Updated Bracketology 2.23.16

[ericd7633]

South Region(Louisville, KY)

1. KANSAS(BIG 12)
16. BUCKNELL(PL)/HAMPTON(MEAC)
- Wells Fargo Arena(Des Moines, IA)
8. Colorado
9. WICHITA STATE(MVC)

5. Purdue
12. VCU(A-10)
- Pepsi Center(Denver, CO)
4. Duke
13. STONY BROOK(AM. EAST)

6. Baylor
11. Saint Bonaventure/Tulsa
- Wells Fargo Arena(Des Moines, IA)
3. Iowa
14. UNC-WILMINGTON(CAA)

7. USC
10. SAINT MARY'S(WCC)
- Barclays Center(Brooklyn, NY)
2. UNC(ACC)
15. WINTHROP(BIG SOUTH)

East Regional(Philadelphia, PA)

1. VILLANOVA(BIG EAST)
16. TEXAS SO(SWAC)/WAGNER(NEC)
- Barclays Center(Brooklyn, NY)
8. Florida
9. Pittsburgh

5. Texas A&M
12. TEMPLE(AAC)
- SVM Arena(Spokane, OR)
4. West Virginia
13. YALE(IVY)

6. Texas
11. MONMOUTH(MAAC)
- Scottrade Center(St. Louis, MO)
3. Michigan State
14. UAB(CONF. USA)

7. California
10. Alabama
- PNC ARENA(Raleigh, NC)
2. Miami
15. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN(SOUTHLAND)

Midwest Regional(Chicago, IL)

1. Oklahoma
16. NORTH FLORIDA(A-SUN)
- Chesapeake Energy Arena(Oklahoma City, OK)
8. Providence
9. Connecticut

5. Dayton
12. Michigan/Cincinnati
- Chesapeake Energy Arena(Oklahoma City, OK)
4. KENTUCKY(SEC)
13. CHATTANOOGA(SOUTHERN)

6. INDIANA(BIG)
11. VALPARAISO(HORIZON)
- Pepsi Center(Denver, CO)
3. Utah
14. IPFW(SUMMIT)

7. South Carolina
10. Oregon State
- PNC ARENA(Raleigh, NC)
2. UVA
15. BELMONT(OVC)

West Regional(Anaheim, CA)

1. Xavier
16. MONTANA(BIG SKY)
- Scottrade Center(St. Louis, MO)
8. Saint Joseph's
9. Wisconsin

5. Arizona
12. AKRON(MAC)
- Dunkin Donuts Arena(Providence, RI)
4. Iowa State
13. ARKANSAS LITTLE-ROCK(SUN BELT)

6. Notre Dame
11. SAN DIEGO STATE(MTN. WEST)
- Dunkin Donuts Arena(Providence, RI)
3. Maryland
14. HAWAII(BIG WEST)

7. Texas Tech
10. Syracuse
- SVM Arena(Spokane, OR)
2. OREGON(PAC 12)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE(WAC)

Last 4 BYES: Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Oregon State, Alabama,
Last 4 IN: Saint Bonaventure, Michigan, Cincinnati, Tulsa
First 4 OUT: Seton Hall, George Washington, Butler, Washington
Next 4 OUT: Gonzaga, Vanderbilt, UCLA, Florida State

Top 10 on “S” Curve: Kansas, Villanova, Oklahoma, Xavier, Oregon, UVA, Miami, UNC, Iowa, Michigan State

Bids by Conference: AAC(4), A-10(4), ACC(7), Big 12(7), Big East(3), B1G(7), Pac 12(7), SEC(5),

 

[huskers1217]

Do you think they would put teams in at 12 & 13 just knowing they will be a Cinderella (I.e VCU)

 

[ericd7633]

Do you think they would put teams in at 12 & 13 just knowing they will be a Cinderella (I.e VCU)

No. Most 12 and 13's are auto bids anyway, so they are generally the best mid major teams. VCU probably wouldn't be in this bracket if not for them being the "auto" bid(current conference leader)

 

[mr.hockey4242]

I think you are selling Seton Hall short. They are pretty solidly in. A Kevin Willard annual collapse is gonna have to happen.

 

[jontaejones]

I don't think the Big East can have two #1 seeds this year. The other conferences have higher RPIs and will overtake the Big East teams during conference tourneys.

I do think X deserves to be on the #1 line if they beat Nova tmrw.

 

[ericd7633]

I think you are selling Seton Hall short. They are pretty solidly in. A Kevin Willard annual collapse is gonna have to happen.

They are only 2-4 against the top 50. And have a Non Conf. SOS of 247. I will admit the Last 4 IN and Seton Hall were very hard to distinguish from. IMO they really lack the two most important thing in the committees eyes, which are quality wins and SOS/Non Conf SOS. The Big East as a whole(outside Nova/Xaiver/GTown) is really killing themselves with their OOC schedules.

 

[ericd7633]

I don't think the Big East can have two #1 seeds this year. The other conferences have higher RPIs and will overtake the Big East teams during conference tourneys.

I do think X deserves to be on the #1 line if they beat Nova tmrw.

I would agree in the long run. I'd say it's a pretty safe bet that Xavier/Nova will get a 1 seed, in order for them to get two 1 seeds a lot of upheaval would have to happen. But that's exactly what has happened so far this year, that's why at the moment I have X on the 1 line.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

They are only 2-4 against the top 50. And have a Non Conf. SOS of 247. I will admit the Last 4 IN and Seton Hall were very hard to distinguish from. IMO they really lack the two most important thing in the committees eyes, which are quality wins and SOS/Non Conf SOS. The Big East as a whole(outside Nova/Xaiver/GTown) is really killing themselves with their OOC schedules.

Yeah thats a good point. But 11-7 BE record is gonna end up being tough to ignore which is what they are basically projected out to. I think if they do that it would require a first round BET loss and other crazy shit around the league to happen to keep them out.

If they beat X or go 3-1 to close out the regular season I think they are locks and not even around the play in.

But its fucking tough. Joe Lunardi was always one of the bracket guys most down on them...Now hes got them in and not in the play in game. Where as Jerry Palm(had them in safe) now has them as a play in.

Kinda hard to even predict lol.

 

[ericd7633]

Yeah thats a good point. But 11-7 BE record is gonna end up being tough to ignore which is what they are basically projected out to. I think if they do that it would require a first round BET loss and other crazy shit around the league to happen to keep them out.

If they beat X or go 3-1 to close out the regular season I think they are locks and not even around the play in.

But its fucking tough. Joe Lunardi was always one of the bracket guys most down on them...Now hes got them in and not in the play in game. Where as Jerry Palm(had them in safe) now has them as a play in.

Kinda hard to even predict lol.

Finishing 3-1 will be a great boost to their resume, even if that 3-1 happened to be a loss to DePaul. The Providence/Seton Hall game is huge. Providence could be flirting with slipping out.

Seton Hall is tough to gauge for sure.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Finishing 3-1 will be a great boost to their resume, even if that 3-1 happened to be a loss to DePaul. The Providence/Seton Hall game is huge. Providence could be flirting with slipping out.

Seton Hall is tough to gauge for sure.

They more require the eye test and seeing their record.

They are very clearly the 3rd best BE team. And from a matchup standpoint they are a nightmare for most of 4-8 in the league. This is a massive week for them

 

[ericd7633]

They more require the eye test and seeing their record.

They are very clearly the 3rd best BE team. And from a matchup standpoint they are a nightmare for most of 4-8 in the league. This is a massive week for them

Providence or Seton Hall?

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Providence or Seton Hall?

Hall.

Providence is gonna be St John's level bad next year potentially if Bentil doesn't return.

Biggest 2 man show I've ever seen from a team. No depth, no size, and no guards(outside Dunn).

 

[ericd7633]

Hall.

Providence is gonna be St John's level bad next year potentially if Bentil doesn't return.

Biggest 2 man show I've ever seen from a team. No depth, no size, and no guards(outside Dunn).

Yeah I was gonna say Providence's RPI is probably a little better than what they actually are as a team.

Big East is a weird league this year. Really not much separation in 3rd place(Hall) and 8th place(Marquette)

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Yeah I was gonna say Providence's RPI is probably a little better than what they actually are as a team.

Big East is a weird league this year. Really not much separation in 3rd place(Hall) and 8th place(Marquette)

Yup. But like I said I'd go 4th-8th. As I Marquette I'd rather play play Nova and X than SHU from a match up point. And considering our little bit of size/length bugs Butler and Providence I'd say same goes for them.

Pretty disappointing the whole league decided to schedule god awful cupcakes in the same year. I think it's awful criteria, but it's on the ADs for ultimately doing it.

 

[CatsTopPac]

Are these brackets what you think will be called on Selection Sunday, or are these what you see if Selection Sunday was today?

 

[ericd7633]

Are these brackets what you think will be called on Selection Sunday, or are these what you see if Selection Sunday was today?

Today.

 

[CatsTopPac]

Today.

Right on. I know this is probably a homer move, but I realistically think AZ is a #3 seed, and a sweep this weekend would be an argument for me to have them as a #2 seed. Sagarin, Pomroy, BPI, both polls all have AZ from 8-13. Only their RPI has them in the mid 20s (because of SOS). They are playing their best basketball of the season right now, and them as a #5 seed is pretty low. Oregon beat OSU last week, and before that they got swept by the bay schools, and you have them a #2 seed. I feel like your biggest measure is RPI. Is that a strong basis for your brackets?

 

[jontaejones]

Providence or Seton Hall?

I would pick Providence. The supporting cast isn't as useless in my mind and they have beaten Villanova and Arizona, and almost MSU, none of those games at home.

 

[ericd7633]

Right on. I know this is probably a homer move, but I realistically think AZ is a #3 seed, and a sweep this weekend would be an argument for me to have them as a #2 seed. Sagarin, Pomroy, BPI, both polls all have AZ from 8-13. Only their RPI has them in the mid 20s (because of SOS). They are playing their best basketball of the season right now, and them as a #5 seed is pretty low. Oregon beat OSU last week, and before that they got swept by the bay schools, and you have them a #2 seed. I feel like your biggest measure is RPI. Is that a strong basis for your brackets?

I try and mirror what I think the committee will do and take my own personal biases out of the equation, because of that RPI, Non Conf. SOS/SOS and Top 25/Top 50 wins are weighted more heavily.

Arizona's resume:
W/L: 22-5
RPI: 27
SOS 128
Non Conf. SOS: 268
Vs. Top 25: 0-2
Vs. Top 50: 2-4

The committee tends to penalize teams for weak OOC scheduling, which AZ has on their resume this year. Also they only have two wins against my field, which is crazy given the Pac 12's depth this year.

I said earlier this year, I think AZ is going to be under seeded based on the type of team I think they are, because they just don't have the resume that correlates to a top 3 seed, at least at the moment.

 

[ericd7633]

Right on. I know this is probably a homer move, but I realistically think AZ is a #3 seed, and a sweep this weekend would be an argument for me to have them as a #2 seed. Sagarin, Pomroy, BPI, both polls all have AZ from 8-13. Only their RPI has them in the mid 20s (because of SOS). They are playing their best basketball of the season right now, and them as a #5 seed is pretty low. Oregon beat OSU last week, and before that they got swept by the bay schools, and you have them a #2 seed. I feel like your biggest measure is RPI. Is that a strong basis for your brackets?

Main reason for Oregon's seed:

RPI: 4
SOS: 1
Non Conf. SOS: 14
Vs. Top 25: 4-1
Vs. Top 50: 9-3