Updated Husker Bowl Chances As A 5 Win Team

[Exorbitant]

The bright side of playing here, the hotshot California recruits Nebraska is going after.

Can TommyGun Armstrong live up to his post Iowa tweet, or does he claim technicality since it is still 2015 and his tweet clearly states 2016?

Hope and pray that Langsdorf actually uses Armstrong as a running QB with the occasional throw. Or will Langsdorf want to highlight his awesome play calling and ask Tommy to throw 50 times to impress Keyshawn Jr that Nebraska is a passing school.

Adam Rittenburg ESPN

Foster Farms Bowl: UCLA vs. Nebraska
(Dec. 26, 9:15 p.m., ESPN)
This game is a major mismatch for the second consecutive year, as Josh Rosen and the Bruins will dissect Nebraska's defense and send the Huskers to 5-8 in Mike Riley's first season. UCLA 45, Nebraska 24

Been a long time since Nebraska has had an eight loss season, 1957. Callahan would have achieved it if he could have gotten his 5-7 team in a bowl game though.

Did any of you read the fact that the coaches changed the names of plays to imply that they are runs instead of passes, specifically, the play that Armstrong tried to throw to Ozigbo against Illinois? It is now called a Quarterback Sweep. I forget what the play was originally called.

Since a lot of recruits are easily duped, I assume we'll see a 50 pass ?performance? from TA and a brutal loss to UCLA. You would think by limiting the amount of passes TA up for grabs throws, and winning the game would impress a recruit, even a receiver more than losing the damn game.

 

[Exorbitant]

The bright side of playing here, the hotshot California recruits Nebraska is going after.

Can TommyGun Armstrong live up to his post Iowa tweet, or does he claim technicality since it is still 2015 and his tweet clearly states 2016?

Hope and pray that Langsdorf actually uses Armstrong as a running QB with the occasional throw. Or will Langsdorf want to highlight his awesome play calling and ask Tommy to throw 50 times to impress Keyshawn Jr that Nebraska is a passing school.

Adam Rittenburg ESPN

Foster Farms Bowl: UCLA vs. Nebraska
(Dec. 26, 9:15 p.m., ESPN)
This game is a major mismatch for the second consecutive year, as Josh Rosen and the Bruins will dissect Nebraska's defense and send the Huskers to 5-8 in Mike Riley's first season. UCLA 45, Nebraska 24

Been a long time since Nebraska has had an eight loss season, 1957. Callahan would have achieved it if he could have gotten his 5-7 team in a bowl game though.

Did any of you read the fact that the coaches changed the names of plays to imply that they are runs instead of passes, specifically, the play that Armstrong tried to throw to Ozigbo against Illinois? It is now called a Quarterback Sweep. I forget what the play was originally called.

Every Nebraska fan can hope and pray 24 hours a day until game time on December 26th that Riley does this, but it won't do any good because we all should know what the offensive gameplan will be, sad but true.

I didn't pray, but I hoped like heck that Riley would smarten up a bit before the Iowa game, but to no avail.

 

[tometom]

I'm just really confused on how we ended up against an 8-4 team. it would seem to me a 5-7 team that they are letting in on a technicality would get a 6-6 or at best 7-5 team.

i think its a decent matchup and really, just as i felt all year it's a winnable game. seeing as we have lost by a combined 31 points all year, I think Riley and Co can keep it close. Based on Stats UCLA likes to air it out so hopefully the improvement we've seen from our d-line and pass D in the last 2 games was real and we can get a pass rush and keep that in check.

as everyone has said, the offense will really be on DL to limit TA's mistakes. hopefully TA does stick to his tweet and puts in some work before the game. given the 20 days to prepare, i would they come up with some better ways to use TA.

 

[HuskerinBig10]

I looked it up. Foster Farms sells Chicken and Turkey Products. Sort of competes with Oscar Mayer.

Nebraska is playing in the Chicken Bowl or the Fowl Bowl.

I like the Fowl Bowl better. The dummies won't know how to pronounce it. Will they say Fowel Bowel? Foul Ball?

Wish me luck, I am getting on a plane to talk to the police, the banks, and the hospitals about my Dad. Just so you all know, I had to file a Missing Person's Report on him on Friday. I tried Thursday but I could never get through the phone waiting line.

A new experience for me, I have never done a Missing Person's Report or a Missing Person's Project. I get to learn new Crisis Management Skills!!!

 

[tometom]

sorry to hear that HuskerinBig10. good luck.

 

[Brasky]

I'm gonna look myself, but I'm issuing a challenge to all of you to find delusional UCLA fans on their popular message boards...

If there actually are any real UCLA fans out there... They're probably delusional.

Find 'em and post 'em.

 

[Brasky]

This from "NapaBroBruin" from 'Bruin Report Online' otherwise known as "BRO".. Wow, sweet name "bro"... Let's see what he has to say

"Playing 5-7 team gives UCLA nothing to play for !
8:36 AM

Worst case for UCLA team to play ! Playing team that knows it shouldn't be there and is HUGE underdog ! Bruins never play these games well, nothing to get up for !"

 

[Exorbitant]

Good luck HB10 in finding your Dad.

 

[Exorbitant]

I'm just really confused on how we ended up against an 8-4 team. it would seem to me a 5-7 team that they are letting in on a technicality would get a 6-6 or at best 7-5 team.

i think its a decent matchup and really, just as i felt all year it's a winnable game. seeing as we have lost by a combined 31 points all year, I think Riley and Co can keep it close. Based on Stats UCLA likes to air it out so hopefully the improvement we've seen from our d-line and pass D in the last 2 games was real and we can get a pass rush and keep that in check.

as everyone has said, the offense will really be on DL to limit TA's mistakes. hopefully TA does stick to his tweet and puts in some work before the game. given the 20 days to prepare, i would they come up with some better ways to use TA.

Not letting him pass more than 20 times would help immensely. Limit him to play action passes would also help immensely. You would think after 12 games, 7 of them being debacles, that Riley and DL would have learned something that the whole nation already knows. Damn it, this is a highly winnable game.

 

[oaknightshockey1]

Game after game they've abandoned the run as opposed to being patient and wearing down the opponents front 7. They'll take an ugly loss over a boring win.

I wanted to go back and take a look at this, as well as test out some new data extraction stuff I've learned recently at work, so I pulled the YPC averages for all 128 teams by quarter, as well as % of 10+ and 20+ yd runs. Not trying to debate it, I just thought you might find this interesting (and I wanted to show off being able to pull stats from 128 teams relatively easily )



Quarter Average 10+ 20+
1 4.430 13.17% 3.75%
2 4.698 14.04% 3.73%
3 4.764 14.44% 4.31%
4 4.267 13.30% 3.90%

 

[Jack_John_Mark]

@HuskerinBig10, hope you just find your pa drunk in Vegas or something.

Best of luck to you.

 

[Red_Alert]

I wanted to go back and take a look at this, as well as test out some new data extraction stuff I've learned recently at work, so I pulled the YPC averages for all 128 teams by quarter, as well as % of 10+ and 20+ yd runs. Not trying to debate it, I just thought you might find this interesting (and I wanted to show off being able to pull stats from 128 teams relatively easily )

View attachment 62854

Quarter Average 10+ 20+
1 4.430 13.17% 3.75%
2 4.698 14.04% 3.73%
3 4.764 14.44% 4.31%
4 4.267 13.30% 3.90%

That's cool and all. I like stats and trends.

Think about it though. Those are 10 and 20 yd runs. Not every run needs to be a 1st down and that is the mindset of this staff. It's why they pass.
They want a 1st down every play.

As I showed before 3.4 +3.4+3.4 = 10.2 and a first down.

Also with your graph, think about it.

A trailing team in the 4th Q is likely to be passing. The leading team in the 4th is likely to be grinding clock. You also have to take into consideration the Victory Formation in the final 2 minutes. Two or three plays of taking a knee.

10+ and 20+ yd runs are anything but the norm. Even for the 95 Huskers.

.

 

[oaknightshockey1]

Oh I know. The middle blue line is yards per carry (the data labels for that are on the left). I just added those other two because the stats were there and I thought it was interesting.

 

[tometom]

alright Oak, you say you can pull stats easily. Here's one. I'd like to see the 1st down completion rate and also the % of 1st down passes vs runs for all teams and then Nebraska stand alone. (Maybe also break it down by teams with winning records vs those with losing, just to see if that's one of those things that indicates a good team or maybe by conference or if you could delineate spread vs pro style teams since spread teams might pass more than pro style. you probably have to add some sort of breakdown as a total for all teams won't make as much sense. maybe pick teams that you'd want to model after, say Bama and whoever else).

i threw out the argument previously, our main problem was TA's completion rate on 1st down passes. I'm not saying that was all of it so don't go there. But when the other team is expecting a run and stacking the box, i have no problem with a passing play and trying to catch them off guard, our problem in it was that TA didn't have a high enough % of completions, thus forcing more 2nd and 3rd and longs.

also nice work on the graph and stats. i work with excel every day and know it can be a tricky beast.

 

[oaknightshockey1]

alright Oak, you say you can pull stats easily. Here's one. I'd like to see the 1st down completion rate and also the % of 1st down passes vs runs for all teams and then Nebraska stand alone. (Maybe also break it down by teams with winning records vs those with losing, just to see if that's one of those things that indicates a good team or maybe by conference or if you could delineate spread vs pro style teams since spread teams might pass more than pro style. you probably have to add some sort of breakdown as a total for all teams won't make as much sense. maybe pick teams that you'd want to model after, say Bama and whoever else).

i threw out the argument previously, our main problem was TA's completion rate on 1st down passes. I'm not saying that was all of it so don't go there. But when the other team is expecting a run and stacking the box, i have no problem with a passing play and trying to catch them off guard, our problem in it was that TA didn't have a high enough % of completions, thus forcing more 2nd and 3rd and longs.

also nice work on the graph and stats. i work with excel every day and know it can be a tricky beast.

Great idea. Interestingly enough, NU threw 158 times on first down this season, which is only 48th nationally. Granted, that is just a raw number and says nothing about run-pass ratios on first downs. That can be the next stat. The results of this were probably what you expected:

National:
Completion %- 61.5%
YPA- 7.90
Ints/Att- 2.4%
Rating- 139.97

Nebraska:
Completion %- 53.2%
YPA- 7.64
Ints/Att- 5.1%
Rating- 126.07

 

[oaknightshockey1]

National % of passing attempts on first down: 38.1%
Nebraska: 39.6%

 

[oaknightshockey1]

For Nebraska: 241 rushing attempts on first down compared to 158 passing attempts

 

[oaknightshockey1]

Glad I checked those numbers because I was off at first. Fixed it now.

 

[tometom]

that completion rate on 1st down is atrocious. I'd also wager if you looked at the better teams, say >6 wins that % is even higher. if MR/DL can fix that, we'd be in a ton better shape. also thanks for the INT stat, that was interesting as well, twice as often TA threw INTs on 1st down than the national average. that shouldn't be happening.

 

[oaknightshockey1]

that completion rate on 1st down is atrocious. I'd also wager if you looked at the better teams, say >6 wins that % is even higher. if MR/DL can fix that, we'd be in a ton better shape. also thanks for the INT stat, that was interesting as well, twice as often TA threw INTs on 1st down than the national average. that shouldn't be happening.

When I'm not at work I will see what more I can pull from these type of stats. I should be able to pull out teams based on record but it will be a little more time consuming. I might start a new thread for some fun statistics. This is very entertaining for me.