The Q
Hoop’s Villain, Reality’s Hero
Given the new CBA rules, the draft has become more about age (draft as young as possible) and risk (finding the next unicorn). Every team thinks they can find the next Giannis, Draymond, or Kawhi lurking later in the draft. In reality, these are outliers.
I don't know if the NBA is approaching MLB territory in a risk-based approach to drafting high school players versus college players. If that happens and more teams in the lottery take bigger risks on younger, athletic freaks, that might allow the older, potentially more established players fall to already successful teams. These players might not have the ceiling as the younger players, but you already have 3-4 years worth of data to analyze. On top of that, you have the complexity of evaluating foreign talent in different leagues and different styles of play.
Should be interesting to see how this develops over the next 5-10 years.
This article sums it up nicely
What predicts NBA success?
biggest facotrs are age, college performance and quality of school. But age is always a huge factor in nba success.