in 14 of their past 16 home contests. The rate at which the Niners have played at home implies that this game could become something closer to a shootout, and that might actually favor San Fran.
Although the scoring total in and of itself is important, it does need to be combined with the second goal to achieve its full impact.
That other goal is the old cliché of winning the turnover battle.
The statistical backup for why this is paramount to a 49ers win can be found in the Saints' record when giving up 20 or more points and winning/tying/losing the turnover battle. In 32 of the Brees-started games in which the Saints have given up 20 or more points, New Orleans also lost the turnover battle. Its record in those contests was an abysmal 7-25.
In the nine games in which the Saints gave up 20 points and tied the turnover war, they had a 6-3 mark. In the 16 games of this nature when New Orleans had a turnover edge, it was 13-3.
This illustrates the huge impact getting the upper hand in this area can give San Francisco, and there are many reasons to think its odds of making it to that goal are quite high.
Chief on this list would be the turnover margins for the Saints and 49ers this season.
New Orleans was one of only five teams to have fewer than 20 giveaways this year (defined as the total number of lost fumbles and interceptions), but the Saints offset that by also being one of only seven teams to post fewer than 20 takeaways. Their overall mark of minus-3 in the giveaway/takeaway category ranks tied for 19th in the league. In contrast, the 49ers' plus-28 in this category easily ranked first in the league.
Some of the Saints' turnover woes were thanks to their horrible record of turning pick chances into interceptions. The Saints dropped 16 interception chances this season, a mark that accounted for nearly half of their 35 near interceptions.
The high near interception total might be a potential big plus if the Saints were facing a risk-taking quarterback, but San Francisco QB Alex Smith had a Tom Brady-like 1.0 percent bad decision rate (BDR) this season.
BDR measures how often a passer makes a mental mistake that leads to a turnover or a near turnover, such as a dropped interception. Anything under 2 percent in this metric is considered a quality mark for a quarterback, and keeping it at 1 percent is quite rare. We don't tend to think of Smith as a guy who doesn't make bad decisions, but he really has been a different quarterback this season.
New Orleans could also be in trouble because Brees' history in the BDR metric shows he is very much a risk-taker. Anything near or above the 3 percent mark in this statistic is indicative of someone taking too many chances, and Brees has been in that category multiple times in the eight seasons this metric has been tracked (including his BDR rate of 2.9 percent this season).
That is not a good combination when facing a San Francisco defense that posted a superb 3.8 percent BDR and had 24 near interceptions of its own.
What this means is that if Brees goes with his usual approach of aggressively pushing the ball down the field, often with less caution than people realize, it will almost assure the Niners a win in the turnover-margin department. A win there could well be the edge San Francisco needs to earn a berth in the NFC Championship Game.
KC Joyner, aka the Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. He also can be found on Twitter @kcjoynertfs and at his website. He is the author of an annual fantasy football draft guide, which is available, and "Blindsided: Why the Left Tackle is Overrated and Other Contrarian Football Thoughts."
Brees' decision-making will cost SaintsBaiting Brees into taking risks is imperative for San Francisco to beat New Orleans
By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
Archive
If Drew Brees doesn't protect the football, the Niners have a good shot at an upset.
One of the relatively unsung progenitors of the football analytics field was Dallas Cowboys coach Tom Landry.
Landry's Cowboys were one of the first NFL teams to use a computer, and some of the things they had the computer look for were statistical trends that caused teams to win or lose. Landry was able to use these trends to establish single-game numeric goals that, if achieved, were so powerful in determining the outcome of games that they almost assured victory. Numeric goals can be diminished, of course, because they are so often pieced together after the fact. Process matters, too.
And finding numeric goals of that nature this week with process in mind certainly would look like a daunting task for San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh. After all, his Niners are facing a New Orleans Saints offense that set an NFL record for most yards gained in a season (7,474) and became only the fifth team in league history to score 540 or more points (547).
As discouraging as this type of goal setting might look at first glance, however, upon closer review it becomes clear that the 49ers have to reach only two achievable goals to give themselves a very good chance at pulling off the upset.
The first goal stems from the idea that even high-scoring teams don't fare well in shootout-style contests.
From 1978 to 1982, the Air Coryell version of the San Diego Chargers had a 32-3 record in games in which they allowed fewer than 20 points.
When the opponent scored 20 or more points, however, the Chargers' mark dropped to 19-26. Because the Chargers scored at least 20 points in 35 of the 45 games in which their opponents equaled or topped the 20-point mark, it shows that most of these were truly shootout-style games, yet Dan Fouts & Co. still fell well short of a winning record.
This same trend holds true with Drew Brees and the Saints. His New Orleans teams are 26-31 in games when he started and the opponent scored 20 or more points, and that is despite the fact that the Saints scored 20 or more points in 46 of those games. That isn't an early career anomaly, either, as the Saints are 8-8 in games of that nature in the past two years.
That is a not a good omen when noting that New Orleans has allowed 20 or more points in six of its eight road games this season. The Saints had a 3-3 record in those contests, with two of the losses occurring against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the St. Louis Rams, teams that won six games combined.
It gets even worse when noting that the 49ers scored 20 or more points in every home game this season and have equaled or topped that point level in 14 of their past 16 home contests. The rate at which the Niners have played at home implies that this game could become something closer to a shootout, and that might actually favor San Fran.
Although the scoring total in and of itself is important, it does need to be combined with the second goal to achieve its full impact.
That other goal is the old cliché of winning the turnover battle.
The statistical backup for why this is paramount to a 49ers win can be found in the Saints' record when giving up 20 or more points and winning/tying/losing the turnover battle. In 32 of the Brees-started games in which the Saints have given up 20 or more points, New Orleans also lost the turnover battle. Its record in those contests was an abysmal 7-25.
In the nine games in which the Saints gave up 20 points and tied the turnover war, they had a 6-3 mark. In the 16 games of this nature when New Orleans had a turnover edge, it was 13-3.
This illustrates the huge impact getting the upper hand in this area can give San Francisco, and there are many reasons to think its odds of making it to that goal are quite high.
Chief on this list would be the turnover margins for the Saints and 49ers this season.
New Orleans was one of only five teams to have fewer than 20 giveaways this year (defined as the total number of lost fumbles and interceptions), but the Saints offset that by also being one of only seven teams to post fewer than 20 takeaways. Their overall mark of minus-3 in the giveaway/takeaway category ranks tied for 19th in the league. In contrast, the 49ers' plus-28 in this category easily ranked first in the league.
Some of the Saints' turnover woes were thanks to their horrible record of turning pick chances into interceptions. The Saints dropped 16 interception chances this season, a mark that accounted for nearly half of their 35 near interceptions.
The high near interception total might be a potential big plus if the Saints were facing a risk-taking quarterback, but San Francisco QB Alex Smith had a Tom Brady-like 1.0 percent bad decision rate (BDR) this season.
BDR measures how often a passer makes a mental mistake that leads to a turnover or a near turnover, such as a dropped interception. Anything under 2 percent in this metric is considered a quality mark for a quarterback, and keeping it at 1 percent is quite rare. We don't tend to think of Smith as a guy who doesn't make bad decisions, but he really has been a different quarterback this season.
New Orleans could also be in trouble because Brees' history in the BDR metric shows he is very much a risk-taker. Anything near or above the 3 percent mark in this statistic is indicative of someone taking too many chances, and Brees has been in that category multiple times in the eight seasons this metric has been tracked (including his BDR rate of 2.9 percent this season).
That is not a good combination when facing a San Francisco defense that posted a superb 3.8 percent BDR and had 24 near interceptions of its own.
What this means is that if Brees goes with his usual approach of aggressively pushing the ball down the field, often with less caution than people realize, it will almost assure the Niners a win in the turnover-margin department. A win there could well be the edge San Francisco needs to earn a berth in the NFC Championship Game.
KC Joyner, aka the Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. He also can be found on Twitter @kcjoynertfs and at his website. He is the author of an annual fantasy football draft guide, which is available, and "Blindsided: Why the Left Tackle is Overrated and Other Contrarian Football Thoughts."
