Top 10 QB...

[shopson67]

oh right, it was this whole thread where it was mentioned how little success top QB picks have had

You would rather pin your hopes on a later, unheralded prospect? Seems counter-intuitive. Recent success is violently swayed by Tom Brady's success, and you can hold out for that lightning strike again if you want I guess. Even Tom was beaten twice by a #1 overall (Eli) and again by a team that recently drafted a QB #2 overall (Wentz). Sure, he was injured and replaced by a later round QB for the actual SB, but it was Wentz that had that team at the top of the league for most if not all of his activity last season.

Let's not forget that Wentz was a highly doubted prospect by many (as was Goff) and both had their teams highly elevated in year two. Wentz jumped from a lower level of competition and Goff came from a spread offense, both what seemed like huge learning curves. Hell, if Goff hadn't been held back by the Fisher "brain trust" in his rookie year development, he could've been even better this past season.

The real question is what situation are these rookies being drafted into? Are these teams well set to take on and mold these QB prospects and elevate their play? What OC/QB coaches are going to be molding (or destroying) these kids?

 

[TKOSpikes]

You would rather pin your hopes on a later, unheralded prospect? Seems counter-intuitive. Recent success is violently swayed by Tom Brady's success, and you can hold out for that lightning strike again if you want I guess. Even Tom was beaten twice by a #1 overall (Eli) and again by a team that recently drafted a QB #2 overall (Wentz). Sure, he was injured and replaced by a later round QB for the actual SB, but it was Wentz that had that team at the top of the league for most if not all of his activity last season.

Let's not forget that Wentz was a highly doubted prospect by many (as was Goff) and both had their teams highly elevated in year two. Wentz jumped from a lower level of competition and Goff came from a spread offense, both what seemed like huge learning curves. Hell, if Goff hadn't been held back by the Fisher "brain trust" in his rookie year development, he could've been even better this past season.

The real question is what situation are these rookies being drafted into? Are these teams well set to take on and mold these QB prospects and elevate their play? What OC/QB coaches are going to be molding (or destroying) these kids?

Wentz beat higher level team(s) in college. Foles won the SB...Wentz as he #2 pick doesn't count there.

It's not just about Tom Brady. Not at all. Brees is a great example too. Wilson.

It's Winston and Mariota. It's Rivers. It's Jamarcus Russell. Manuel It's Stafford. It's Luck. It's Cousins vs Griffin. It's a hundred more. It means nothing without coaching and surrounding talent. Surrounding talent diminishes when you have to give all the dough to the "franchise" QB. And a continuous coaching carousel helps nobody. If we drafted Winston, would you think we would need to draft a QB this year?

Trading up to get the 3rd or 4th or 5th guy on your board just because it's a QB, is crazy talk. You wanna talk "franchise"? Ray Lewis, Brian Urlacher, Zack Thomas...say hello to Roquan Smith.

We haven't had a Darryl Talley since Darryl Talley. Fletcher was good, but not great.

 

[TKOSpikes]

And you can't knock Tyrod for having an offense in the top ten because of rushing, and at the same time praise Goff while excluding the same. Gurley is pretty good.

 

[shopson67]

Wentz beat higher level team(s) in college. Foles won the SB...Wentz as he #2 pick doesn't count there.

It's not just about Tom Brady. Not at all. Brees is a great example too. Wilson.

It's Winston and Mariota. It's Rivers. It's Jamarcus Russell. Manuel It's Stafford. It's Luck. It's Cousins vs Griffin. It's a hundred more. It means nothing without coaching and surrounding talent. Surrounding talent diminishes when you have to give all the dough to the "franchise" QB. And a continuous coaching carousel helps nobody. If we drafted Winston, would you think we would need to draft a QB this year?

Trading up to get the 3rd or 4th or 5th guy on your board just because it's a QB, is crazy talk. You wanna talk "franchise"? Ray Lewis, Brian Urlacher, Zack Thomas...say hello to Roquan Smith.

We haven't had a Darryl Talley since Darryl Talley. Fletcher was good, but not great.

I'll give you Brees. He was also the 2nd QB drafted in 2001 (just happened to last to first pick in the second round) and probably slipped due to size concerns. Wilson also fell largely due to size concerns, and the fact that Mayfield isn't falling because of similar issues is due to Wilson's and Brees' success.

Wentz got that Philly team to a strong enough record that they could survive Foles' poor play until he turned it around in the playoffs. If Foles was the QB all season, they may not even make the playoffs. By beating better teams in college is that a comparison to Allen? Wentz was a MUCH better prospect than Allen, I agree.

You have to remember that there is a big difference between teams that trade up for their QB and those that are there because they had the worst record in the league. Griffin was ruined by injury, but had his team in the playoffs year one. Luck, Stafford, Rivers, and Mariota have all led their teams to the playoffs, some multiple times. Winston missed out on the playoffs his rookie season via tie-breaker...to Stafford's Lions...and won ROY. None of those guys are failed picks. Winston would not have the Bills looking for a QB again already.

Now Russell and Manuel were horrible picks. I follow the draft pretty well and never had considered Manuel a top QB pick when the Bills drafted him. Ridiculously poor pick, a reach in a draft void of 1st round QB talent. Russell was your typical "tools" pick (Raiders were notorious for them, especially speed guys) over actual game tape. You didn't mention him, but Losman was also a terrible pick. Bills have made some poor decisions, among all of those regime change-overs. Hopefully they have a better judges of talent in place today.

Zach Thomas was a fifth round pick. All 3 of the LBs you mentioned were HOF talents, but only Lewis led his team to the promised land. I love Roguan Smith as a prospect and picked him for the Bills in many mock drafts. It's just that all signs point to the Bills using that first pick (and possibly more in trade) for their QB. Not saying it is the best move (that depends on how much and who), but the momentum is certainly there: dumped their starting QB for a pick. Dumped their LT to trade up already. Replaced their starting QB with a short-contract former backup (and 5th round pick) after all the big names were signed away.

 

[TKOSpikes]

I'll give you Brees. He was also the 2nd QB drafted in 2001 (just happened to last to first pick in the second round) and probably slipped due to size concerns. Wilson also fell largely due to size concerns, and the fact that Mayfield isn't falling because of similar issues is due to Wilson's and Brees' success.

Wentz got that Philly team to a strong enough record that they could survive Foles' poor play until he turned it around in the playoffs. If Foles was the QB all season, they may not even make the playoffs. By beating better teams in college is that a comparison to Allen? Wentz was a MUCH better prospect than Allen, I agree.

You have to remember that there is a big difference between teams that trade up for their QB and those that are there because they had the worst record in the league. Griffin was ruined by injury, but had his team in the playoffs year one. Luck, Stafford, Rivers, and Mariota have all led their teams to the playoffs, some multiple times. Winston missed out on the playoffs his rookie season via tie-breaker...to Stafford's Lions...and won ROY. None of those guys are failed picks. Winston would not have the Bills looking for a QB again already.

Now Russell and Manuel were horrible picks. I follow the draft pretty well and never had considered Manuel a top QB pick when the Bills drafted him. Ridiculously poor pick, a reach in a draft void of 1st round QB talent. Russell was your typical "tools" pick (Raiders were notorious for them, especially speed guys) over actual game tape. You didn't mention him, but Losman was also a terrible pick. Bills have made some poor decisions, among all of those regime change-overs. Hopefully they have a better judges of talent in place today.

Zach Thomas was a fifth round pick. All 3 of the LBs you mentioned were HOF talents, but only Lewis led his team to the promised land. I love Roguan Smith as a prospect and picked him for the Bills in many mock drafts. It's just that all signs point to the Bills using that first pick (and possibly more in trade) for their QB. Not saying it is the best move (that depends on how much and who), but the momentum is certainly there: dumped their starting QB for a pick. Dumped their LT to trade up already. Replaced their starting QB with a short-contract former backup (and 5th round pick) after all the big names were signed away.

I don't deny any of this (except the implication that Winston and Mariota are better than Tyrod).

My point is, there are lots of factors that go into a winning season. For every Eli champ there is a Dilfer champ. Drafting a top five QB means absolutely nothing. Rivers is a great QB who has won diddly squat.

Lead team to playoffs? You mean like Tyrod just did?

I get that the writing is on the wall, I'm just saying the print was already fine. Changing it to have "your guys", fine, I get it. I just think Tyrod and Sammy are miles better than McCarron/rookie and Benjamin. It's not close. Trade Sammy because of health concerns, I get it...but then go get Benjamin and his knee? Now you want me to cheer dumping Tyrod for Lamar? Sorry, those two things are two downgrades.

I like everything Derm and Beane have done, except Tyrod and Sammy.

 

[shopson67]

I don't deny any of this (except the implication that Winston and Mariota are better than Tyrod).

My point is, there are lots of factors that go into a winning season. For every Eli champ there is a Dilfer champ. Drafting a top five QB means absolutely nothing. Rivers is a great QB who has won diddly squat.

Lead team to playoffs? You mean like Tyrod just did?

I get that the writing is on the wall, I'm just saying the print was already fine. Changing it to have "your guys", fine, I get it. I just think Tyrod and Sammy are miles better than McCarron/rookie and Benjamin. It's not close. Trade Sammy because of health concerns, I get it...but then go get Benjamin and his knee? Now you want me to cheer dumping Tyrod for Lamar? Sorry, those two things are two downgrades.

I like everything Derm and Beane have done, except Tyrod and Sammy.

Do you really think Sammy would still be here? He jumped ship on the Rams for more money (and reportedly the offers weren't that far apart). Bills got a 2nd round pick out losing him, while the Rams had to use a 1st rounder to replace him. Bills are far ahead on that trade. I agree that Benjamin hasn't shown much as a replacement yet, and always seems to be dinged up. Familiarity trades by new coaches are always a bit questionable IMO, especially in the case of a player that doesn't help the team learn a new system like a midseason WR acquisition.

I would've kept Tyrod for this coming season as I didn't think the Bills could get a draft pick out of him via trade. To replace him with a cheap McCarron and get a 3rd round pick puts the Bills ahead IMO. I just hope the Bills choose wisely in terms of QB in this draft, as I don't think they'll get the opportunity for Darnold or Rosen. Shaky odds on the others IMO.

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

Do you really think Sammy would still be here? He jumped ship on the Rams for more money (and reportedly the offers weren't that far apart). Bills got a 2nd round pick out losing him, while the Rams had to use a 1st rounder to replace him. Bills are far ahead on that trade. I agree that Benjamin hasn't shown much as a replacement yet, and always seems to be dinged up. Familiarity trades by new coaches are always a bit questionable IMO, especially in the case of a player that doesn't help the team learn a new system like a midseason WR acquisition.

I would've kept Tyrod for this coming season as I didn't think the Bills could get a draft pick out of him via trade. To replace him with a cheap McCarron and get a 3rd round pick puts the Bills ahead IMO. I just hope the Bills choose wisely in terms of QB in this draft, as I don't think they'll get the opportunity for Darnold or Rosen. Shaky odds on the others IMO.

Even if we did keep Sammy we would have lost him for nothing this year because we definitely could not afford the contract KC offered him