We Need A 3-4 DE: How About Muhammad Wilkerson?

[redskinsfan]

With Jason Hatcher contemplating retirement, we're getting awfully thin at our DE spot. (If he doesn't retire, he's going to be cut anyways.) We can't can't just fill that position by drafting a rookie or by re-signing player like Frank Kearse. We'll have to look at the FA market, but unfortunately for people like us, the market for 3-4 DEs is awfully weak. The only guy worth anything is awfully good -- and will come at a pretty darn high price. That guy is Muhammad Wilkerson, who's rookie contract just expired.

One bad thing about him: he's recovering from a broken leg injury he suffered on the last game of the season. But it looks like his recovery is going well. The question is whether the Jets will have enough dough to keep him around. Their cap number right now is about $141M, which, with an expected cap at $160M, gives them around $19M in cap space. However, they still need to sign Ryan Fitzpatrick and have other FAs such as Chris Ivory off their books.

Our cap number is $146M at this very moment. But that includes RGIII's $16.155M option. When he gets cut, our cap drops to $130M, which would give us $30M in cap space. And when we cut Hatcher and Andre Roberts, that'll clear up $7M, giving us around $37M in cap room. That will be far more than the Jets will have unless they can somehow get really creative with restructuring their contracts. The Jets have mentioned that they'll use the franchise tag on Wilkerson if they can't reach a long term deal with him. Word is that talks with him haven't gone too well. If they can't reach a deal by the start of the franchise tag period, which begins in late February, they're looking at a franchise tag for DEs that will be around $15.5M. That tag will put bump them up right near the cap ceiling. And then there's Fitzpatrick's deal.

Maybe the Jets find a way to fit both Wilkerson, Fitzpatrick, and the rest of their FAs and rookies under the cap. Maybe Scotty doesn't want to pay all that money for Wilkerson. But we are in dire need of a 3-4 DE. While Wilkerson would be expensive, he would fill a need, he's 26 years old, and we've got the cap space to sign both him and Cousins and other FAs / rookies this year.

Anyways, this is just a thought, and maybe a crazy one at that.

 

[Davis_Mike]

At this point, the jets have about $20 mil($17 + $3 mil in cap rollover) in space for 2016. They could also easily free up another $15-37 mil in cap cuts or restructures. So if they can't sign him to an extension, they likely will franchise him. Or franchise/trade him.

I would take him in a heartbeat on the Cardinals.

 

[Buffalo_Nickel_1]

no way stay away we can find a 3-4 lineman in the draft or some undrafted rookie but keep in mine that u can also take a 4-3 dt and put him at the le or re in 3 -4

 

[Buffalo_Nickel_1]

i still think we will not be very'active in free agenice but we do have to make upgrades we are still a 9-7 team

 

[gkekoa]

I will pass. I think we have had enough of 100 million dollar FA DL. I also think there is no way SM takes a run either.

 

[ehb5]

I will pass. I think we have had enough of 100 million dollar FA DL. I also think there is no way SM takes a run either.

He wont hit 100 mil though. Maybe 5/65? Not sure if that makes it worth it or not but he is really good - and just 26.

 

[skinsdad62]

if you are going to pay money for an FA then a 26 year old is worth the shot over a 30 yr old center

 

[Ritzarmy]

If SM wants him then yes, if Snyder wants him then no. Always do the opposite of Snyder. What ever SM wants we should do it. The man can suggest we sign Haynesworth to another $100billion contract and I trust him that much.

 

[redskinsfan]

At this point, the jets have about $20 mil($17 + $3 mil in cap rollover) in space for 2016. They could also easily free up another $15-37 mil in cap cuts or restructures. So if they can't sign him to an extension, they likely will franchise him. Or franchise/trade him.

I would take him in a heartbeat on the Cardinals.

Not sure where you're getting that figure for restructuring. Keep in mind too that restructuring in terms of cash-over-cap can have consequences later on for other FAs. Wilkerson and the Jets are far, far apart in negotiations, per some reports, and they can ill afford to franchise the guy with Fitzpatrick's contract looming. To be sure, the Redskins, if they wanted Wilkerson, also need to negotiate with their own QB. But they've got a lot more in terms of hard cap money than do the Jets.

The players with the highest cap numbers on the Jets that can be re-worked -- D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Brandon Marshall, and Nick Mangold -- are all 31 or over. (Revis has the highest cap number at $17M, but that consists entirely of a guaranteed salary in 2016.) If you re-do their contracts, you're risking dead money hits in the future given that their prime years are about to be over very soon. The Jets could cut loose someone like Ferguson and clear more than $9M in cap space, which could be used to sign both Fitzpatrick and Wilkerson. But then they'd be losing the LT that has anchored their line for years. Same with Mangold at center. And cutting ties with Marshall would create a huge hole at WR. Keep also in mind that they have other FA they might want to sign such as Ivory, Powell, and Calvin Pace.

While the Jets could work some interesting caponomics to retain both Wilkerson and Fitzpatrick, they'd almost be certainly be pushing potential dead money hits down the road. While the cap will continue to increase, the Jets will be faced with either cutting older vets that no longer merit the salary they're getting and thereby taking big dead money hits or keeping those old vets on staff to stave off cap consequences of decisions they've made this year.

We shall see.

 

[Davis_Mike]

Not sure where you're getting that figure for restructuring. Keep in mind too that restructuring in terms of cash-over-cap can have consequences later on for other FAs. Wilkerson and the Jets are far, far apart in negotiations, per some reports, and they can ill afford to franchise the guy with Fitzpatrick's contract looming. To be sure, the Redskins, if they wanted Wilkerson, also need to negotiate with their own QB. But they've got a lot more in terms of hard cap money than do the Jets.

The players with the highest cap numbers on the Jets that can be re-worked -- D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Brandon Marshall, and Nick Mangold -- are all 31 or over. (Revis has the highest cap number at $17M, but that consists entirely of a guaranteed salary in 2016.) If you re-do their contracts, you're risking dead money hits in the future given that their prime years are about to be over very soon. The Jets could cut loose someone like Ferguson and clear more than $9M in cap space, which could be used to sign both Fitzpatrick and Wilkerson. But then they'd be losing the LT that has anchored their line for years. Same with Mangold at center. And cutting ties with Marshall would create a huge hole at WR. Keep also in mind that they have other FA they might want to sign such as Ivory, Powell, and Calvin Pace.

While the Jets could work some interesting caponomics to retain both Wilkerson and Fitzpatrick, they'd almost be certainly be pushing potential dead money hits down the road. While the cap will continue to increase, the Jets will be faced with either cutting older vets that no longer merit the salary they're getting and thereby taking big dead money hits or keeping those old vets on staff to stave off cap consequences of decisions they've made this year.

We shall see.

I said cap cut or rework. They have $20 mil available right now.

Revis - His 2016 $17 mil cap number could easily be cut to $9.5 mil by simply cutting him a restructure bonus check for $10 mil at the start of the offseason.

Cromartie - Cutting him would save the team $8 mil with no cap penalties. Skrine & Williams can fill his absence.

Ferguson & Mangold - Both could either be cut outright or asked to take a pay cut.

Others - There are a few other players who could get the axe simply because they are worth the money. While they may not count more than a few mil against the cap, those salaries do add up.


Look it's very easy for teams to massage the cap to create space. Two simple moves, Revis & Cromartie, already opens up $15.5 mil.So it shouldn't be a problem for them to find money if they want Wilkerson back. And they definitely won't let him go for free.

Besides, it's not going to cost that much to retain Fitz. I am willing to bet he gets no more than $7-9mil. And the DE tag will be just north of $15 mil. So the total cost of signing those 2 will only be in the $22-24 mil range if the tag is used. Lower if they work out an extension.

Don't assume the cap space teams currently have right now is the same space they will have shortly after the start of the new league year.

 

[skinsdad62]

yeah its too early to tell who will actually be free or not

 

[redskinsfan]

I said cap cut or rework. They have $20 mil available right now.

Revis - His 2016 $17 mil cap number could easily be cut to $9.5 mil by simply cutting him a restructure bonus check for $10 mil at the start of the offseason.

Cromartie - Cutting him would save the team $8 mil with no cap penalties. Skrine & Williams can fill his absence.

Ferguson & Mangold - Both could either be cut outright or asked to take a pay cut.

Others - There are a few other players who could get the axe simply because they are worth the money. While they may not count more than a few mil against the cap, those salaries do add up.


Look it's very easy for teams to massage the cap to create space. Two simple moves, Revis & Cromartie, already opens up $15.5 mil.So it shouldn't be a problem for them to find money if they want Wilkerson back. And they definitely won't let him go for free.

Besides, it's not going to cost that much to retain Fitz. I am willing to bet he gets no more than $7-9mil. And the DE tag will be just north of $15 mil. So the total cost of signing those 2 will only be in the $22-24 mil range if the tag is used. Lower if they work out an extension.

Don't assume the cap space teams currently have right now is the same space they will have shortly after the start of the new league year.

First of all, you can't restructure Revis' $17M cap number because of all that is guaranteed this season. You can cut Ferguson, Mangold and/or Cromartie, but that then leaves you without key pieces of your team missing that brought you to the cusp of a playoff berth this year. What I hear -- and I'll admit that I'm not in the know like others are about the Jets -- is that Bowles wants to keep everyone together to make a playoff push for next year. So, cutting players doesn't appear to be Plan A for the Jets. In addition, if you think that Fitz gets $7-9$M, you're dreaming. He'll get far more from a team like the Texans or the Browns to play there. And if you're thinking of franchising him, that'll cost you at least $19M for the non-exclusive tag, and $25M for the exclusive franchise tag. Fitz will cost you at least $12-$15M, if not more. I'm not sure when -- or if -- he'll reach a deal with the Jets, but the market for QBs this year may very well be set by the deal Kirk Cousins gets with the Redskins. That contract may become the benchmark for QBs like Fitz and Sam Bradford going forward.

 

[Davis_Mike]

At this point, the jets have about $20 mil($17 + $3 mil in cap rollover) in space for 2016. They could also easily free up another $15-37 mil in cap cuts or restructures. So if they can't sign him to an extension, they likely will franchise him. Or franchise/trade him.

Looks like I called it. I'll admit that one was pretty obvious.

First of all, you can't restructure Revis' $17M cap number because of all that is guaranteed this season. You can cut Ferguson, Mangold and/or Cromartie, but that then leaves you without key pieces of your team missing that brought you to the cusp of a playoff berth this year. What I hear -- and I'll admit that I'm not in the know like others are about the Jets -- is that Bowles wants to keep everyone together to make a playoff push for next year. So, cutting players doesn't appear to be Plan A for the Jets. In addition, if you think that Fitz gets $7-9$M, you're dreaming. He'll get far more from a team like the Texans or the Browns to play there. And if you're thinking of franchising him, that'll cost you at least $19M for the non-exclusive tag, and $25M for the exclusive franchise tag. Fitz will cost you at least $12-$15M, if not more. I'm not sure when -- or if -- he'll reach a deal with the Jets, but the market for QBs this year may very well be set by the deal Kirk Cousins gets with the Redskins. That contract may become the benchmark for QBs like Fitz and Sam Bradford going forward.

Yes, they can cut Revis a $16 mil check right now & lower his cap number to $5 mil.

Re-working Revis' deal could solve Jets' cap woes, but it's risky

Let's say they converted $16 million of his $17 million base salary into a signing bonus. Revis' 2016 cap charge would be lowered to $5 million, saving $12 million. That's big. The downside is the bonus would be pro-rated over the final four years, increasing his cap charge by $4 million in each year. His number in 2017 would balloon to $19.3 million. It might not be the smartest strategy, considering his age (31 next season). Right now, they have the ability to walk away in 2018 without a cap hit. That changes if they restructure.

 

[redskinsfan]

Looks like I called it. I'll admit that one was pretty obvious.




Yes, they can cut Revis a $16 mil check right now & lower his cap number to $5 mil.

Re-working Revis' deal could solve Jets' cap woes, but it's risky

According to Over The Cap, all of Revis' $17M salary in 2016 is guaranteed. If that's the case, which I assumed to be true, Cimini is wrong. You can't simply convert his 2016 base salary into a signing bonus which the team then gets to amortize over the length of the contract. That isn't to say, of course, there are many other ways to deal with Revis' bloated cap number, some of which I've previously pointed out. The most obvious way is for him simply to take a pay cut. Another would be for him to agree to convert the guaranteed salary into to non-guaranteed base salary and then decide to convert it to a signing bonus. But my point here was (again assuming that Over The Cap's numbers are correct) your and Cimini's view that Revis' cap problem can be easily solved by the normal cash-over-cap methodology is overly simplistic and wrong.

The other issue is whether and why Revis would agree to re-working his contract. Cimini is correct that if Revis ultimately decides to somehow re-convert his (guaranteed) base salary this year to a signing bonus, he'd still get the same amount of money this year. However, if that happens, that would make Revise that much more difficult to cut in 2017. Unlike this year where cutting Revis would cost the Jets more than $8M in cap space, releasing him next year would clear more than $7M. Why would this be beneficial to Revis? Because he'd be 31 and in line for one last big pay day and to play for a team of his choosing. If the Jets take Cimini's suggestion, cutting Revis in 2017 would cost them about $5M in cap space, assuming that other provisions of his current contract remain the same. While I'm not saying that Revis won't re-work his contract, the point here is that it's not nearly as simple as him agreeing to do so for the good of the team.

This all, of course, is related to putting the tag on Wilkerson. If that happens and the tag costs about $15M, that will put the Jets over the expected league cap number of about $155M. The Jets 51-player cap number is currently $143M and Wilkerson's cap would put them at $158M. Let's say that Revis ends up clearing up $12M in cap space. That still puts them at $146M with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Damon Harrison and Chris Ivory to sign. Also keep in mind that you need about $6M to sign rookies. Where's all the rest of the cap space going to come from? The Jets could employ the cash-over-cap stuff with others with large non-guaranteed salaries this year. But those players are older and putting cashing them out like that (along with Revis) will assuredly wreck the Jets cap more than it is this year.

So, yes, solutions can be had. Never said that that couldn't be done. The question is whether it's truly a good idea and what the ramifications will be starting next year and beyond.