Updated Bracketology 1.21.19

[ericd7633]

It's been three weeks since my last update. I figured now would be a good time for another update. Just in case anybody forgot this is how the committee is breaking down quality wins:

Quadrant 1: Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75; Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-100; Neutral 101-200; Away 136-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-plus; Neutral 201-plus; Away 241-plus

Top 10 "Seed" Curve: Duke, Virginia, Tennessee, Michigan State, Gonzaga, Michigan, Kansas, Maryland, Marquette, Kentucky.
Last 4 BYES: Ohio State, Seton Hall, Central Florida, Baylor
Last 4 IN: Butler, Lipscomb, Florida, San Francisco
First 4 OUT: Arizona State, Alabama, Utah State, Minnesota
Next 4 OUT: Arizona, Temple, VCU, Furman

East Regional(Washington DC)

1. Duke
16. NORFOLK STATE(MEAC)/SAM HOUSTON STATE(SOUTHLAND)
- Colonial Life Arena(Columbia, SC)
8. Kansas State
9. St. John's

5. Iowa
12. HOFSTRA(CAA)
-SAP Center(San Jose, CA)
4. LSU
13. VERMONT(AM. EAST)

6. North Carolina State
11. Baylor
-BOK Center(Tulsa, OK)
3. Marquette
14. MARSHALL(C-USA)

7. Mississippi State
10. Texas
-XL Center(Hartford, CT)
2. Maryland
15. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE(SUMMIT)

South Regional(Louisville, KY)

1. VIRGINIA(ACC)
16. ROBERT MORRIS(NEC)/PRAIRIE VIEW A&M(SWAC)
-Colonial Life Arena(Columbia, SC)
8. Oklahoma
9. Indiana

5. Purdue
12. LIBERTY(A-SUN)
-XL Center(Hartford, CT)
4. BUFFALO(MAC)
13. ST LOUIS(A-10)

6. VILLANOVA(BIG EAST)
11. Lipscomb/Florida
-BOK Center(Tulsa, OK)
3. HOUSTON(AAC)
14. TEXAS STATE(SUN BELT)

7. Nebraska
10. WASHINGTON(PAC 12)
-Wells Fargo Arena(Des Moines, IA)
2. Kansas
15. UC SANTA BARBARA(BIG WEST)

Midwest Regional(Kansas City, MO)

1. TENNESSEE(SEC)
16. PRINCETON(IVY)
-Nationwide Arena(Columbus, OH)
8. TCU
9. Florida State

5. Wisconsin
12. MURRAY STATE(OVC)
-Jacksonville VMA(Jacksonville, FL)
4. North Carolina
13. RADFORD(BIG SOUTH)

6. NEVADA(MTN. WEST)
11. Central Florida
-Jacksonville VMA(Jacksonville, FL)
3. TEXAS TECH(BIG 12)
14. NORTHERN KENTUCKY(HORIZON)

7. Auburn
10. Seton Hall
-Wells Fargo Arena(Des Moines, IA)
2. Michigan
15. RIDER(MAAC)

West Regional(Anaheim, CA)

1. MICHIGAN STATE(BIG)
16. BUCKNELL(PATRIOT)
-Nationwide Arena(Columbus, OH)
8. Cincinnati
9. Syracuse

5. Ole Miss
12. WOFFORD(SO. CON)
-Vivint Smart Home Arena(SLC, UT)
4. Virginia Tech
13. GRAND CANYON(WAC)

6. Iowa State
11. Butler/San Francisco
-Jacksonville VMA(Jacksonville, FL)
3. Kentucky
14. LOYOLA CHICAGO(MVC)

7. Louisville
10. Ohio State
-Vivint Smart Home Arena(SLC, UT)
2. GONZAGA(WCC)
15. WEBER STATE(BIG SKY)

 

[Tortilla Launcher]

Virginia might ask to be a 2 this year.

 

[ericd7633]

Just some analysis:

At this point 1-3 on the seed list was pretty clear, the order not so much. Much of the same 4-6. After the top 6, there's a clear drop off between 6 and 7(Kansas). 7-13(Virginia Tech) is also pretty jumbled up. There's just a lot of fluidity among those 7 teams.

Procedural bumps:

Kentucky was shipped out West to avoid a possible Sweet 16 rematch with Kansas. And because they aren't allowed to be the 3 seed in Tennessee's region. The committee could very easily keep them in the South if this were a real bracket though.

Protected Seeds:

With the Western region being down this season(most notably the Pac 12 and Mtn. West). It's inevitable that there will be a bunch of 4's and 5's bumped to the West Coast. Buffalo was the highest 4 seed in this bracket, therefore, they are slotted in the XL Center. Of note: The UNC pod in this hypothetical will be playing in at the SAP Center in San Jose, they are slotted in the Jacksonville location up top, but that was a mistake.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

My one thing would be if Marquette does actually get a 3 seed.

They will be in Des Moines

 

[ericd7633]

Big Games this week:

Monday, January 21st:

#19 Maryland(16-3, 7-1) at #6 Michigan State(16-2, 7-0) - 6:30 | FS1
#9 Virginia Tech(15-2, 4-1) at #13 North Carolina(14-4, 4-1) - 7:00 | ESPN
Iowa State(14-4, 4-2) at #7 Kansas(15-3, 4-2) - 9:00 | ESPN

Tuesday, January 22nd:

#8 Texas Tech(15-3, 4-2) at Kansas State(14-4, 4-2) - 7:00 | ESPN2
#24 Mississippi State(14-3, 2-2) at #12 Kentucky(14-3, 4-1) - 7:00 | ESPN
#22 Villanova(14-4, 5-0) at Butler(12-7, 3-3) - 7:00 | FS1
#18 Ole Miss(14-3, 4-1) at Alabama(11-6, 2-3) - 9:00 | ESPNU

Wednesday, January 23rd:

Texas(11-7, 3-3) at TCU(13-4, 2-3) - 7:00 | ESPNU
Saint Louis(14-4, 5-0) at Duquesne(13-5, 4-1) - 8:00 | ESPN+

Thursday, January 24th:

#6 Michigan State(16-2, 7-0) at #23 Iowa(16-3, 5-3) - 7:00 | FS1

Friday, January 25th:

#2 Michigan(17-1, 6-1) at #25 Indiana(12-6, 3-4) - 6:30 | FS1

 

[ericd7633]

My one thing would be if Marquette does actually get a 3 seed.

They will be in Des Moines

That's the one thing that will be interesting to me. Kansas is technically closer to Des Moines than it is Tulsa, which is why that bumped Marquette away from the Des Moines pod.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

That's the one thing that will be interesting to me. Kansas is technically closer to Des Moines than it is Tulsa, which is why that bumped Marquette away from the Des Moines pod.

Ahh im really bad at knowing how all the locations work

So there’s no way for both teams to play there as those seeds?

 

[ericd7633]

Ahh im really bad at knowing how all the locations work

So there’s no way for both teams to play there as those seeds?

It's going to be really, really hard for them to get to Des Moines without one of Michigan/Michigan State/Kansas falling behind them in the pecking order. Or if the committee sends Tennessee to Jacksonville(which I highly doubt), which would then open up a spot for Michigan/Michigan State to be sent to Columbus. Which would allow Marquette to get the 2nd spot in Des Moines.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

It's going to be really, really hard for them to get to Des Moines without one of Michigan/Michigan State/Kansas falling behind them in the pecking order. Or if the committee sends Tennessee to Jacksonville(which I highly doubt), which would then open up a spot for Michigan/Michigan State to be sent to Columbus. Which would allow Marquette to get the 2nd spot in Des Moines.

Ahh so Des Moines would just be the two pods that feature 2 of those teams.

Yeah that will probably be tough then

Of course it wasn’t tough for 7 seeded South Carolina smh

 

[ericd7633]

Ahh so Des Moines would just be the two pods that feature 2 of those teams.

Yeah that will probably be tough then

Of course it wasn’t tough for 7 seeded South Carolina smh

Yeah. And there's a boatload of Midwest teams in contention. They may send Kansas to Tulsa though. There is only like a 30 minute difference between that and Des Moines.

And South Carolina was just fortunate they were in Duke's pod, and of course those games should have been played in North Carolina before the NCAA ruled to move them.

 

[rmilia1]

5 seed is probably where if have Iowa at right now as well. I think we've got 4 Q1 wins and 4 Q2 wins with no bad losses so definitely room to move up if they play well over the next few weeks ( 4 Q1 games in a row )

 

[ericd7633]

5 seed is probably where if have Iowa at right now as well. I think we've got 4 Q1 wins and 4 Q2 wins with no bad losses so definitely room to move up if they play well over the next few weeks ( 4 Q1 games in a row )

Iowa does have 8 combined Q1 & Q2 wins. Only 3 against the projected field though.

 

[rmilia1]

Iowa does have 8 combined Q1 & Q2 wins. Only 3 against the projected field though.

Seems right . Big 2 weeks coming up . Could move all the way up to a 2/3 seed if they do well or back down to a 8/9 if they don't

 

[ericd7633]

Seems right . Big 2 weeks coming up . Could move all the way up to a 2/3 seed if they do well or back down to a 8/9 if they don't

Getting 3 of their next 4 would probably move them up a seed line if not 2.

 

[douggie]

AP Top 25 1-21-19
1. Tennessee
2. Duke
3. Virginia
4. Gonzaga
5. Michigan
6. Michigan State
7. Nevada
8. Kentucky
9. Kansas
10. Virginia Tech
11. North Carolina
12. Marquette
13. Maryland
14. Texas Tech
14. Buffalo
16. Auburn
17. Houston
18. Villanova
19. Iowa
20. Ole Miss
21. NC State
22. Mississippi State
23. Louisville
24. Iowa State
25. LSU

 

[jontaejones]

Little harsh bumping Michigan from the 1 line for 1 loss on the road, but it's not crazy.

I agree that top 6 is a cut above right now, though I can see 1 other team joining them.

Right now, the NET give you points for pummelling inferior teams. Gonzaga is dropping like a rock in RPI but holding strong in NET.

 

[kelley2403]

Virginia might ask to be a 2 this year.

Made y'all forget Chaminade.

 

[ralphiewvu]

@ericd7633

Would you be interested in doing a CBI bracket? You know, for those of us whose teams refuse to play actual D1 basketball.

 

[ericd7633]

@ericd7633

Would you be interested in doing a CBI bracket? You know, for those of us whose teams refuse to play actual D1 basketball.

Gophers/Mountaineers title game in the CBI will be epic!

 

[ralphiewvu]

Gophers/Mountaineers title game in the CBI will be epic!

Haha you guys are in the tourney right now probably. You are like 3rd in one of the best conferences in the nation.