We know snow has hurt production... what about subzero temps? (Pack at Bears)

[richig07]

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Chicago+IL+USIL0225:1:US

Sunday - High of -1... low of -14. Wind at 13 MPH with gusts up to 20-25 MPH. Windchill could be more than 30 below zero. This is going to be quite similar to the Minnesota/Seattle playoff game last year. Very extreme cold.

What are our thoughts on how this could effect Jordy, Adams, Rodgers, Alshon, Howard... etc...?

Have to wonder about Rodgers calf in that kind of cold.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Yup. Tough to keep the muscles warm... strains are prone to stiffen much easier than regular functions. Still wouldn't bench any Packers or Howard.

 

[ehb5]

Has snow hurt production? Im pretty sure it makes life easier for offenses.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Has snow hurt production? Im pretty sure it makes life easier for offenses.

High of zero, low of -15 Sunday, mmmm I'd be nervous about counting on anyone playing in that weather. Doesn't mean that nobody could have a good day, but I'd be weighing my options.

 

[ehb5]

High of zero, low of -15 Sunday, mmmm I'd be nervous about counting on anyone playing in that weather. Doesn't mean that nobody could have a good day, but I'd be weighing my options.

Well this case seems extreme so you may be right. But 20 degrees and snowing Im pretty sure benefits the offense.

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

I got Rodgers in a league and I am going to stick with him.

 

[richig07]

Has snow hurt production? Im pretty sure it makes life easier for offenses.

Ask those who started Kaep, Vance McDonald or Marquess Wilson in Chicago two weeks ago. Or Adams/Lamar Miller in GB that day.

EDIT: Ben and his receivers in BUF. It can certainly help RB's, but kills the passing game.

 

[ehb5]

Ask those who started Kaep, Vance McDonald or Marquess Wilson in Chicago two weeks ago. Or Adams/Lamar Miller in GB that day.

EDIT: Ben and his receivers in BUF. It can certainly help RB's, but kills the passing game.

Was about to say Bell last week says differently. I think there are plenty of examples of passing games thriving in the snow though.

 

[richig07]

Was about to say Bell last week says differently. I think there are plenty of examples of passing games thriving in the snow though.

I've been playing fantasy for quite a long time, and watching the NFL even longer. I have never once seen a passing game benefit from snow. There's a reason Vegas immediately moves the total for any bad weather game lower upon a forecast predicting very poor weather. Being from Chicago and watching the NFC north, I've seen a lot of bad weather games. They mostly wind up being running/defensive battles.

There wasn't a single pass completed until the second quarter in that snow game between the Niners/Bears, and Kaep only attempted 5 all game. A wet ball is very hard to grip and throw. Barkley had more success going 11/17, but they were very short throws and it was very sloppy.

Now, I'm sure your opinion comes from your own experience and I can't argue that. However, I just personally have never heard anyone get excited about snow for a passing attack.

 

[ehb5]

I've been playing fantasy for quite a long time, and watching the NFL even longer. I have never once seen a passing game benefit from snow. There's a reason Vegas immediately moves the total for any bad weather game lower upon a forecast predicting very poor weather. Being from Chicago and watching the NFC north, I've seen a lot of bad weather games. They mostly wind up being running/defensive battles.

There wasn't a single pass completed until the second quarter in that snow game between the Niners/Bears, and Kaep only attempted 5 all game. A wet ball is very hard to grip and throw. Barkley had more success going 11/17, but they were very short throws and it was very sloppy.

Now, I'm sure your opinion comes from your own experience and I can't argue that. However, I just personally have never heard anyone get excited about snow for a passing attack.

Well to be honest my opinion comes from 2 places really. Ive heard it mentioned several times that offenses gain an advantage because defenses cant react to cuts well which seems logical. And the other place was the other week when somebody I follow on twitter who is probably the smartest most statistically minded person I follow stated that snow helps offenses. So I certainly could be wrong. I dont really have the evidence to argue one way or another which is why my original post phrased my point as a question. I really have no idea what the effects of snow are on football games statistically speaking - but Im hesitant to assume it hurts. If I had to guess I would say severe wind is the real factor but again Im just spitballin here.

 

[averagejoe]

Just did a search on ProFootball Reference of games played 9 degrees or lower from 1940 to 2016.

48 such games.
The average score for the 96 teams involved was 19.29 points. Not bad.
That's roughly an average of 2 TD per team. Almost 3.

 

[richig07]

Well to be honest my opinion comes from 2 places really. Ive heard it mentioned several times that offenses gain an advantage because defenses cant react to cuts well which seems logical. And the other place was the other week when somebody I follow on twitter who is probably the smartest most statistically minded person I follow stated that snow helps offenses. So I certainly could be wrong. I dont really have the evidence to argue one way or another which is why my original post phrased my point as a question. I really have no idea what the effects of snow are on football games statistically speaking - but Im hesitant to assume it hurts. If I had to guess I would say severe wind is the real factor but again Im just spitballin here.

It certainly helps running attacks. Again, QB's can't grip the ball properly and I've seen elite passing attacks turn into a disaster. Look up San Diego in the Freezer Bowl... Favorites to win the SB that year and ran into a polar vortex in Cincy. Air Coryell was one of the most prolific passing offense's off all-time, but couldn't get in the end zone that day.

Now, I would most certainly be interested in hearing stats to the contrary.

 

[averagejoe]

Now, I would most certainly be interested in hearing stats to the contrary.

Did the search again on ProFootball Reference and asked to show yardage.
Of the 96 teams, they averaged 120.3 rushing yards compared to 181.4 passing yards.
(Again, this was for all teams from 1940-2016 when the temp is 9 degrees or lower.)

Bumping it up to our modern era, since 2000 only 10 games have been played 9 degrees or lower.
Of those 20 teams involved:
They averaged 112.7 rush yards compared to 209.3 passing yards.