Way too early realignment predictions

[ForkEmBucky]

So there isn't really much left to do here. I'm thinking Boise State, BYU, Louisville, and....USF to the Big 12. Rutgers and UConn beg the B1G until the B1G finally caves in and invites them. Cincinnati falls out and rejoins Conference USA. CUSA picks up as many wayfarers as they can and re-establishes itself as a basketball conference. The bowls successfully protect their investment.

 

[ForkEmBucky]

Question is, B1G crew....

If we add Rutgers and UConn, do we just go with the East/West split?

Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Illinois, Purdue

Michigan State, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, UConn

OR... Not. Because Michigan and Ohio State will claim that they shouldn't have to go through each other for the CCG?

 

[SoonerDO]

I think Rutgers would come to the Big 12 over the Big 10 IMO

 

[Forty_Sixand2]

UCONN is a dead and destitute program with Jim Calhoun gone. The entire athletic program will die a slow death now and they are no longer a target of any conference. Sorry Storrs. You don matter anymore.

 

[Volbound1700]

Big12 will get Louisville and Cincinnati (or BYU). I don't see them getting anyone else. B1G is solid at 12 teams, same with Pac12.

SEC will eventually go after and likely get NC State and Va Tech. Notre Dame will become full member of ACC and they will pick up some more Big Easy teams or perhaps even grab West Virginia (which would be smart for the ACC).

 

[ForkEmBucky]

What is the point of grabbing NC State and Va Tech?

 

[KansasSooner]

What is the point of grabbing NC State and Va Tech?

Because UNC and Duke would kill them in basketball...

 

[ForkEmBucky]

Cincinnati isn't in that great of shape either. Their attendance has never been much to write home about. Their budget is in shambles. The Big 12 is better off grabbing Boise State, but my opinion probably doesn't matter.

 

[KansasSooner]

Cincinnati isn't in that great of shape either. Their attendance has never been much to write home about. Their budget is in shambles. The Big 12 is better off grabbing Boise State, but my opinion probably doesn't matter.

This is true, but SW Ohio and the surrounding area are better exposure for the Big 12 schools than Boise, ID. An infusion of money from the Big 12 would help UC and attendance would go up when major name schools travel to Cincy, more than Boise I would venture to guess. Plus the rivalry between WVU and Cincy is almost a given.

 

[ForkEmBucky]

I'm just saying, if you look at who's left...it's kind of obvious that there are no great grabs left outside of Notre Dame football.

Cincinnati.... Budget dying, low attendance, BCS performance peaked years ago,

Louisville.... Stable budget, average attendance doing fairly well

Boise State.... Stadium expanding and likely to boost average attendance to over 50,000, school improving, budget improving, sports on a whole improving.

Hawaii... Come on now. Nobody wants that expense. It's unfortunate for them, but true.

Rutgers... Average attendance, unimpressive for a flagship university of a fairly populated state; campus situated near NYC. But still, they're fairly stable, and you never know, they COULD one day generate buzz in their region.

USF... Hey, at least they're in Florida, so you might get some of your other programs some TV exposure there.

UConn... Apparently in shambles, but there are probably more UConn fans in NYC than most other universities still in the Big East.

BYU... Average attendance over 60,000, small but relevant national presence, large endowment.

Temple... Come on man.

Fresno State... Apparently getting hit with penalties, fading, mediocre average attendance compared to stadium size. They do generate some local fanaticism now and then, but it's rare.

San Diego State... Poor average attendance. Out competed by the pro-team for local interest. Never going to step out of USC's shadow, and probably not UCLA either.

Nevada... While I love their mascot, they get like an average of 15,000 fans at best.

UNLV.... Shitty attendance, poor performance, no major league endowments.

Service academies? Nah.

Am I really missing anyone important?

I guess if I were the Big 12, I would look at it this way.

Boise State gets me a growing program that will hold it's own with ticket sales, and happens to generate a lot of interest amongst casual CFB fans. Their budget should grow, rather than decline like so many others.

BYU gets me that small but relevant national following, a budget and audience that will hold it's own, and at least one game that is a short flight for Boise and vice versa.

Louisville has had a growing presence in their region, has a decent budget, gives WVU at least one short trip per year.

USF.....some TV sets in Florida. One day, The U could crumble and disband, making USF the new destination for some of that talent.

So if you really want to make a move to get your CCG and maybe kill a couple travel dollars, hook up with some schools with potential, get a few more TV sets... I'd go BYU, Boise, Louisville, Southern Florida. Cincinnati is a pitfall.

 

[ForkEmBucky]

This is true, but SW Ohio and the surrounding area are better exposure for the Big 12 schools than Boise, ID. An infusion of money from the Big 12 would help UC and attendance would go up when major name schools travel to Cincy, more than Boise I would venture to guess. Plus the rivalry between WVU and Cincy is almost a given.

Maybe.

 

[KansasSooner]

Maybe.

There is no maybe to it. Hell, look how many KState fans went to Morgantown. And that's just KState, Texas and OU would draw a lot of fans...if you're a CFB in the Cincy area and you have a chance to watch Texas or Oklahoma play you'd go. Plus if the Big 12 takes Louisville then Cincy is a no brainer for the other team. Boise State is just too small in the over all picture. At least Louisville and Cincy have basketball teams that could compete in the Big 12.

Honestly I can't see where the Big 12 would ever take Boise St. Too many other schools that are better fits it they want them.

 

[MarkOU]

Louisville & Rutgers to the big Xii next.

 

[BigAppleBadger]

UConn only has basketball fans. There is no such thing as a UConn football fan.

College football is not that big in NYC period. People that are from here don't follow it at all (they might tune in for a huge game like Bama-LSU last year but that's it). What NYC does have is a huge number of transplants, and 90% of the people you see packing bars to watch games on Saturdays are watching their alma mater or teams in their conference. There are more fans of Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Texas, Florida, etc in NYC than any current Big East school.

Trust me, I've lived in Manhattan for 8 years. I've got friends from college that are Wisco fans, friends that are MSU fans, PSU fans, Texas fans, Vandy fans (the gf went there). I've never met a Rutgers fan either (except for one secretary from Jersey in our office who picks her March Madness bracket based on which mascots she likes).

Adding either of those teams is pointless.

 

[tabascojet]

Louisville & va tech to the big Xii next.

fify

 

[ForkEmBucky]

There is no maybe to it. Hell, look how many KState fans went to Morgantown. And that's just KState, Texas and OU would draw a lot of fans...if you're a CFB in the Cincy area and you have a chance to watch Texas or Oklahoma play you'd go. Plus if the Big 12 takes Louisville then Cincy is a no brainer for the other team. Boise State is just too small in the over all picture. At least Louisville and Cincy have basketball teams that could compete in the Big 12.

Honestly I can't see where the Big 12 would ever take Boise St. Too many other schools that are better fits it they want them.

Fair enough. I can see what you're saying, but doesn't WVU usually get pretty close to selling out regardless? I guess if Cincinnati can start selling out or coming close to it 9 out of 10 times, they could be saved.

UConn only has basketball fans. There is no such thing as a UConn football fan.

College football is not that big in NYC period. People that are from here don't follow it at all (they might tune in for a huge game like Bama-LSU last year but that's it). What NYC does have is a huge number of transplants, and 90% of the people you see packing bars to watch games on Saturdays are watching their alma mater or teams in their conference. There are more fans of Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Texas, Florida, etc in NYC than any current Big East school.

Trust me, I've lived in Manhattan for 8 years. I've got friends from college that are Wisco fans, friends that are MSU fans, PSU fans, Texas fans, Vandy fans (the gf went there). I've never met a Rutgers fan either (except for one secretary from Jersey in our office who picks her March Madness bracket based on which mascots she likes).

Adding either of those teams is pointless.

I've heard that before, and maybe the BTN doesn't really need an excuse to move into NYC if they're already getting subscribers. The conference really has no options to expand its footprint at this point, unless they think they can poach some of the ACC's gains. Maybe it doesn't matter now, maybe we're all set at 12.

 

[BigAppleBadger]

I've got Verizon service and I get BTN as part of the basic cable package. I think RCN carries it as part of a $5/month sports add-on package (along with the Golf Channel, Outdoor Network, Versus and a few others).

The only major cable provider that I think still doesn't carry it in NYC is Time Warner, but that's because they fucking blow. They don't even carry NFL Network or ESPNU.

 

[BigAppleBadger]

If the B1G wanted to go east they'd have been better off taking Pitt and Syracuse (for basketball) before the ACC did. But Pitt doesn't add markets and Syracuse doesn't add much for football (though they're not that different from Rutgers or UConn). But at least they have real, honest to goodness fans in another sport. Otherwise the B1G needs to try to go back to B12 country, or maybe get Notre Dame to reverse course.

Honestly though, unless the world goes to 4 conferences, there's no reason for the B1G to expand because there aren't any real marquee programs on the table.

IMO, these are the programs that would be worth adding around the country:

Texas
Oklahoma
Kansas (basketball)
Alabama
Florida
LSU
Georgia
Kentucky (basketball)
Tennessee (if they ever get their shit back together)
Florida State
West Virginia
Virginia Tech
Pitt
North Carolina (basketball)
Syracuse (basketball)
USC
Oregon
Stanford
UCLA (basketball)

That's it. Nobody else is exciting.

Now if you take out the schools that are academically substandard (Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma, West Virginia) or geographically ridiculous (all the Pac-12 schools, the Florida schools, Georgia and Texas), you're left with the following:

Pittsburgh
Syracuse (basketball school)
Kansas (basketball school)
Kentucky (basketball school)
Tennessee
North Carolina (basketball school)
Virginia Tech

There's very little chance any school leaves the SEC, so you're basically left with B12/ACC basketball schools, Pitt and Virginia Tech as options.

No one really screams must-get, unless you did a big move all at once, like adding Texas, Kansas and Oklahoma (and maybe getting Mizzou to run screaming from the SEC). You can take one sub-par school in Oklahoma (with a crapload of football tradition) to get three other pretty decent schools including Texas (which is no longer a geographic oddity if you also get Kansas and Oklahoma).

Or if you could get Kentucky, Virginia Tech, West Virginia and Mizzou. If any programs leave the SEC it would be Kentucky or Mizzou. Those aren't "deep South" states and would be geographically contiguous.

 

[ForkEmBucky]

Do you think the Big 12 is still vulnerable to something like that? I guess I can see Texas thinking, "Well....we would instantly become part of the biggest TV audience." But becoming part of a 16 team conference could prove problematic. Guess we'll have to see how the SEC and ACC fair.

And actually, I kind of thought that the problems with the B1G grabbing Texas and Oklahoma were...

1. Nebraska
2. TV rights
3. TT and Baylor part of package deal.
4. Okie State part of package deal.
5. Being first to fire Super Conference shot heard round the world and wrecking tradition.

 

[tabascojet]

id like to return mizzou for some new footballs and a case of icy hot